Direct Democracy: Propositions 2012 thread!

[Free South Califas]

I recently posted my Pro-Democracy California 2012 Ballot Review and voting guide in my blog, which covers all California statewide propositions, the one proposition in San Diego County, and some San Diego candidate races.

Daistallia 2014 had a good idea with starting a thread on non-presidential elections in the US, but the OP explicitly covers only candidate elections ("races)":

But in addition to the president, on Nov. 6th the US will also be electing 435 Representatives, 33 Senators, 11 state Governors, 2 territorial Governors, and many other state and local officials.

So, lets have at it on the other races!

State propositions of direct democracy can have sweeping effects on our daily lives, due to the fine-grained power states have which the federal government does not. Propositions can also serve as a front line for the culture war in politics--or class war, depending on how you look at it--as a system designed to give voice to the people is often corrupted with big media buys, bypassing the political processes that have built up in the state and federal legislatures.

Propositions require intensive study, separate from the study of candidates. Candidates may or may not follow through on their promises, but propositions do exactly what they say they will, unless cut down by judicial action. I believe that all of these reasons and more justify the existence of a separate thread for propositions. It's a little late in the game, since the US election is tomorrow, but this could feasibly also be a thread for people from other countries to discuss direct-democracy propositions coming up in their jurisdictions, and for postmortem analysis on the days following tomorrow's final vote.

I expound upon many of the propositions in greater detail in the link I gave above, but here's a quick summary of my position on California and San Diego County propositions for 2012:

Prop 30: YES. Unfortunately necessary.
Prop 31: NO. Backhanded Republican ploy.
Prop 32: NO. Right-wing attack; union members can already opt out of expenditures from withheld dues.
Prop 33: NO. Mercury Insurance wants to turn back the clock on important consumer protections.
Prop 34: YES. Abolish the death penalty. Requires further action later to assuage concerns over appeals.
Prop 35: NO. Sneaky, duplicitous legalist and statist push for prison expansion. Civil rights violations.
Prop 36: YES. Abolish the insanely criminal Three Strikes Law. Come on already!
Prop 37: YES. Many scientists including physicist Vandana Shiva support this consumer protection law.
Prop 38: YES. This one sucks, but we're boned if both 30 and 38 fail. Yay democracy!
Prop 39: YES. Close the out-of-state corporate tax loophole.
Referendum 40: YES. The "no" campaign is no longer asking for your vote, so vote YES to avoid an embarrassing and expensive fit of wailing and gnashing of teeth.

San Diego Unified School District Proposition Z: YES. Health good, mold bad.

I'll probably be back with some analysis and opinion on Los Angeles and San Francisco area propositions, and possibly some from other states. (Though I've learned not to get too attached to the possibility of sane results in other states, no offense--it's bad enough here!) For excellent analysis and debate on the California propositions, see today's KPFK 90.7 FM Los Angeles shows "Uprising" and "Letters and Politics". (Last two are audio links.)

However you vote, please do your own research, don't trust anything you receive in the mail, and remember that it's often safest to vote "NO" on propositions and "YES" on referenda (only #40 in CA this year). Proposition 30 in California is an exception; the safest vote there is a YES, because it would protect the existing budget and prevent severe austerity cuts to education and public services.

Please, share your opinions on these and/or any other propositions in your area

[Free South Califas]

Bump. Should have done the OP and the bump way earlier, but there is much to be said about state propositions this year.

[Arumdaum]

We voted on this in school! The only problem was that nobody knew anything about any of the propositions, and my teacher said that the death penalty is cheaper than life in prison (which was wrong).

I'm pretty sure almost everything I don't want to win is going to win, since I live in a Safe Republican district. D:

I really, really, really hope that Prop 32 doesn't pass. It'd be the worst.

[Shofercia]

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=202936&start=25

I was going to bump that thread come voting time

[Free South Califas]

I'll broaden this then, pulling in results from around the States.

---

10:49 pm
CA Results so far

No 	30 	Temporary Taxes to Fund Education 	2,044,285 	(49.0% yes) 	2,125,082 	(51.0% no)
No 	31 	State Budget, State and Local Government 	1,639,862 	(41.8%) 	2,279,599 	(58.2%)
No 	32 	Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction 	1,976,920 	(47.9%) 	2,146,052 	(52.1%)
No 	33 	Auto Insurance Prices Based on Driver History 	1,919,963 	(47.3%) 	2,143,328 	(52.7%)
No 	34 	Death Penalty 	1,821,045 	(44.3%) 	2,289,007 	(55.7%)
Yes 	35 	Human Trafficking 	3,410,470 	(83.1%) 	692,727 	(16.9%)
Yes 	36 	Three Strikes Law 	2,813,620 	(68.5%) 	1,294,898 	(31.5%)
No 	37 	Genetically Engineered Foods Labeling 	1,779,318 	(43.0%) 	2,360,353 	(57.0%)
No 	38 	Tax for Education. Early Childhood Programs 	1,057,362 	(25.8%) 	3,038,538 	(74.2%)
Yes 	39 	Business Tax for Energy Funding 	2,390,428 	(59.1%) 	1,652,989 	(40.9%)
Yes 	40 	Redistricting State Senate 	2,895,948 	(74.0%) 	1,014,907 	(26.0%)
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/ballot-measures/

Note that these results are pretty early for California. Los Angeles County in particular--strongly liberal-and-moderate Democrat--has only seen about 7% of precincts reporting, and the San Francisco will have a late strong showing as well, so there's a massive (in the absolute numbers sense) left-of-center 'vote bomb' that will hit the results in the next few hours. CA results at this time tend to lean further to the right than the final results, so it is expected that:

• Prop 30 is still in play, and could win. Prop 38 will almost certainly be crushed, but billionaire backer Molly Munger's contributions to the No on 30 campaign may have been all too effective.
• Props 32 & 33 could win, but it doesn't look great.
• The death penalty would remain in place if the election ended now, but many anti-death-penalty votes in the San Francisco area have not been counted.
• Disappointingly, Californians opposed to Three Strikes seem to have missed the memo on Prop 35.
• GMO foods are probably going to remain unlabeled, but late results from SF could push it back into play.
• Ending the out-of-state corporate tax loophole seems to be a done deal. Finally!
• Embarrassment over redistricting will happily be avoided, it seems.

Porn viewers across the world may have noticed Los Angeles County Measure B, which would require safer sex (condoms and similar devices) in "adult films". Again, LA County results are very early right now, with only 7% of precincts reporting.

YES: Require safer sex: 324,416 (62.39%)
NO: Status quo: 195,556 (37.61%)
Don't take these for granted, but presumably, the leftish impact of the late vote counts wouldn't hurt this one.
http://rrccmain.co.la.ca.us/0012_County ... _Frame.htm (LA County is voting on two other measures, but their meaning is not obvious from that site. Any Angelenos want to weigh in?)

Posting this now before this gets out of date, then editing in other states' propositions.

---

10:53
Propositions in other states: http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/ballot
Several states are voting to "Limit Obamacare In State". I haven't read about this, but my SO keeps up on this stuff and tells me it "will hurt people". Anyone from these states care to weigh in on these?

ALABAMA		YES 59%; no 41%		projected yes (98% in)
Florida		yes 48%; NO 52%		projected no (98% in)
WYOMING		YES 77%; no 23%		projected yes (98% in)
MONTANA		YES 66%; no 34%		projected yes (30% in)

In a related issue, Floridians have defeated a proposed ban of using public funds for abortion; yes 45%, NO 55% (public funds can be used for abortion). 99% of precincts are reporting.

Cannabis (marijuana) law is another major issue in state propositions today.

Two states voted on whether to allow medical marijuana:

Arkansas	yes 48%; NO 52%		projected no (91% in)
MASSACHUSETTS	YES 63%; no 37%		projected yes (92% in)

Contrariwise, Montana voted to ban medical marijuana: YES 57%; no 43%.

Going further, three states voted on whether to legalize recreational marijuana (i.e., legal to possess weed in general):

COLORADO	YES 54%, no 46%		projected yes (61% in)
Oregon		yes 45%, NO 55%		projected no (56% in)
WASHINGTON	YES 55%, no 45%		projected yes (51% in)

It has been a historic night for same-sex marriage rights, with several states voting on the issue, representing the first time that same-sex marriage rights have been won directly through the ballot in US states. These states voted to allow same-sex marriage:

MAINE		YES 54%, no 46%		estimated yes (70% in)
MARYLAND	YES 52%, no 48%		estimated yes (97% in)
WASHINGTON	YES 52%, no 48%		no prediction (51% in)

On the other hand, Minnesota was voting on whether to ban same-sex marriage; the race is too close to call, with "No" leading by a hair (which would allow SSM), with an estimated 81% of precincts reporting.

Here is a rundown of the results listed above:

Medical Cannabis
ALLOW	Massachusetts
BAN	Arkansas, Montana

Recreational Cannabis
ALLOW	Colorado, Washington
BAN	Oregon

Public Funds Available for Abortion
ALLOW	Florida

Same-Sex Marriage
ALLOW	Maine, Maryland, maybe Washington and Minnesota
BAN	none yet; possibly WA, MN

[Free South Califas]

75.3% of precincts partially reporting	change		result		net change
30	Tax for education, budget	49% -> 53.1%	fail->PASS?	+4.1
31	Republican budget process	41.8% -> 39.9%	fail bigger	-1.9
32	Attack on unions		47.9% -> 44.8%	fail bigger	-2.9
33	Roll back consumer protection	47.3% -> 46.6%	fail bigger	-0.7
34	Abolish death penalty		44.3% -> 46.6%	fail smaller	+2.3	
35	Legalist power grab		83.1% -> 81.6%	win smaller	-1.5
* note: most anti-slavery groups have a NO ON 35 position or lack the ovaries to take a position :/
* sigh @ Californian electorate again. I’m holding out hope for when we let undocumented immigrants vote.
36	Weaken ‘Three Strikes’ law	68.5% -> 68.6%	insignificant	+0.1
37	Label GMO foods where practical	43.0% -> 46.1%	fail smaller	+3.1
38	Molly Munger’s alternative(30)	25.8% -> 27.2%	fail smaller	+1.4
* Prop 38 bucks the leftward trend, but may not be significant anyway.
39	Close the out-of-state loophole	59.1% -> 59.6%	win bigger	+0.5
40	Finish redistricting plan	74.0% -> 72.2%	win smaller	-1.8

Here you can see the leftward effect of LA and SF's late counting. Almost every proposition has been pushed to the more left result (with the exception of bipartisan 35, 36; deceptive 38; bizarre 40) and 30 has been flipped to the YES column, almost certainly leading to a non-crisis in state funding for the next fiscal year. Now if only we could overturn Prop 13...

Notice the pattern of which propositions gained and lost from late returns (presumably from LA and SF areas):

by net change
30	Tax for education, budget	+4.1 (fail->pass)
37	Label GMO foods where practical	+3.1 (still failing)
34	Abolish death penalty		+2.3 (still failing, but close-ish)
39	Close out-of-state corp exempt. +0.5 (win bigger)
36	Weaken ‘Three Strikes’ law	+0.1 (still passes with flying colors)

33	Roll back consumer protection	-0.7
35	Legalist power grab		-1.5
40	Finish redistricting plan	-1.8 (Not sure what’s up with that - there is no party line)
31	Republican budget system	-1.9
32	Attack on unions		-2.9

Will be edited in with propositions from other states, too. See the California election thread for more details on CA props. Stats are from CA Secretary of State: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/ballot-measures/

[Shofercia]

Might as well merge our threads, since I've expanded the thread to talk about propositions in other states, and both threads are relatively small.

[Free South Califas]

I'm not opposed if the mods run with that, but I worry a bit that people will miss out on one or the other by assuming it's just for one (or, well, the other). Still, I won't stand in the way.

[Wiztopia]

Are people from California morons? They actually voted to increase taxes?

[Maklohi Vai]

Are people from California morons? They actually voted to increase taxes?

Tax increases are necessary occasionally for any halfway decent economy to function. And note that the taxes are for schools, not just for money.

[Shofercia]

Are people from California morons? They actually voted to increase taxes?

Hey there, moron from California reporting in. Lemme explain how this works:

Our Collegiate System works. As in it really works. I won't bother with all of the official numbers, but let me explain how increase in taxes benefits me, financially, according to a simple hypo, cause I'm too lazy to use modifiers, actual numbers, etc.

Suppose I'm a homeowner, and my house is worth $500,000 and I make $100,000 a year.

Additionally, every dollar spent on education, brings five more into the economy.

So I vote to increase taxes on myself and Californians by $1,000. The Californian Collegiate System takes my $1,000 and turns it into $5,000. (Take a look at who really created Silicon Valley and ensured that Hollywood remained profitable.)

As a result, California's GDP increases by five percent. $5,000 of $100,000 is $5,000. As a result, land values increase, and so does the price of my house; assuming that the increase is half, a reasonable assumption, the house value increases from $500,000 to $512,500.

Thus, by making the absolutely moronic decision, (yes, I'm being facetious,) of investing $1,000 of my tax money into education, I made $11,500.

Now this is just a hypo using simple numbers, the actual math's much more complex, but yeah, every time I pay taxes to UCs, Cal States and Community Colleges, guess who benefits? Me.

In addition, I'm a fan of education, so it's financially and emotionally beneficial for me. Plus my political allies support it. So technically, I'd be a moron not to vote "yes" on 30.