Do you think that the U.S. will go to war with Iran in 2013?

[The Tiger Kingdom]

North Korea already has a few things going for it that make direct military intervention unlikely. Iran has none of those. The only thing keeping a conflict with Iran limited to the persian gulf is that that is the only place in which Iran has any muscle, and it's not much. If Iran has a nuclear weapon, the US has to think about serious potential damage to American assets and lives in the region. Plenty of important bases, especially in Bahrain, exist within range of Iranian missile delivery capability. So the US has to think about whether it's wise to engage in a conventional showdown when Iran will threaten or potentially use nuclear weapons against, say, NSA Bahrain. Either the US accepts this kind of catastrophic loss, or the US prevents it, and obviously the US will move to prevent it. It turns any calculation involving how to handle Iran into a nuclear calculation because Iran becomes a nuclear threat without being threatening enough to outright prevent conflict.

You do realize that NK is more likely to develop nuclear weapons first before Iran, right?

They already have, if the tests are any indication. They just can't produce or deliver them reliably.

If that's the case, it would make sense to put more focus on them than Iran, right?

In theory, were it not for all the other geopolitical factors, as well as the fact that it's kinda too late to prevent NK acquiring the tech.

It'd make more sense to target a nation that acquires nukes first and foremost as a high priority. I don't believe Iran is likely to be in any position to be a very serious threat given all the talks. If you check American mainstream media (TV news), I doubt they'll say anything about the Ayatollah's decree against nuclear weapons.

Because no one takes what a religious dictator says very seriously on the subject of peace, let's be honest. If a nuke ever got used, you know they'd just paint it as a US thing.

Now imagine what would've happened had NK suddenly owned a vast field of oil reserves, you think they wouldn't be getting all the media press attention all of a sudden?

Nobody cares about Iranian oil anymore (except the Chinese), the EU's embargoed them and the US doesn't need them.

[Stanisburg]

I doubt it. If you read between the lines in the debates, Romney was trying to saber-rattle about it while Obama was backing away from committing to it. Obama won.


Another war could be disastrous for the US economy right now, and public opinion is strongly against any more unnecessary dicking around in the Middle East.

Unless the Iranians or the Israelis do something really stupid, this will probably blow over.

I don't like the idea of Iran with a nuclear bomb, but stopping it isn't worth a war to me. I think I'm basically speaking for a majority of Americans in that respect.

[Trussvania]

Nope.

[Saiwania]

The US is too war weary from more than a decade of warfare overseas, it is just fixing to wind down the war in Afghanistan to a withdrawal and there is just no political appetite for any further conflict which requires a substantial commitment of conventional military forces after the experience of the Iraq war. Iran's missiles wouldn't be able to reach the US homeland if attacked by it, but they would be able to activate Hezbollah cells throughout the Middle East and cause widespread mayhem.

The best that could be hoped for in terms of any war with Iran would be an Israeli airstrike, but I think the international community is fully willing to accept the reality of a nuclear armed Iran as it has with North Korea.

[Stanisburg]

If we were all that worried about an unstable state full of theocratic zealots having nuclear weapons, we'd have invaded Pakistan by now. They're probably more likely to slip one to a terrorist group than the Iranians are, but even that probably won't happen.

Can Israel and Iran even nuke each other without the literal fallout literally blowing back on themselves? Forgive my American ignorance of geography on that one, but the question is a bit more relevant if we're supposed to worry about Iran slipping a nuke to Hezbollah or Hamas. I mean what, they're going to take a nuke and set it off right next to themselves?

[Inertialism]

i bloody well hope so as Iran is a horrible country supressing freedom of speech, democracy, and women's rights. i say burn the government alive and start again

[The Tiger Kingdom]

If we were all that worried about an unstable state full of theocratic zealots having nuclear weapons, we'd have invaded Pakistan by now.

Except in theory, their state is secular.
It's a thin line, I know, but still.

They're probably more likely to slip one to a terrorist group than the Iranians are, but even that probably won't happen.

Can Israel and Iran even nuke each other without the literal fallout literally blowing back on themselves? Forgive my American ignorance of geography on that one, but the question is a bit more relevant if we're supposed to worry about Iran slipping a nuke to Hezbollah or Hamas. I mean what, they're going to take a nuke and set it off right next to themselves?

You'd be amazed what totalitarian states - especially theocracies - are prepared to do.
I still really doubt it could happen, but it would be silly to say never ever.
I think they can hit each other without too much of a fallout worry, but Iraq and Syria would likely get it. All depends where the wind blows.

[Zanzor]

The US will not attack Iran, China will not let them. The US owes to much money to China to ignore them. It's hard to fight a war when your bankrupt.

If Iran attacks any one then the US will step in, but they'll will look for UN backing to do it, therefore by passing the China problem.

NK isn't really a problem to the US, as they know China will never let it get out of hand.

[The Tiger Kingdom]

The US will not attack Iran, China will not let them. The US owes to much money to China to ignore them. It's hard to fight a war when your bankrupt.

China owns about 7% of the debt, IE not nearly enough to "prevent" the US from intervening.

If Iran attacks any one then the US will step in, but they'll will look for UN backing to do it, therefore by passing the China problem.

...Acknowledging that it would never happen like this, you do know China has veto power anyway, right?

NK isn't really a problem to the US, as they know China will never let it get out of hand.

There are actually reports that with the newest test, Chinese support for NK is really beginning to wane. We'll see with time, but China doesn't like NK deliberately aggravating the situation either.

[The Spiral Future]

No the US will not as it has no reason to do so. Iran will not hold on forever.

The power vacuum in the aftermath might be worth some thought though.

[R0MAN0VA]

True, just look at any nation today trying to be and act like a sovereign nation and you'll find they're either on the watch list or invade here list

Sovereign nation here = violently putting down democratic protestors demonstrating against a obviously rigged election/openly ruling as a theocratic government above the fake "democratic" level/sponsoring various terrorist groups

funny thought you were just talking about the US just now...

violently putting down democratic protestors
a obviously rigged election
a theocratic government
"democratic" level
sponsoring various terrorist groups

[Varijnland]

No.

[United Prefectures of Appia]

They already have, if the tests are any indication. They just can't produce or deliver them reliably.

Compared to Iran?

In theory, were it not for all the other geopolitical factors, as well as the fact that it's kinda too late to prevent NK acquiring the tech.

And what geopolitical factors would they be? That's almost like saying that once the US entered into WW2, their primary focus was on Japan first, and then they'd worry about the Nazis later on in the war.

Because no one takes what a religious dictator says very seriously on the subject of peace, let's be honest. If a nuke ever got used, you know they'd just paint it as a US thing.

And what if the Ayatollah had said the exact same opposite? You think the American mainstream media wouldn't be buzzing over that quote in such a livid frenzy?

Nobody cares about Iranian oil anymore (except the Chinese), the EU's embargoed them and the US doesn't need them.

If that was the case. Syria, a middle eastern country in turmoil just like Iran, Iraq, and Libya, but there is two things Syria lack that the other countries have...

[The Tiger Kingdom]

They already have, if the tests are any indication. They just can't produce or deliver them reliably.

Compared to Iran?

Unless I'm wildly misinformed, Iran hasn't even detonated anything, they've just built reactors and been extremely defensive about what they're for. North Korea has detonated weapons on a nuclear scale, even if they are relatively tiny next to most US ICBMs.

In theory, were it not for all the other geopolitical factors, as well as the fact that it's kinda too late to prevent NK acquiring the tech.

And what geopolitical factors would they be? That's almost like saying that once the US entered into WW2, their primary focus was on Japan first, and then they'd worry about the Nazis later on in the war.

Check my post on the first page.

Because no one takes what a religious dictator says very seriously on the subject of peace, let's be honest. If a nuke ever got used, you know they'd just paint it as a US thing.

And what if the Ayatollah had said the exact same opposite? You think the American mainstream media wouldn't be buzzing over that quote in such a livid frenzy?

"Exact same opposite"?
And people are much more willing to believe a religious theocrat will be violent than peaceful, because that's generally how they are.

Nobody cares about Iranian oil anymore (except the Chinese), the EU's embargoed them and the US doesn't need them.

If that was the case.

It is entirely the case. The US will become an oil exporter in the next five years. We don't need Iran for anything. Neither does the EU.

Syria, a middle eastern country in turmoil just like Iran, Iraq, and Libya, but there is two things Syria lack that the other countries have...

I'll tell you what Syria has that none of those other states had: the open support of Russia and China (veto powers both), at least until it was too late to do anything. Coupled with the ridiculous Congressional deadlock (not much of a problem with Iraq at all, and I'm sure the Republicans had a little feeling of joy at seeing Reagan's old nemesis Ghaddafi dead)...Syria was just a bridge too far.
And Iran isn't a war issue like the other two.

[R0MAN0VA]

definitely take a look at this

[The Tiger Kingdom]

definitely take a look at this

Just FYI, blogs are not considered sources here.

[Napkiraly]

Oh I did I forget to mention the Ayatollah said that for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons is a sin?

Because leaders have never lied.

Anyway, no. The US and Iran are almost certainly not going to war this year.

[Matariyya]

Yeah, not officially but in the same sense of 'war' as the one seen in Libya and Syria. De-listing Mujahideen Khalq Iran was the first step, then will come the funding, then the (alleged) government's human rights abuses, then international calls for intervention, then Nijad will be like "WTF I DIDN'T DO THAT I'M NOT THAT CRAZY", of course no one listens to him, then BAM, full-blown civil war and regime change.
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And don't worry about the draft.

[Divair]

Highly unlikely. If they do, I'm getting the fuck out.

[Churchilland]

I highly doubt it...

[Neo Arcad]

Well... no. We won't go to war against anyone who actually needs to get their ass kicked while Obama is in office. The man is a complete and total coward as far as diplomacy goes.

[Freiheit Reich]

No, Obama is president.

[Khadgar]

Well... no. We won't go to war against anyone who actually needs to get their ass kicked while Obama is in office. The man is a complete and total coward as far as diplomacy goes.

And uh, how would we pay for these wars we should be waging?

[Ethel mermania]

i dont think iran will have nuclear capability till 2015 or so. so no war till then.

[Imperium of Tanith]

While I hope it doesn't, it's quite possible that we do go to war, especially if Iran finally gets the balls to attack Israel, then s***'s going to hit the fan.

I don't think they'll be a draft unless it turns into World War III or Nuclear War, both of which I highly doubt will occur should Iran and the US brawl it out.

If it does happen though, I'm joining the Navy as an Officer and will take pleasure in firing Cruise Missiles into Tehran.