Could Assad Win?

[DogDoo 7]

If Assad win's, he'll have a country that's been wrecked by civil war and an army that's exhuasted. He'll be treading very carefully for the next decade or two.

The Israeli defense establishment thinks differently.

[Al-Quarra]

If Assad wins and initiates a bloody purge, I wonder how many here would celebrate?

Might be marginally better than the Islamists winning and AQ convincing them to start pesecuting the minorities and taking a aggressive stance on Isreal. Do we really need another Iran sitting on Isreals border?

You mean Saudi-Arabia instead of Iran...

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Assad has played his cards very well. He may indeed make it.
With the victory at Qusayr and decisive intervention of Nasrallah the battle for the South is drawing to a close, but Assad must still reassert his authority across the vast North.
The North is harsh, and filled with seasoned opponents including jihadists. Thus it will be sometime before our Lion of Syria can win outright.

[Machtergreifung]

Might be marginally better than the Islamists winning and AQ convincing them to start pesecuting the minorities and taking a aggressive stance on Isreal. Do we really need another Iran sitting on Isreals border?

1) Iran doesn't border Israel
2) ASSAD is the one allied with Iran. Not the FSA/Al-Nusra.

1) Iran had it's whole revolution with the downfall of the Shah. Not that Iran = Syria today of course. Not going to be a good thing regardless. Even less good if the stance towards Isreal takes a real nosedive.
2) The question then is it out of need, or a longer term plan?

If Assad win's, he'll have a country that's been wrecked by civil war and an army that's exhuasted. He'll be treading very carefully for the next decade or two.

The Israeli defense establishment thinks differently.

Even assuming he starts rebuilding from day one, it's not going to exactly be a quick turnaround for the offical Syrian Army.

[Rio Cana]

Found this news item from this month which talks about NATO studying some data which is showing that 70% of the Syrians support the Syrian President while 20% are neutral, leaving 10% supporting the rebels.

Article - http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/05/31/ ... and-minds/

[New Aerios]

Found this news item from this month which talks about data gathered by NATO is showing that 70% of the Syrians support the Syrian President while 20% are neutral, leaving 10% supporting the rebels.

Article - http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/05/31/ ... and-minds/

In which case, I bloody well hope Assad can win this one. If he's the guy the people want in charge, he should be in charge. Plus, while he may apparently be a "tyrannical anti-western dictator", his regime is secular, as opposed to the radical muslim regime which the rebels want to enforce, which would basically lead to a country run by Al-Qaeda.

[Imperial Nilfgaard]

Found this news item from this month which talks about NATO studying some data which is showing that 70% of the Syrians support the Syrian President while 20% are neutral, leaving 10% supporting the rebels.

Article - http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/05/31/ ... and-minds/

While Assad certainly has alot of organic support, especially amongst more secular urbanites and minorities, I doubt any polling could really be accurate considering the current state of the country (if you can even still call it that).

[Bales Rant]

Found this news item from this month which talks about data gathered by NATO is showing that 70% of the Syrians support the Syrian President while 20% are neutral, leaving 10% supporting the rebels.

Article - http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/05/31/ ... and-minds/

In which case, I bloody well hope Assad can win this one. If he's the guy the people want in charge, he should be in charge. Plus, while he may apparently be a "tyrannical anti-western dictator", his regime is secular, as opposed to the radical muslim regime which the rebels want to enforce, which would basically lead to a country run by Al-Qaeda.

The sources said no formal polling was taken in Syria

I'm not surprised since it's a bad time to be doing credible polling: civil war, 80,000 people dead, 1 million Syrians internally displaced, over 1.4 millions Syrians living in refugee camps in foreign countries.

[Ralkovia]

In which case, I bloody well hope Assad can win this one. If he's the guy the people want in charge, he should be in charge. Plus, while he may apparently be a "tyrannical anti-western dictator", his regime is secular, as opposed to the radical muslim regime which the rebels want to enforce, which would basically lead to a country run by Al-Qaeda.

The sources said no formal polling was taken in Syria

I'm not surprised since it's a bad time to be doing credible polling: civil war, 80,000 people dead, 1 million Syrians internally displaced, over 1.4 millions Syrians living in refugee camps in foreign countries.

Is it bad that this entire scenario played out in my mind.

In the middle of a battlefield

*Knock* *Knock*

Syrian in house: (whispering)"I think it's the Assad's soldiers, honey, put out the Syrian Army Banner..."

Other Syrian: (whispering)"What if it's rebel soldiers..."

*knock* *knock*

Syrian: Allah please protect us (Opens door)

Middle aged white guy enters with a survey form.

"Hi, I'm Dan from Surveysays, these are my Assad body guards, we were in the neighborhood and I was just wondering if you support Assad, the rebels, or were neutral?"

[Xanixi]

I'm not surprised since it's a bad time to be doing credible polling: civil war, 80,000 people dead, 1 million Syrians internally displaced, over 1.4 millions Syrians living in refugee camps in foreign countries.

Is it bad that this entire scenario played out in my mind.

In the middle of a battlefield

*Knock* *Knock*

Syrian in house: (whispering)"I think it's the Assad's soldiers, honey, put out the Syrian Army Banner..."

Other Syrian: (whispering)"What if it's rebel soldiers..."

*knock* *knock*

Syrian: Allah please protect us (Opens door)

Middle aged white guy enters with a survey form.

"Hi, I'm Dan from Surveysays, these are my Assad body guards, we were in the neighborhood and I was just wondering if you support Assad, the rebels, or were neutral?"

Thanks for the sig quote, bro.

[Pope Joan]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

[Agritum]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

[Dooom35796821595]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

and the US will just sit back?

[Pope Joan]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

and the US will just sit back?

We are already deeply engaged. And if we do respond, so will Hezbollah's backer, Iran. Then all hell really WILL break out.

[Dooom35796821595]

and the US will just sit back?

We are already deeply engaged. And if we do respond, so will Hezbollah's backer, Iran. Then all hell really WILL break out.

May sound harsh, but its better for all if we allow it to continue without foreign intervention.

Its a damned if we do, damned if we don't, but at least if we do nothing there can be no active criticism as others are controlling the outcome. (blame Russia)

[Al-Quarra]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

and the US will just sit back?

What could they do, any move will trigger the whole region into a war?

[The Steel Magnolia]

Assad is the only hope for the Christians and Shiites. Otherwise, the Al Qaeda insurgents we are backing will annihilate them.

So I certainly hope he does win.

And if Israel attacks Russian convoys, I hope Russia strikes Tel Aviv.

and the US will just sit back?

The U.S. really needs to stay out of this one. Literally none of their foreign policy goals will be met by intervening.

[Al-Quarra]

We are already deeply engaged. And if we do respond, so will Hezbollah's backer, Iran. Then all hell really WILL break out.

May sound harsh, but its better for all if we allow it to continue without foreign intervention.

Its a damned if we do, damned if we don't, but at least if we do nothing there can be no active criticism as others are controlling the outcome. (blame Russia)

"damned if we don't"

Why?

[Al-Quarra]

and the US will just sit back?

The U.S. really needs to stay out of this one. Literally none of their foreign policy goals will be met by intervening.

Like Iraq?

[The Steel Magnolia]

The U.S. really needs to stay out of this one. Literally none of their foreign policy goals will be met by intervening.

Like Iraq?

Iraq was a miserable failure and a terrible idea on many, many levels. You won't catch me supporting it.

[Dooom35796821595]

May sound harsh, but its better for all if we allow it to continue without foreign intervention.

Its a damned if we do, damned if we don't, but at least if we do nothing there can be no active criticism as others are controlling the outcome. (blame Russia)

"damned if we don't"

Why?

Because win or lose the rebels/insurgency will blame us for not assisting them.

[Al-Quarra]

"damned if we don't"

Why?

Because win or lose the rebels/insurgency will blame us for not assisting them.

Aha like that.

[Al-Quarra]

Like Iraq?

Iraq was a miserable failure and a terrible idea on many, many levels. You won't catch me supporting it.

So it would be just like Iraq;)

[The Steel Magnolia]

Iraq was a miserable failure and a terrible idea on many, many levels. You won't catch me supporting it.

So it would be just like Iraq;)

Not just like Iraq, the presence of a powerful insurgency would shake things up on many levels. It'd still be an unmitigated disaster however.

[Hypparchia]

Yes, and hopefully soon.

As for Hezbollah, its role is exaggerated - its current contingent in Syria is much smaller than a single division, and the Syrian army still has at least a dozen divisions all over the country. Nasrallah's men are in this for three reasons: one, gain much needed combat experience in urban warfare; two, use their help as a bargaining chip to receive weapons from Syria later; and three, keep one of the most valuable components of the Shiite axis intact.

Also, most people around here don't make a difference between Islamist and fundamentalist. Islamism is the use of religion to achieve political goals, like Hezbollah does it. Fundamentalism is when religion is applied in a totalitarian manner, like AQ and Saudi Arabia do it by chopping heads and limbs for blasphemy and witchcraft. The war here is between the secular Assad government and a single Islamist ally (Hezbollah), and an overwhelmingly Islamist rebellion with fundamentalist allies (an-Nusra). I don't think it's difficult for any reasonable person to decide which one is the lesser of two evils.