If Obama Wins, Wither the Republicans?

[Saruhan]

Not at all. This country was founded because of the efforts of revolutionaries who resisted taxation.

No they didn't. They resisted being taxed without having getting a say in how they were governed in return. They had no problem with taxation itself.

Nonsense, it was obviously the result of a war between Assassins and Templars

[Wamitoria]

Not at all. This country was founded because of the efforts of revolutionaries who resisted taxation.

No they didn't. They resisted being taxed without having getting a say in how they were governed in return. They had no problem with taxation itself.

They didn't want representation, either. They would have been easily out-voted in the HoC.

The motives of our founders were far too complex to capture in a single sentence.

[Nightkill the Emperor]

The motives of our founders were far too complex to capture in a single sentence.

Shit happened.

[PapaJacky]

No they didn't. They resisted being taxed without having getting a say in how they were governed in return. They had no problem with taxation itself.

They didn't want representation, either. They would have been easily out-voted in the HoC.

The motives of our founders were far too complex to capture in a single sentence.

You can make the argument they just really wanted Democracy.

You can also make the argument that they just really didn't want to be taxed without representation.

There's considerable support for the latter. The reason? The colonies had their own local governments. They were taxed before the 7 years war but after it, due to debts incurred by Britain, those taxes were raised. That, combined with British emplacement in the colonies of soldiers and the ignoring of the colonial governments or downright violating them (Massachusetts Government Act). The rest is pretty well known. In summary, the Fathers, in my eyes, seceded because of: 1. Violation of the colony's Self Government, 2. Abridging the colony's place as a legitimate "province" of the Empire, 3. Unsolicited taxation 4. The Revocation of Colonial pride. You can actually mix in propaganda in there too; Samuel Adams was better than Goebbels.

[Wamitoria]

The motives of our founders were far too complex to capture in a single sentence.

Shit happened.

Once again, Nightkill manages the impossible.

You can actually mix in propaganda in there too; Samuel Adams was better than Goebbels.

Yes he was. Is it weird that I'm proud of that?

[Caninope]

The motives of our founders were far too complex to capture in a single sentence.

Shit happened.

That's not the motives.

I would however, call that a fair assessment of the war itself.

[Nightkill the Emperor]

Shit happened.

That's not the motives.

I would however, call that a fair assessment of the war itself.

Alright then, how's this?

"Shit was thought."

[Novaya Tselinoyarsk]

That's not the motives.

I would however, call that a fair assessment of the war itself.

Alright then, how's this?

"Shit was thought."

Shit was thought, thus shit happened shortly afterwards.

[West Sylvania]

If Obama wins this election, the Republicans have an almost 100% chance of winning the presidency in the next election; such is the nature of pendulum politics.

[Wikkiwallana]

Win-win for the Democrats! Rejoice!

With the first option, the Democrats would get their asses handed to them. If the Republicans became more libertarian, they'd win. Most Americans are fiscally conservative, and socially liberal.

Got some data to back up those assertions?

[Wikkiwallana]

Standard response of the fringe: when we don't get coverage, it's a conspiracy by the media.

Think about it. Is someone like Sarah Palin really more newsworthy than Gary Johnson?

In today's world of info-tainment? She was ratings gold, therefore, she got airtime. The system sucks, but that's what happens when your news establishment has a profit motive.

[Wikkiwallana]

Of course it is. Fox is essentially a branch of the Romney campaign (well, actually, the reverse; but, you understand what I'm getting at). They gave Romney maybe one tough interview the entire primary campaign, and pretty much made a conscious effort to either not help or to hamper the other campaigns, Ron Paul included.

I think that the Ron Paul crowd merely represents a controlled opposition.

No, they represent a mixture of people fooled by his charismatic lies, deluded true believes, and college and high school kids who only care about him legalizing weed.

[Revolutopia]

With the first option, the Democrats would get their asses handed to them. If the Republicans became more libertarian, they'd win. Most Americans are fiscally conservative, and socially liberal.

Got some data to back up those assertions?

How else can you explain the Libertarian Party 's success, hell in the 2008 presidential election they received 523,713(0.40%) votes. That is around a hundred thousand more then what the Socialist Party of America won a hundred years before in 1908(they received 420,852 votes[2.8%]).

Of course in 1908 only 14,889,239 people voted, while in 2008 there was 131,393,990 people voting. So maybe the fact that they only edged Debs out by around 100,000 votes in an election where there was more then 115,000,000 more people voting is not all that impressive.

[Gauthier]

Alright then, how's this?

"Shit was thought."

Shit was thought, thus shit happened shortly afterwards.

"I think, therefore I shit."

[Tahar Joblis]

On the popular topic of secession, I'd like to state that what I said on this topic three years ago has a lot of currency. Yes, some of the comments about state governments are out of date, but a lot of the basics are the same.

Within the Old South - the former Confederacy - there's a large and substantial black population who have been, collectively, living there since the end of slavery, give or take a little migration within the US. Southern whites will be divided on the issue of secession even in the most optimistic of scenarios; southern blacks will be nearly universally and passionately opposed. If a state like Alabama or Mississippi seceded from the union, you would probably see armed conflict within the state before you saw federal troops do anything.

Secession is simply not going to happen. Maybe Texas will make serious moves towards secession, but I highly doubt anyone else will.

What can and is likely to happen is an upswing in domestic terrorism.

[Page]

I just have to say that I love reading the OP's analyses of this election which have been incredibly insightful, but sensing their political bias (which is similar to my own), I pessimistically think they are a bit too optimistic.

Also, I will make this prediction - an Obama victory, anticipated with minor changes in the Senate which neither result in a Republican majority nor a filibuster-breaking Democrat majority, also anticipated with a small net gain of Democrats in the House, will mark at least two more years of relative stagnation and obstruction.

With the Republican #1 goal of Obama not getting re-elected crushed, some will wish to choose the side of compromise. But the GOP still has far stronger party discipline than the Democratic Party, and there is a chance that the flawed doctrine of "if you lost it's because you weren't conservative enough" will be continually broadcast and encouraged by fists full of dollars.

If the hardliners lose out and the Republicans compromise, I expect nominal 2014 gains for the Democrats in the House. If they stick with their extremist doctrine, then I expect a crushing Democratic shift on level with 2006 (or what the GOP accomplished in 2010). This would mark an interesting historical occasion - 3 highly consequential midterm cycles in a row.

The real problem will be the Supreme Court, if Obama has a chance to nominate another justice. Ideally (if a liberal shift in the court is your ideal, of course), Obama would get to make one more nomination, and would get to do so towards the end of his Presidential term, where he will be seen as less divisive of a figure by conservatives, and extremism from GOP Senators will have burnt itself out.

[PapaJacky]

Got some data to back up those assertions?

How else can you explain the Libertarian Party 's success, hell in the 2008 presidential election they received 523,713(0.40%) votes. That is around a hundred thousand more then what the Socialist Party of America won a hundred years before in 1908(they received 420,852 votes[2.8%]).

Of course in 1908 only 14,889,239 people voted, while in 2008 there was 131,393,990 people voting. So maybe the fact that they only edged Debs out by around 100,000 votes in an election where there was more then 115,000,000 more people voting is not all that impressive.

Lest us forget Debs got over 900,000 votes, 6% of the total votes, at the heat of the anti-war movement.

[Coltarin]

The centrist Reps will try to distance themselves from the right wing nut house the Republican party has become. It's almost a perfect example of 'How the Mighty have Fallen'. That this is the same party that produced Eisenhower, Reagan, and even Bush Sr. It's a terrible disappointment that they've been taken over be xenophobic, elitist, sexists. Reagan is rolling in his grave.

[Wikkiwallana]

The centrist Reps will try to distance themselves from the right wing nut house the Republican party has become. It's almost a perfect example of 'How the Mighty have Fallen'. That this is the same party that produced Eisenhower, Reagan, and even Bush Sr. It's a terrible disappointment that they've been taken over be xenophobic, elitist, sexists. Reagan is rolling in his grave.

Why should he be rolling in his grave? It was he who started this shit.

[Condunum]

The centrist Reps will try to distance themselves from the right wing nut house the Republican party has become. It's almost a perfect example of 'How the Mighty have Fallen'. That this is the same party that produced Eisenhower, Reagan, and even Bush Sr. It's a terrible disappointment that they've been taken over be xenophobic, elitist, sexists. Reagan is rolling in his grave.

I wouldn't consider Regan or Bush Sr. to be good examples. They're both pretty shitty in their own rights.

[Caninope]

That's not the motives.

I would however, call that a fair assessment of the war itself.

Alright then, how's this?

"Shit was thought."

Not good either. I'm pretty sure that some of the people fighting just wanted to see the world burn, to quote the great Alfred Pennyworth.

[Caninope]

The centrist Reps will try to distance themselves from the right wing nut house the Republican party has become. It's almost a perfect example of 'How the Mighty have Fallen'. That this is the same party that produced Eisenhower, Reagan, and even Bush Sr. It's a terrible disappointment that they've been taken over be xenophobic, elitist, sexists. Reagan is rolling in his grave.

Why should he be rolling in his grave? It was he who started this shit.

While Reagan was fairly conservative, he was also much more mild and compromising than the ones we have now.

What we have now should be blamed on Dr. Newton Leroy Gingrich.

[Caninope]

The centrist Reps will try to distance themselves from the right wing nut house the Republican party has become. It's almost a perfect example of 'How the Mighty have Fallen'. That this is the same party that produced Eisenhower, Reagan, and even Bush Sr. It's a terrible disappointment that they've been taken over be xenophobic, elitist, sexists. Reagan is rolling in his grave.

I wouldn't consider Regan or Bush Sr. to be good examples. They're both pretty shitty in their own rights.

What do you have against Bush Sr.?

[New Sapienta]

This inspired me.

[Shofercia]

The motives of our founders were far too complex to capture in a single sentence.

Shit happened.

Sorry Wami, I like ya, but Nightkill got ya there

You can actually mix in propaganda in there too; Samuel Adams was better than Goebbels.

Yes he was. Is it weird that I'm proud of that?

Not at all. Propaganda is a tool, it depends on what you use it for. Think of it as a chainsaw. If you use it to massacre kids - very bad. If you use it to create art - meh. If you use it to help people, by building houses - that's great! There's nothing wrong with using propaganda, unless you're using it for an evil cause. And that's the difference between Adams and Goebbels; Adams used it to build houses, Goebbels - to massacre kids. So start building