And Here We Go: Presidential Election Day 2012

[Jinwoy]

I just want to criticise Mr Romney about his "Change on day one" promise/slogan/thing where once the first week has passed, nothing has changed.
This is going to be terribly, awfully fun. >:P

(Removed my sig, too big for such a small post.)

[Death Metal]

I just want to criticise Mr Romney about his "Change on day one" promise/slogan/thing where once the first week has passed, nothing has changed.
This is going to be terribly, awfully fun. >:P

(Removed my sig, too big for such a small post.)

Yeah, but to laugh at that means 3 years 51 other weeks of nothing happening. Not worth it.

[Reploid Productions]

Get ready for an azz-kicking tomorrow, liberals.

This. Let's stop it sooner rather than later. While not yet at a warn-worthy level, the thread OP does specifically mention gloating and advises against it. In addition, from moderation's prior experience dealing with the 2004 and 2008 elections, do not expect any particular leniency if the trolling, flaming, and flamebaiting gets going.

We want this election day to remain civil, and will not take kindly to anyone that attempts to disrupt that. Comically oversized hammers will be deployed quite readily if users' behavior make it necessary.


~Evil Forum Empress Rep Prod the Ninja Mod
~She who wields the Banhammer; master of the mighty moderation no-dachi Kiritateru Teikoku

[Daistallia 2104]

I am expecting a Democratic Presidency and Senate, with a Republican House.
Which means the Parties will just have to learn to compromise, OR accept the inevitability of a combination of spending cuts and tax raises.

Either will work from my POV.
The first means that the Parties learn through their brain, and the second means they learn through pain. If your Idea for Policy does not have overwhelming support, chuck it into the skip.

That assumes they don't take the third path - continue letting it all go to hell and blaim the other party. It's worked long enough that the elites think it will work forever.

[TaQud]

Go Ohio! You can decide which president gets in office!

[Tubbsalot]

Go Ohio! You can decide which president gets in office!

They really can't, but in any case, the polls indicate they're going to vote Obama. And we have no reason to doubt the accuracy of those polls.

[Alien Space Bats]

ASB, the floor, and this thread, are yours. Take us home.

OK, let's talk about a couple of things before I get back to my own thread and finish my analysis of early voting patterns...

I. Everybody Talks About the Weather, But Nobody Does Anything About It

Weather has long been acknowledged as a factor in elections. Let's take a look at today's weather map:

---

In Wisconsin:

We'll see light rain mixed with snow across much of Northern Wisconsin; some places may recieve as much as 1-1½" of snow. Farther south, Madison and Milwaukee will see showers but little if any snow; Green Bay will probably see a mix, with snow showers in the morning and evening.

Traditionally, such weather tends to favor Republicans (due to class differences in the impact of inclement weather); its biggest impact, however, will be on undecided and independent voters. Since Wisconsin still has a fairly large number of undecideds and Mitt Romney needs to pull these undecided voters his way if hewants to win, the weather could be a two-edged sword, especially given the fact that the worst of it will miss the more populous cities of Southern Wisconsin. Still, I'd expect the weather to help the GOP overall - but not by too much.

---

In Florida:

Much of Florida will see thunderstorms, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Central Florida will be the area most strongly impacted by this weather; Tampa Bya, Orlando, and Jacksonville will all be hit at various times of the day, with the Gulf Coast clearing by late afternoon and early evening. Right now it looks like both the Panhandle and South Florida will escape precipitation, although it's possible that the eastern end of the Panhandle could catch a stray squall.

Those areas hit by heavy rain will almost certainly see reduced turnout; but the Democratic strongholds in South Florida won't, and that should minimize the impact of this weather on the election. Still, it could be worse for Republicans: The entire State could be sunny, which would allow the Democratic turnout machine to operate at full tilt.

---

In North Carolina:

Parts of North Carolina will see scattered showers, especially in the Appalachians and along the coast. In Central North Carolina, these showers should clear by afternoon. In no place will they be heavy.

On the whole, I'd expect very little effect from this weather; the caveat is that if North Carolina is as close as I expect it to be, anything that scares off poorer voters will help the Republicans. On the other hand, as noted above, inclement weather has the greatest effect on undecided voters, and if there's one thing polling has made clear in North Carolina, it's that virtually no one is undecided.

---

The weather should generally be fine most everywhere else, at least within the "battleground" States. Clear weather generally works to the benefit of Democrats, so this can't be good news for Romney.

---

II. Hurry Up and Wait

I have a sneaking feeling that it's going to be a very long night - but maybe not for the usual reasons.

Simply put, those States most profoundly impacted by Hurricane Sandy are going to need more time to post their returns - and that's going to affect the usual narrative.

Here are the usual times when polls close and the networks feel free to start calling State races:

6:00 PM EST (2300 UTC 11.07.2012) - Kentucky and Indiana

7:00 PM EST (0000 UTC 11.08.2012) - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia

7:30 PM EST (0030 UTC 11.08.2012) - North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

8:00 PM EST (0100 UTC 11.08.2012) - Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Texas

8:30 PM EST (0130 UTC 11.08.2012) - Arkansas

9:00 PM EST (0200 UTC 11.08.2012) - Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming

10:00 PM EST (0300 UTC 11.08.2012) - Iowa, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Utah

11:00 PM EST (0400 UTC 11.08.2012) - California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

12:00 AM EST (0500 UTC 11.08.2012) - Alaska

Now, taking into account which States are likely to be called quickly and which won't be, let's think about how the map will get colored in:

6:00 PM EST (2300 UTC 11.07.2012) - Kentucky (8) and Indiana (11) for Romney

Romney 19, Obama 0

7:00 PM EST (0000 UTC 11.08.2012) - Georgia (16) and South Carolina (9) for Romney; Vermont (3) for Obama

Romney 44, Obama 3

7:30 PM EST (0030 UTC 11.08.2012) - None

Romney 44, Obama 3

8:00 PM EST (0100 UTC 11.08.2012) - Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), and Texas (38) for Romney; Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Illinois (20), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), and Rhode Island (4) for Obama

Romney 115, Obama 54

8:30 PM EST (0130 UTC 11.08.2012) - Arkansas (6) for Romney

Romney 121, Obama 54

9:00 PM EST (0200 UTC 11.08.2012) - Arizona (11), Kansas (6), Louisiana (8), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), and Wyoming (3) for Romney; Minnesota (10) and New Mexico (5) for Obama

Romney 160, Obama 69

9:30 PM EST (0230 UTC 11.08.2012) - Missouri (10) for Romney; Maine (2), Maine's 1st Congressional District (1), and Michigan (16) for Obama

Romney 170, Obama 88

10:00 PM EST (0300 UTC 11.08.2012) - Idaho (4), Montana (3) and Utah (6) for Romney; Nevada (6) for Obama

Romney 183, Obama 94

10:30 PM EST (0330 UTC 11.08.2012) - West Virginia (5) for Romney; Pennsylvania (20) for Obama

Romney 188, Obama 114

11:00 PM EST (0400 UTC 11.08.2012) - California (55), Hawaii (4), Oregon (7), and Washington (12) for Obama

Romney 188, Obama 192

11:30 PM EST (0430 UTC 11.08.2012) - Connecticut (7) and New York (29) for Obama

Romney 188, Obama 228

12:00 AM EST (0500 UTC 11.08.2012) - Alaska (3) for Romney; New Jersey (14) for Obama

Romney 191, Obama 242

Unknown - Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Maine's 2nd Congressional District (1), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10)

See the fundamental problem?

Because at least 50 EV's from the East Coast that would normally get called between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM EST will probably not be called until after 11:00 PM EST, there's going to come a point around 9:30 PM or so when it's going to look like Romney is winning by a landslide. The networks aren't going to want to call any of the "battleground" States before New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut post their returns because that will muddy the narrative (i.e., if will make it look like it was the East Coast that decided the election and not the "swing" States). Yet at the same time the networks aren't going to want viewers who have to work on Wednesday shutting off their TV's with the wrong idea about who's winning the race (or by how much).

For that reason, I'd expect a "slowdown" from the networks when it comes to calling States after 8:00 PM, mainly for the purpose of avoiding the creation of a false narrative in the minds of viewers. Which, of course, means that any concession or victory speeches aren't going to be made until the wee hours of the morning.

[Blouman Empire]

I. Everybody Talks About the Weather, But Nobody Does Anything About It

Weather has long been acknowledged as a factor in elections. Let's take a look at today's weather map:

(Image)

I find it amusing that smoke and haze needs to be included on the scale there. Surprised they haven't included smog.

[Blouman Empire]

I am slightly annoyed that I have work tomorrow so I will be asleep in about 2 hours time missing out on most of the voting and then at work during the counting.

Currently watching CNN, they have mentioned that there are already court cases scheduled to be heard on the Ohio prepolling elections.

They also keep talking about Dixville-Hutch NH, and that it was 5-5 for the township. I don't think anyone really should be looking at that so maybe the commentator just likes the name.

With New Yorkers sending in their vote via fax or email should end well.

[Blouman Empire]

Yes. Right now he has strong views as to who should win the Melbourne Cup.

Now that's really the race that stops the nation.

The only race worth watching on the first Tuesday of November

Well, I convinced some guy in FL to vote for Romney instead of Gary Johnson last night.. So I feel that I've done something to advance Romney's upcoming victory.

Can't wait to see Florida and Ohio go red

That's ok. I convinced a friend to vote for Obama instead of Romney. He is a good guy but a bit of tool and gets swayed by political BS. Romney spews some good stuff if you don't bother looking at what he says.

That makes him a good politician.

[Northern Dominus]

Go Ohio! You can decide which president gets in office!

Don't encourage them! They keep electing that duplicitous day-glo freak Boehner into office!

[The Archregimancy]

I am slightly annoyed that I have work tomorrow so I will be asleep in about 2 hours time missing out on most of the voting and then at work during the counting.

Currently watching CNN, they have mentioned that there are already court cases scheduled to be heard on the Ohio prepolling elections.

They also keep talking about Dixville-Hutch NH, and that it was 5-5 for the township. I don't think anyone really should be looking at that so maybe the commentator just likes the name.

With New Yorkers sending in their vote via fax or email should end well.

It's actually Dixville Notch.

What's mildly worrying about that 5-5 tie is that Dixville Notch - by tradition the first village to vote on election day - has correctly predicted the winner of the last three presidential elections; so there have been better omens.


I prefer to follow a sporting omen. No, not the Redskins rule (bad news for Obama) or which league wins the World Series (good news for Obama), but rather a tennis omen.

Every time a British man wins the US Open tennis tournament, the Democractic incumbent wins the election in a crushing landslide.

True, the actual cases of British men winning the US Open in a presidential election year are few and far between - in fact it's only happened once before - but Fred Perry ushered in Franklin Roosevelt's 528-8 victory in 1936; so thank you, Andy Murray.

[Ostroeuropa]

Hyperventilating.
Don't you disappoint me america.
Please vote Obama

[Hydesland]

All I know is, a republican victory will be a PR disaster for the united states, even if Romney in terms of policy wont be drastically different; the rest of the world simply do not like republicans, a rich Mormon republican probably even less so.

[Daistallia 2104]

I am slightly annoyed that I have work tomorrow so I will be asleep in about 2 hours time missing out on most of the voting and then at work during the counting.

Good to see a fellow child of the night. I told my boss ages ago I absolutely wouldn't be in today due to working the election. And it's off to bed for me shortly as well, then to HQ to get out some voters all afternoon and evening.

[Frisivisia]

ASB, I love you. You have encompassed the majority of my coverage and commentary during this election. You are NSG's favorite elction coverage, pundit, and now weatherman(woman???).

[Wilgrove]

The polling stations in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire have opened at midnight. The first ballots of election day 2012 have been cast.

MSNBC has called New Hampshire for Barack Obama.

Well.....that was quick.

The latest gallup poll among likely voters gives Romney the edge.

[gets some popcorn]

Get ready for an azz-kicking tomorrow, liberals.

inb4 Obama stole the election.

And the Home Depot guy whining about how if he started Home Depot today there'd only be six of them.

Of course, that's true, but because Home Depot sucks and Lowe's is much better.

I love it when people trot out hyperboles, and the Home Deopot guy is lying out of his ass, he'd have as many store it took to make him millions of dollars if not billions, regardless of who's in The White House.

I read something earlier that Fox News' own poll had Obama retaining.

I guess not even they could believe that Obama was losing so badly in the polls.

ASB, I love you. You have encompassed the majority of my coverage and commentary during this election. You are NSG's favorite elction coverage, pundit, and now weatherman(woman???).

I agree with this.

[Khadgar]

The polling stations in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire have opened at midnight. The first ballots of election day 2012 have been cast.

MSNBC has called New Hampshire for Barack Obama.

Well.....that was quick.

The latest gallup poll among likely voters gives Romney the edge.

[gets some popcorn]

Get ready for an azz-kicking tomorrow, liberals. 8)

inb4 Obama stole the election.

And the Home Depot guy whining about how if he started Home Depot today there'd only be six of them.

Of course, that's true, but because Home Depot sucks and Lowe's is much better. ;)

I love it when people trot out hyperboles, and the Home Deopot guy is lying out of his ass, he'd have as many store it took to make him millions of dollars if not billions, regardless of who's in The White House.

I read something earlier that Fox News' own poll had Obama retaining.

I guess not even they could believe that Obama was losing so badly in the polls.

ASB, I love you. You have encompassed the majority of my coverage and commentary during this election. You are NSG's favorite elction coverage, pundit, and now weatherman(woman???).

I agree with this. :)

I saw Fox last night crowing about a Gallup poll that showed Romney with a 1% lead nationwide. I'm guessing it was the most favorable poll they could find to talk about.

[Wilgrove]

I saw Fox last night crowing about a Gallup poll that showed Romney with a 1% lead nationwide. I'm guessing it was the most favorable poll they could find to talk about.

I'm surprised Fox just doesn't make up numbers, I mean the courts did say that it was legal for Fox News to lie, and the gods know they've been blatant about it in the past, why start trying to be honest now?

[Frisivisia]

I saw Fox last night crowing about a Gallup poll that showed Romney with a 1% lead nationwide. I'm guessing it was the most favorable poll they could find to talk about.

I'm surprised Fox just doesn't make up numbers, I mean the courts did say that it was legal for Fox News to lie, and the gods know they've been blatant about it in the past, why start trying to be honest now?

Later Tonight:

"And so we conclude our Fox News coverage of the election, Romney winning all but 3 electoral votes, all 3 of which were ACORN voter fraud."

[Andaluciae]

Ohio voter here. Hope we get it right for the rest of you.

[Farnhamia]

Well.....that was quick.



inb4 Obama stole the election.



I love it when people trot out hyperboles, and the Home Deopot guy is lying out of his ass, he'd have as many store it took to make him millions of dollars if not billions, regardless of who's in The White House.



I guess not even they could believe that Obama was losing so badly in the polls.



I agree with this.

I saw Fox last night crowing about a Gallup poll that showed Romney with a 1% lead nationwide. I'm guessing it was the most favorable poll they could find to talk about.

I'm not so sure I'd crow about that one, since Gallup had him up by 7 at one point, didn't they?

[Neo Art]

Ohio voter here. Hope we get it right for the rest of you.

If Obama loses I'm blaming it on you.

[Norsklow]

I'm not so sure I'd crow about that one, since Gallup had him up by 7 at one point, didn't they?

I'd neither crow
nor cater-wawl

until the fat lady sings.

Besides, I've got a bet riding on this election!

[Divair]

538 puts Obama at 91.6% of winning.

Today is going to be boring.