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What lies in the future for Russia?

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Chernoslavia
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Postby Chernoslavia » Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:18 pm

Christmas Tree wrote:What do you think will happen to Russia in the near future.

I think the following are possibilities.

A. Russia's economy grows and becomes world power.
B. Russia and China become one country.
C. Russia becomes communist
D. A democratic revolution erupts, and democracy is introduced.

Thoughts?


E. Nothing.
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OMGeverynameistaken
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Postby OMGeverynameistaken » Thu Feb 07, 2013 10:18 pm

Pingxiang wrote:Generally, China and Russia have always tended to have this special relationship since the empire days. Afterall, both nations border each other unlike the UK. and France which were separated from China by thousands of miles.

I've heard that the Russian Empire was, in fact, the only state that the Qing (willingly) recognized other than themselves. That is to say, Russia was not a 'tributary' like Korea, Vietnam, etc., but dealt with through a separate government department, as opposed to the other European states, who went through the Ministry of Tribute and Rites (or whatever its name was,) like the other Asian states.
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Mirkana
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Postby Mirkana » Fri Feb 08, 2013 1:44 am

I think it is likely that Putin and his oligarchs will remain in power until Russia's economy falters. One possible cause would be a rise in renewables killing demand for fossil fuels. But realistically, no economy is invincible. Russia will face an economic downturn. At that point, Putin will become rather unpopular, lose power, and a more democratic government put in place.
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Postby Gigaverse » Fri Feb 08, 2013 1:50 am

Either A, which doesn't sound appealing to me; or E. Peanuts.
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Redemption-America
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Postby Redemption-America » Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:08 am

I'm shocked nobody mentioned the most obvious scenario: a civil war between Loyalists and Ultranationalists where the latter win. Then a terrorist will engineer an attack on Moscow's airport, which will be blamed on the US. Then, the Russians will invade the East Coast, but lose because Merica. Eventually (somehow, haven't figured this one out yet) they'll simultaneously attack the entirety of Western Europe after a chemical weapon strike.

THIS IS ALL PLAUSIBLE.
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Bahanesia
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Postby Bahanesia » Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:11 am

Christmas Tree wrote:A. Russia's economy grows and becomes world power.


Doubtful. Its exhausted a lot of its precious resources since the Communist era.

B. Russia and China become one country.


One country? No. Perhaps a stronger military-geopolitical alliance.

C. Russia becomes communist


Highly unlikely.

D. A democratic revolution erupts, and democracy is introduced.


Still highly unlikely.
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Defensor
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Postby Defensor » Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:14 am

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The Land Fomerly Known as Ligerplace wrote:E. Russia gently declines while China takes the lead with other developing nations.


F. The OP is not the brightest star in the sky when it comes to Russia.

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Postby Risottia » Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:19 am

Redemption-America wrote:I'm shocked nobody mentioned the most obvious scenario: a civil war between Loyalists and Ultranationalists where the latter win. Then a terrorist will engineer an attack on Moscow's airport, which will be blamed on the US. Then, the Russians will invade the East Coast, but lose because Merica. Eventually (somehow, haven't figured this one out yet) they'll simultaneously attack the entirety of Western Europe after a chemical weapon strike.

THIS IS ALL PLAUSIBLE.


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Kraslavia
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Postby Kraslavia » Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:36 am

Or Russia become more and more turning into kind of sham democracy neocommunist-nationalist-dictatorship
Or (Foreign or Civil) war. Propably not with China, but on Caucasus and further into middle east.
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Postby Yandere Schoolgirls » Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:39 am

Nothing interesting like most of Europe and the world.

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Redemption-America
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Postby Redemption-America » Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:08 pm

Risottia wrote:
Redemption-America wrote:I'm shocked nobody mentioned the most obvious scenario: a civil war between Loyalists and Ultranationalists where the latter win. Then a terrorist will engineer an attack on Moscow's airport, which will be blamed on the US. Then, the Russians will invade the East Coast, but lose because Merica. Eventually (somehow, haven't figured this one out yet) they'll simultaneously attack the entirety of Western Europe after a chemical weapon strike.

THIS IS ALL PLAUSIBLE.


And you're Michael Bay.


Maybe. Or the guy who wrote the plots to the 3 Modern Warfare games haha.
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OMGeverynameistaken
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Postby OMGeverynameistaken » Fri Feb 08, 2013 4:22 pm

Redemption-America wrote:
Risottia wrote:
And you're Michael Bay.


Maybe. Or the guy who wrote the plots to the 3 Modern Warfare games haha.

You left out the part where George Washington rides out of the sky on a giant eagle and blasts the Russians with freedom beams from the declaration of independence.
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L Ron Cupboard
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Postby L Ron Cupboard » Fri Feb 08, 2013 4:25 pm

Some kind of revolution where the workers control the means of corruption.
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Shofercia
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Postby Shofercia » Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:24 pm

L Ron Cupboard wrote:Some kind of revolution where the workers control the means of corruption.


Been there, done that.
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Khodoristan
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Postby Khodoristan » Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:30 pm

Russia should watch it's southern border with China. Shit could get real ugly, real fast.
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Postby Geilinor » Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:34 pm

A. Russia is already democratic, their democracy just isn't very good. It's corrupt.
Last edited by Geilinor on Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tibetan Highlands
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Postby Tibetan Highlands » Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:36 pm

Geilinor wrote:A. Russia is already democratic, their democracy just isn't very good. It's corrupt.


I shouldn't have said "democracy", Russia ranks as a authoritian country.

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Postby Khodoristan » Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:38 pm

Tibetan Highlands wrote:
Geilinor wrote:A. Russia is already democratic, their democracy just isn't very good. It's corrupt.


I shouldn't have said "democracy", Russia ranks as a authoritian country.


Iran is 'technically' a 'democracy'. Is it free? Hell naw. Is Russia a democracy? Technically, yes. Is it free? Ehh...it could be worse.
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Geilinor
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Postby Geilinor » Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:40 pm

Tibetan Highlands wrote:
Geilinor wrote:A. Russia is already democratic, their democracy just isn't very good. It's corrupt.


I shouldn't have said "democracy", Russia ranks as a authoritian country.

I didn't say it was a free democracy. It's a "democracy", but not an effective democracy.
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Neu Leonstein
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Postby Neu Leonstein » Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:42 pm

Russia will get poorer over time as its infrastructure decays and what is left of its energy business is split between trying to keep what welfare state remains afloat and lining the pockets of the ruling kleptocracy (in about equal measure). Dissent will continue to be supressed, and Europe will continue to do nothing until its energy infrastructure moves on from cheap gas.

Then, when it does, Russia will be trying to sell to the Chinese, but the golden days for the current system will be over. The state will grow more dysfunctional and more corrupt, people will become more unhappy and it will eventually become something akin to the central Asian countries now, sans the investment in shiny new buildings. A de-facto colony of the Chinese, who strip it of its resources, pay its leaders for the privilege and otherwise couldn't give a damn about what else happens in Russia.

I imagine that there will be some weakening of the central government, with local provincial leaders taking more freedoms for themselves (which they'll generally use to enrich themselves beyond belief, with Chinese blessing). Some other areas will see more violent confrontations (the Caucasus being the most obvious choice). Extremist political groups (some of them pseudo-religious and/or aligned with the church) will seek to influence the country, probably breeding the odd bit of violence as well.
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Geilinor
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Postby Geilinor » Fri Feb 08, 2013 8:45 pm

Neu Leonstein wrote:Russia will get poorer over time as its infrastructure decays and what is left of its energy business is split between trying to keep what welfare state remains afloat and lining the pockets of the ruling kleptocracy (in about equal measure). Dissent will continue to be supressed, and Europe will continue to do nothing until its energy infrastructure moves on from cheap gas.

Then, when it does, Russia will be trying to sell to the Chinese, but the golden days for the current system will be over. The state will grow more dysfunctional and more corrupt, people will become more unhappy and it will eventually become something akin to the central Asian countries now, sans the investment in shiny new buildings. A de-facto colony of the Chinese, who strip it of its resources, pay its leaders for the privilege and otherwise couldn't give a damn about what else happens in Russia.

I imagine that there will be some weakening of the central government, with local provincial leaders taking more freedoms for themselves (which they'll generally use to enrich themselves beyond belief, with Chinese blessing). Some other areas will see more violent confrontations (the Caucasus being the most obvious choice). Extremist political groups (some of them pseudo-religious and/or aligned with the church) will seek to influence the country, probably breeding the odd bit of violence as well.

Well, that's quite pessimistic.
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Shofercia
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Postby Shofercia » Fri Feb 08, 2013 9:05 pm

Neu Leonstein wrote:Russia will get poorer over time as its infrastructure decays and what is left of its energy business is split between trying to keep what welfare state remains afloat and lining the pockets of the ruling kleptocracy (in about equal measure). Dissent will continue to be supressed, and Europe will continue to do nothing until its energy infrastructure moves on from cheap gas.

Then, when it does, Russia will be trying to sell to the Chinese, but the golden days for the current system will be over. The state will grow more dysfunctional and more corrupt, people will become more unhappy and it will eventually become something akin to the central Asian countries now, sans the investment in shiny new buildings. A de-facto colony of the Chinese, who strip it of its resources, pay its leaders for the privilege and otherwise couldn't give a damn about what else happens in Russia.

I imagine that there will be some weakening of the central government, with local provincial leaders taking more freedoms for themselves (which they'll generally use to enrich themselves beyond belief, with Chinese blessing). Some other areas will see more violent confrontations (the Caucasus being the most obvious choice). Extremist political groups (some of them pseudo-religious and/or aligned with the church) will seek to influence the country, probably breeding the odd bit of violence as well.


Russia's GDP is currently growing, and there's massive investment in infrastructure. The energy business is being modernized, and the people are so unhappy, that Putin's approval rating never dipped below 60% since the 2004 election. As for Russia becoming a colony of anyone - that's extremely laughable. As is the rest of that post.
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Saruhan
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Postby Saruhan » Fri Feb 08, 2013 9:07 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Neu Leonstein wrote:Russia will get poorer over time as its infrastructure decays and what is left of its energy business is split between trying to keep what welfare state remains afloat and lining the pockets of the ruling kleptocracy (in about equal measure). Dissent will continue to be supressed, and Europe will continue to do nothing until its energy infrastructure moves on from cheap gas.

Then, when it does, Russia will be trying to sell to the Chinese, but the golden days for the current system will be over. The state will grow more dysfunctional and more corrupt, people will become more unhappy and it will eventually become something akin to the central Asian countries now, sans the investment in shiny new buildings. A de-facto colony of the Chinese, who strip it of its resources, pay its leaders for the privilege and otherwise couldn't give a damn about what else happens in Russia.

I imagine that there will be some weakening of the central government, with local provincial leaders taking more freedoms for themselves (which they'll generally use to enrich themselves beyond belief, with Chinese blessing). Some other areas will see more violent confrontations (the Caucasus being the most obvious choice). Extremist political groups (some of them pseudo-religious and/or aligned with the church) will seek to influence the country, probably breeding the odd bit of violence as well.


Russia's GDP is currently growing, and there's massive investment in infrastructure. The energy business is being modernized, and the people are so unhappy, that Putin's approval rating never dipped below 60% since the 2004 election. As for Russia becoming a colony of anyone - that's extremely laughable. As is the rest of that post.

Well, you could use the people to help develop Siberia more
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Soviet Russia Republic
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Postby Soviet Russia Republic » Fri Feb 08, 2013 9:25 pm

Saruhan wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
Russia's GDP is currently growing, and there's massive investment in infrastructure. The energy business is being modernized, and the people are so unhappy, that Putin's approval rating never dipped below 60% since the 2004 election. As for Russia becoming a colony of anyone - that's extremely laughable. As is the rest of that post.

Well, you could use the people to help develop Siberia more


There's been increasing incentives over some time by the state to encourage more people to move east and various projects going on . There's pretty many immigrants as well.
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Postby Costa Alegria » Fri Feb 08, 2013 9:28 pm

All Russia's butter are made by us. At least that's what the government says will happen anyway after Key's meeting with Putin.
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