Who will be superpowers in 2050?

[Altito Asmoro]

At this rate?China. BUT if Japan put all its effort into weapons technologies they would quickly develop nuclear capabilities, have the best weapons in the world, and most likely utterly crush anyone in their way.

God dammit, Article 9.

That and their pacifism.

[Immoren]

Finland will finally take its rightful place among list of superpowers.

[Altito Asmoro]

Finland will finally take its rightful place among list of superpowers.

Right.

[Oceasia]

China?

[Altito Asmoro]

China?

Great Power, not Super Power.

[Oceasia]

China?

Great Power, not Super Power.

Then who is superpower?

[Immoren]

Finland will finally take its rightful place among list of superpowers.

Right.

You'll see it when we acquire ballistic missiles, and arm them with MIRVs full of Nokia 3310/3330! D:<

[Altito Asmoro]

Great Power, not Super Power.

Then who is superpower?

Maybe no one. USA will probably become Great Power on 2050.

Right.

You'll see it when we acquire ballistic missiles, and arm them with MIRVs full of Nokia 3310/3330! D:<

[Oceasia]

Then who is superpower?

Maybe no one. USA will probably become Great Power on 2050.

You'll see it when we acquire ballistic missiles, and arm them with MIRVs full of Nokia 3310/3330! D:<

Okay, who will be CLOSEST to be superpower by 2050?

[Xanixi]

FRANCE

Not sure who "FRCE" is.

Sounds like a Merkelreich province.

Crap.
I thought it was a Swiss/CERN province.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Maybe no one. USA will probably become Great Power on 2050.

Okay, who will be CLOSEST to be superpower by 2050?

Malta.

[Thrinia]

The Vatican.

[Altito Asmoro]

Maybe no one. USA will probably become Great Power on 2050.

Okay, who will be CLOSEST to be superpower by 2050?

China is the only one, but with their One Child Policy, they can't be.

[Hellandi]

Liechtenstein, Finland , Scotland and Iceland
*nods*

[Oceasia]

India

[The Fifth Dominion]

Your definition doesn't describe a superpower, it describes a great power. A superpower is a state with a dominant position in the international system which has the ability to influence events and its own interests and project power on a worldwide scale to protect those interests. A superpower is traditionally considered to be a step higher than a great power.

The definition of superpower requires it to be a very small, exclusive club. And it's increasingly irrelevant in the modern world, because the world is becoming much more multipolar,

For another nation to become a superpower, it can't just be a powerful economic, political and military force. It has to be able to project power globally, and be able to reasonably challenge its rivals to become the global hegemon. The US is the benchmark for superpowerdom, and look at all the things that the US has that you're unlikely to see another nation try to replicate: a gigantic navy with bases around the world, a gigantic army capable of deploying around the world, a gigantic air force, capable of strategic power projection, a massive nuclear arsenal, and a massive population with a modern first world industrial and scientific economy.

The only nations that have any hope of rivaling the United States are China and India. And they've still got a long way to go, and thus far have shown no desire to be a super power.

Precisely this. There is a reason that there were only TWO superpowers back in the day. And now one of them has fallen apart completely and is non-existant (which had the side effect of a unipolar world where the US is supreme - the world lost the careful balance of power). A superpower must be able to extend its reach across the globe (i.e. The US's Multiple Goddamn Fleets which are EVERYWHERE, as well as the military bases which it has EVERYWHERE), and also have the strength to hold on to those.

China is a contender, but power projection will be a problem. You see, they have the resources and facilities to construct globe spanning fleets, but they don't build them. Instead they pour their budget into their beloved army - should these funds be redirected, I doubt the regime would survive the results of the sudden lack of repression.

[Xanixi]

God dammit, Article 9.

That and their pacifism.

I wouldn't know. To be honest, I know little about Japan's military force or its policies, other than I hear its formidable.

China?

One day, I'm going to return to this thread and I'm going to count how many people have said China.
And then, I'm going to count how many people have told them that it's unlikely.

Then who is superpower?

Maybe no one. USA will probably become Great Power on 2050.

I find that unlikely. Lest there be a complete reset in the government of the United States, its superpower status is likely to remain for a very long time.

Because fuck, seventy years isn't enough!

Maybe no one. USA will probably become Great Power on 2050.

Okay, who will be CLOSEST to be superpower by 2050?

I can see the world being bipolar, to be honest. Not entirely certain who that other power is going to be (unless the EU federates, which I don't find likely), but I find it plausible for there to be two.

For fucks' sake, America needs to go back to those times when we feared nuclear explosions and strikes so much we ran into the factories to create weapons of war so that the guys who attacked us would get their fair share!

/sarcasm

[Altito Asmoro]

Your definition doesn't describe a superpower, it describes a great power. A superpower is a state with a dominant position in the international system which has the ability to influence events and its own interests and project power on a worldwide scale to protect those interests. A superpower is traditionally considered to be a step higher than a great power.

The definition of superpower requires it to be a very small, exclusive club. And it's increasingly irrelevant in the modern world, because the world is becoming much more multipolar,

For another nation to become a superpower, it can't just be a powerful economic, political and military force. It has to be able to project power globally, and be able to reasonably challenge its rivals to become the global hegemon. The US is the benchmark for superpowerdom, and look at all the things that the US has that you're unlikely to see another nation try to replicate: a gigantic navy with bases around the world, a gigantic army capable of deploying around the world, a gigantic air force, capable of strategic power projection, a massive nuclear arsenal, and a massive population with a modern first world industrial and scientific economy.

The only nations that have any hope of rivaling the United States are China and India. And they've still got a long way to go, and thus far have shown no desire to be a super power.

Precisely this. There is a reason that there were only TWO superpowers back in the day. And now one of them has fallen apart completely. A superpower must be able to extend its reach across the globe (i.e. The US's Multiple Goddamn Fleets which are EVERYWHERE, as well as the military bases which it has EVERYWHERE)

Russia has base in Syria.

[Regnum Dominae]

http://i44.tinypic.com/8y5dzn.png

5 Years into the Great Hentai War, the pro-hentai forces have gained back much of the territory lost in the Bible Offensive early in the war that caused the anti-hentai alliance to gain control of all territory except for Japan and Europe. The prude forces are facing mass defections to the PFPTS after the AEHP troops experience the joy of hentai for the first time in PFPTS propaganda.

Blue = Popular Front for the Propagation of Tentacles and Schoolgirls
Red = Alliance for the Elimination of Hentai Perversion
Gold = North Korea, STILL a totalitarian dictatorship
Green = greatest country in the world. all other country are run by little girls

[Xanixi]

Precisely this. There is a reason that there were only TWO superpowers back in the day. And now one of them has fallen apart completely. A superpower must be able to extend its reach across the globe (i.e. The US's Multiple Goddamn Fleets which are EVERYWHERE, as well as the military bases which it has EVERYWHERE)

Russia has base in Syria.

Just about everyone has bases somewhere.

But no one has quite as many bases everywhere as the United States.
Lol@old NATO stuff

[Calimera II]

With the horrible corrupt system and low economic gorwth india has, it will NOT become a superpower.

[Slembana]

Scotland, Fiji, Sealand, Kenya, and San Marino.

[Shrillland]

By then the age of only a couple of superpowers will be over, indeed it is already reaching its end. The largest will be the United States of America, the United States of Europe and China. As one of the early posts here said, we are in many ways entering the new age of empires.

[The Whispers]

By then the age of only a couple of superpowers will be over, indeed it is already reaching its end.

No doubt they were saying this in 350AD.

[Seleucas]

It is not even close. A superpower doesn't just have a strong economy (incidentally China's GDP per capita is still very low), it is able to project power in multiple theatres and eclipses its rivals in terms of military capacity and influence. Only the U.S fits that description currently.

I mean, China had a higher GDP than Europe back in the 1820s but...in terms of power, they had far, far less of it. Indeed they were on the precipice of being subject to all sorts of imperial machinations by the Europans powers at that point. You are not using good metrics.

Not only that, but China's economic growth has largely been built upon growth in exports, and China is quickly beginning to understand the idea of diminishing marginal returns. For China's economic growth to continue at anywhere near it's current rate, it would have to shift from the high saving that characterizes the population to consumption.

By the logic of saying that only GDP per capita counts, if China had the same GDP per capita as the US for its 1.3 billion people, it would only be equal to the US in terms of economic power (when it would have a GDP of about 52 trillion, almost equal to that of the entire world's economic output.) Population can be just as vital in terms of economic power as is the productivity of any given resident of the state.

Shifting from high saving to consumption isn't going to work with China; it needs savings in order to sustain its very high level of investment. Unlike the US, which can spend like a drunken sailor by taking debt from other countries, there is no one that China can really turn to for credit; it will most likely have to support its projects from its own savings rate as opposed to another nation's.

In addition, I don't consider military power as relevant as it might have been 100 or so years ago for a great power. The US, for all its high tech gadgets, can only win in a conventional war; once it has to fight an enemy that is unwilling to play by the rules, in Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq, it gets bogged down and unable to seize what it wants (hence why, once the US left Iraq, Iraq's best contracts for oil went to China instead of the US.) Also, the US's reliance on its military might be a weakness, rather than a strength; the US is still bellowing and threatening to beat up Iran several decades after the Revolution, thinking that it can intimidate concessions out of Iran (to no effect.) But meanwhile, China and Russia are happy to make contracts for oil and gas with Iran for their own economies while the United States is left out in the cold. Same thing could be said in Africa, where China is greatly expanding its access to African resources in a relatively peaceful manner.

Considering what the US has done in terms of its central bank and currency policies (For instance, the state of the monetary base and the Federal reserve's balance sheet, issues which have yet to fully rear their head), its overdependence on its military, and belligerent mindset, as opposed to China's willingness to restrain itself and make deals peaceably, I would say that China has a decent shot of becoming a superpower in the relatively short term while the United States is very likely to lose its place soon.