Who will be superpowers in 2050?

[Disserbia]

Really?

The two stronger states will likely play the smallest of the three against each other until it is eventually destroyed, assimilated or otherwise somehow "loses" Superpower status.

If the whole point of being a Superpower is dominance, a triumvate merely adds a competitor who could ally with your existing competition.

The threshold of 3 seems a little arbitrary and is only like that because after three the world is considered multipolar, but I don't understand why there could not be more than 3 superpowers as per the definition of a superpower. Also isn't the EU the worlds largest economy?

[Disserbia]

China is rising. They already own our asses and are sucking the resources in Africa dry. As time passes and America and the world continues to buy from them, they can only get more powerful.

No. Try again later.

He's right about Africa though. Africa is the next theatre to compete on coincidentally

[Conscentia]

No. Try again later.

He's right about Africa though. Africa is the next theatre to compete on coincidentally

Next theatre? It's been the theatre of competition since the 1800s, with a comparatively brief interlude during the Cold War.

[Third Mexican Empire]

The US

[Caninope]

The two stronger states will likely play the smallest of the three against each other until it is eventually destroyed, assimilated or otherwise somehow "loses" Superpower status.

If the whole point of being a Superpower is dominance, a triumvate merely adds a competitor who could ally with your existing competition.

The threshold of 3 seems a little arbitrary and is only like that because after three the world is considered multipolar, but I don't understand why there could not be more than 3 superpowers as per the definition of a superpower. Also isn't the EU the worlds largest economy?

The definition of a superpower is a state that is dominant in the international system, with the ability to take on the role of world hegemon, the defining authority of the international system (roughly similar to the US today although, in theory, a hegemon would exert even more power; nonetheless, the US is the closest the world has ever seen to a true hegemon, IMO). A great power is a state that is influential. If there are too many states of roughly equal power, they are no longer dominant, in which case, they are all simply influential as opposed to dominant. The definition of superpower is a relative definition. There is no absolute measure of a superpower, as it is all in relation to other powers (although the relative definition of a superpower does imply certain absolute qualities of a superpower, most notable force projection). If there are too many "superpowers", then no one is a superpower in the same way that Albert Einstein is no longer exceptional if the world population only consisted of him, Newton, Galileo, John Maynard Keynes, and other influential thinkers/geniuses.

EDIT: Perhaps 3 does seem a little arbitrary, but four and five power systems are considered to be the classic multipolar great power systems. I would argue that 3 superpower systems are uncommon and far more unlikely than bipolar and unipolar superpower systems, and tripolar systems would decay into bipolar or unipolar systems.

[Caninope]

No. Try again later.

He's right about Africa though. Africa is the next theatre to compete on coincidentally

Possibly. The fate of Africa is still, as of yet, unwritten.

[Disserbia]

He's right about Africa though. Africa is the next theatre to compete on coincidentally

Next theatre? It's been the theatre of competition since the 1800s, with a comparatively brief interlude during the Cold War.

In the way of resources it seems like the smart thing to do would be to move focus to Africa as well as the Middle East. If you know, you believe in that kind of foreign policy.

[Disserbia]

He's right about Africa though. Africa is the next theatre to compete on coincidentally

Possibly. The fate of Africa is still, as of yet, unwritten.

Yes that's a much better way of putting it. China has a good system with the infrastructure thing...at least as far as their own interests. I suppose it wasn't so great for the people of Sudan

[Disserbia]

The threshold of 3 seems a little arbitrary and is only like that because after three the world is considered multipolar, but I don't understand why there could not be more than 3 superpowers as per the definition of a superpower. Also isn't the EU the worlds largest economy?

The definition of a superpower is a state that is dominant in the international system, with the ability to take on the role of world hegemon, the defining authority of the international system (roughly similar to the US today although, in theory, a hegemon would exert even more power; nonetheless, the US is the closest the world has ever seen to a true hegemon, IMO). A great power is a state that is influential. If there are too many states of roughly equal power, they are no longer dominant, in which case, they are all simply influential as opposed to dominant. The definition of superpower is a relative definition. There is no absolute measure of a superpower, as it is all in relation to other powers (although the relative definition of a superpower does imply certain absolute qualities of a superpower, most notable force projection). If there are too many "superpowers", then no one is a superpower in the same way that Albert Einstein is no longer exceptional if the world population only consisted of him, Newton, Galileo, John Maynard Keynes, and other influential thinkers/geniuses.

EDIT: Perhaps 3 does seem a little arbitrary, but four and five power systems are considered to be the classic multipolar great power systems. I would argue that 3 superpower systems are uncommon and far more unlikely than bipolar and unipolar superpower systems, and tripolar systems would decay into bipolar or unipolar systems.

Okay I see what you're saying, I believe that power is zero sum but with the world the way it is now I think there is room in a true multipolar world that many superpowers would have the potential to become a hegemonic power but there is less likelihood of doing so. This is starting to get into IR theory though...I don't mean to derail.

[Caninope]

Okay I see what you're saying, I believe that power is zero sum but with the world the way it is now I think there is room in a true multipolar world that many superpowers would have the potential to become a hegemonic power but there is less likelihood of doing so. This is starting to get into IR theory though...I don't mean to derail.

If you believed power were zero sum, then you would agree with the idea of relative power, because relative power is fundamentally premised on the idea of IR as a zero sum game.

I think you instead meant "absolute".

[Disserbia]

Okay I see what you're saying, I believe that power is zero sum but with the world the way it is now I think there is room in a true multipolar world that many superpowers would have the potential to become a hegemonic power but there is less likelihood of doing so. This is starting to get into IR theory though...I don't mean to derail.

If you believed power were zero sum, then you would agree with the idea of relative power, because relative power is fundamentally premised on the idea of IR as a zero sum game.

I think you instead meant "absolute".

Maybe, but I think I believe in relative power, just that right now the nature of IR is changing so it doesn't seem relative to previous (would it be orders of world power - I forget some of my terminology)

[New Babylonia]

One problem with the U.S. I swear, we have the infrastructure of a second world nation. There are entire REGIONS of States in this nation that almost live by candle light and preserve food with salt because they can't get reliable electricity. There's bridges over seventy years old expected to cater everything from a Prius to three fire trucks on duty. Highways could use some work, too. The U.S. actually has a current infrastructure grade of 'D'. It's not killing the nation, not by far. But it's not a good thing either, and the government seems to have no idea on what to do about it, as usual.

China is killing themselves. They won't have enough workers in 2050 to sustain the economy. And at this point Germany is stuck between a rock and hard place for becoming a superpower.
And again, Putin is an evil bastard, but he'll make Russia a superpower again if he dies from old age in the process. As for everyone else, the only one i'd consider is Brazil. They have a few issues which need cleaning up, but they're doing pretty damn well. And India. They've got that huge poverty problem, but that's a truly difficult one. And they have the world's largest gold reserves.

The U.S. won't necessarily die, as it is right now, it's just eroding away with time. I'm sure someone will take office soon to fix it. Hopefully.

[Alyska]

USA and China. Also India as an outside possibility.

Brazil: An emerging great power, but doesn't have quite a large enough population base to become a true superpower.

Russia: Still hasn't come to grips with the fact that it is no longer a superpower, but probably would not be able to regain superpower status within next 40 years despite its best efforts. Besides being held back by authoritarianism and government corruption, it has major demographic issues (i.e. low birth rate + low average life expectancy = impending population crash)

Europe(EU): To be a true superpower Europe would not only have achieve a greater degree of political integration, but would also have to invest in building a strong unified military. I don't see the political will within Europe for doing either, and I can't imagine it developing within the next 40 years.

[Nightkill the Emperor]

Why are people thinking the USA is going to collapse or die?

Why do people think that China can just call in it's portion of the US debt and force the US into bankruptcy?

Because they know nothing of the actual situation.

Thankfully, we have you and EM to guide us to wisdom and truth, holy one.

[Caninope]

Why do people think that China can just call in it's portion of the US debt and force the US into bankruptcy?

Because they know nothing of the actual situation.

Thankfully, we have you and EM to guide us to wisdom and truth, holy one.

Yes, yes you do. Now kiss my ring, peasant.

Also, I'm sigging that.

[Soviet Russia Republic]

USA and China. Also India as an outside possibility.

Brazil: An emerging great power, but doesn't have quite a large enough population base to become a true superpower.

Russia: Still hasn't come to grips with the fact that it is no longer a superpower, but probably would not be able to regain superpower status within next 40 years despite its best efforts. Besides being held back by authoritarianism and government corruption, it has major demographic issues (i.e. low birth rate + low average life expectancy = impending population crash)

Europe(EU): To be a true superpower Europe would not only have achieve a greater degree of political integration, but would also have to invest in building a strong unified military. I don't see the political will within Europe for doing either, and I can't imagine it developing within the next 40 years.

Russia's population has been growing. It has also seeing birthrates grow largely throughout the different regions. This in thanks in part to government increasing efforts to provide social support to new families over the years. You also see the average life expectancy increasing over time, thanks in part to increasing investments into healthcare over the years. At the same time there's a large number of immigrants that enter Russia. There is no "impending population crash". Corruption is granted a large problem, but has been slowly been going down. It's not like China and India don't have huge amounts of corruption either.

I don't think Brazil's main problem would be it's population level or an obstacle to reaching superpower status possibility in the future. It already has a fairly large population level.

[Oceasia]

Japan -- Indonesia -- South Africa

What? That's completely wrong.

Japan's population is decreasing, gas prices increases, like, what, 50% in Indonesia, (Altito, please tell me, i haven't watch the news lately), and i think South Africa is just not that influential, although they are regional power, i think.

[Madda]

China will collapse soon, either politicall and or economically.
The US has gotta do something fast if we want to reclaim our position.

And China isn't a superpower at the moment.

[Altito Asmoro]

Japan -- Indonesia -- South Africa

What? That's completely wrong.

Japan's population is decreasing, gas prices increases, like, what, 50% in Indonesia, (Altito, please tell me, i haven't watch the news lately), and i think South Africa is just not that influential, although they are regional power, i think.

Prices of fuel are on rise in Indonesia. And we do still in drafting a conscription constitution in Indonesia. However, Indonesia will only able to be regional power.

[Oceasia]

What? That's completely wrong.

Japan's population is decreasing, gas prices increases, like, what, 50% in Indonesia, (Altito, please tell me, i haven't watch the news lately), and i think South Africa is just not that influential, although they are regional power, i think.

Prices of fuel are on rise in Indonesia. And we do still in drafting a conscription constitution in Indonesia. However, Indonesia will only able to be regional power.

We are already, and is currently, a regional power, though.

[Altito Asmoro]

Prices of fuel are on rise in Indonesia. And we do still in drafting a conscription constitution in Indonesia. However, Indonesia will only able to be regional power.

We are already, and is currently, a regional power, though.

The most stable. Malaysia's democracy system is not very good. Singapore possess the most technologically advanced army, I think. The others have such a small chance to be the regional power.

[Oceasia]

We are already, and is currently, a regional power, though.

The most stable. Malaysia's democracy system is not very good. Singapore possess the most technologically advanced army, I think. The others have such a small chance to be the regional power.

Singapore is most technologically advanced in the region.

[Mandicoria]

It could be Molossia

[Altito Asmoro]

The most stable. Malaysia's democracy system is not very good. Singapore possess the most technologically advanced army, I think. The others have such a small chance to be the regional power.

Singapore is most technologically advanced in the region.

Small and advanced.

[Oceasia]

Singapore is most technologically advanced in the region.

Small and advanced.

Small countries are usually advanced