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Why do we see no other intelligent civilizations? (Fermi)

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

Why do there seem to be no other intelligent space-faring civilizations?

Civilization destroyed by natural disaster (asteroids, plague, supernova etc.) before space colonization
1
1%
Civilizations destroy themselves with technology before space travel
9
8%
Genetic mutation causes widespread die off before space travel
0
No votes
Evolution to and conditions for intelligent life is rare to nonexistent
32
29%
Tool/Technology using intelligent life is rare to nonexistent
7
6%
Other lifeforms are so alien as not to even evolve a recognizable civilization (ocean bound for instance)
10
9%
A dominant civilization has killed off intelligent civilizations or they killed off each other
2
2%
It is not safe for other intelligent civilizations to communicate because there is some intelligent threat
8
7%
Earth is intentionally isolated either as some kind of "wilderness reserve" or because of a "Prime Directive" policy.
29
27%
Humanity is the only intelligent life in the Universe either because of God or because we are in a Matrix.
11
10%
 
Total votes : 109

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Aerion
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Why do we see no other intelligent civilizations? (Fermi)

Postby Aerion » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:10 pm

Basically discussing the Fermi Paradox (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) and the Great Filter (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Filter) with further points below.


Nick Bostrom is the director of Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, which is working on some fascinating questions that almost cross into the line of sci-fi. (Check out http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ ) They published a book called "Global Catastrophic Risks" which analyzes "Global catastrophic risks are risks that seriously threaten human well-being on a global scale. An immensely diverse collection of events could constitute global catastrophes: potential factors range from volcanic eruptions to pandemic infections, nuclear accidents to worldwide tyrannies, out-of-control scientific experiments to climatic changes, and cosmic hazards to economic collapse."

Nick Bostrom writes in an essay entitled "Where Are They? Why I hope the search for extraterrestial life finds nothing" why he hopes we find nothing because of what he calls a "Great Filter". The Great Filter that prevents other civilizations entering space might be behind us, or ahead of us he states. Such as the improbability of evolution of intelligent life in our history. The Great Filter ahead of us gets more interesting.


He says "The other possibility is that the Great Filter is after us, in our future. This would mean that there is some great improbability that prevents almost all technological civilizations at our current human stage of development from progressing to the point where they engage in large‐scale space‐colonization and make their presence known to other technological civilizations. For example, it might be that any sufficiently technologically advanced civilization discovers some technology—perhaps some very powerful weapons technology—that causes its extinction."

He feels that if there were space traveling civilizations anywhere near us we would have already found it, or it us. Through either a probe, radio waves, or some observable event. He does not rule out the possibility that advanced civilizations have chosen to hide themselves from us, but considers it unlikely. He explains why he feels if space faring civilizations exist we would have encountered them or be able to see them.

In relation to why we would see space faring civilizations if existent, "First, life here on Earth manifests a very strong tendency to spread wherever it can. On our planet, life has spread to every nook and cranny that can sustain it: East, West, North, and South; land, water, and air; desert, tropic, and arctic ice; underground rocks, hydrothermal vents, and radioactive waste dumps; there are even living beings inside the bodies of other living beings. This empirical finding is of course entirely consonant with what one would expect on the basis of elementary evolutionary theory. Second, if we consider our own species in particular, we also find that it has spread to every part of the planet, and we even have even established a presence in space, at vast expense, with the international space station. Third, there is an obvious reason for an advanced civilization that has the technology to go into space relatively cheaply to do so: namely, that’s where most of the resources are. Land, minerals, energy, negentropy, matter: all abundant out there yet limited on any one home planet. These resources could be used to support a growing population and to construct giant temples or supercomputers or whatever structures a civilization values. Fourth, even if some advanced civilization were non‐expansionary to begin with, it might change its mind after a hundred years or fifty thousand years—a delay too short to matter. Fifth, even if some advanced civilization chose to remain non‐expansionist forever, it would still not make any difference if there were at least one other civilization out there that at some point opted to launch a colonization process: that expansionary civilization would then be the one whose probes, colonies, or descendants would fill the galaxy. It takes but one match to start a fire; only one expansionist civilization to launch the colonization of the universe."
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Divair
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Postby Divair » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:12 pm

We've been observing space and attempting to communicate with other species for, what, 100 years at most?


We've barely touched the surface of the universe.

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Postby Aerion » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:13 pm

Divair wrote:We've been observing space and attempting to communicate with other species for, what, 100 years at most?


We've barely touched the surface of the universe.


Though what about this point.

In relation to why we would see space faring civilizations if existent Nick Bostrom says, "First, life here on Earth manifests a very strong tendency to spread wherever it can. On our planet, life has spread to every nook and cranny that can sustain it: East, West, North, and South; land, water, and air; desert, tropic, and arctic ice; underground rocks, hydrothermal vents, and radioactive waste dumps; there are even living beings inside the bodies of other living beings. This empirical finding is of course entirely consonant with what one would expect on the basis of elementary evolutionary theory. Second, if we consider our own species in particular, we also find that it has spread to every part of the planet, and we even have even established a presence in space, at vast expense, with the international space station. Third, there is an obvious reason for an advanced civilization that has the technology to go into space relatively cheaply to do so: namely, that’s where most of the resources are. Land, minerals, energy, negentropy, matter: all abundant out there yet limited on any one home planet. These resources could be used to support a growing population and to construct giant temples or supercomputers or whatever structures a civilization values. Fourth, even if some advanced civilization were non‐expansionary to begin with, it might change its mind after a hundred years or fifty thousand years—a delay too short to matter. Fifth, even if some advanced civilization chose to remain non‐expansionist forever, it would still not make any difference if there were at least one other civilization out there that at some point opted to launch a colonization process: that expansionary civilization would then be the one whose probes, colonies, or descendants would fill the galaxy. It takes but one match to start a fire; only one expansionist civilization to launch the colonization of the universe."
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Tsuntion
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Postby Tsuntion » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:14 pm

Space is big.

Edit: Bigger than Nick Bostrom thinks. It isn't just big, it's big-big. Very big. It has much bigness.
Last edited by Tsuntion on Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Divair » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:15 pm

Aerion wrote:
Divair wrote:We've been observing space and attempting to communicate with other species for, what, 100 years at most?


We've barely touched the surface of the universe.


Though what about this point.

In relation to why we would see space faring civilizations if existent Nick Bostrom says, "First, life here on Earth manifests a very strong tendency to spread wherever it can. On our planet, life has spread to every nook and cranny that can sustain it: East, West, North, and South; land, water, and air; desert, tropic, and arctic ice; underground rocks, hydrothermal vents, and radioactive waste dumps; there are even living beings inside the bodies of other living beings. This empirical finding is of course entirely consonant with what one would expect on the basis of elementary evolutionary theory. Second, if we consider our own species in particular, we also find that it has spread to every part of the planet, and we even have even established a presence in space, at vast expense, with the international space station. Third, there is an obvious reason for an advanced civilization that has the technology to go into space relatively cheaply to do so: namely, that’s where most of the resources are. Land, minerals, energy, negentropy, matter: all abundant out there yet limited on any one home planet. These resources could be used to support a growing population and to construct giant temples or supercomputers or whatever structures a civilization values. Fourth, even if some advanced civilization were non‐expansionary to begin with, it might change its mind after a hundred years or fifty thousand years—a delay too short to matter. Fifth, even if some advanced civilization chose to remain non‐expansionist forever, it would still not make any difference if there were at least one other civilization out there that at some point opted to launch a colonization process: that expansionary civilization would then be the one whose probes, colonies, or descendants would fill the galaxy. It takes but one match to start a fire; only one expansionist civilization to launch the colonization of the universe."

Again, the universe is absurdly huge. There quite possibly could be expansionist civilizations out there. We just haven't found them.

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Postby Nightkill the Emperor » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:16 pm

They're smart enough not to come.
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Postby Aerion » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:19 pm

Divair wrote:We've been observing space and attempting to communicate with other species for, what, 100 years at most?


We've barely touched the surface of the universe.


Divair wrote:Again, the universe is absurdly huge. There quite possibly could be expansionist civilizations out there. We just haven't found them.


Yet we are already coming up with advanced methods of detecting civilizations on other planets such as analyzing radio and other signatures to look at the makeup of their climate, and see if their climate has been artificially altered by industrial activity as ours has. You would imagine a civilization advanced enough to enter space would be advanced enough to detect intelligent civilizations at various levels or at the very least our level where we have visibly altered our planet. They would even be able to arguably send out interstellar AI or robotic probes with advanced detection equipment as we are sending out probes on a primitive level.


Perhaps we are so small as to barely be noticeable to other civilizations. We ourselves are like a needle in a haystack.
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Postby Divair » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:20 pm

Aerion wrote:
Divair wrote:We've been observing space and attempting to communicate with other species for, what, 100 years at most?


We've barely touched the surface of the universe.


Divair wrote:Again, the universe is absurdly huge. There quite possibly could be expansionist civilizations out there. We just haven't found them.


Yet we are already coming up with advanced methods of detecting civilizations on other planets such as analyzing radio and other signatures to look at the makeup of their climate, and see if their climate has been artificially altered by industrial activity as ours has. You would imagine a civilization advanced enough to enter space would be advanced enough to detect intelligent civilizations at various levels or at the very least our level where we have visibly altered our planet. They would even be able to arguably send out interstellar AI or robotic probes with advanced detection equipment as we are sending out probes on a primitive level.


Perhaps we are so small as to barely be noticeable to other civilizations. We ourselves are like a needle in a haystack.

Maybe. Or they haven't reached us yet. Or they don't care. Or they're on the other side of the universe and haven't found us.

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Reggae Magmia
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Postby Reggae Magmia » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:22 pm

If other intelligent civilizations exist, it will certainly take longer to find them then the 100 years we've been trying to do so.
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Postby Salandriagado » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:23 pm

None of the above. There are many, many reasons why we wouldn't see them. Here's a couple:
1) We have been looking for a pathetically small period of time.
2) They might have come up with a communications solution that doesn't involve horrendously wasteful outpourings of radiation in every single direction.
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Notice that the link is to the notes from a university course on probability. You clearly have nothing beyond the most absurdly simplistic understanding of the subject.
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Postby Manahakatouki » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:24 pm

We lack the sufficient technology to be able to tell intelligent life forms from a bunch of rocks orbiting a star...

We haven't been contacted because we live in a very big universe that can easily seperate alien species due to its size...
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Postby Saruhan » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:25 pm

Maybe we're just among the first intelligent species to use our particular version of electronic communication, there could be others out there that just don't use radio waves
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Postby Call to power » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:32 pm

The universe is impossibly large and impossibly hostile. You can talk about the spread of life on Earth all you want but you are unlikely to get very far throwing grass seeds at the Moon. Furthermore we fundamentally lack any information on the subject other than our own limited scope.

Real life isn't like Star Trek and all that.

Salandriagado wrote:2) They might have come up with a communications solution that doesn't involve horrendously wasteful outpourings of radiation in every single direction.


Why would it be wasteful if the Lizard men were actually looking to send a message out in every single direction?
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Postby Lordieth » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:38 pm

The conclusion I generally draw from discussions on the probability of intelligent extra-terrestrial life is that it does exist, but the probability of it existing is so low that given the size of the Universe, such civilisations are too far away to observe directly, indirectly, or even to contact at this time.

We may one day receive communication from a civilisation that went extinct hundreds of millions of years ago.

My idea of the Universe is of one filled with a dozen or so "advanced" civilisations in some ways similar to ours, too wondering why they've never made contact with other civilisations. I also think we're one of the luckier ones. I also believe many civilisations would and have died out long before ever reaching our level of technological advancement. Life on Earth has been on the brink of extinction a few times.

There are so many things that could destroy a civilisation. I don't think life is rare; life that survives is rare.
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Postby The Kangaroo Republic » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:38 pm

Because the closest extrasolar planet to our eart is Alpha Centauri Bb, and even that one is already 4.37 light years away, and that one isn't even in the "goldilocks" zone, which is the habitable ring around a sun that a planet has to just perhaps be able (not even have to) contain life (not even intelligent life). The closest extrasolar planet in the goldilocks zone? Gliese 667 22.1 light years away.

Good luck trying to observe intelligent life from that distance.
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Postby Khadgar » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:39 pm

If there's other intelligent life in the universe they're too far to come see us, unless they're in the same galaxy. Of course if they were in this galaxy we'd have physical evidence of their existence in the form of a probe sitting around if they're at least 4 million years older than us. Given our galaxy is 13 billion years old, the odds that any other intelligent life would be older than us, significantly older, yet we don't see evidence of them. Why is unknown, but the simplest explanation is that they simply don't exist.

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Postby Xarithis Arxanis » Sun Dec 16, 2012 3:53 pm

It's the Reapers, man. All space-faring life was wiped out centuries ago, and new races are only now thinking about filling the void.


It might be that most civilizations wipe themselves out before interstellar travel, and those whose progress past that point are separated by such distances that they only rarely come in contact with each other.
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Postby Suidwes-Afrika » Sun Dec 16, 2012 4:01 pm

I choose to believe that the universe revolves around humanity, for the same ignorant reason that men once believed that the sun revolved around the earth.
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Postby Lordieth » Sun Dec 16, 2012 4:03 pm

Suidwes-Afrika wrote:I choose to believe that the universe revolves around humanity, for the same ignorant reason that men once believed that the sun revolved around the earth.


From a scientific standpoint, every point is the centre of the Universe, so in a way, the Universe does revolve around us. Although revolve may be the wrong word. Expands, maybe. The Universe expands around us. That sounds about right. :p
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Postby Salandriagado » Sun Dec 16, 2012 4:22 pm

Lordieth wrote:
Suidwes-Afrika wrote:I choose to believe that the universe revolves around humanity, for the same ignorant reason that men once believed that the sun revolved around the earth.


From a scientific standpoint, every point is the centre of the Universe, so in a way, the Universe does revolve around us. Although revolve may be the wrong word. Expands, maybe. The Universe expands around us. That sounds about right. :p


Or, depending on how you look at it, that the entire universe is running away from us.
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Salandriagado wrote:
Notice that the link is to the notes from a university course on probability. You clearly have nothing beyond the most absurdly simplistic understanding of the subject.
By choosing 1, you no longer have 0 probability of choosing 1. End of subject.

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Postby Divair » Sun Dec 16, 2012 4:24 pm

Salandriagado wrote:
Lordieth wrote:
From a scientific standpoint, every point is the centre of the Universe, so in a way, the Universe does revolve around us. Although revolve may be the wrong word. Expands, maybe. The Universe expands around us. That sounds about right. :p


Or, depending on how you look at it, that the entire universe is running away from us.

We're ugly.

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Postby Lordieth » Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:03 pm

Divair wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Or, depending on how you look at it, that the entire universe is running away from us.

We're ugly.


So the Universe is giving us the metaphorical and literal cold shoulder? How mean.
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Postby Meryuma » Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:07 pm

The universe is infinitesimally vast and interstellar travel is infinitesimally hard.
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Postby Mavorpen » Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:10 pm

Nightkill the Emperor wrote:They're smart enough not to come.

Then how do they reproduce?
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Postby The USOT » Sun Dec 16, 2012 5:18 pm

Aerion wrote:
Divair wrote:We've been observing space and attempting to communicate with other species for, what, 100 years at most?


We've barely touched the surface of the universe.


Though what about this point.

In relation to why we would see space faring civilizations if existent Nick Bostrom says, "First, life here on Earth manifests a very strong tendency to spread wherever it can. On our planet, life has spread to every nook and cranny that can sustain it: East, West, North, and South; land, water, and air; desert, tropic, and arctic ice; underground rocks, hydrothermal vents, and radioactive waste dumps; there are even living beings inside the bodies of other living beings. This empirical finding is of course entirely consonant with what one would expect on the basis of elementary evolutionary theory. Second, if we consider our own species in particular, we also find that it has spread to every part of the planet, and we even have even established a presence in space, at vast expense, with the international space station. Third, there is an obvious reason for an advanced civilization that has the technology to go into space relatively cheaply to do so: namely, that’s where most of the resources are. Land, minerals, energy, negentropy, matter: all abundant out there yet limited on any one home planet. These resources could be used to support a growing population and to construct giant temples or supercomputers or whatever structures a civilization values. Fourth, even if some advanced civilization were non‐expansionary to begin with, it might change its mind after a hundred years or fifty thousand years—a delay too short to matter. Fifth, even if some advanced civilization chose to remain non‐expansionist forever, it would still not make any difference if there were at least one other civilization out there that at some point opted to launch a colonization process: that expansionary civilization would then be the one whose probes, colonies, or descendants would fill the galaxy. It takes but one match to start a fire; only one expansionist civilization to launch the colonization of the universe."
The point is quite irrelevant though.

For all we know the vast majority of the galaxy is colonised by a space faring species.

Niel Degrasse Tyson sums it up best. The current claims that we are unlikely to find any alien civilisation are the equivelant of going to the sea, taking out a bucket of water and stating "there are no whales in the sea!"
We have scoured so infintissimally small an expanse of the sky that any claims as to how apparent an alien civilisation could be are (at this stage) foolish.
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