IshCong wrote:Shofercia wrote:
Not if Israel does it covertly, via AIPAC. It's the usual Modus Operandi, so I'm a bit surprised why they didn't just run with that, this time.
It may also be that America is largely interested in Iran and Iranian nuclear weapons due to Israel, so they may feel that they have to be somewhat overt about it to make America and Americans understand why they're making a fuss over a nation a depressingly large number of its citizens cannot locate on a map. That said, you do raise a good point here.
America's interested in controlling the Middle East, or at least having a huge say in that region. There are three power centers there - Mecca, Tel Aviv and Teheran. America can topple the government in Mecca on a whim, and US and Israel cooperate somewhat; certainly Israeli cooperation could be better. But Teheran is refusing to take orders from Washington, so it's not hard to guess which country's the target of America's ire. Add to this AIPAC's influence and all of their anti-Iranian campaigns, and, well they're in it to take Iran down a notch. Certainly Obama isn't insane enough to destroy Iran, but he doesn't want Iran to be one of the three power centers in the Middle East.
Iran's also an interesting case for Russia, because it's in the Caucasus Region. Before the cries of "hurr durr Russian Imperialism" that some posters love to make, (you're not one of them, but they need to be preempted,) the Caucasus Region is an integrated region, meaning that whatever happens in one part of the region, affects all of the region. Yeltsin's Government tried to chop off a part of the region during the mid 1990s, and it failed miserably, so you can't. Under the USSR, the RFSFR controlled the North Caucasus Region, and the Georgian, Armenian, Azeri SSRs, as well as Abkhaz ASSR, and South Ossetian, and N-K and some other AOs, along with parts of Iran and Turkey, controlled the South Caucasus Region. Because of the Kurdish situation, and the might of the Red Army, Turkey and Iran agreed not to provoke any conflicts in the South Caucasus Region. Thus the region, with the exception of the time period known as Stalin's Idiocy, was fairly stable. Then Gorbachev conducted his reforms, and the region went to shit in the later 1980s and early 1990s. Now it's pacified again, but because of Iran's presence in that region, Russia cannot ditch Iran altogether, unless there was a way of ensuring that Iran couldn't harm Russia in that region, which is doubtful. However, assuming that Obama can find a way to remove Iran from being a power center, without harming the Caucasian Affair, he might, or might not get Russian support.
Shofercia wrote:IshCong wrote:
They've essentially already been 'caught' here, as it is an open secret. The UN resolution is non-binding, which means Israel is only any closer to being any more 'caught' (which presumably means it being overtly and officially recognized that Israel has nuclear arms) if Israel permits it to be so.
Yeah, but now UN is pressuring Israel to admit weapon inspectors. Israel will probably resist, and lose political capital as a result.
Indeed, and likely that is the whole point of the resolution. While it made sense for Israel to be cagey in times prior, this resolution is likely aimed at causing the situation to be 'more trouble than it is worth'. We shall see how this plays out. At least for now, I don't think Israel will sign the NPT or permit inspectors access. The fall-out from that may decide much.[/quote]
I just think that if Israel's on the verge of a massive PR hit, and we're talking epic proportions here, it might be easier to scrap WMDs and sign NPTs. But you're right, they'll look at the fallout first.




