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Japanese to be Extinct in 1,000 Years

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NERVUN
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Japanese to be Extinct in 1,000 Years

Postby NERVUN » Sun May 13, 2012 5:28 pm

Kinda...

Japanese researchers have unveiled a population clock that showed the nation's people could theoretically become extinct in 1000 years because of declining birth rates.

Academics in the northern city of Sendai said that Japan's population of children aged up to 14, which now stands at 16.6 million, is shrinking at the rate of one every 100 seconds.

Their extrapolations pointed to a Japan with no children left within a millennium.

"If the rate of decline continues, we will be able to celebrate the Children's Day public holiday on May 5, 3011 as there will be one child," said Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University.

"But 100 seconds later there will be no children left," he said. "The overall trend is towards extinction, which started in 1975 when Japan's fertility rate fell below two."
Yoshida said he created the population clock to encourage "urgent" discussion of the issue.

Another study released earlier this year showed Japan's population is expected to shrink to a third of its current 127.7 million over the next century.

Government projections show the birth rate will hit just 1.35 children per woman within 50 years, well below the replacement rate.

Meanwhile, life expectancy -- already one of the highest in the world -- is expected to rise from 86.39 years in 2010 to 90.93 years in 2060 for women and from 79.64 years to 84.19 years for men.

More than 20 percent of Japan's people are aged 65 or over, one of the highest proportions of elderly in the world.

Japan has very little immigration and any suggestion of opening the borders to young workers who could help plug the population gap provokes strong reactions among the public.

The greying population is a headache for policymakers who are faced with trying to ensure an ever-dwindling pool of workers can pay for a growing number of pensioners.

But for some Japanese companies the inverting of the traditional ageing pyramid provides commercial opportunities.

Unicharm said Friday that sales of its adult diapers had "slightly surpassed" those for babies in the financial year to March, for the first time since the company moved into the seniors market.

Unicharm started selling diapers for babies in 1981 and those for adults in 1987, said spokesman Kazuya Kondo, who declined to give specific figures on the sales.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/worl ... 000-years/

Currently Japan is facing a baby and a marriage shortage, the two go rather hand in hand. With men and women waiting till much later to get married, the number of children keeps decreasing. There's two competing theories (with a subset) as to why this might be happening.

Theory A holds that the problem is economical. Japan has spent two decades 'lost' with very minimum growth. The vaunted lifetime employment system that powered the bubble economy has more or less gone. While there are still some positions like that out there, many companies have turned to hiring 'part time' (It should be noted part time is in name only. Technically I am employed 'part time' which means that my contract time, instead of ending at 5 like normal, ends at 4:55 so I can be said to be part time and therefore do not need to be enrolled in various systems) laborers who can be ditched when needed to improve profits. This uncertainty about the future by most young Japanese means that they hold off on marriage and children. Why start to build a life together when you cannot tell what will happen, if you will still have your job, make ends meet, etc.

Of course, an issue with this theory is that Japan has been through even worse economic situations with no particular impact on the marriage age or birth rate (Indeed, after WWII, Japan experienced a baby boom before getting back on its feet).


Theory B holds that it's cultural. Part of this is due to the status of women in Japan. Once married, women are expected to quit their jobs and tend to their husbands and raise children. The pressure to do so is quite strong, women complain of harassment at work (Reassignment from managerial to just an office worker, constant questions, etc.), even if its against the law, once the ring is slipped onto their fingers. While things have gotten better, a bit, it's still almost unheard of for a women to stay employed once she has given birth. Even worse, child care in Japan is seriously lacking with long waiting lists to get children into nursery schools, the operating times of which do not match working time (For example, my son's school starts at 8:45 and pick up is around 4, the times cannot be extended. When you're working from 8 to 5...). This leaves mothers with very little choice but to quit to take care of their children. Once done with that, corporate Japan does not make it easy for them to re-join the work world.

For men, there's also the issue of married life as well. While women in Japan do the bulk of the work (Seriously the latest survey showed that women, even if working, devoted 3 hours per day for housework, Japanese men average 30 minutes. Childcare is even more lopsided), Japanese men also have started viewing marriage as not being worth it. A married man is expected to turn over his paycheck and bonus to his wife and then she doles out an allowance to him for his pleasures. Long working hours being the norm in Japan, many men state that they simply have no time to date, or the energy. One survey had some 40% of young Japanese males simply not interested in dating and the opposite sex, mostly due to lack of time and energy.

The subset of this theory is the usual "The Internet is ruining everything because young men and women spend too much time glued to their smartphones and computers." This might hold some water as while interest in actual dating is down, games that simulate dating have been selling well, for men and women.


What's interesting is that this is not just a Japan only problem. Developed countries around Asia are experiencing a rapidly graying population and a shrinking young one. Even China and India, the Asian giants, are sitting on a population time bomb (Though both of them are partiality due to sex-selective abortions/China's one child policy). Pretty much Asian women are holding off of marriage as their education improves and their opportunities to find fulfillment through their jobs broadens and Asian men are finding that life is more fun without the responsibilities their culture attaches to married life.

Various Asian countries are experimenting with different ways of trying to alleviate this issue from ignoring it (China), ineffectual hand-wringing (Japan), to encouraging immigration (Singapore).

So what's NSG's take on this? While this might sound like as Asian only problem, it should be noted that Europe faces declining birthrates and the US's growth is mainly due to immigration and minority births. 3rd Generation+ Americans also are not exactly being fruitful and multiplying. Crashing populations do have some rather profound consequences including an unsupported social safety net, or, like in the above article, extinction of that nation. So noting that it's impossible for a government to legislate social change, what can be, should be, done?
Last edited by NERVUN on Sun May 13, 2012 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Yootwopia
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Postby Yootwopia » Sun May 13, 2012 5:31 pm

Maybe Japan should perhaps sort its life out and allow large-scale immigration.
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Postby NERVUN » Sun May 13, 2012 5:34 pm

Yootwopia wrote:Maybe Japan should perhaps sort its life out and allow large-scale immigration.

Personally agree, though there are issues with that as well.
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Trollgaard
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Postby Trollgaard » Sun May 13, 2012 5:35 pm

Tax breaks and stipends for having children? Give out medals to mothers and encourage procreation in all walks of life. Just a few ideas.

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Torcularis Septentrionalis
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Postby Torcularis Septentrionalis » Sun May 13, 2012 5:35 pm

There's nothing wrong with a declining birth rate. Eventually it will even itself out. To think they'd go extinct (without it being a committed effort to go extinct, like VHEMT, or severe natural disaster) is ridiculous. :P
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Frisbeeteria
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Postby Frisbeeteria » Sun May 13, 2012 5:36 pm

Perhaps the lemming-like behavior of the human race is manifesting checks and balances, starting with Oriental races. Or perhaps the island's population will shrink down to a point where it could be agriculturally self-sustaining.

Also, I seem to recall some rather significant cultural changes in the last 100-200 years. Perhaps it's a bit early to be extrapolating a full millennium ahead.

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Yootwopia
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Postby Yootwopia » Sun May 13, 2012 5:36 pm

NERVUN wrote:
Yootwopia wrote:Maybe Japan should perhaps sort its life out and allow large-scale immigration.

Personally agree, though there are issues with that as well.

Right, such as?
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Postby Jerusalem and Damascus » Sun May 13, 2012 5:36 pm

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Postby Retro Lyra » Sun May 13, 2012 5:37 pm

Seeing as hugging is considered a sexual act there, I'm not suprised. They just seem too polite for those types of interactions.

Then again, they make hentai, so my theroy's worth nothing...
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Postby Rupudska » Sun May 13, 2012 5:37 pm

Yootwopia wrote:Maybe Japan should perhaps sort its life out and allow large-scale immigration.


Good luck telling that to the public.
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Postby Dreadful Sagittarius » Sun May 13, 2012 5:38 pm

Since NERVUN mentions that Europe is facing a a declining birthrate as well, I'm going to do the patriotic thing for my nation, and in the words of Iggy Pop, 'fuck like a bandit'. 8)
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Postby Carabia » Sun May 13, 2012 5:38 pm

Qestion:If the Japanese go extinct,does Japan go to Taiwan?
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Yootwopia
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Postby Yootwopia » Sun May 13, 2012 5:38 pm

Rupudska wrote:
Yootwopia wrote:Maybe Japan should perhaps sort its life out and allow large-scale immigration.


Good luck telling that to the public.

Fuck the public, to be honest.

"Boohoo we hold idiotic, backwards beliefs about things" - time to just ignore them completely, then.
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Postby Tmutarakhan » Sun May 13, 2012 5:38 pm

The entire world needs a period of contraction. When the planet is less crowded, people will be more enthused about having children again. I particularly loved this example of the fallacy of extrapolating trends: "If the rate of decline continues, we will be able to celebrate the Children's Day public holiday on May 5, 3011 as there will be one child," said Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University. "But 100 seconds later there will be no children left."
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Postby Liriena » Sun May 13, 2012 5:39 pm

NOOOOOOOO!

I've got to save them!
I love Japanese culture too much!

We must force all Japanese youth to procreate...or give them big incentives :P
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Postby Rupudska » Sun May 13, 2012 5:40 pm

Carabia wrote:Qestion:If the Japanese go extinct,does Japan go to Taiwan?


No, then China, South Korea, and America have a nuclear war over who gets to make anime now that all the Japanese people are dead.
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Hladgos wrote:Scantly clad women, more like tanks
seem to be blowing up everyones banks
with airstrikes from girls with wings to their knees
which show a bit more than just their panties

Questers wrote:
Rupudska wrote:So do you fight with AK-47s or something even more primitive? Since I doubt any economy could reasonably sustain itself that way.
Presumably they use advanced technology like STRIKE WITCHES

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Postby Carabia » Sun May 13, 2012 5:40 pm

Question:If the Japanese go extinct,does Japan go to Taiwan?
If I suddenly appear to be making sense, you need to check into an insane asylum immediantly.
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Tarsonis Survivors wrote:Wait this thread is all IC? Wow, I've been trolled on an unprecedented level.


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Postby Jerusalem and Damascus » Sun May 13, 2012 5:40 pm

Tmutarakhan wrote:The entire world needs a period of contraction. When the planet is less crowded, people will be more enthused about having children again. I particularly loved this example of the fallacy of extrapolating trends: "If the rate of decline continues, we will be able to celebrate the Children's Day public holiday on May 5, 3011 as there will be one child," said Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University. "But 100 seconds later there will be no children left."


Will the child just...

Pop out of existance?

Or just suddenly become a man?

"Happy Children's Day, Ishiro!"

"I'm so happ--" *balls drop, beard grows on his face, voice becomes a bass*

"Aww...."
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Postby Torcularis Septentrionalis » Sun May 13, 2012 5:40 pm

Liriena wrote:NOOOOOOOO!

I've got to save them!
I love Japanese culture too much!

We must force all Japanese youth to procreate...or give them big incentives :P

Image
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Postby Auremena » Sun May 13, 2012 5:41 pm

Trollgaard wrote:Tax breaks and stipends for having children? Give out medals to mothers and encourage procreation in all walks of life. Just a few ideas.
Sounds a little like what happened in Nazi Germany.
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Postby Yootwopia » Sun May 13, 2012 5:41 pm

Carabia wrote:Question:If the Japanese go extinct,does Japan go to Taiwan?

Does it really matter?
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Postby Rupudska » Sun May 13, 2012 5:41 pm

Auremena wrote:
Trollgaard wrote:Tax breaks and stipends for having children? Give out medals to mothers and encourage procreation in all walks of life. Just a few ideas.
Sounds a little like what happened in Nazi Germany.


Godwin's law.

And hey, that was one of the few things they did that wasn't evil.
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On Karlsland Witch Doctrine:
Hladgos wrote:Scantly clad women, more like tanks
seem to be blowing up everyones banks
with airstrikes from girls with wings to their knees
which show a bit more than just their panties

Questers wrote:
Rupudska wrote:So do you fight with AK-47s or something even more primitive? Since I doubt any economy could reasonably sustain itself that way.
Presumably they use advanced technology like STRIKE WITCHES

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The Geth Empire
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Postby The Geth Empire » Sun May 13, 2012 5:41 pm

Nooooooooooooooooooo!! Not Japan! Must. Allow. Immigration.

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Postby The UK in Exile » Sun May 13, 2012 5:42 pm

they need to have more unprotected sex.

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Postby Jerusalem and Damascus » Sun May 13, 2012 5:43 pm

The Geth Empire wrote:Nooooooooooooooooooo!! Not Japan! Must. Allow. Immigration.


You are forgetting just how much Japan does not want to become a melting pot.
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