Scottish Independance. Great Idea or No Go?

[Ostroeuropa]

So you understand that scottish independence is not what the majority of the country wants...and that only 23% want it compared to various unity types...whats the problem again

If they're not given the chance to vote for what they want, then they might vote for other things that they do have a chance to do so instead.

Only 23% want it compared to various step ups of devolution. Fine.
Only 23% want it compared to the status quo? No. That's not what the question asked.

I just gave you first hand anecdotal evidence for my problem with the "only 23% support independence" banner; namely that I know people that will support independence come the referendum because of the possible answers they can give, yes or no. Voting 'yes' would seem to go against the claim that just because they'd prefer DevoMax it means they're against independence.

The AV Referendum was a yes/no question. You would not have been able to accurately convey support for it before hand with a multiple choice poll offering not just "AV" and "status quo" but other FTV options as well.

Check the thread topic.

[Ostroeuropa]

67% of people want Scotland to make all of its own decisions (i.e. de facto independence). How will the people in the Scotland house react when they find out that they've just voted for Scotland not making all of its own decisions?

Coming Autumn 2014

All decisions bar immigration, foreign policy, and defence.

[Souseiseki]

There are plenty of good arguments against a number of posistions I hold.
There are no good arguments for scottish independence, and it seems most scots agree.
Our arguments are clearly better because since this issue was given airtime, we've been consistently convincing people while the seperatists have been consistently failing to convince people.

The campaigns haven't even properly started yet.

Consistently convincing people? Oh? What about when support for independence went from 30% to 40%? What about if it goes back up? Does that you've consistently failed to convince people?

[Souseiseki]

67% of people want Scotland to make all of its own decisions (i.e. de facto independence). How will the people in the Scotland house react when they find out that they've just voted for Scotland not making all of its own decisions?

Coming Autumn 2014

All decisions bar immigration, foreign policy, and defence.

So, not all decisions. Cool. See you in Iraq!

[Ostroeuropa]

There are plenty of good arguments against a number of posistions I hold.
There are no good arguments for scottish independence, and it seems most scots agree.
Our arguments are clearly better because since this issue was given airtime, we've been consistently convincing people while the seperatists have been consistently failing to convince people.

The campaigns haven't even properly started yet.

Consistently convincing people? Oh? What about when support for independence went from 30% to 40%? What about if it goes back up? Does that you've consistently failed to convince people?

Seems consistent to me.
Check google trends.
The less people actually hear about or look up scottish independence, the more likely they are to support it. Spikes in scottish independence coincide with lulls in reports on the subject, which then cause a spike in reporting on the subject, and as such, increased debate of it. Then those people get educated and quickly stop supporting the idea.
Ever since the referendum was announced, we've been consistently pwning since the reporting HASNT STOPPED.
This referendum will kill scottish independence.

[Souseiseki]

The campaigns haven't even properly started yet.

Consistently convincing people? Oh? What about when support for independence went from 30% to 40%? What about if it goes back up? Does that you've consistently failed to convince people?

Seems consistent to me.
Check google trends.
The less people actually hear about or look up scottish independence, the more likely they are to support it.

What does "Agree negotiate on independence" mean?

Well, there was an 11% drop, so I guess there's a lot of your side using shitty arguments.

Sometimes they get pretty close together, mmm. Infact, aren't there times like the end of 2011 where with 38% for and 23% don't know, where you've failed to convince 61% of the population? I mean, speaking of consistently convince, it seems like there's a lot of people you aren't able to convince.

Ever since the referendum, we've been consistently pwning since the reporting HASNT STOPPED.

Consistently pwning? What colour is the sky in your world, pray tell?

This referendum will kill scottish independence.

After 300 years in the Union and many hundreds more before of trying to kill Scottish independence, it was finally the referendum that did it in. R.I.P.

[Polar Islandstates]

If they're not given the chance to vote for what they want, then they might vote for other things that they do have a chance to do so instead.

Only 23% want it compared to various step ups of devolution. Fine.
Only 23% want it compared to the status quo? No. That's not what the question asked.

I just gave you first hand anecdotal evidence for my problem with the "only 23% support independence" banner; namely that I know people that will support independence come the referendum because of the possible answers they can give, yes or no. Voting 'yes' would seem to go against the claim that just because they'd prefer DevoMax it means they're against independence.

The AV Referendum was a yes/no question. You would not have been able to accurately convey support for it before hand with a multiple choice poll offering not just "AV" and "status quo" but other FTV options as well.

Check the thread topic.

Good advice. Maybe then we shouldn't hold so dearly the results of a poll in which the thread topic wasn't the question? Try as you might, and you really are trying I'll give you that, you are not going to convince me that that poll asking for a response on a sliding scale of devolution and independence is asking the same yes or no question that either the thread topic or the referendum are asking.

That poll shows that independence isn't the first choice of a majority of Scots. Can't argue with those numbers. But the first choice isn't going to be on the table. Not at this referendum, anyway. The poll simply doesn't accommodate one way or the other for which way people are going to go when their first choice isn't an option anymore, and you're not going to convince me otherwise.

Its a hell of a jump from "23% of people's favourite colour is blue, and 11% of people's favourite colour is red" to "More people prefer red to blue".

[Ostroeuropa]

Seems consistent to me.
Check google trends.
The less people actually hear about or look up scottish independence, the more likely they are to support it.

What does "Agree negotiate on independence" mean?

Well, there was an 11% drop, so I guess there's a lot of your side using shitty arguments.

Sometimes they get pretty close together, mmm. Infact, aren't there times like the end of 2011 where with 38% for and 23% don't know, where you've failed to convince 61% of the population? I mean, speaking of consistently convince, it seems like there's a lot of people you aren't able to convince.

Ever since the referendum, we've been consistently pwning since the reporting HASNT STOPPED.

Consistently pwning? What colour is the sky in your world, pray tell?

This referendum will kill scottish independence.

After 300 years in the Union and many hundreds more before of trying to kill Scottish independence, it was finally the referendum that did it in. R.I.P.

As I said, the 11% drop coincides with a lack of debate and reporting on the subject. The less the subject is reported on and debated, the more support for independence climbs.
You'll notice that the IDK's have remained fairly steady, while the Support for independence has dropped and support for unity has grown.
That means people supporting independence have become either IDK's or Supporters for unity. I'm inclined to think that Independence supporters have been shaken and became IDK's, while the IDK's have switched to unity.
The poll numbers show consistent pwnage.

[Kvatchdom]

If they vote yes, then they vote yes. If it's a bad idea, it's their own fault. However, SNP's idea of independence is more colonialism than actual independence.

[Ostroeuropa]

You'll need to explain how since the referendum was announced and reporting/debate has reached it's peak, support for independence has fallen consistently.

[Souseiseki]

As I said, the 11% drop coincides with a lack of debate and reporting on the subject. The less the subject is reported on and debated, the more support for independence climbs.

Prove it. For the side that has a proven track record of suppressing documents that disagree with them you have some nerve.

You'll notice that the IDK's have remained fairly steady, while the Support for independence has dropped and support for unity has grown.

Good job on all those people you're consistently failing to convince.

Di you miss the part where support for Independence rose and support for "unity" fell? Will you ever grasp the flaws in trying to use fluctuating polls to prove that your side is totally right and winning with good arguments. Look at how good our arguments are. Once we convince you you don't go back!

That means people supporting independence have become either IDK's or Supporters for unity. I'm inclined to think that Independence supporters have been shaken and became IDK's, while the IDK's have switched to unity.

Actually, you may wish to note on your chart from after October 2009 to after August 2011 where Unity fell by 8 (46 > 38) points, Independence rose by 8 (31 > 37) points and don't know remained the same (23 > 23). Since don't know remained the same, there's only one place that rise in support could have came from. Mmmmm.

The poll numbers show consistent pwnage.

Pwnage? This isn't a fucking game.

[Tagmatium]

If they vote yes, then they vote yes. If it's a bad idea, it's their own fault. However, SNP's idea of independence is more colonialism than actual independence.

How so?

[Ostroeuropa]

As I said, the 11% drop coincides with a lack of debate and reporting on the subject. The less the subject is reported on and debated, the more support for independence climbs.

Prove it. For the side that has a proven track record of suppressing documents that disagree with them you have some nerve.

You'll notice that the IDK's have remained fairly steady, while the Support for independence has dropped and support for unity has grown.

Good job on all those people you're consistently failing to convince.

Di you miss the part where support for Independence rose and support for "unity" fell? Will you ever grasp the flaws in trying to use fluctuating polls to prove that your side is totally right and winning with good arguments. Look at how good our arguments are. Once we convince you you don't go back!

That means people supporting independence have become either IDK's or Supporters for unity. I'm inclined to think that Independence supporters have been shaken and became IDK's, while the IDK's have switched to unity.

Actually, you may wish to note on your chart from after October 2009 to after August 2011 where Unity fell by 8 (46 > 38) points, Independence rose by 8 (31 > 37) points and don't know remained the same (23 > 23). Since don't know remained the same, there's only one place that rise in support could have came from. Mmmmm.

The poll numbers show consistent pwnage.

Pwnage? This isn't a fucking game.

I do not suppress documents.
Some people are too far gone to be convinced, luckily they aren't a majority.
Again, if you look at the dates, you'll notice that support for unity only falls when Scottish Independence is a non-issue that doesn't receive news coverage.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q= ... nce&cmpt=q

^
See the total lack of reporting in the months where scottish independence has majority support.
See as soon as the reporting starts, so does the collapse of independence support.

[Souseiseki]

You'll need to explain how since the referendum was announced and reporting/debate has reached it's peak, support for independence has fallen consistently.

Yes, truly the debate and reporting has reached it's peak. With the Yes and No campaigns in full swing, we're getting debate shoved down our faces every day.

If you want, I could explain it the same way we can explain how attitudes towards the disabled and people on benefits have changed despite (or because?) most of the reporting and government pushing has been utter bullshit.

[Polar Islandstates]

Again, if you look at the dates, you'll notice that support for unity only falls when Scottish Independence is a non-issue that doesn't receive news coverage.

How is it you're claiming that's a good thing for your side?

When the issue isn't in the news and the comparisons between the two potential futures aren't being discussed, the support for Unity falls. So, when there isn't any scaremongering, people are free to make up their own minds, yes? Who is it that's putting it into the news in the first place? The Yes or the No camps? I could just as easily argue that support for No grows when its in the news because the No camps are forced to do some more scaremongering when they see the polls falling as people make their own decisions for themselves.

The fact is, neither you nor I can conclusively prove that this is a good thing for either side, so why are you under the illusion it proves that independence=bad?

[Ostroeuropa]

You'll need to explain how since the referendum was announced and reporting/debate has reached it's peak, support for independence has fallen consistently.

Yes, truly the debate and reporting has reached it's peak. With the Yes and No campaigns in full swing, we're getting debate shoved down our faces every day.

If you want, I could explain it the same way we can explain how attitudes towards the disabled and people on benefits have changed despite (or because?) most of the reporting and government pushing has been utter bullshit.

Highest point thus far would be better.
And since the SNP won't shut up about it, and the unity campaign hasn't even got going yet, I fail to see how the SNP could possibly get more momentum, while the Unity campaign hasn't even begun in earnest.

[Ostroeuropa]

Again, if you look at the dates, you'll notice that support for unity only falls when Scottish Independence is a non-issue that doesn't receive news coverage.

How is it you're claiming that's a good thing for your side?

When the issue isn't in the news and the comparisons between the two potential futures aren't being discussed, the support for Unity falls. So, when there isn't any scaremongering, people are free to make up their own minds, yes? Who is it that's putting it into the news in the first place? The Yes or the No camps? I could just as easily argue that support for No grows when its in the news because the No camps are forced to do some more scaremongering when they see the polls falling as people make their own decisions for themselves.

The fact is, neither you nor I can conclusively prove that this is a good thing for either side, so why are you under the illusion it proves that independence=bad?

When the only people that are talking about it are the SNP, support grows.
When the others decide to humor Salmond and give him his time in the national spotlight and point out that actually, he's full of shit and independence would be terrible, support plummets. Then they go back to ignoring him while he goes around and doesn't shut up about it for another couple of years.
When people get spammed by ONLY independence rhetoric, the support for independence grows. When the unity campaign even briefly rears its head, it plummets. It's been this way for a long time.
I never said it meant independence = bad. Just that our arguments are better.
I think independence is bad for other reasons.

[Polar Islandstates]

So it does matter who's doing the talking at the time as to which way the poll goes? That's interesting given you said just now that any kind of coverage leads to support falling.

When people get spammed by ONLY independence rhetoric, the support for independence grows. When the unity campaign even briefly rears its head, it plummets. It's been this way for a long time.
I never said it meant independence = bad. Just that our arguments are better.

If it goes up when the Yes camp are talking and goes down when the No camp is talking then I think that shows that a lot of people haven't made up their minds, actually, not that the No camp's arguments are any better than the Yes camp's. They can't be, if support increases again when the Yes camp start talking again.

[Souseiseki]

Prove it. For the side that has a proven track record of suppressing documents that disagree with them you have some nerve.


Good job on all those people you're consistently failing to convince.

Di you miss the part where support for Independence rose and support for "unity" fell? Will you ever grasp the flaws in trying to use fluctuating polls to prove that your side is totally right and winning with good arguments. Look at how good our arguments are. Once we convince you you don't go back!



Actually, you may wish to note on your chart from after October 2009 to after August 2011 where Unity fell by 8 (46 > 38) points, Independence rose by 8 (31 > 37) points and don't know remained the same (23 > 23). Since don't know remained the same, there's only one place that rise in support could have came from. Mmmmm.



Pwnage? This isn't a fucking game.

I do not suppress documents.
Some people are too far gone to be convinced, luckily they aren't a majority.
Again, if you look at the dates, you'll notice that support for unity only falls when Scottish Independence is a non-issue that doesn't receive news coverage.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q= ... endence%22

^
See the total lack of reporting in the months where scottish independence has majority support.
See as soon as the reporting starts, so does the collapse of independence support.

You may not. But your Unity pals do.

The highest points on your Google trends are May 2011 January 2012. Let's look at your chart now. Hey, aren't the figures between May 2011 and Janurary 2012... Where support for independence is highest?

Yes, and as soon as the reporting started on the horrible benefit thieves (who make up like, 277% of benefits claimants) driving their Cadillacs to get their Flat Screen TVs and living their lives of luxury getting paid more than hard workers like me and you started peoples attitudes towards the welfare system took a nose drive. Of course, this did not and does not correlate with reality of living on benefits in any way, but somehow, that didn't seem to have any effect. Reporting, yay!!!

And since the SNP won't shut up about it, and the unity campaign hasn't even got going yet, I fail to see how the SNP could possibly get more momentum, while the Unity campaign hasn't even begun in earnest.

Neither campaign has really went into full-swing, if they've started at all. Hope this helps.

[Ostroeuropa]

So it does matter who's doing the talking at the time as to which way the poll goes? That's interesting given you said just now that any kind of coverage leads to support falling.

Debate and coverage. You can't have a debate if only one side is talking.
And typically it isn't the ISSUE of scottish independence being covered, it's other issues, but Salmond always finds a way to wedge in a quip or two about independence.

[Polar Islandstates]

So it does matter who's doing the talking at the time as to which way the poll goes? That's interesting given you said just now that any kind of coverage leads to support falling.

Debate and coverage. You can't have a debate if only one side is talking.
And typically it isn't the ISSUE of scottish independence being covered, it's other issues, but Salmond always finds a way to wedge in a quip or two about independence.

Damn those politicians, always talking about things that matter to them and waffling on about their party manifestos. How dare they, right?

[Ostroeuropa]

I do not suppress documents.
Some people are too far gone to be convinced, luckily they aren't a majority.
Again, if you look at the dates, you'll notice that support for unity only falls when Scottish Independence is a non-issue that doesn't receive news coverage.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q= ... endence%22

^
See the total lack of reporting in the months where scottish independence has majority support.
See as soon as the reporting starts, so does the collapse of independence support.

You may not. But your Unity pals do.

The highest points on your Google trends are May 2011 January 2012. Let's look at your chart now. Hey, aren't the figures between May 2011 and Janurary 2012... Where support for independence is highest?

Yes, and as soon as the reporting started on the horrible benefit thieves (who make up like, 277% of benefits claimants) driving their Cadillacs to get their Flat Screen TVs and living their lives of luxury getting paid more than hard workers like me and you started peoples attitudes towards the welfare system took a nose drive. Of course, this did not and does not correlate with reality of living on benefits in any way, but somehow, that didn't seem to have any effect. Reporting, yay!!!

And since the SNP won't shut up about it, and the unity campaign hasn't even got going yet, I fail to see how the SNP could possibly get more momentum, while the Unity campaign hasn't even begun in earnest.

Neither campaign has really went into full-swing, if they've started at all. Hope this helps.

I fucked up with that one by the way. It only shows google trends not reporting. Please check the edited link which also shows reporting and you'll notice your point no longer stands.

[Souseiseki]

when people get spammed with only independence rhetoric support grows, this is because they're the only ones taking!
when people get spammed with only unionist rhetoric support falls (possibly because we managed to get most of the big outlets who are based in london supporting the status quo, probably because of our good arguments, heh), this is because our arguments are PWNAGE.

[Ostroeuropa]

Debate and coverage. You can't have a debate if only one side is talking.
And typically it isn't the ISSUE of scottish independence being covered, it's other issues, but Salmond always finds a way to wedge in a quip or two about independence.

Damn those politicians, always talking about things that matter to them and waffling on about their party manifestos. How dare they, right?

I agree it's to be expected. But that doesn't alter the fact that only one side has been using it's rhetoric for a while and thats when support for independence grew. Support for unity began crushing their arguements as soon as reporting and debate began.

[Souseiseki]

You may not. But your Unity pals do.

The highest points on your Google trends are May 2011 January 2012. Let's look at your chart now. Hey, aren't the figures between May 2011 and Janurary 2012... Where support for independence is highest?

Yes, and as soon as the reporting started on the horrible benefit thieves (who make up like, 277% of benefits claimants) driving their Cadillacs to get their Flat Screen TVs and living their lives of luxury getting paid more than hard workers like me and you started peoples attitudes towards the welfare system took a nose drive. Of course, this did not and does not correlate with reality of living on benefits in any way, but somehow, that didn't seem to have any effect. Reporting, yay!!!



Neither campaign has really went into full-swing, if they've started at all. Hope this helps.

I fucked up with that one by the way. It only shows google trends not reporting. Please check the edited link which also shows reporting and you'll notice your point no longer stands.

I don't see the difference. Now you have a little orange line that sort of follows the blue one?

No really, let's discuss all the reporting/debate that's going on right now with other issues. Most of it is basically selectively published lies, but there's REPORTING!