The Next Superpower?

[Mkuki]

No.

China doesn't meet the definition of superpower.

Large territory, large economy, large military, large influence. There can be more than one superpower you know.

Those aren't the only characteristics of a superpower. They also need the ability to expand their influence internationally and challenge the power of the United States. As far as I can tell, they don't have that.

[Glasgia]

Bugger the colonies. We can have what is rightfully ours instead... France.

I like you. Keep it up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz,_Duke_of_Bavaria

Just wait until the Bavaro-Scots units to take back the Jacobite throne!

[United Roggel]

The US doesn't meet this "definition" either.... an actuall world power isn't around anymore, the US plays it the way like they wan't but as you can see everywhere they still "afraid" of China and Russia

What power comes even close to matching the U.S in military capability? The U.S could reduce their military expenditure by a hell of a lot and still continue to be the most powerful country in the world by far.

True, but do they have the capability of (for example) defeating Russia on Russian land? Or China on Chinese land?

No they don't have that capability, and as long as that is clear it doesn exactly meets the definition...

Actually the world mostly didn't had any superpower, becouse a superpower should have the power to "rule the world".... well and if you look to the news you know that the US can't rule the world becouse of China and Russia...

[Ozzy]

The Mushroom Kingdom.

Military At a first glance, it appears weak, not possessing the massive tanks, navies, and airship armadas of its neighbors. Yet, it also possesses superheroes capable of stomping entire fortresses into the ground on their own, breathing in space, jumping multiple stories in one go, throwing fireballs, flying by a variety of means, and having bursts of flat-out invulnerability. Needless to says, it's these superheroes that have ensured the Mushroom Kingdom's regional dominance. Also, dinosaur cavalry
Influence The Mushroom Kingdom's diplomacy is probably the most impressive of all. It promises cake, and it delivers. Indeed, its diplomacy is so skilled, it has even managed to cooperate with its usually-hostile neighbors from time to time. Once this cooperation becomes permanent, it's game over, world[/list]

Equestria!

Prepare to be Toad's bitch.

[Caninope]

No.

China doesn't meet the definition of superpower.

Large territory, large economy, large military, large influence. There can be more than one superpower you know.

You essentially described middle power, or possibly great power. You didn't describe superpower.

As to your other point, there can be (in the most generous estimates) 3 superpowers. The only time that I can think of that happening would be immediately before and after World War II, with the US, USSR, and UK.

[Nazis in Space]

Until they pop.

I wouldn't make too big a deal of it even if it does happen. The U.S went through a number of depressions in the 19th century and an exceptionally bad depression in the early 20th century yet they recovered. China might have its bubble burst sure, but this notion that it will render it powerless to recover for ever and ever is just nonsense.

The Chinese bubble is itself a myth.

China's rapidly growing middle class means that its famed 'Empty Cities' do, in fact, have a market (Unlike the US housing bubble, where demographics are considerably more stable). Sure, the prices may have to fall a bit (Or wages rise), but the losses - if any - will be bearable.

Said middle class also provides the domestic market for China's manufacturing if the oversea markets become less lucrative. Reduction in foreign investment as labour costs grow? Natural process, and the increased labour costs also increase the domestic market. And the startup capital/ infrastructure needed for fully native industries is already there and being used.

Quality issues? Same problem Japan had in the 1950s, South Korea had in the 1980s. Again, a natural issue for newly developed industries that gets solved in two or three decades, tops.

The 'Chinese Bubble' is a myth that makes American Patriots (tm) wet themselves at night. That's pretty much it.

[Caninope]

Until they pop.

I wouldn't make too big a deal of it even if it does happen. The U.S went through a number of depressions in the 19th century and an exceptionally bad depression in the early 20th century yet they recovered. China might have its bubble burst sure, but this notion that it will render it powerless to recover for ever and ever is just nonsense.

Yes, but China will have to undergo some very serious growing pains in the next half century, not just related to economics.

[United Roggel]

The US doesn't meet this "definition" either.... an actuall world power isn't around anymore, the US plays it the way like they wan't but as you can see everywhere they still "afraid" of China and Russia

Actually, the US does. It is, by far, the most dominant state on the international level. It is also the only state with the capabilities to pull off large scale, long range power projection.

True, but they aren't "leading" the world (like a real superpower should do)

[New Ecopia]

China Surely.

[Divair]

Actually, the US does. It is, by far, the most dominant state on the international level. It is also the only state with the capabilities to pull off large scale, long range power projection.

True, but they aren't "leading" the world (like a real superpower should do)

That's not part of a superpower's definition.

[Glasgia]

Large territory, large economy, large military, large influence. There can be more than one superpower you know.

You essentially described middle power, or possibly great power. You didn't describe superpower.

As to your other point, there can be (in the most generous estimates) 3 superpowers. The only time that I can think of that happening would be immediately before and after World War II, with the US, USSR, and UK.

Before World War 1: British Empire, German Empire, French Empire, Russian Empire. Tell me again there can only be four superpowers.

China is the 2nd largest in everything I listed, apart from territory. They are a superpower.

[United Roggel]

True, but they aren't "leading" the world (like a real superpower should do)

That's not part of a superpower's definition.

A superpower should have influence, and the US clearly hasn't that much of it... so they will fail to at lots of other requierments.

[The Scandinvans]

In thirty years, as the example of China has shown us, the fortunes of major developing countries can readily change. However, if current trends continue generally, I believe that both China and India would develop into superpowers.

[Divair]

A superpower should have influence, and the US clearly hasn't that much of it... so they will fail to at lots of other requierments.

You must be mad to think the USA doesn't have influence.

[Eastfield Lodge]

Interesting how nobody has voted for India yet.

[Rudsambith]

.

[Grand Britannia]

That's not part of a superpower's definition.

A superpower should have influence, and the US clearly hasn't that much of it... so they will fail to at lots of other requierments.

You must live in a parallel dimension.

The U.S can exert their influence globally, an trait of a superpower.

[Cetacea]

you know New Zealand has a free trade agreement with China, as well as CER with Australia, is part of Asean+6, has the TransPacific Strategic Economic Partnership (which includes Singapore, Brunei and Chile), is part of Anzus, is pursuing a FTA with the US, India, Russia (Belarus and Kazakhstan) and the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as the Trans Pacific Partnership. It also has historic ties to the UK and Commonwealth states.

New Zealand is set to be the new superpower, with the power of cute inoffensiveness on it's side. Yes the meek shall inherent the earth!

[Caninope]

What power comes even close to matching the U.S in military capability? The U.S could reduce their military expenditure by a hell of a lot and still continue to be the most powerful country in the world by far.

True, but do they have the capability of (for example) defeating Russia on Russian land? Or China on Chinese land?

Depending on how you define defeat, it's probably capable of doing so. The real test of a superpower is not how well it can conquer great powers, but how well it can prevent great powers from gaining influence outside their borders.

No they don't have that capability, and as long as that is clear it doesn exactly meets the definition...

That's not actually required for a nation to be the superpower.

Actually the world mostly didn't had any superpower, becouse a superpower should have the power to "rule the world".... well and if you look to the news you know that the US can't rule the world becouse of China and Russia...

I'd like to know where you got your international relation schooling. You seem to be suggesting that a superpower would create a hierarchical international system.

Last I checked, only constructivists rejected (to an extent) the notion of an anarchic system, as even neoliberal institutionalists accept it as the current state of affairs. You don't seem like a constructivist to me.

[Mkuki]

You essentially described middle power, or possibly great power. You didn't describe superpower.

As to your other point, there can be (in the most generous estimates) 3 superpowers. The only time that I can think of that happening would be immediately before and after World War II, with the US, USSR, and UK.

Before World War 1: British Empire, German Empire, French Empire, Russian Empire. Tell me again there can only be four superpowers.

China is the 2nd largest in everything I listed, apart from territory. They are a superpower.

Imperial Germany was never a superpower. By any century's standards they lacked large and numerous colonial holdings. They were stuck in Europe.

Again China is not a superpower. It does not have the ability to effectively expand it's influence outside of China. They can't even keep North Korea under their thumb let alone any other country.

[Chinese Regions]

North Korea, seriously? Sure they are possibly making nukes, they may be come a military power but not a super power.
Super power implies holding multiple powers. USA and China have both economic and military power for example.

[United Roggel]

A superpower should have influence, and the US clearly hasn't that much of it... so they will fail to at lots of other requierments.

You must be mad to think the USA doesn't have influence.

I didn't say that, the US has influence, alot of it... but they don't have much more influence then China and Russia for example, this clearly gets them into awkward positions sometimes as we've seen... And for that matter they actuall don't belong the Superpower Title...

[Caninope]

You essentially described middle power, or possibly great power. You didn't describe superpower.

As to your other point, there can be (in the most generous estimates) 3 superpowers. The only time that I can think of that happening would be immediately before and after World War II, with the US, USSR, and UK.

Before World War 1: British Empire, German Empire, French Empire, Russian Empire. Tell me again there can only be four superpowers.

Yes, no, possible, no.

You listed one superpower, an arguable superpower, and two definite great powers.

China is the 2nd largest in everything I listed, apart from territory. They are a superpower.

Guess what? If I, being 6'1 inches, go to my mother's family reunion, I'm definitely that tallest person there. The next tallest would be my granddad, at 5'8.

I'm tall. However, just because my granddad is second tallest doesn't mean he is tall.

[Luciferius]

If any country is going to join the superpower club in the future, it is going to be China. IMF and OECD already predict China will surpass the U.S. economy in terms of size sometime from 2016-2030 and has already surpassed the U.S. as the worlds biggest trading partner and creditor nation while the U.S. continues to build up costly debt (recently identified by former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman as the nation's number one security threat). USA and Russia will be China's biggest competitors due to large share of global oil control. I wish Japan could get it's house in order and re-join the club in the next two decades, but too many in that country seem content to be a U.S. client state (western pacifist brainwashing). Europe as a superpower is ridiculous pipe dream.

[Caninope]

That's not part of a superpower's definition.

A superpower should have influence, and the US clearly hasn't that much of it... so they will fail to at lots of other requierments.

I'll accept your premise the US doesn't have influence, if you can clearly explain to me who (besides) controls the IMF and World Bank. Or NATO. Or the world's largest stock exchange. Or the world's most powerful military. Or the a great number of the world's greatest educational institutions.