New Chinese Carrier, any thoughts?

[Great Nepal]

>America has 11 aircraft carriers
>China has 1

Nope, not too worried.

And America's are larger, more powerful, and more advanced, and the aircraft on them are as well.

As I said, this changes nothing.

You know, there is a world outside US borders... I know, its shocking.
China is showboating; they are not going to attack you.

[Vitaphone Racing]

Believe me, hull design has not changed so radically in these past few years that the Kuznetsov is obsolete.


Germany had the first true single seat fighters in 1915. Why were allied air forces superior in the 1940's?

Arguably, the German planes did individually better in the war until they started running out of new planes and skilled pilots. The Allies massively outproduced them and had a much larger pool of potential pilots to draw from, in the end.

People still debate which planes were better, and maybe the Allies did produce better planes, but it's hard to know for sure, and I wouldn't take the word of a random schmuck on the internet about it. The Germans did have a lot of flying aces and good overall kill ratios. The air war was ultimately not won by having better individual single seat fighters, but by having better radar and more planes, and possibly because the Allies rotated aces back to train new pilots; those were much more important than whatever small performance edge, if any, the Allied fighterplanes had over the German fighterplanes.

Not really the point I'm trying to make. I'm pointing out the "we were first so we're always the best at it" idea is fatally flawed and has no logical base.

[Enfaru]

I can see this being a large problem for Eastern Asia. China is the last nation that should have a carrier, especially a Kuznetsov-class. Especially with the Kuril Islands dispute going on right now.

...but but think of the Chocobo's! (Bonus points for the person who gets this XD)

[Cameroi]

i would have to say "meh". china, like the u.s., would be wiser to put that kind of investment into the development of outer space. possibly putting humans in mars orbit and safely returning them to earth, before america, japan, or europe does so.

[Grand Britannia]

I can see this being a large problem for Eastern Asia. China is the last nation that should have a carrier, especially a Kuznetsov-class. Especially with the Kuril Islands dispute going on right now.

...but but think of the Chocobo's! (Bonus points for the person who gets this XD)

I'll take the points.

[Purpelia]

I am too bored to read through this whole thing so I will just post. I would like to present an idea that I have come upon on a different forum with people who are a tad bit more knowledgeable about these things that we are (not NSD thou). Yes, this current ship is old (not obsolete but old) and definitively no match for a proper modern carrier. But that is not what the Chinese need right now. Their fleet is for the Chinese sea and not to cruise around the middle east. And the idea with this one is that perhaps this new carrier is not supposed to serve as a proper carrier for their fleet. Instead through refurbishing it and operating aircraft from it the Chinese are seeking to gain experience and expertise in working with carriers so that they can later build and maintain their own more powerful and effective ones that are to come down the line. It would not be the first time for the Chinese to do something like that. Just see their indigenous aircraft and tank developments.

[Yes Im Biop]

Good for them. Gonna laugh when they hit a rock and blame someone for torpedoing em.

[Khodoristan]

Not true. The Thai Navy has an aircraft carrier. What? No, seriously.

The Kuznetsov has very limited ASW capabilities. The Udav-1 anti-submarine rocket system is a dated system only meant to provide close-in ASW protection. A deep-diving torpedo or sea-skimming ASM would neutralize the Liaoning's already limited ASW complement. It cant be put into a CBG. At least not yet. The Chinese still don't understand the dynamics of a CBG and how it is to be used to effect. You can put a carrier with a bunch of ships off the coast of Country X, but if Country X has advanced anti-ship and anti-air capabilities, than that advantage of having ships and aircraft could become a serious liability real fast. As for air defense, the Chinese made significant strides in SHORAD SAM's and CIWS, but I seriously doubt if they can successfully defend against American aircraft, cruise missiles and torpedoes, which I might add, have gotten a lot better over the past few years. No matter how well you protect yourself, if you have a volley of Harpoons/Tomahawks inbound, you're gonna be hard pressed to kill 'em all. Factor in the LRASM that will enter US Navy service in 2015, and no ship on earth will be able to defend itself from a volley of LRASMs, Chinese, Americans, or otherwise.

Untrue. Current IADS capabilities of even a single heavy aircraft carrying cruiser such as the Kuznetsov can handle a massive barrage in of itself. The reason? Basically, American missiles are slow. I've done the math a while ago, and basically 1v1, a salvo of harpoons from a Ticonderoga class cruiser could be shot down by a single Kuznetsov before any even hit. Seaskimming these days simply isn't enough, and the LRASM, AFAIK, fit that same bill.

I agree that the Ruskies and Chicoms have better IADS then they used to, but you forget that there would be [url]dozens[/url] of torpedoes, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles being fired at the Liaoning. Russian and China do not possess the integrated air defence systems on the levels of Aegis, and when you have inexperienced crewmen fielding defending their big friggin ship against the best pilots, sailors, and submariners in the world, a few missiles are bound to hit, no mater wheat. The US Navy is really, really good at what they do: controlling the world's oceans. I'm sure the USN has contingency plans in case of a naval conflict with China, and taking out China's only carrier would be a top priority along with dealing with the DF-21.

As for LRASM, there are two variants. The A model is a heavy, subsonic, top-down missile. The B model, which was recently cancelled and then un-cancelled, is a stealthy, supersonic, sea-skimming missile. Either way, they will be the world's best ASM's when they are fielded in 2015. To be honest though, I'd be more worried about ArcLight and Prompt Global Strike. If they're fielded, than none of this will have relevance.

[The UK in Exile]

I am too bored to read through this whole thing so I will just post. I would like to present an idea that I have come upon on a different forum with people who are a tad bit more knowledgeable about these things that we are (not NSD thou). Yes, this current ship is old (not obsolete but old) and definitively no match for a proper modern carrier. But that is not what the Chinese need right now. Their fleet is for the Chinese sea and not to cruise around the middle east. And the idea with this one is that perhaps this new carrier is not supposed to serve as a proper carrier for their fleet. Instead through refurbishing it and operating aircraft from it the Chinese are seeking to gain experience and expertise in working with carriers so that they can later build and maintain their own more powerful and effective ones that are to come down the line. It would not be the first time for the Chinese to do something like that. Just see their indigenous aircraft and tank developments.

this in fact the explicit purpose of the new carrier. the chinese have outright said so.

[Takaram]

Hell, this thing is going to be something they parade out whenever the PLAN wants nice footage. China doesn't want to deal with the expense of producing and maintaining a carrier battle group, especially one centered around a Soviet-era museum piece. If China ever gets into a major shooting war with, say Japan or Taiwan, this thing will just be a major target.

[Khodoristan]

Hell, this thing is going to be something they parade out whenever the PLAN wants nice footage. China doesn't want to deal with the expense of producing and maintaining a carrier battle group, especially one centered around a Soviet-era museum piece. If China ever gets into a major shooting war with, say Japan or Taiwan, this thing will just be a major target.

Basically this.

[Badezz Republic]

Uh.. so? It's just a boat that carries people and aircrafts around.

[Forsher]

Uh.. so? It's just a boat that carries people and aircrafts around.

Yeah, but Chinese boats are meant to be junk!

Really it's because everyone want China to be the next bad guy so very much.

[Badezz Republic]

Uh.. so? It's just a boat that carries people and aircrafts around.

Yeah, but Chinese boats are meant to be junk!

Really it's because everyone want China to be the next bad guy so very much.

Of course Chinese boats are junk, and most of their military is junk. They only have a some-what powerful military because of their huge population. I'm sure us Americans have nothing to worry about if China has an aircraft carrier.

[New Chalcedon]

I can see this being a large problem for Eastern Asia. China is the last nation that should have a carrier, especially a Kuznetsov-class. Especially with the Kuril Islands dispute going on right now.

Whyever do you think that? Examine, if you will, the situation from China's perspective.

Economically, they are the undisputed #2 nation of the world, and soon enough will become (as they have historically been) #1. Therefore, if 9 other nations (including such small ones as Thailand) can afford carriers, it stands to reason that China can too.

Strategically, China is surrounded on several sides by nations with a history of hostility, or at least rivalry:
- North, there is Russia. The Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War never quite became open warfare, but it came damned close.
- Southwest, India is a rapidly-growing nation with a carrier in its navy (plus two more under construction), the stated desire to exercise hegemonic influence over the Indian Ocean (through which roughly one-third of Chinese energy imports flows) and a post-WWII history of conflict with China.
- Southwards, Vietnam has been at war with China as recently as 1979, with border clashes continuing through to 1990. Also, the VPN and PLAN have repeatedly exchanged fire over the disputed Spratly/Paracel islands.
- East is the Pacific Ocean, and Japan and the US. One nation with a history of hostility against China, and the other with a current and future rivalry - and the mightiest navy in the history of the world. Further, well over 3/4 of Chinese external trade goes by sea, which means it can be cut off at the drop of a hat by (among others) the USN. All of this, naturally, leaves out the fact that the USAF can use Taiwan and Japan as air bases almost at will to attack targets in mainland China in the event of a conflict.

On a strategic level, China's strategic planners would be derelict in their duties if they did not seek to build as many naval advantages as they could. What's more, the ex-Kuznetsov being commissioned as a PLAN aircraft carrier is old news - the strategic consensus was that that was the purpose of the purchase since at least 2005, just as the generally-accepted consensus is that the PLAN's purchase of HMAS Melbourne for "scrapping" was in fact an attempt to better learn how carriers worked.

Frankly, the only surprise is that it took this long. Of course, my position on this is that the Royal Australian Navy needs to become a carrier operator again in response, as we were throughout the Cold War - preferably by talking to the UK about a Queen Elizabeth-class carrier or two, the US about an air wing, and building the escort and support vessels in Australia. But that's not going to happen. *grumbles about stupid Defence cuts to score political points by balancing the budget*

PS: Kuril Islands dispute? That's betwen Russia and Japan, not Russia and China. China's serious territorial disputes are in the Spratly/Paracel Islands, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and the Aksai Chin region. And even the Aksai Chin dispute has settled down.

[Soviet Russia Republic]

Yeah, but Chinese boats are meant to be junk!

Really it's because everyone want China to be the next bad guy so very much.

Of course Chinese boats are junk, and most of their military is junk. They only have a some-what powerful military because of their huge population. I'm sure us Americans have nothing to worry about if China has an aircraft carrier.

Chinese capabilities have been steadily advancing throughout the years and are likely to much further. Their military is hardly "junk". China could have ten carriers, and it wouldn't be too worrying for the US. A war between the two are extremely unlikely, especially since they are both nuclear powers. Now, as for other countries in the region, that's a different story.

[Forsher]

Yeah, but Chinese boats are meant to be junk!

Really it's because everyone want China to be the next bad guy so very much.

Of course Chinese boats are junk, and most of their military is junk. They only have a some-what powerful military because of their huge population. I'm sure us Americans have nothing to worry about if China has an aircraft carrier.

I have a feeling a joke just flew over your head, no matter it was poorly made.

Anyway, this is mostly symbolic and down the track a learning experience.

[Khodoristan]

Of course Chinese boats are junk, and most of their military is junk. They only have a some-what powerful military because of their huge population. I'm sure us Americans have nothing to worry about if China has an aircraft carrier.

Chinese capabilities have been steadily advancing throughout the years and are likely to much further. Their military is hardly "junk". China could have ten carriers, and it wouldn't be too worrying for the US. A war between the two are extremely unlikely, especially since they are both nuclear powers. Now, as for other countries in the region, that's a different story.

China's military is still being motorized. They are twenty to thirty years behind the US in doctrine and military quality.

[Soviet Russia Republic]

Chinese capabilities have been steadily advancing throughout the years and are likely to much further. Their military is hardly "junk". China could have ten carriers, and it wouldn't be too worrying for the US. A war between the two are extremely unlikely, especially since they are both nuclear powers. Now, as for other countries in the region, that's a different story.

China's military is still being motorized. They are twenty to thirty years behind the US in doctrine and military quality.

I didn't say its quality is the same or near the US, just disputing calling their military as "junk". Though, they do possess a number of weapon systems that can threaten the US in some ways, besides WMDS.

[New Chalcedon]

Yeah, but Chinese boats are meant to be junk!

Really it's because everyone want China to be the next bad guy so very much.

Of course Chinese boats are junk, and most of their military is junk. They only have a some-what powerful military because of their huge population. I'm sure us Americans have nothing to worry about if China has an aircraft carrier.

*coughs*

Are you serious? It appears you are serious. So I will educate you.

First, the PLAAF is in the final stages of testing their 4th generation carrier-launched fighter, the Shenyang J-15. Most analysts to date hold the opinion it will be only marginally inferior (if at all) to the F/A18-E Super Hornet, the best US carrier-based fighter out there.
Second, the PLAAF has in commission the Chengdu J10, another 4th-generation (non-carrier) fighter which is generally also held to be competitive (if slightly inferior) to the F15 or F/A18. Is it a match for the F22? No. But the F22 is a 5th-generation fighter.
Speaking of 5th-generation fighters, the PLAAF also has those, at least in late-stage development: the J-20, which has made its test flights and is expected to be in service about 5 years from now.

Now, to the PLA. Besides conducting research into laser weaponry (thus far with no confirmed success, thankfully), the PLA also has developed their latest main battle tank (the Type 99) after watching how the Gulf War turned out. And if you think they weren't taking notes as to how all those T-72s got themselves chewed up (the US equivalent is the M1A1, which was what chewed up all those T72s in the first place), then I have a bridge to sell you.
Then, of course, there are the latest-generation anti-tank rocket launchers with which to equip their hundreds of thousands of troops.

Regarding the PLAN, it was a joke, all right - up to about 2005, when they started putting big bucks into developing blue-water capability. Post-Cold War SSBNs, 7,000 tonne destroyers (which makes them de facto pocket cruisers, albeit still much smaller than the enormous Zumwalt-class "destroyers" which the USN is developing - seriously, why not dispense with the fiction and call a 14,000 tonne "destroyer" the cruiser it is? There were smaller battleships in WWII), and now a 67,000 tonne carrier. And I'd be very surprised if they weren't building (at least) a second, and possibly a third and fourth, carrier, having purchased four sets of carrier landing gear from Russia in 2007.

Will they win a hypothetical war? Uncertain - their tech is still at least marginally behind the latest US military technology, and is likely to remain that way. But they have numbers on their side, and the tech disparity isn't nearly as large as you assume. This isn't a "be afraid- be very afraid" notice - it's a "tomorrow isn't yesterday" notice. 10 years ago, you'd have largely been right. Now, you're not.

[Forsher]

Of course Chinese boats are junk, and most of their military is junk. They only have a some-what powerful military because of their huge population. I'm sure us Americans have nothing to worry about if China has an aircraft carrier.

*coughs*

Are you serious? It appears you are serious. So I will educate you.

First, the PLAAF is in the final stages of testing their 4th generation carrier-launched fighter, the Shenyang J-15.
Second, the PLAAF has in commission the Chengdu J10, another 4th-generation (non-carrier) fighter which is generally held to be competitive to the F15 or F/A18. Is it a match for the F22? No. But the F22 is a 5th-generation fighter.
Speaking of 5th-generation fighters, the PLAAF also has those, at least in late-stage development: the J-20, which is expected to be in service about 5 years from now.

Now, to the PLA. Besides conducting research into laser weaponry (thus far with no confirmed success), the PLA also has developed their latest main battle tank (the Type 99) after watching how the Gulf War turned out. And if you think they weren't taking notes as to how all those T-72s got themselves chewed up (the US equivalent is the M1A1, which was what chewed up all those T72s in the first place), then I have a bridge to sell you.
Then, of course, there are the latest-generation anti-tank rocket launchers with which to equip their hundreds of thousands of troops.

Regarding the PLAN, it was a joke, all right - up to about 2005, when they started putting big bucks into developing blue-water capability. Post-Cold War SSBNs, 7,000 tonne destroyers (which makes them de facto pocket cruisers, albeit still much smaller than the enormous Zumwalt-class "destroyers" which the USN is developing - seriously, why not dispense with the fiction and call a 14,000 tonne "destroyer" the cruiser it is? There were smaller battleships in WWII), and now a 67,000 tonne carrier. And I'd be very surprised if they weren't building (at least) a second, and possibly a third and fourth, carrier, having purchased four sets of carrier landing gear from Russia in 2007.

Will they win a hypothetical war? Uncertain - their tech is still at least marginally behind the latest US military technology. But they have numbers on their side, and the tech disparity isn't nearly as large as you assume. This isn't a "be afraid- be very afraid" notice - it's a "tomorrow isn't yesterday" notice. 10 years ago, you'd have largely been right. Now, you're not.

Tomorrow, when the war began.

The assumption is the US is still perfectly capable of keeping China in China but that's the limit of their might.

Now, China's surrounded by large powerful nations who aren't on the best of terms with them. The situation is far too similar to pre-WWI Europe for my liking.

[New Chalcedon]

*snips*

Tomorrow, when the war began.

The assumption is the US is still perfectly capable of keeping China in China but that's the limit of their might.

Now, China's surrounded by large powerful nations who aren't on the best of terms with them. The situation is far too similar to pre-WWI Europe for my liking.

And Beijing's not stupid, either. They are aware that - under the present circumstances - too many people are asking too many questions about their military, too many eyes are on them. They're not stupid enough to start a war with this many people already feeling nervous.

So what do they do? Try to get them un-nervous. Sign border agreements with Russia. Come to an understanding with India. Develop influence and gain power throughout South-East Asia. And so on, and so forth.

If there's a war, and if China starts it, it won't be for at least another decade. Time to build up the numbers of their more modern equipment, and un-ruffle key feathers.

[Forsher]

*snips*

Tomorrow, when the war began.

The assumption is the US is still perfectly capable of keeping China in China but that's the limit of their might.

Now, China's surrounded by large powerful nations who aren't on the best of terms with them. The situation is far too similar to pre-WWI Europe for my liking.

And Beijing's not stupid, either. They are aware that - under the present circumstances - too many people are asking too many questions about their military, too many eyes are on them. They're not stupid enough to start a war with this many people already feeling nervous.

So what do they do? Try to get them un-nervous. Sign border agreements with Russia. Come to an understanding with India. Develop influence and gain power throughout South-East Asia. And so on, and so forth.

If there's a war, and if China starts it, it won't be for at least another decade. Time to build up the numbers of their more modern equipment, and un-ruffle key feathers.

I don't think China would start a war. The concern is always the ally... while your eyes are on one chap you can't see the other.... Luckily, China really has no-one they'd care this much for at the moment in my view.

[The UK in Exile]

Chinese capabilities have been steadily advancing throughout the years and are likely to much further. Their military is hardly "junk". China could have ten carriers, and it wouldn't be too worrying for the US. A war between the two are extremely unlikely, especially since they are both nuclear powers. Now, as for other countries in the region, that's a different story.

China's military is still being motorized. They are twenty to thirty years behind the US in doctrine and military quality.

not so, they have the doctrine, were they lag is technical capacity. this aircraft carrier is part of deliberate plan to close the technology gap, only then, when they have technological parity will they fully convert to a 100% digital age army.

all this ignores the point that chinese defense capabilities aren't aimed at totally at washington, they have far more immediate local concerns. it also ignores that chinese military capacity doesn't have to be capable of defeating the entire american navy. it can simply make the conflict very, VERY expensive.

[Ifreann]

Obviously this spells doom for the West. We should surrender now, and hope that our Oriental Overlords will have mercy.

On the bright side, your food will get better.

Yes indeed. Especially the Chinese restaurants.