Pope Benedict resigns / Bergoglio is Pope Francis I

[Vosona]

thus it begins.

[Serrland]

No surprise, really.

[Angleter]

Indeed. If we get white smoke before 7pm tomorrow, then it'll likely mean Scola (or possibly Scherer) has got it. If it goes on into Thursday, then all bets are off, really.

[Serrland]

Indeed. If we get white smoke before 7pm tomorrow, then it'll likely mean Scola (or possibly Scherer) has got it. If it goes on into Thursday, then all bets are off, really.

I'm frankly hoping for a longer conclave - maybe a half dozen ballots, or a few more - better chance of a reformer sneaking in that way, I reckon. Then again, it would give Bertone more time to scheme (and I hesitate to use that word, but let's be honest - he certainly gives off the impression of being a schemer) and try to put himself in a more advantageous position.

Although a more ballots could also bring about a run-of-the-mill bureaucrat-type compromise candidate - i'm thinking maybe Tauran. Which would be not-so-good.

[Angleter]

Indeed. If we get white smoke before 7pm tomorrow, then it'll likely mean Scola (or possibly Scherer) has got it. If it goes on into Thursday, then all bets are off, really.

I'm frankly hoping for a longer conclave - maybe a half dozen ballots, or a few more - better chance of a reformer sneaking in that way, I reckon. Then again, it would give Bertone more time to scheme (and I hesitate to use that word, but let's be honest - he certainly gives off the impression of being a schemer) and try to put himself in a more advantageous position.

Although a more ballots could also bring about a run-of-the-mill bureaucrat-type compromise candidate - i'm thinking maybe Tauran. Which would be not-so-good.

I think the Bertone/Sodano/old guard/status quo bloc is firmly in the minority this time, and I don't think any candidate they push (starting with Scherer, who's supposed to win with the support of the rump Martinians) will get 77 votes. The question is whether the Curia reformers can get their favourites (starting with Scola) through, or whether Bertone &co. can muster 39 votes against him. However, I think if neither camp can get its favourite (or two favourites, perhaps) through, then the blocs will split up into smaller groups with their own specific (list of) priorities. And then it'll be like trying to build a coalition after an inconclusive Dutch/Israeli election.

[The Fair Republic]

my own opinion, this might take a while because the roman catholic church is struggling with scandals and declining memberships by guess is that it will be a North or South American pope and it will be by the last week of march at best

[Tortopolis]

I personally think that catholic guy should get it

[Seshephe]

I'm sure that no one has posted this before

[Coccygia]

I'm pretty sure it won't be Sean O'Malley, though I kinda like him (at least compared to most of the other red hats). He's American,
and he said bishops should be held accountable for protecting pedophile priests (last week). Obviously not with the program, unlike Cardinal Ratzo (AKA Pope Emeritus) who blamwed everything on the "Anti-Catholic media".

[Fintanland]

I heard there's a capuchin monk now in the running. It would be kind of interesting to have a monk as a pope. Not so much politically (monks are not known to be particularly progressive in theological questions), but in style of office. At least in theory, a monk-y (sorry) pope should be more humble and spiritual than a secular one. In theory.

[Chestaan]

I know he only has a (very) outside chance, but I really hope Luis Tagle gets it. He's young and I don't think he's too conservative, especially when compared with the others.

[Rocketvill]

No pope today

[Coccygia]

Why didn't I think of this before? Father Guido Sarducci!

[Soviet Canuckistan]

I want the Canadian candidate to win, I doubt he will though.

[Vosona]

Dolan, Dolan, Dolan, he is the strongest choice, because he's not afraid to speak his mind. Scola is my second choice, beyond that , we might look at long period of time without a holy father.

[Hungry]

I know Petrus Romanus is fake, but I hope it happens, I just hope it does.

[Ethel mermania]

Why didn't I think of this before? Father Guido Sarducci!

seconded,

[The Archregimancy]

Black again!

[Angleter]

Three ballots down, and no Pope yet. The only Pope to be elected in three ballots (or less) in the last century was Pius XII in 1939. A few have done it in four, though, including John Paul I and Benedict XVI.

[Corporations and Companies]

Another day of big changes!

Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana) has jumped back in the lead with Scola (Italy) just behind and Scherer (Brazil) dropping a bit but still in third.

Some big movers are Ouellete (Canada) moving strongly into 4th, and Cardinal Christoph Schonborn (Austria) who moved up a dozen spots into 5th. The biggest mover of all however was Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) who moved from outside the top 15 into 6th.

Leo is now the huge favorite for the new Pope's name. Peter is fading fast and is just barely holding second ahead of Pius, Gregory, John and Benedict.

[Kleomentia]

Dont really give any fucks. Every pope is the same.

[Nazis in Space]

(Image)


No surprise, really.

Black smoke means they elected a black pope, right?

[The Archregimancy]

Following on from one of Angleter's posts, a quick summary of the number of ballots required at the last 10 conclaves (according to Wikipedia):

2005: 4

1978b: 8

1978a: 4

1963: 6

1958: 11

1939: 3

1922: 14

1914: 10

1903: 7*

1878: 3

*The Conclave would have finished sooner but for the Austrian Emperor using his veto against the favoured candidate - the last use of a secular ruler's veto over a Papal Conclave, a practice subsequently banned.


Leaving aside the slightly anomalous 1903 ballot, from this we can see that it's taken an average of 7 ballots to choose the last 10 Popes of Rome.

On recent averages, the new Pope is therefore most likely to be elected on Thursday morning (this would also be true if we picked the median number of ballots, as opposed to the mean number of ballots).

[Farnhamia]

Dont really give any fucks. Every pope is the same.

But you do love the sound of your own voice, don't you?

[Greed and Death]

Indeed. If we get white smoke before 7pm tomorrow, then it'll likely mean Scola (or possibly Scherer) has got it. If it goes on into Thursday, then all bets are off, really.

I had a nightmare last night that they made Justice Scalia pope, and he found a loop hole that let him remain on SCOTUS.