The 2012 Three Ring Circus AKA The US Presidential Election

[Revolutopia]

538 keeps faking me out (I'm putting this here instead of the horse race thread because any horse race observations are not mine really, but Silver's...).

It was at 78.4% chance of Obama winning @7pm PDT and now it's at 79%. Still a ways away from the pre-first debate debacle high, but...

Nate (I can call him Nate, we're close like that) hasn't said anything about it yet, but I'm guessing it has a little to do with Florida turning a little pink.

I am guessing some of it has to do with how Romney is just running out of time to drastically change the election.

[Cannot think of a name]

538 keeps faking me out (I'm putting this here instead of the horse race thread because any horse race observations are not mine really, but Silver's...).

It was at 78.4% chance of Obama winning @7pm PDT and now it's at 79%. Still a ways away from the pre-first debate debacle high, but...

Nate (I can call him Nate, we're close like that) hasn't said anything about it yet, but I'm guessing it has a little to do with Florida turning a little pink.

I am guessing some of it has to do with how Romney is just running out of time to drastically change the election.

You can see that chiefly in the 'now-cast' and 'forecast' coming together. I kind of wish the senate numbers would go up as well, but I can't have everything. I can never find numbers on the house, though I wonder what a 52-54% Obama win would do for those toss ups.

[Revolutopia]

I am guessing some of it has to do with how Romney is just running out of time to drastically change the election.

You can see that chiefly in the 'now-cast' and 'forecast' coming together. I kind of wish the senate numbers would go up as well, but I can't have everything. I can never find numbers on the house, though I wonder what a 52-54% Obama win would do for those toss ups.

Well, I think it is a 100% guarantee that the Republicans will keep the house.

[Farnhamia]

You can see that chiefly in the 'now-cast' and 'forecast' coming together. I kind of wish the senate numbers would go up as well, but I can't have everything. I can never find numbers on the house, though I wonder what a 52-54% Obama win would do for those toss ups.

Well, I think it is a 100% guarantee that the Republicans will keep the house.

Which is a pity, but one hopes that the President can use the inevitable Republican obstructionism in the next Congress to hammer them in 2014.

[Revolutopia]

Well, I think it is a 100% guarantee that the Republicans will keep the house.

Which is a pity, but one hopes that the President can use the inevitable Republican obstructionism in the next Congress to hammer them in 2014.

Hopefully, a lot of the Tea Party members will fall and this will act as warning to Boehner, Cantor, and McDonnell to stop this boneheaded obstruction and to start working together with the Dems to fix the country.

[The Black Forrest]

Well, I think it is a 100% guarantee that the Republicans will keep the house.

Which is a pity, but one hopes that the President can use the inevitable Republican obstructionism in the next Congress to hammer them in 2014.

Yes and no.

I don't particularly like any party owning it all. When it's split there is some over sight when it comes to things. Nothing worst then a group that will rubber stamp stuff through.

It does need to be cleaned of the obstructionists and to some degree the "tea party"

They won't be to obstructionist as they will want a shot at 2016 let alone 2014.

[New England and The Maritimes]

You can see that chiefly in the 'now-cast' and 'forecast' coming together. I kind of wish the senate numbers would go up as well, but I can't have everything. I can never find numbers on the house, though I wonder what a 52-54% Obama win would do for those toss ups.

Well, I think it is a 100% guarantee that the Republicans will keep the house.

Last I checked, a full Democratic sweep of the President, Senate, and House was the most likely possibility at around 42% as compared to a D-R-R or a D-D-R or an R-D-D or an R-R-R setup.

[Revolutopia]

Well, I think it is a 100% guarantee that the Republicans will keep the house.

Last I checked, a full Democratic sweep of the President, Senate, and House was the most likely possibility at around 42% as compared to a D-R-R or a D-D-R or an R-D-D or an R-R-R setup.

Where did you get that info?

[New England and The Maritimes]

Last I checked, a full Democratic sweep of the President, Senate, and House was the most likely possibility at around 42% as compared to a D-R-R or a D-D-R or an R-D-D or an R-R-R setup.

Where did you get that info?

It was on one of the websites people kept linking to about election predictions. 538 or something like that. I can't remember. Not putting it out as some solid number, but it seems to coincide with the news coverage I've seen and the way most of the senate and house races I look at are turning out.

[Revolutopia]

Where did you get that info?

It was on one of the websites people kept linking to about election predictions. 538 or something like that. I can't remember. Not putting it out as some solid number, but it seems to coincide with the news coverage I've seen and the way most of the senate and house races I look at are turning out.

Lets hope you are correct and that happens, but I doubt the Republicans are going to lose the house.

[New England and The Maritimes]

It was on one of the websites people kept linking to about election predictions. 538 or something like that. I can't remember. Not putting it out as some solid number, but it seems to coincide with the news coverage I've seen and the way most of the senate and house races I look at are turning out.

Lets hope you are correct and that happens, but I doubt the Republicans are going to lose the house.

It was taken at around the time of the convention, though, so I think it's probably a bit inflated. Still, Democrats seem set to actually gain seats in the senate and challenge the absolute majority of the house.

[Revolutopia]

Lets hope you are correct and that happens, but I doubt the Republicans are going to lose the house.

It was taken at around the time of the convention, though, so I think it's probably a bit inflated. Still, Democrats seem set to actually gain seats in the senate and challenge the absolute majority of the house.

I do know that some Tea Party favorites are struggling, as how supposedly both Michele Bachmann and Allen West are fighting for their lives and Joe Walsh is on his way out.

[New England and The Maritimes]

It was taken at around the time of the convention, though, so I think it's probably a bit inflated. Still, Democrats seem set to actually gain seats in the senate and challenge the absolute majority of the house.

I do know that some Tea Party favorites are struggling, as how supposedly both Michele Bachmann and Allen West are fighting for their lives and Joe Walsh is on his way out.

Joe Walsh is getting his ass handed to him by Duckworth both on the polls and every time he tries to make a comment about her, which is just amazing to me. Scott Brown seems to be having a hell of a time, and then both Mourdock and Akin are in extremely tight races.

[Revolutopia]

I do know that some Tea Party favorites are struggling, as how supposedly both Michele Bachmann and Allen West are fighting for their lives and Joe Walsh is on his way out.

Joe Walsh is getting his ass handed to him by Duckworth both on the polls and every time he tries to make a comment about her, which is just amazing to me. Scott Brown seems to be having a hell of a time, and then both Mourdock and Akin are in extremely tight races.

Kind makes me wish I re-registered up here in Massachusetts so I could help vote him out, but I figured my vote back home was more important as it could help keep a seat Democratic and has a slim chance of swinging an electoral vote towards Obama.

[Laerod]

Which is a pity, but one hopes that the President can use the inevitable Republican obstructionism in the next Congress to hammer them in 2014.

Yes and no.

I don't particularly like any party owning it all. When it's split there is some over sight when it comes to things. Nothing worst then a group that will rubber stamp stuff through.

It does need to be cleaned of the obstructionists and to some degree the "tea party"

They won't be to obstructionist as they will want a shot at 2016 let alone 2014.

Democrats only really rubber stamp for Republican administrations nowadays, though.

[Farnhamia]

Which is a pity, but one hopes that the President can use the inevitable Republican obstructionism in the next Congress to hammer them in 2014.

Yes and no.

I don't particularly like any party owning it all. When it's split there is some over sight when it comes to things. Nothing worst then a group that will rubber stamp stuff through.

It does need to be cleaned of the obstructionists and to some degree the "tea party"

They won't be to obstructionist as they will want a shot at 2016 let alone 2014.

Yeah, well, maybe but I don't think the modern Republicans can be trusted to provide "oversight." Just as their definition of "bipartisanship" is "do what we want," their definition of "oversight" is "You lie!"

[Northern Dominus]

Which is a pity, but one hopes that the President can use the inevitable Republican obstructionism in the next Congress to hammer them in 2014.

Yes and no.

I don't particularly like any party owning it all. When it's split there is some over sight when it comes to things. Nothing worst then a group that will rubber stamp stuff through.

It does need to be cleaned of the obstructionists and to some degree the "tea party"

They won't be to obstructionist as they will want a shot at 2016 let alone 2014.

Again, everybody gives too much credit to the voting public not having a sizeable chunk of gullible racist assholes mixed in there somewhere. That's how we got in this mess in the first place circa 2010 in the first place and given how the presidential campaign is going, that sort of tactic still works.

[Neo Art]

538 keeps faking me out (I'm putting this here instead of the horse race thread because any horse race observations are not mine really, but Silver's...).

It was at 78.4% chance of Obama winning @7pm PDT and now it's at 79%. Still a ways away from the pre-first debate debacle high, but...

Nate (I can call him Nate, we're close like that) hasn't said anything about it yet, but I'm guessing it has a little to do with Florida turning a little pink.

I am guessing some of it has to do with how Romney is just running out of time to drastically change the election.

It's both really. The fact is, assuming "McCain + NC and IA" and the 9 states of FL, OH, MI, VA, CO, NV, IA and NH in play, there is basically no map what so ever that shows Romney winning without either Florida or Ohio (well, full disclosure, there is ONE. A complete sweep of every other swing state, MI, VA, WI, CO, IA, NV, and NH will put him at exactly 270)

In Ohio, Obama continues to post a 2-5 point lead, and has done so consistantly. The window is closig on Romney pulling out a win in Ohio.

Likewise the inverse is true in Florida. What was Romney's state to lose is starting to tighten considerably.

Romney needs to win one or the other. Ohio is falling out of reach, and Florida is looking less and less secure by the day (though Florida is still trending red)

[Objectiveland]

Yes and no.

I don't particularly like any party owning it all. When it's split there is some over sight when it comes to things. Nothing worst then a group that will rubber stamp stuff through.

It does need to be cleaned of the obstructionists and to some degree the "tea party"

They won't be to obstructionist as they will want a shot at 2016 let alone 2014.

Again, everybody gives too much credit to the voting public not having a sizeable chunk of gullible racist assholes mixed in there somewhere. That's how we got in this mess in the first place circa 2010 in the first place and given how the presidential campaign is going, that sort of tactic still works.

"In any compromise between food and poison, it is only death that can win. In any compromise between good and evil, it is only evil that can profit. In that transfusion of blood which drains the good to feed the evil, the compromiser is the transmitting rubber tube."
Ayn Rand

[Miss Defied]

Again, everybody gives too much credit to the voting public not having a sizeable chunk of gullible racist assholes mixed in there somewhere. That's how we got in this mess in the first place circa 2010 in the first place and given how the presidential campaign is going, that sort of tactic still works.

"In any compromise between food and poison, it is only death that can win. In any compromise between good and evil, it is only evil that can profit. In that transfusion of blood which drains the good to feed the evil, the compromiser is the transmitting rubber tube."
Ayn Rand

Ugh. That's some rancid spam you're serving up there.

Edit: fixed my derp

[Divair]

Ugh. That's some rancid spam you're serving up there.

Just let it build up until the mods get sick of it.

[Northern Dominus]

Ugh. That's some rancid spam you're serving up there.

Just let it build up until the mods get sick of it.

Isn't that how cancer works, pretty much?

[Divair]

Just let it build up until the mods get sick of it.

Isn't that how cancer works, pretty much?

Doctors try to remove it early on, the mods like to give chances

[Northern Dominus]

Isn't that how cancer works, pretty much?

Doctors try to remove it early on, the mods like to give chances

Yeah but my head already hurts like a [INSERT OBVIOUS OBSCENITY HERE]

[Divair]

Doctors try to remove it early on, the mods like to give chances

Yeah but my head already hurts like a [INSERT OBVIOUS OBSCENITY HERE]

Unfortunately we don't have control over the mods.

yet