If Obama Wins, Wither the Republicans?

[Farnhamia]

A bit off to predict them withering, when they are all but guaranteed the House.

My prediction, if they lose the Presidency, they will refuse to pass a budget and this discussion will become moot because the federal govnerment has withered away.

Not ideal, but there are lesser degrees of society I can live with.

Sure, shutting down the Federal government is going to play really well with the voters in 2014. All but guaranteed to lose the House then.

[Nationstatelandsville]

<grabs metal ruler, dons habit, whacks knuckles all the way around>

Stop it! Stop it! Stop it!!!

<tosses aside habit>

Good. I always hated drag anyway. Now, a fine woman in a three-piece suit...

<shakes off image, focuses>

The purpose of this thread is not to debate whether Obama and his fellow Democrats are socialists, or whether Republicans are idiots. Even if exactly one of those statements is true, that's not germane to this conversation. Ixnay!

And as OP, I'm going to make an executive decision and say that, while civil violence may well be the response some conservatives choose, secession is simply not an option we should discuss here, primarily because it's not a feasible option at all.

Why is it not a feasible option? Because if you're looking at the so-called "red-blue" map of America, this is not the map that matters:

(Image)

That map (i.e., the one directly above) is an illusion, one that makes it look like every person in Arizona is a Republican and every person in Pennsylvania is a Democrat. Obviously, neither of these two things is true. This is the map that matters:

(Image)

This isn't like 1860, where Republicans and Democrats are cleanly divided along State lines. Rather, the real political maps has red and blue counties sprinkled everywhere, intermingled on a scale that has deep red townships just a few miles away from deep blue cities.

Why does that matter? Because if Republicans decide they want out of the political compact that says that the Party that wins the election gets to govern the country, there's isn't going to be some magical force that makes Republicans in Arizona willing to secede while Republicans in Pennsylvania just passively decide to live with the results. It Red America collectively reaches for its guns in an effort to avail itself of some kind of "2nd Amendment remedy", it will do so everywhere; Republicans in so-called "Blue" States will be just as eager to escape "tyranny" - via force - as their "Red State" cousins.

IOW, it won't be a civil war in the sense that the American Civil War was a "civil war" - i.e., a war of secession; no, it will be a civil war in the sense that the Russian Civil War was a civil war - i.e., a town-by-town, city-by-city, grab-control-of-the-reigns-of-power-and-while-you're-at-it-burn-your-neighbor-alive-in-his bed civil war. It will be a war in which the "Reds" rise up, not to break away from the Federal government, but to take control of the Federal government, to establish a "dictatorship of the bourgeoisie" - or, in Marxist terms, to stage a genuine counterrevolution.

It'll be Rwanda on a continental scale.

---

So now, getting back to the purpose of this thread, it is possible that the Republican response to defeat will be armed revolt. I think such a thing unlikely, in no small part because I don't think enough Americans are going to be willing to murder their neighbors in their sleep on the basis of the notion that Barack Obama and the Democrats are socialists. As pissed off as Republicans are, I just can't see the majority of them going postal over being forced to buy health insurance on the private market (even if it does end up being through a State-run public exchange) just because their employers opted not to pony up; nor can I see them committing genocide because Federal income tax rates might go back to where they were in 2000 (horror of horrors that such a monstrously evil thing would be!). Most of us - including even FOX News viewers - are just not that unhinged, foreign stereotypes of gun-toting Americans notwithstanding.

Now, if the conservatives are right (which they're not) and Barack Obama is an evil Islamofascist-Eurosocialist monster, there will be plenty of chances for them to take up arms and rebel once his Dastardly Evil Plan™ begins to fall into place - and in fact, the Patriotic Defenders of Christ, Mom, Virginity, Apple Pie & All Else That Is Wholesome & Decent In the World™ will probably want to let things get bad for a just while, if only to to drive the scales from the eyes of their misguided neighbors; after all, from a purely practical standpoint, grabbing your gun and cooking off several magazines at whatever's handy right now is probably... er, politically premature. All successful revolutions require a certain measure of realized grievance to motivate the masses into armed insurrection anyway, and we ain't there yet.

So for now, the question then becomes: What do Republicans do in the meantime, while Barack Obama and the Evil Democrats are still not yet obvious Agents of the Antichrist™?

We don't live in a brutal country - we live in one of the most prosperous, content, and dare I say, undivided nations in the world. Despite what the campaigns say and what some of us are sucked into believing for a few months, we'll never turn on each other.

Desperation and brutality breed desperate brutality. Neither of those elements exist in the United States, not when compared to other nations where violence is very real. We've reached the point as a nation that we're happier to bitch than revolt, to put aside our dire sense of "the other guys are EVIL!" (which is total shit and we all know it to some degree) when it comes to friends and family.

No, we aren't going to kill each other because of politics, because we all know that, no matter who wins, our world will not change.

[Norstal]

So how long have the minorities in the US been of one monolithic mind unwilling to change its mind when it comes to voting?

Ever since the Europeans invaded this land.

*nods*

[Unified Republic of Carpania]

If the GOP fades, it would be partly because because they allowed America to become multicultural when Dubya was in office. Minority voters who put racial identity politics before everything else (which isn't all of them, mind you) will vote for the Democrats no matter what the Republicans do. John McCain was a case in point. McCain and Dole ran as reach-across-the-aisle moderates who few people were enthused about and they lost; Reagan won his election. HW Bush won on Reagan's coattails, but lost after breaking his promise on taxes. Pandering doesn't win elections. Standing up for what you believe does.

As for predictions to future elections, I think we're going to see third parties get more power no matter the election's outcome. And I think the Republican field for the next open election will involve Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Governor Jindal (particularly if it's in 2016), and Jeb Bush (as the establishment candidate) eyeing the top prize.

So how long have the minorities in the US been of one monolithic mind unwilling to change its mind when it comes to voting?

That's exactly what I'm saying! Liberals act like they are, and just because most agree with them doesn't mean they all do. If they agree with the Democrats on things like amnesty and affirmative action, if those things mean so much to them, if they stand with Jesse Jackson, they'll vote for the Democrats no matter how much unpopular, pandering GOP elites bend over backwards for them.

[Nationstatelandsville]

So how long have the minorities in the US been of one monolithic mind unwilling to change its mind when it comes to voting?

Ever since the Europeans invaded this land.

*nods*

"We propose House Bill #42 - You Guys Getting the Fuck Out of Here, or At Least Stop Killing Us."

"COMMUNIST!"

[Alien Space Bats]

According to the last 'large' election thread [that I saw], minorities are treated in some models as one of the most unpredictable voting groups.

Actually, it's white women. White men and minorities are generally predictable - although the exact Latino vote percentage is still settling into place.

[Nationstatelandsville]

According to the last 'large' election thread [that I saw], minorities are treated in some models as one of the most unpredictable voting groups.

Actually, it's white women. White men and minorities are generally predictable - although the exact Latino vote percentage is still settling into place.

Well, that should be obvious enough - but if we broke it down to elderly women and young women, wouldn't you say that they would still follow the demographics of their male counterparts?

[Ostroeuropa]

According to the last 'large' election thread [that I saw], minorities are treated in some models as one of the most unpredictable voting groups.

Actually, it's white women. White men and minorities are generally predictable - although the exact Latino vote percentage is still settling into place.

In the UK, a white woman is statistically more likely to vote Conservative, with minorities and working class men voting Labour.
Everyone else is unpredictable

[Samozaryadnyastan]

According to the last 'large' election thread [that I saw], minorities are treated in some models as one of the most unpredictable voting groups.

Actually, it's white women. White men and minorities are generally predictable - although the exact Latino vote percentage is still settling into place.

I don't remember the name of the thread.
But it was the one about the 'anonymous' predictor who took the various statistics and compiled data that was different to what most pundits produced and was surprisingly accurate.

He gave high weighting to minorities (I think it was specific to asians and hispanics, african-americans were given a lower weighting for being more predictable) for being relatively unpredictable.

[Farnhamia]

So how long have the minorities in the US been of one monolithic mind unwilling to change its mind when it comes to voting?

That's exactly what I'm saying! Liberals act like they are, and just because most agree with them doesn't mean they all do. If they agree with the Democrats on things like amnesty and affirmative action, if those things mean so much to them, if they stand with Jesse Jackson, they'll vote for the Democrats no matter what.

Could be that they feel that amnesty and affirmative action are good things, the former legitimizing people who have lived and worked here for years, the latter leveling the playing field.

[Neo Art]

According to the last 'large' election thread [that I saw], minorities are treated in some models as one of the most unpredictable voting groups.

Actually, it's white women. White men and minorities are generally predictable - although the exact Latino vote percentage is still settling into place.

Where are the white women at indeed, ASB.

Where are the white women at indeed.

[Unified Republic of Carpania]

Ever since the Europeans invaded this land.

*nods*

"We propose House Bill #42 - You Guys Getting the Fuck Out of Here, or At Least Stop Killing Us."

"COMMUNIST!"

Thing is, they don't all want to expel all white people from the American continent, and we'll never get the ones who want to, we'll never get the Black Panthers on our side, and we won't get La Raza no matter how much GOP elites pander to them. Acting pathetic doesn't get them rewarded.

[Ostroeuropa]

"We propose House Bill #42 - You Guys Getting the Fuck Out of Here, or At Least Stop Killing Us."

"COMMUNIST!"

Thing is, they don't all want to expel all white people from the American continent, and we'll never get the ones who want to.

Reminds me of the song
"i'm a native american nazi"

[Nationstatelandsville]

"We propose House Bill #42 - You Guys Getting the Fuck Out of Here, or At Least Stop Killing Us."

"COMMUNIST!"

Thing is, they don't all want to expel all white people from the American continent, and we'll never get the ones who want to.

That was a historical joke - obviously we as a country have reached the point where we've stopped trying to kill each other over skin color and ancestry.

Well, mostly.

[Alien Space Bats]

No, we aren't going to kill each other because of politics, because we all know that, no matter who wins, our world will not change.

If you noticed my tone, I'm leaning towards agreement.

My basic take on civil violence is that - because Obama and the Democrats aren't the evil monsters the lunatic right says they are - things will never get bad enough to motivate the majority of citizens to take up arms. This, of course, does not rule out the possibility that whack-jobs will initiate violence against - as John Stewart so beautifully puts it - "the Barack Obama only they can see", based on the what the voices in their heads insist that said Invisible Obama is getting ready to do to them "real soon now".

But at this level, we're basically talking about a fringe terrorist movement, not a genuine revolutionary force.

[Esternial]

Wow, geez. We're getting creative here.

I'm interested in seeing what happens to both the winning and losing side.

[Nightkill the Emperor]

I look forward to the GOP's demise.

Wonder what party will pop up in their place.

[Wikkiwallana]

I was listening to Rush yesterday (again, my dad picks the radio when he drives, I don't do this to myself voluntarily), and he kept expressing certainty Romney would win, and talking about how all the polls were oversampling democrats. Frankly, given that he is a primary source of info for so many people, and the message he is giving is that if Romney loses, it's because the election was stolen, I'm really worried about violence after the election, considering all the talk of "second amendment solutions" and "if ballots don't work, bullets will" in the last few years.

[Ostroeuropa]

I look forward to the GOP's demise.

Wonder what party will pop up in their place.

The Democrat party.

[North California]

I look forward to the GOP's demise.

Wonder what party will pop up in their place.

Libertarians.

[Esternial]

I look forward to the GOP's demise.

Wonder what party will pop up in their place.

Hope tea isn't involved.

[Farnhamia]

I look forward to the GOP's demise.

Wonder what party will pop up in their place.

Libertarians.

Thereby ushering in a generation of Democratic Party leadership in government. It gives one hope.

[North California]

Libertarians.

Thereby ushering in a generation of Democratic Party leadership in government. It gives one hope.

Actually, it's more like this:

Neo-conservatives loose all power, and the libertarians who have been infiltrating the GOP for the last six years take over.


or

Neo-conservatives, while holding on to their last bits of power, go even more extreme, pretty much banning libertarians like they did during the primary. We see a rise in the Libertarian Party and independent voters. GOP withers away, and Democrats win the next 5 or elections.

[Esternial]

Thereby ushering in a generation of Democratic Party leadership in government. It gives one hope.

Actually, it's more like this:

Neo-conservatives loose all power, and the libertarians who have been infiltrating the GOP for the last six years take over.


or

Neo-conservatives, while holding on to their last bits of power, go even more extreme, pretty much banning libertarians like they did during the primary. We see a rise in the Libertarian Party and independent voters. GOP withers away, and Democrats win the next 5 or elections.

Win-win for the Democrats! Rejoice!

[Nationstatelandsville]

I look forward to the GOP's demise.

Wonder what party will pop up in their place.

Libertarians.

I see something like a 50/50 split between the Libs and Dems, which leads to the Dems moving further right to accommodate their new right-wing members.

This will inevitably cause them to collapse further down the road, allowing a new party to rise up, and the remaining right-wing to filter into the Libs.