The 2012 Three Ring Circus AKA The US Presidential Election

[Quebec and Atlantic Canada]

I put NC as Democratic as it is beginning to waver in the Republican storm, and Virginia is going to be Obama as polls indicate Obama has a 12-17 point lead over Romney, but any who this is what I see in the future.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=CWx

You do know Wyoming's the most Republican state in the country, right?

[Arumdaum]

I put NC as Democratic as it is beginning to waver in the Republican storm, and Virginia is going to be Obama as polls indicate Obama has a 12-17 point lead over Romney, but any who this is what I see in the future.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=CWx

You do know Wyoming's the most Republican state in the country, right?

Isn't that Utah?

[Gauthier]

You do know Wyoming's the most Republican state in the country, right?

Isn't that Utah?

Utah doesn't have Dick Cheney. Also, Utah doesn't get shotgun pellets to the face.

[Wamitoria]

You do know Wyoming's the most Republican state in the country, right?

Isn't that Utah?

Wyoming votes red by about 2-3% more than Utah does.

[Quebec and Atlantic Canada]

You do know Wyoming's the most Republican state in the country, right?

Isn't that Utah?

Utah has the mostly-liberal Salt Lake City to inject a little sanity into their discourse. Wyoming's got nothing.

[Alien Space Bats]

Isn't that Utah?

Utah has the mostly-liberal Salt Lake City to inject a little sanity into their discourse. Wyoming's got nothing.

Utah and Wyoming both have a PVI of R+20, so they're equally Republican.

EDIT: If we calculate PVI to the next digit, Utah is slightly more Republican than Wyoming, 20.2-19.7.

[Page]

I was playing around the electoral map and conceived of this wacky scenario, but I think it actually is moderately realistic:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=CYx

[PapaJacky]

I was playing around the electoral map and conceived of this wacky scenario, but I think it actually is moderately realistic:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=CYx

Someone talked about that before, lol. Basically even if Romney wins a bunch of the swing states, which doesn't seem remotely likely now, he'd still lose to Obama by 2.

[Quebec and Atlantic Canada]

I was playing around the electoral map and conceived of this wacky scenario, but I think it actually is moderately realistic:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=CYx

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=CYD

Without Ohio, Virginia, OR Florida.


Beat that, Romneyailures.

[Page]

My map has Ohio for Obama.

Here is the basic rule we can all agree upon: If Obama takes Ohio OR Florida, the election is his. If Romney takes BOTH, he will win.

[Alien Space Bats]

My map has Ohio for Obama.

Here is the basic rule we can all agree upon: If Obama takes Ohio OR Florida, the election is his. If Romney takes BOTH, he will win.

Nope.

Here's an extremely likely scenario: Obama takes the 18 States Kerry and Gore took in 2004 and 2000 (respectively) along with DC, totaling 242 EV's. None of these States has voted Republican since 1988.

To that, he adds New Mexico (5 EV's) and Nevada (6 EV's), both on the strength of the Latino vote, bringing him to 253 EV's.

Next, he takes New Hampshire (4 EV's), which hasn't voted Republican since 2000, for a total of 257 EV's.

Finally, he takes Virginia (13 EV's), where the Democrat-heavy southern DC suburbs overwhelm the rest of the State. He has some help here from Virgil Goode, who's on the ticket representing the Constitution Party. Goode is from southern central Virginia; he was once Congressman from the 5th District. If he gets 3-4% from his old district, he could hit 1% Statewide, securing the State for Obama.

Virginia's 13 EV's take Obama to 270 EV's.

So no, Ohio and Florida aren't enough for Romney.

[Nightkill the Emperor]

So, would you say this analysis has merit?

[PapaJacky]

So, would you say this analysis has merit?

Someone posted that somewhere already...I say 70% yes.

[Myrensis]

Typical stereotypes lol.

I'm sure the Republicans know that their ship will sink and the majority of their supporters won't go with it.

Why are they on that ship in the first place then? If the GOP is going to survive as anything other than the permanent opposition party, they're going to have to buck the Tea Party, but for the moment they seem absolutely terrified of that idea.

[PapaJacky]

Typical stereotypes lol.

I'm sure the Republicans know that their ship will sink and the majority of their supporters won't go with it.

Why are they on that ship in the first place then? If the GOP is going to survive as anything other than the permanent opposition party, they're going to have to buck the Tea Party, but for the moment they seem absolutely terrified of that idea.

Bloc voting, anti-liberalism, racism, etc, there's a multitude of reasons to not vote for Obama and anyone with a sound brain will know that throwing your vote to a 3rd party just cockblocks who's challenging him.

[Maurepas]

Typical stereotypes lol.

I'm sure the Republicans know that their ship will sink and the majority of their supporters won't go with it.

Why are they on that ship in the first place then? If the GOP is going to survive as anything other than the permanent opposition party, they're going to have to buck the Tea Party, but for the moment they seem absolutely terrified of that idea.

I think they will, I was reading an article in the Nation about how many of the top GOP strategists see the writing on the wall, demographics wise, and so Mitt sees himself as not wanting a Second-term, and that this is the "last hurrah" so to speak of campaigning on the idea that old and white ideals can win one an election on their own. So they're trying to get their most radical agendas down in the next four years, before they basically start moderating out of sheer desperation.

Idk if it's true or not, but it made sense to me, you can only get a majority from an inevitably dying and shrinking demographic for so long.

[Evraim]

We actually left the era of George W. Bush? I never got the memo.

Your source confounds me in all the wrong ways. Do you have anything with more substance?

source for what? the source for the rolling stone article is the rolling stone article. if you disagree with their analysis of the republican/romney agenda feel free to say why.

I meant that the Rolling Stone article really didn't present anything meaningful. All it did was rehash Democratic talking points without providing evidence or citing any particular examples of Republican legislation (and the Ryan budget really doesn't count when one considers how imprecise it is).

[Wamitoria]

source for what? the source for the rolling stone article is the rolling stone article. if you disagree with their analysis of the republican/romney agenda feel free to say why.

I meant that the Rolling Stone article really didn't present anything meaningful. All it did was rehash Democratic talking points without providing evidence or citing any particular examples of Republican legislation (and the Ryan budget really doesn't count when one considers how imprecise it is).

The Ryan budget being imprecise does not negate it's intent.

[Evraim]

I meant that the Rolling Stone article really didn't present anything meaningful. All it did was rehash Democratic talking points without providing evidence or citing any particular examples of Republican legislation (and the Ryan budget really doesn't count when one considers how imprecise it is).

The Ryan budget being imprecise does not negate it's intent.

My point is that the perception of its intent usually expressed in the media is that it is Ayn Rand and Murray Rothbard's lovechild - and this is not necessarily correct. This has especially been the case since it was re-drafted.

[Wamitoria]

The Ryan budget being imprecise does not negate it's intent.

My point is that the perception of its intent usually expressed in the media is that it is Ayn Rand and Murray Rothbard's lovechild - and this is not necessarily correct. This has especially been the case since it was re-drafted.

It was re-drafted for political expedience. The original represents the ultimate goal of the Republican Party (it did get passed by the House after all).

[Revolutopia]

The Ryan budget being imprecise does not negate it's intent.

My point is that the perception of its intent usually expressed in the media is that it is Ayn Rand and Murray Rothbard's lovechild - and this is not necessarily correct. This has especially been the case since it was re-drafted.

That is absurd......Rothbard would be disgusted by Ryan's attitude towards the military. Instead, it should be classified as Ayn Rand and Augusto Pinochet's lovechild.

But honestly, I doubt one bit that Ryan has re-drafted it all and is only saying that to deflect criticism on it, especially from his own church.

[Wamitoria]

But honestly, I doubt one bit that Ryan has re-drafted it all and is only saying that to deflect criticism on it, especially from his own church.

No, he re-drafted it after getting spit on by his own constituents. The new version is designed to deprive medicare of funding to the point where it must be cut because of it's fiscal insolvency. The old version was more direct.

[PapaJacky]

The Ryan budget isn't a serious proposal, it was just an introduction of Ryan to Americans in preparation for his now-role.

[Revolutopia]

Oh no, Obama is done for with this new winning strategy that Romney campaign has in the secret works to ensure his victory in the presidential debates. They have been planning clever zingers to throw at the president, and we all know the tremendous success that Romney has when telling jokes.

Truly, the Obama campaign won't be able to withstand this new and devastating strategy being pushed by those dastardly fiends at the Romney headquarters.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2012/09/29/mitt-romneys-secret-debate-weapon-zingers

[Rubiconic Crossings V2 rev 1f]

I swear the Romney campaign is one of the greatest comedies ever made. Truth is often more funny than something manufactured...and this is so ably demonstrated every time either Romney or his hangers on open their mouths. The icing on the cake will surely be the debates.

I propose a drinking game - a snifter for each Romney gaffe.

Actually perhaps not a good idea.

I don't want to promote binge drinking.

What are you going to do when half the Nation checks into rehab?

Sell my shares in the breweries/distilleries.