Scottish Independance. Great Idea or No Go?

[Of the Free Socialist Territories]

I'd rather they stay, but there'll be a referendum and if they choose to leave, so be it.

But please don't leave, guys, we need you to keep the Tories out.

[Wesibaden]

Scotland without the UK would be a european petrol state completely fucked in 20 years when the North Sea oil fields dry up.

Certainly not a good idea.

They won't dry up in 20 years

[Fnordgasm 5]

I'm scared it would fuck with the price of imported shortbread.

I'm more scared by the thought of a perpetual Conservative government.

They wouldn't do that to us would they? I mean us English and Scottish have had our differences but would they be so cruel as to abandon us to the Tories?

[Vitaphone Racing]

Scotland without the UK would be a european petrol state completely fucked in 20 years when the North Sea oil fields dry up.

Certainly not a good idea.

They won't dry up in 20 years

Revenue was $13 billion this year and is predicted to be less than $7 billion next year. Oil production will be a third of it's peak in 7 years from now. You don't need to be a genius to realise that it's no longer something that can be relied on.

More worrying is that the latest large field find... is in Norway.

[Call to power]

i don't really see how it's insignificant when your argument is that scotland is totally going to be bound to londons massive financial sector (its knob)

Are you trying to have some sort of argument form where Scotland's doesn't do the majority of its trade with the rest of the UK?

and what the fuck does that even mean, seriously

Its still insignificant despite your attempts to make it sound bigger by limiting the scope to the national and regional level.

[Souseiseki]

it's worth noting at this point that every post-war labour government would have won regardless of scottish seats

And how much does Scotland's renewable energy contribute to the economy in the present? In percentage?

i could look through GERS but i;m not sure

Whether or not you're coasting on oil is irrelevant, the point of the matter is Britain and others have spent far too long fucking around with oil rather than saving and investing the money like Norway, that funny country who also drills in the North Sea.

that is true. luckily the british government managed to suppress the mccrone report a good while.

Britain's oil revenue will halve next year, you mean to tell me that economic growth in other areas will be 10% each year to cover the loss?

"will" and "predicted" are not actually the same thing. if we're going by what people have predicted we'd have no oil now, yet, we seem to have.

Are you trying to have some sort of argument form where Scotland's doesn't do the majority of its trade with the rest of the UK?

fourth largest in europe seems like it'd be rather independent from the UK

are you trying to have some sort of argument from where once scotland goes independent we throw up the old roman walls, close the borders and demand your papers?

Its still insignificant despite your attempts to make it sound bigger by limiting the scope to the national and regional level.

europe is pretty fucking huge

unless you're saying "scotland has X" isn't the response to "how could scotland ever have X?!"

[Wesibaden]

They won't dry up in 20 years

Revenue was $13 billion this year and is predicted to be less than $7 billion next year. Oil production will be a third of it's peak in 7 years from now. You don't need to be a genius to realise that it's no longer something that can be relied on.

More worrying is that the latest large field find... is in Norway.

Supply and Demand has more to do with that then being dried up...

[Call to power]

But please don't leave, guys, we need you to keep the Tories out.

Well they certainly managed to cock that up. I say we eject Scotland from the union and try it with another country full of New Statesman readers.

[FoxTropica]

Socially, it sounds semi-nice to me. (Promised gay marriage sooner, We have free university and such.)

Economically, I'm not sure, so i assume the worst.

So overall I'm meh to the thing.

[Vitaphone Racing]

it's worth noting at this point that every post-war labour government would have won regardless of scottish seats

And how much does Scotland's renewable energy contribute to the economy in the present? In percentage?

i could look through GERS but i;m not sure

Well I can safely tell you it's not in the top 5 so it's less than 5%.

Whether or not you're coasting on oil is irrelevant, the point of the matter is Britain and others have spent far too long fucking around with oil rather than saving and investing the money like Norway, that funny country who also drills in the North Sea.

that is true. luckily the british government managed to suppress the mccrone report a good while.

Okay we agree on this.

Britain's oil revenue will halve next year, you mean to tell me that economic growth in other areas will be 10% each year to cover the loss?

"will" and "predicted" are not actually the same thing. if we're going by what people have predicted we'd have no oil now, yet, we seem to have.

Except these predictions actually have merit because there have been barely any noticable oil finds in the North Sea in the last five years. Funnily enough, the last big one I remember reading is on the Norweigan shelf.


Look, if you live in Britain then you're all fucked. Don't feel bad about that because we will also be fucked but just not in the next few decades. The point is you will be more fucked if Scotland doesn't have the option to fall back on a larger economy. The growing financial and health industries in Scotland have only made up for the loss in manufacturing, they haven't yet started to compensate for when the oil runs dry, and it will.

Scotland's task: increase revenue from all other areas by 66% before 2020.

[The New Sea Territory]

I don't care.

[Vitaphone Racing]

Revenue was $13 billion this year and is predicted to be less than $7 billion next year. Oil production will be a third of it's peak in 7 years from now. You don't need to be a genius to realise that it's no longer something that can be relied on.

More worrying is that the latest large field find... is in Norway.

Supply and Demand has more to do with that then being dried up...

Then let me lay it out for you.

Supply is decreasing.
Demand is stagnant.

What happens next?

[Tagmatium]

If that's what they vote for, then fair play to them.

[Free Devonians]

When the oil dries up, and not if but when, Scotland will be forced to take on debt or massively cut public spending as 25% of it's revenue disappears. The rest of Britain does not have an issue of this magnitude as less than 10% of their total revenue will be lost when Scotland becomes independant and their remaining oil fields dry up.

Massive cuts in public spending huh? Sure is lucky Scotland is part of the UK and can avoid such a thing as a result.

[Souseiseki]

Except these predictions actually have merit because there have been barely any noticable oil finds in the North Sea in the last five years. Funnily enough, the last big one I remember reading is on the Norweigan shelf.

i'm sure the predictions had merit back in the 70s too.

i'm not that into the whole "oil is the crown jewel!"

The growing financial and health industries in Scotland have only made up for the loss in manufacturing, they haven't yet started to compensate for when the oil runs dry, and it will.

fuck, we better get a government that will focus on investment in scotland instead of bending over backwards to appeal to south-east england as fast as possible. prefferably with the ability to actually do things, like with, hey, energy, gracefully a reserved category.

Scotland's task: increase revenue from all other areas by 66% before 2020.

how did we go from "oil is 7-12%" to "oil is 66%!!!!!!!"?

[Call to power]

are you trying to have some sort of argument from where once scotland goes independent we throw up the old roman walls, close the borders and demand your papers?

No I'm saying that Scotland will still be irrevocably bound to the London Stock Exchange and other industries of primarily England.

This means that, much like when trading with the EU, Scotland can have its own policies but that said policies had best conform to England's.

europe is pretty fucking huge

The US is pretty fucking huge but that doesn't mean its not dominated by NYSE and NASDAQ and similarly in Europe the only rival would be Frankfurt

[Souseiseki]

When the oil dries up, and not if but when, Scotland will be forced to take on debt or massively cut public spending as 25% of it's revenue disappears. The rest of Britain does not have an issue of this magnitude as less than 10% of their total revenue will be lost when Scotland becomes independant and their remaining oil fields dry up.

Massive cuts in public spending huh? Sure is lucky Scotland is part of the UK and can avoid such a thing as a result.

oh snap

[Souseiseki]

The US is pretty fucking huge but that doesn't mean its not dominated by NYSE and NASDAQ and similarly in Europe the only rival would be Frankfurt

fuck it, tell ireland and spain they're joining the UK

[Polar Islandstates]

While the Uk is happy to keep London as its main trading centre, an independent Scotland would be able to focus on Edinburgh.

Why would this be the case? Scotland is a small nation with an economy bound to the South. Far too small to have its own stock-market or really be a global leader in a particular industry.

Edinburgh is already the fourth biggest financial centre in Europe by assets. It's a huge banking centre.

[Napkiraly]

I would rather have them stay, but if they want to leave let'em.

[Vitaphone Racing]

Except these predictions actually have merit because there have been barely any noticable oil finds in the North Sea in the last five years. Funnily enough, the last big one I remember reading is on the Norweigan shelf.

i'm sure the predictions had merit back in the 70s too.

i'm not that into the whole "oil is the crown jewel!"

Well if you want to get by on the hope and plea that a massive oil field will be found in the North Sea whenever you need it...

The growing financial and health industries in Scotland have only made up for the loss in manufacturing, they haven't yet started to compensate for when the oil runs dry, and it will.

fuck, we better get a government that will focus on investment in scotland instead of bending over backwards to appeal to south-east england as fast as possible. prefferably with the ability to actually do things, like with, hey, energy, gracefully a reserved category.

And how exactly are you going to afford to do that?

Sorry, Scotland should have done this years ago. Britain had this great thing and pissed it up against the wall like a drunk teenager.

I'm also not sure why you think renewables are the fix to the drop in oil revenue as they really compete in two different markets and growth in renewables is going to come with some detraction from fossil fuels revenues anyway.

Scotland's task: increase revenue from all other areas by 66% before 2020.

how did we go from "oil is 7-12%" to "oil is 66%!!!!!!!"?

No you're right, I really fucked up maths there. It's 3 am, give me a break.

[Polar Islandstates]

Revenue was $13 billion this year and is predicted to be less than $7 billion next year. Oil production will be a third of it's peak in 7 years from now. You don't need to be a genius to realise that it's no longer something that can be relied on.

Well then the Scottish Government needs to prepare for this loss of oil, which they could do if they were allowed to do so. It would be one of their primary concerns, in fact. The renewable energy potential in Scotland is colossal, for example. At the moment, I see nothing from London about preparing Scotland for a lack of oil. This worries me.

[Souseiseki]

And how exactly are you going to afford to do that?

Sorry, Scotland should have done this years ago. Britain had this great thing and pissed it up against the wall like a drunk teenager.

yep pretty much. "we hid details before and we mismanaged everything but now you need to stay because otherwise your economy will totally be bad!" sounds like a really shit argument. i mean if you want a better economy it sounds like the better option is to 1) get a government that will invest in it 2) get away from the shitty government that continues to mismanage the economy

[Souseiseki]

Revenue was $13 billion this year and is predicted to be less than $7 billion next year. Oil production will be a third of it's peak in 7 years from now. You don't need to be a genius to realise that it's no longer something that can be relied on.

Well then the Scottish Government needs to prepare for this loss of oil, which they could do if they were allowed to do so. It would be one of their primary concerns, in fact. The renewable energy potential in Scotland is colossal, for example. At the moment, I see nothing from London about preparing Scotland for a lack of oil. This worries me.

it's almost like they are more interested in something else, mmm

[Polar Islandstates]

Well then the Scottish Government needs to prepare for this loss of oil, which they could do if they were allowed to do so. It would be one of their primary concerns, in fact. The renewable energy potential in Scotland is colossal, for example. At the moment, I see nothing from London about preparing Scotland for a lack of oil. This worries me.

it's almost like they are more interested in something else, mmm

Can't imagine what

Scotland is well aware of the mess that lies on the "no oil left" horizon, Aberdeen quite likes being rich, thank you. Trouble is, they have no control over the current investments made on the oil. Frankly, whether its independence or DevoMax, the scottish executive needs to have the power to prepare for that time. Do I trust London to do that? Hell no.