Who will be superpowers in 2050?

[SaintB]

Once China figure out how to make factory-making factories, it'll all be over.

It will be an American innovation, and then they will build the first one in China: it will be fully automated.

[Caninope]

Not only that, but China's economic growth has largely been built upon growth in exports, and China is quickly beginning to understand the idea of diminishing marginal returns. For China's economic growth to continue at anywhere near it's current rate, it would have to shift from the high saving that characterizes the population to consumption.

By the logic of saying that only GDP per capita counts, if China had the same GDP per capita as the US for its 1.3 billion people, it would only be equal to the US in terms of economic power (when it would have a GDP of about 52 trillion, almost equal to that of the entire world's economic output.) Population can be just as vital in terms of economic power as is the productivity of any given resident of the state.

Shifting from high saving to consumption isn't going to work with China; it needs savings in order to sustain its very high level of investment. Unlike the US, which can spend like a drunken sailor by taking debt from other countries, there is no one that China can really turn to for credit; it will most likely have to support its projects from its own savings rate as opposed to another nation's.

And therein lies the problem. China can only sustain its growth if it shifts to consumption. China's high growth in exports has a diminishing rate of return; continued exports are driving wages up. This will lead to increases in the price level, which will begin driving Chinese exports up in price. This will be further exacerbated by increased pressure on the Chinese to stop devaluing the currency and by the near inevitable revolution of rising expectations.

In addition, I don't consider military power as relevant as it might have been 100 or so years ago for a great power. The US, for all its high tech gadgets, can only win in a conventional war; once it has to fight an enemy that is unwilling to play by the rules, in Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq, it gets bogged down and unable to seize what it wants (hence why, once the US left Iraq, Iraq's best contracts for oil went to China instead of the US.) Also, the US's reliance on its military might be a weakness, rather than a strength; the US is still bellowing and threatening to beat up Iran several decades after the Revolution, thinking that it can intimidate concessions out of Iran (to no effect.) But meanwhile, China and Russia are happy to make contracts for oil and gas with Iran for their own economies while the United States is left out in the cold. Same thing could be said in Africa, where China is greatly expanding its access to African resources in a relatively peaceful manner.

A conventionally power military is necessary for any superpower. A superpower has to have the capability of becoming a hegemon, and a hegemon has to be able to enforce some sort of order upon the international system, which is only possible with a huge military presence. The world international economic order is built upon a free trade made possible by the US Navy's enforced freedom of the seas.

Considering what the US has done in terms of its central bank and currency policies (For instance, the state of the monetary base and the Federal reserve's balance sheet, issues which have yet to fully rear their head)

Explain.

[Altito Asmoro]

Unless Indonesia get rid of the corruption and updating the military, they won't be regional-power for a while.

Germany should get out from EU if they want to be economically strong.

[Grand Britannia]

Unless Indonesia get rid of the corruption and updating the military, they won't be regional-power for a while.

Germany should get out from EU if they want to be economically strong.

Merkelreich knows what it's doing.

[Geilinor]

US, China, India, and Brazil.

[Altito Asmoro]

US, China, India, and Brazil.

China has their bad One Child Policy.

[Geilinor]

US, China, India, and Brazil.

China has their bad One Child Policy.

They'll have to remove it one day, when the inevitable demographic bomb falls.

[Othelos]

China has their bad One Child Policy.

They'll have to remove it one day, when the inevitable demographic bomb falls.

It won't make up for it.

Once a society reduces the number of children an average family has, ideal family size follows, because people get used to the small family size (whether as parents or as a child who grew up in a small family). For example, in Shanghai, a study of 38,000 men and women aged 20-45 found that the ideal number of children was 1.07.

China's basically doomed, even if the one child policy is ended.

[Caninope]

US, China, India, and Brazil.

No one has yet been able to identify how Brazil will become a superpower in the next 37 years. I can see them becoming a regional or great power, but there's this giant "Brazil will be a superpower" bandwagon that makes no sense going on.

[The Steel Magnolia]

US, China, India, and Brazil.

No one has yet been able to identify how Brazil will become a superpower in the next 37 years. I can see them becoming a regional or great power, but there's this giant "Brazil will be a superpower" bandwagon that makes no sense going on.

Probably because they're mixing the terms up.

[Geilinor]

US, China, India, and Brazil.

No one has yet been able to identify how Brazil will become a superpower in the next 37 years. I can see them becoming a regional or great power, but there's this giant "Brazil will be a superpower" bandwagon that makes no sense going on.

People are trying to come up with a fourth, but there aren't too many options. I can't see how Indonesia is going to become any more powerful. US, China, and India are the only real choices.

[Divided America]

America

[Caninope]

No one has yet been able to identify how Brazil will become a superpower in the next 37 years. I can see them becoming a regional or great power, but there's this giant "Brazil will be a superpower" bandwagon that makes no sense going on.

People are trying to come up with a fourth, but there aren't too many options. I can't see how Indonesia is going to become any more powerful. US, China, and India are the only real choices.

There can't be four superpowers. The idea of three superpowers is arguable, at best.

[Othelos]

US, China, India, and Brazil.

No one has yet been able to identify how Brazil will become a superpower in the next 37 years. I can see them becoming a regional or great power, but there's this giant "Brazil will be a superpower" bandwagon that makes no sense going on.

Brazil has demographic problems, too. Its population is predicted to start declining between 2040 and 2045, so it's doubtful they'll achieve superpower status.

[Shrillland]

US, China, India, and Brazil.

No one has yet been able to identify how Brazil will become a superpower in the next 37 years. I can see them becoming a regional or great power, but there's this giant "Brazil will be a superpower" bandwagon that makes no sense going on.

No, Brazil won't become a superpower, and the big reasons are their military isn't strong enough, nor do they possess nuclear weapons, which I consider to be one of the criteria for the title.

[The American Nuclear Fallout Zone]

Germany will create an army of mechs and supersoldiers and succeed in taking over the world for once.

[The Fair Republic]

China, Germany and maybe the U.S

[New Sapienta]

The US will at worst become a Great Power, but it will likely stay super into the 2050s.

If the EU unites, it could easily become one.

If China does collapse from the future problems its going to face, it could too.

India has potential if keeps the corruption down.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

Canada ftw

[Meskeland]

Hopefully... a nation from another planet will lead us. Or destroy us and colonize. Either way, here's to the future.

[The Fair Republic]

No one has yet been able to identify how Brazil will become a superpower in the next 37 years. I can see them becoming a regional or great power, but there's this giant "Brazil will be a superpower" bandwagon that makes no sense going on.

No, Brazil won't become a superpower, and the big reasons are their military isn't strong enough, nor do they possess nuclear weapons, which I consider to be one of the criteria for the title.

Germany doesn't have nukes and Merkel the the 2nd most powerful person in the world in my opinion

[New Sapienta]

No, Brazil won't become a superpower, and the big reasons are their military isn't strong enough, nor do they possess nuclear weapons, which I consider to be one of the criteria for the title.

Germany doesn't have nukes and Merkel the the 2nd most powerful person in the world in my opinion

China and Russia are still more important than Germany is.

If Russia falls(which is a possibility) or China falls(less likely) then Germany will be more powerful.

And you can't really have a stand off with a nuclear power and win.

[The Fair Republic]

Germany doesn't have nukes and Merkel the the 2nd most powerful person in the world in my opinion

China and Russia are still more important than Germany is.

If Russia falls(which is a possibility) or China falls(less likely) then Germany will be more powerful.

And you can't really have a stand off with a nuclear power and win.

yeah but germany has the most economic power you know holding the EU together

[Caninope]

No, Brazil won't become a superpower, and the big reasons are their military isn't strong enough, nor do they possess nuclear weapons, which I consider to be one of the criteria for the title.

Germany doesn't have nukes and Merkel the the 2nd most powerful person in the world in my opinion

2nd most powerful person? Dear Lord no.

[Caninope]

China and Russia are still more important than Germany is.

If Russia falls(which is a possibility) or China falls(less likely) then Germany will be more powerful.

And you can't really have a stand off with a nuclear power and win.

yeah but germany has the most economic power you know holding the EU together

Germany's economic status is still only that of a great power, not a superpower.