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Do you think that the U.S. will go to war with Iran in 2013?

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Mkuki
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Postby Mkuki » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:26 pm

Costa Alegria wrote:
Mkuki wrote:Iran's gone to war with Israel? I know Israel has attacked Iran before, but not the other way around.


When did they do that?

Actually, I may have confused that with something else. :unsure:
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Postby Empire of Vlissingen » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:43 pm

If Iran attacks Israel the US would support and defend Israel.

So it could happen but just invading Iran without it attcking Israel would be another pointless war.
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Postby Distruzio » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:52 pm

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Postby United Dependencies » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:52 pm

Only if Iran does something first. Even then it seems unlikely that we'd do anything other than airstrikes.
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Postby Dracoria » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:58 pm

A draft would be political suicide for whoever proposed it; the only ones who have in the past decade on a Congressional level intended to use it as a means to stop the US from going to war by weakening the military and the resolve of voters.

We have plenty of voluntary troops right now unless we try to hold two entire countries almost solo again. Conscripted soldiers would lower morale and, overall, dilute the experience and combat skill of the Armed Forces; at this point we'd do just somewhat better upping numbers with machinery rather than a draft, and as technology marches on that will only grow more true.

As for going to war with Iran, unlikely unless they go and do something much stupider than usual. North Korea's the hot spot right now; if anyone attacks Iran it'll likely be Israel.
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Postby Mkuki » Sat Apr 20, 2013 12:00 am

United Dependencies wrote:Only if Iran does something first. Even then it seems unlikely that we'd do anything other than airstrikes.

I've always wondered how a war between Iran and Israel would be fought. Assuming your statement about the US were to come true what would happen? Both the Iranians and the Israelis would have to go through either Iraq or Turkey to get ground troops fighting each other.
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Postby United Dependencies » Sat Apr 20, 2013 12:02 am

Mkuki wrote:
United Dependencies wrote:Only if Iran does something first. Even then it seems unlikely that we'd do anything other than airstrikes.

I've always wondered how a war between Iran and Israel would be fought. Assuming your statement about the US were to come true what would happen? Both the Iranians and the Israelis would have to go through either Iraq or Turkey to get ground troops fighting each other.

I think the Saudis will let the IAF pass over their skys. ASB said that Iran is getting friendly with Iraq's government so that might be their avenue.

I don't think anyone will be able to get soldiers anywhere, though.
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Postby Saiwania » Sat Apr 20, 2013 12:06 am

As badly as the neo-conservatives in the US want another war against another middle eastern country, it just isn't going to happen. There is no political appetite for that after Afghanistan and Iraq, the US public is war weary after over a decade of military conflict overseas and I think the prevailing national mood is that it is time to bring the troops home. If Iraq never happened, Iran might've become a target later on; but that ship has sailed. Another war that isn't absolutely necessary would be wildly unpopular.
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Postby Dracoria » Sat Apr 20, 2013 12:07 am

Mkuki wrote:
United Dependencies wrote:Only if Iran does something first. Even then it seems unlikely that we'd do anything other than airstrikes.

I've always wondered how a war between Iran and Israel would be fought. Assuming your statement about the US were to come true what would happen? Both the Iranians and the Israelis would have to go through either Iraq or Turkey to get ground troops fighting each other.


Air war. Possible engagements between warships; more remote possibility of an attempted amphibious landing. The IDF likely has the technology, possibly the training, but not the manpower to take and hold much in Iran, not to mention the difficulty of getting an invasion force to its target in the Gulf. The Iranian military would be forced to rely on worse equipment and overall training, as well as the difficulty in getting their force to Israel's shores unnoticed; landing enough men and equipment to overcome the IDF's capabilities would be an enormous obstacle as well. So...Yeah, mostly an air war, where the IDF would have a slight advantage if noone else entered the conflict. Considering Iran's relations with the Arab nations are only somewhat better than Israel's overall, I don't expect either side should get much help from their immediate neighbors.
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Postby Costa Alegria » Sat Apr 20, 2013 12:09 am

Mkuki wrote:
Costa Alegria wrote:
When did they do that?

Actually, I may have confused that with something else. :unsure:


They did attack Iraq back in 1981.
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Re: Do you think that the U.S. will go to war with Iran in 2

Postby Alien Space Bats » Sun Apr 21, 2013 3:19 am

Obamacult wrote:ran is a net exporter of both carbon fuels and electricity. Hence, this is not a nation that needs to dangerously alienate itself from the Western world under the sham of needing a nuke plant for peaceful energy uses.

A diplomatic solution to the problem would be an agreement in which Iran is guaranteed access to nuclear fuel for commercial and medical research reactors under the condition that it give up all uranium enrichment and post-processing of fuel rods. Under this arrangement, Russia or various European countries could supply fuel rods and recycle the spent rods after use, and Iran would be guaranteed an uninterruptable supply of nuclear fuel for its own internal needs.

Of course, Israel and American conservatives are dead-set against such a solution, which tells us a lot about their actual priorities here. If we want to end this crisis without a fight, we're going to need to decouple our concerns over nuclear proliferation from our desire to inflict economic damage on Iran.
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Postby The Marxist State » Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:20 am

Costa Alegria wrote:They did attack Iraq back in 1981.


They did. Interestingly, Iran had attacked the same facility a few months earlier.
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Postby Heavenly Peace » Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:24 am

Do you think that the U.S. will go to war with Iran in 2013?


Unlikely. Americans must be sick of perpetual war.
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Postby Augarundus » Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:51 am

I could see a war with North Korea and/or Iran plausibly occurring in the foreseeable future, and a war with China occurring in the (still foreseeable) distant future (2030s?). These are things upon which (though no clear consensus exists) many international relations theorists agree (John Meirscheimer writes prolifically on the possibility of a Sino-American war), such that it isn't really conspiratorial to believe a military confrontation may occur (though I'm certainly not saying these are definite).
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Postby EnragedMaldivians » Sun Apr 21, 2013 1:18 pm

What do Mearshimer's writings on China have to do with Iran? Mearshimer fears a U.S-Sino confrontation because his theory of offensive realism, as laid out in his 'The Tragedy of Great Power Politics', posits that a nascent hegemon will secure its position by confronting the previous hegemon.

Which is irrelevant to Iran. In fact, he thinks that a nuclear Iran would be a good thing.
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Postby Herador » Sun Apr 21, 2013 2:39 pm

Heavenly Peace wrote:
Do you think that the U.S. will go to war with Iran in 2013?


Unlikely. Americans must be sick of perpetual war.

You kind of forget about it after eleven or so years.
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Postby Wikkiwallana » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:00 pm

Only if Romney somehow gets his hands on a time machine.
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Postby Blekksprutia » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:01 pm

Kazarja wrote:The idea of a war with Iran and a military draft scares me to death!


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Postby The Land Fomerly Known as Ligerplace » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:02 pm

No
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Postby Tsa-la-gi Nation » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:42 pm

The only way I see this happening is if North Korea pulls us into defending South Korea & Iran takes advantage of such a thing & does something stupid in their region, but I would sooner bet on North Korea causing a conflict than Iran at this point. Although I think all this is unlikely, you never know what a young dictator will do, Iran is a seasoned veteran at being the lone wolf & they know better.
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Postby Mike the Progressive » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:43 pm

Will we in 2013? Probably not.

Obama's policy towards Iran reminds me of McNamara's gradual pressure against North Vietnam: Half-ass efforts with the hopes of producing big results.

So, he'll probably leave an environment where his successor will have to.

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Postby Ashmoria » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:46 pm

Kazarja wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if this happens sometime Between May-August. Anyway, if the U.S. does go to war with Iran, do you think that a military draft including men and women will be put into place. The idea of a war with Iran and a military draft scares me to death!

no

that possibility ended when president Obama was re-elected
whatever

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Postby The Land Fomerly Known as Ligerplace » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:49 pm

Ashmoria wrote:
Kazarja wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if this happens sometime Between May-August. Anyway, if the U.S. does go to war with Iran, do you think that a military draft including men and women will be put into place. The idea of a war with Iran and a military draft scares me to death!

no

that possibility ended when president Obama was re-elected

The only thing better than that was the look on white people's faces when it happened.

EDIT: Apostrophes, how do they work?
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Postby Coenston » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:04 pm

Kazarja wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if this happens sometime Between May-August. Anyway, if the U.S. does go to war with Iran, do you think that a military draft including men and women will be put into place. The idea of a war with Iran and a military draft scares me to death!


If the US does go to war, where will she get the money to fund a military campaign in Iran?

And what pretext will she subscribe this time? I don't think Barrack is that careless unless Iran did something pretty stupid to provoke international attention like the little boy of Pyongyang.
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Postby Obamacult » Mon Apr 29, 2013 2:55 pm

The Land Fomerly Known as Ligerplace wrote:
Ashmoria wrote:no

that possibility ended when president Obama was re-elected

The only thing better than that was the look on white people's faces when it happened.

EDIT: Apostrophes, how do they work?



The only thing better than that look on 'white people's' face when obama got reelected is when obama voters open up their first social security check, health care bill, education loan payment, unemployment check, and the two column help wanted page in the newspaper of low-paying service sector jobs.

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