Who will be superpowers in 2050?

[Caninope]

China has 80% of the US's GDP, in terms of purchasing power parity. Didn't say it was a superpower, but it's pretty close.

It is not even close. A superpower doesn't just have a strong economy (incidentally China's GDP per capita is still very low), it is able to project power in multiple theatres and eclipses its rivals in terms of military capacity and influence. Only the U.S fits that description currently.

I mean, China had a higher GDP than Europe back in the 1820s but...in terms of power, they had far, far less of it. Indeed they were on the precipice of being subject to all sorts of imperial machinations by the Europans powers at that point. You are not using good metrics.

Not only that, but China's economic growth has largely been built upon growth in exports, and China is quickly beginning to understand the idea of diminishing marginal returns. For China's economic growth to continue at anywhere near it's current rate, it would have to shift from the high saving that characterizes the population to consumption.

[Harrinton]

At this rate?China. BUT if Japan put all its effort into weapons technologies they would quickly develop nuclear capabilities, have the best weapons in the world, and most likely utterly crush anyone in their way.

Japan lacks the will and the resources to become a superpower.

Uhhh, what?

[Caninope]

The EU should be on the poll.

No.

There needs to be some serious changes in Europe before the EU can even think about being called a superpower.

[Releign]

I heard someone say that that Meteor that crashed in Russia was worth more than GOLD per ounce. They might rise and hold on to it, but knowing them they will just use it to buy weapons and Blitzkrieg America.
German word for a Russian attack, I know, I know.

[Caninope]

Japan lacks the will and the resources to become a superpower.

Uhhh, what?

What do you mean, "what"?

I mean exactly what I said. Japan lacks the will and resources to become a superpower. A superpower is a dominant state within the international system, something that Japan can never hope to become. The US is the world's only current superpower, and it has created a string of military bases and a security community in the West and East Asia/Oceania unrivaled in history. Even assuming the US were to look the other way as a potential competitor begins courting the necessary diplomatic influence and arms buildup to guarantee itself a dominant place in the international system, Japan could not do it.

Japan has a shrinking and aging population, with an expected population of 95 million people in 2050, down from 127 million today. Not only that, approximately 40% of the population is projected to be over age 65, up from 22.7% in 2009. Japan doesn't have the necessary population to sustain a global military network, and for that matter, it won't have the financial resources. Japan's demographic crisis is going to create major problems, particularly in government and business expenditures as retirement, pensions, etc. eat up increasing amounts of money with ever less workers to support the retirees. Think of the impending Social Security crisis here in the States, on steroids.

Besides that, Japan lacks other resources necessary to be a superpower. Japan is notoriously resource poor; that was part of the impetus of Imperial Japan's aggressive expansion. While a superpower need not be resource rich in every possible thing that can be pulled from the ground, it certainly doesn't hurt to access to resources, particularly if military expansion is a necessary part of the strategy. Japan doesn't just suffer from a lack of natural resources; it suffers from a lack of human resources. Japan, if undergoing military expansion to be a superpower, would no doubt attempt to become a major sea-faring navy, and (when it comes down to it) no one really knows how to build a supercarrier outside of the US Navy and Norfolk News. The US has, by far, the world's greatest navy and any nation attempting to become a superpower will have to overcome that steep learning curve.

Finally, Japan lacks the will. It might be that Japan has created a domestic norm of peace; after all, the idea of changing the JSDF into an offensive force meets heavy opposition. It might be that Japan is a democracy, and democracies don't go to war with each other (democratic peace theory). Or it might just be that Japan is happy playing along with a stronger power, and it's lot with the US right now isn't bad. Whatever it is, Japan has expressed no interest in becoming a superpower.

[Corrance]

FRANCE

Not sure who "FRCE" is.

Sounds like a Merkelreich province.

Sorry France. The white RA is not see able.

[Oceasia]

You guys should return to the topic at hand.

RIGHT.

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Indonesia will not most likely be a global superpower, but probably will be an energy superpower in 2050.

What energy superpower?

[Altito Asmoro]

RIGHT.

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Indonesia will not most likely be a global superpower, but probably will be an energy superpower in 2050.

What energy superpower?

Like Russia or Brazil. Has a lot of energy resources.

[The New Sea Territory]

What energy superpower?

Like Russia or Brazil. Has a lot of energy resources.

If the Middle East could get under one Islamic Banner, they would have an economic war with Russia and America. China could get involved....

[Altito Asmoro]

Like Russia or Brazil. Has a lot of energy resources.

If the Middle East could get under one Islamic Banner, they would have an economic war with Russia and America. China could get involved....

And India too.

[Greater Beggnig]

Trust Americans to think they'll still be a superpower in 37 years, regardless of the amount of money they are borrowing from China to support their right-wing empire. American foreign policy needs some serious re-thinking if they still want to exist then. Asia is the future area for superpowers. China, India, Indonesia, Japan, North and South Korea, will be the most powerful nations by 2050, judging by current trends.

[Altito Asmoro]

Trust Americans to think they'll still be a superpower in 37 years, regardless of the amount of money they are borrowing from China to support their right-wing empire. American foreign policy needs some serious re-thinking if they still want to exist then. Asia is the future area for superpowers. China, India, Indonesia, Japan, North and South Korea, will be the most powerful nations by 2050, judging by current trends.

North?

[Greater Beggnig]

Trust Americans to think they'll still be a superpower in 37 years, regardless of the amount of money they are borrowing from China to support their right-wing empire. American foreign policy needs some serious re-thinking if they still want to exist then. Asia is the future area for superpowers. China, India, Indonesia, Japan, North and South Korea, will be the most powerful nations by 2050, judging by current trends.

North?

Maybe not the North. Don't worry, I'm not a sympathizer, I'd like to see Kim Fatty dead as much as anyone else.

[Altito Asmoro]

North?

Maybe not the North. Don't worry, I'm not a sympathizer, I'd like to see Kim Fatty dead as much as anyone else.

Do you compare North with Indonesia? At least Indonesia is better. In welfare and economy.

[Greater Beggnig]

Maybe not the North. Don't worry, I'm not a sympathizer, I'd like to see Kim Fatty dead as much as anyone else.

Do you compare North with Indonesia? At least Indonesia is better. In welfare and economy.

I'm glad Indonesia changed from how it was. It seemed like they were going to screw Australia over one of those days. Having a Dictatorial Islamic Nation of over 100 million people nearby was a real worry in the 90's.

[Altito Asmoro]

Do you compare North with Indonesia? At least Indonesia is better. In welfare and economy.

I'm glad Indonesia changed from how it was. It seemed like they were going to screw Australia over one of those days. Having a Dictatorial Islamic Nation of over 100 million people nearby was a real worry in the 90's.

It was fine.

[Lahuland]

China will be the superpower. Meanwhile, the USA will become an ally of China.

[Greater Beggnig]

I'm glad Indonesia changed from how it was. It seemed like they were going to screw Australia over one of those days. Having a Dictatorial Islamic Nation of over 100 million people nearby was a real worry in the 90's.

It was fine.

It wasn't, but whatever.

[Greater Beggnig]

China will be the superpower. Meanwhile, the USA will become an ally of China.

Surely America wouldn't side with China? Unless the CCP lost control. If China was Democratic and Capitalist, and cut all its ties with Russia, then maybe, but otherwise, no.

[Altito Asmoro]

China will be the superpower. Meanwhile, the USA will become an ally of China.

No

[Greater Beggnig]

China will be the superpower. Meanwhile, the USA will become an ally of China.

No

Maybe, but only in the scenario I described.

[Altito Asmoro]

No

Maybe, but only in the scenario I described.

Not in trading alliance. Not in military alliance. Well, maybe they will be if an alien invades Earth.

[Lahuland]

China will be the superpower. Meanwhile, the USA will become an ally of China.

Surely America wouldn't side with China? Unless the CCP lost control. If China was Democratic and Capitalist, and cut all its ties with Russia, then maybe, but otherwise, no.

Chinese economic system is walking to Capitalism. The USA also needs China to persuade North Korea not to nuke the USA. The 2 nations have powerful military forces and strong economy.

[Altito Asmoro]

Surely America wouldn't side with China? Unless the CCP lost control. If China was Democratic and Capitalist, and cut all its ties with Russia, then maybe, but otherwise, no.

Chinese economic system is walking to Capitalism. The USA also needs China to persuade North Korea not to nuke the USA. The 2 nations have powerful military forces and strong economy.

Capitalism give the way to Democracy, something that the CCP hates. They only have partial part of the democracy to show to their people that they are slowly turn into a free nation.

[Caninope]

Trust Americans to think they'll still be a superpower in 37 years, regardless of the amount of money they are borrowing from China to support their right-wing empire. American foreign policy needs some serious re-thinking if they still want to exist then. Asia is the future area for superpowers. China, India, Indonesia, Japan, North and South Korea, will be the most powerful nations by 2050, judging by current trends.

America as a world power isn't going anywhere for a plethora of reasons.