Peak oil

[Northern Delmarva]

Hrm...Frontlines any one?

Well, we are in a recession the game said would happen.

[Free Commonalities]

Producing energy from wind costs about the same as coal in some conditions. Solar is still too expensive. We could expand the hydroelectric infrastructure which is thoroughly outdated, especially small scale hydroelectric and run of the river hydroelectric. Also, wave turbines are very promising. They are running them out in New York harbor. it is like a wind turbine except underwater, much more predictable flow of energy than wind.

Wind, water, and biofuels are the energy sources that are cleaner that come closest to cost with oil. Also smaller scale nuclear like nuclear turbines. I am a huge fan of turbine technology...

I also think ethanol is a scam because it uses food crops and is not very dense. Biodiesel is the way to go, especially in the near future algae biodiesel. Biodiesel can use the existing fuel infrastructure.

[Natapoc]

I hope peak oil happens soon. We have been killing eachother for years over oil. The best thing that could happen would be to totally run out of the stuff (and coal too.)

[Mikertaz Kein]

Hrm...Frontlines any one?

Well, we are in a recession the game said would happen.

I hope we go like Fallout3. I wouldn't mind getting completely obliterated in less than 8 seconds. It would be far better than living in the hell that ensues after we run out of oil and start killing each other over even less valuable resources.

[Non Aligned States]

I hope peak oil happens soon. We have been killing eachother for years over oil. The best thing that could happen would be to totally run out of the stuff (and coal too.)

When peak oil happens, and assuming there is no viable replacement for the energy demands which is very likely, the first people to go would be the environmentalists and the conservationists. They would be easy targets to blame by the hungry masses for being part of the problem.

[The Black Forrest]

Oil doesn't worry me.

Now if you want to talk about clean water sources.......

[Virtud Tierra]

Oil doesn't worry me.

Now if you want to talk about clean water sources.......

Well you know the reason the water table is so low today is because of how much water modern agriculture uses. The mechanized green revolution that is the reason for our explosive population increase would be impractical once oil reaches a certain point. Our agriculture is extremely dependant on petrochemicals for fertilizers, pesticides and mechanized monoculture farms. Once oil hits 300$ a barrel we won't have such a strain on the water sources anymore.

Agriculture in the future will be something like the grim days of Cuba's "Special Period" where they had no access to cheap oil.

Only bad thing is, is that while we might have clean water and plenty of new farm-industry jobs, about 3 billion people will starve to death with the end of inexpensive mechanized agriculture.

[Lacadaemon]

I'd guess, if nothing comes along to replace the cheap energy from oil, then after the massive die off of a large part of the population, things will end up all late 18th century like.

Which would be okay if you live in the right part of the world and enjoy colonial willamsburg & are at least a skilled artisan.

Otherwise it could be quite shit.

[Virtud Tierra]

I'd guess, if nothing comes along to replace the cheap energy from oil, then after the massive die off of a large part of the population, things will end up all late 18th century like.

Which would be okay if you live in the right part of the world and enjoy colonial willamsburg & are at least a skilled artisan.

Otherwise it could be quite shit.

I think it might be more like something like what you see in a third world country today. Expensive, rationed electricity, agriculture that is manpower intensive, mule carts and overcrowed city buses. The suburbs in the USA will be abandoned or run-down slums. We still have solar and wind to a small extent and so there will be some industry and electricity. It will start to resemble depression-era America with certain technologies that do not rely on oil excessively.

I really think most of the jobs and industrial sectors held in this post-industrial society will be gone. Nobody is going to be working in fast food or pink-collars retail sales, ect.

[Lacadaemon]

I think it might be more like something like what you see in a third world country today. Expensive, rationed electricity, agriculture that is manpower intensive, mule carts and overcrowed city buses. The suburbs in the USA will be abandoned or run-down slums. We still have solar and wind to a small extent and so there will be some industry and electricity. It will start to resemble depression-era America with certain technologies that do not rely on oil excessively.

Nah. 'Cos it's all interdependent and unstable. It will run down for a bit as energy gets more expensive then eventually just collapse. And since we use petro-chemicals for our agricultural inputs (remember, it's not just a matter of replacing the energy gained from petro-chemicals, you actually have to produce more because it will be more energy costly to synthesize all those chemicals we take for granted) there will be widespread famine. Big cities especially that only have a matter of days worth in food will be especially vulnerable. Some places that have become completely dependent on cheap energy thru' a high degree of urbanization will take centuries to readjust, like the UK (I'd expect widespread cannibalism and such in that country).

Solar requires a big industrial base, which will be gone, so that's not an option. I'd guess wind would be possible on a small scale - as it would have been with a skilled artisan and the right amount of prohibitively expensive time and materials at the end of the C18th - but what are you going to do with it? It's not like there will be much of anything to plug in at that point, and nothing new will be manufactured on a large scale. I would suppose we could do the coal thing for a bit, but I doubt there would be enough left after the food collapse to get it running given that all the easy coal has been mostly dug up. The big fancy windmills take all sorts of stuff that you need a deep industrial base and sophisticated transport infrastructure to run so those are out too.

The best that can be hoped for in a post oil world - absent the discovery of a cheaper energy source in terms of return on energy invested - is something like George Washington's time. Probably a bit worse, given that all the easy to get at metal ores have been dug up.

I really think most of the jobs and industrial sectors held in this post-industrial society will be gone. Nobody is going to be working in fast food or pink-collars retail sales, ect.

Oh yeah. I'd expect most of the population will end up in some kind of quasi feudal/indentured bondage working in extremely labor intensive occupations, like farming.

There will of course still be merchants, and small artisan shops. I suspect there will still be a few schools, though most people won't receive any education.

Mind you, the inevitable resource wars will probably lead to some kind of nuclear confrontation before all that though, so we may very well blow ourselves up anyway. So I don't worry about it.

I think I'd like the 18th century in any case.

[Rhodmhire]

I hope peak oil happens soon. We have been killing eachother for years over oil. The best thing that could happen would be to totally run out of the stuff (and coal too.)

I have a feeling far more people would be killed after peak oil happens than were killed in all incidents associated over oil previous to peak oil combined.

I, thankfully, would not be one of them.

[Virtud Tierra]

...case.

Yeah, but it won't be like that right away. In 2100, yes, the world will look like "The Postman" with little rural 1800's communities, but remember that technology doesn't uninvent itself. Peak oil isn't the "end of oil" its the end of cheap oil. You know the military in Iraq basically pays 30$ a gallon for their fuel in Iraq. They have to ship it from the USA and the logistics are expensive.

If you could go to a gas station and get gas for $30 a gallon, some people will still beable to afford it. If we can afford a war, we can afford mass transit and overcrowed buses and a few select modern construction projects.

The economy would be nothing, and life as we know it would be changed, but oil would still be around and on the market and somebody would be rich enough to use it, likely the government and its programs.

[Lacadaemon]

Yeah, but it won't be like that right away. In 2100, yes, the world will look like "The Postman" with little rural 1800's communities, but remember that technology doesn't uninvent itself. Peak oil isn't the "end of oil" its the end of cheap oil. You know the military in Iraq basically pays 30$ a gallon for their fuel in Iraq. They have to ship it from the USA and the logistics are expensive.

If you could go to a gas station and get gas for $30 a gallon, some people will still beable to afford it. If we can afford a war, we can afford mass transit and overcrowed buses and a few select modern construction projects.

The economy would be nothing, and life as we know it would be changed, but oil would still be around and on the market and somebody would be rich enough to use it, likely the government and its programs.

Right. There will be a period of declining living standards and higher unemployment. But beyond a certain cost point the whole thing rapidly collapses. The reason why gas is very cheap (and it is) is because of the huge infrastructure and economies of scale. If gas went to $30 dollars a gallon the resulting economic collapse would destroy the infrastructure behind it and the price would rapidly spiral out of control until it became so valuable it would be worthless. In other words there just aren't enough people who could afford gas at $30 a gallon to keep the price there (most oil producers would go out of business), and it would become a viscous circle of fewer and fewer people with any money as the economy collapses and constantly rising gas prices, until there isn't any real commercial use for it.

And under that scenario, the government could maybe supply some mass transit, and a few construction projects, but what would be the point? It would be like Zimbabwe, except globally, and without any outside aid at all.

Modern society is really pretty unstable when you stop and think about it.

[Virtud Tierra]

Right. There will be a period of declining living standards and higher unemployment. But beyond a certain cost point the whole thing rapidly collapses. The reason why gas is very cheap (and it is) is because of the huge infrastructure and economies of scale. If gas went to $30 dollars a gallon the resulting economic collapse would destroy the infrastructure behind it and the price would rapidly spiral out of control until it became so valuable it would be worthless. In other words there just aren't enough people who could afford gas at $30 a gallon to keep the price there (most oil producers would go out of business), and it would become a viscous circle of fewer and fewer people with any money as the economy collapses and constantly rising gas prices, until there isn't any real commercial use for it.

And under that scenario, the government could maybe supply some mass transit, and a few construction projects, but what would be the point? It would be like Zimbabwe, except globally, and without any outside aid at all.

Modern society is really pretty unstable when you stop and think about it.

Maybe so, but there will always be a demand for oil and the supply would still keep coming. Like I said, I think it really is within the power of the government alone to control the remaining oil production and see through it use. It would be a bit like Zimbabwe, but even in Zimbabwe you have government trucks, overcrowed mass transit ferrying day laborers and farmer's trucks bring their harvest to the market.

With that in mind, I think the downfall of the superiority of Western civilization will crumble. I think the shock of high energy costs will be much more destructive here then over there.

Once the dust settles, I don't think the world will completely revert to 200 years past, technology and the knowledge of such will still prevail with or without cheap oil. The high demand for energy will bring free market solutions to meet that demand. If somebody rich can get richer still from buying expensive fuel to manufacuture and establish alternative fuels and solar/wind/ nuclear power it will happen.

I think technology itself, and current research is optimistic on the fact that cheap energy is abound, but once that cheap oil is gone, science will not dissappear, but it will still be severely hampered, but it will be progress in the right direction to exploit the new paradigm of a low-energy civilization.

[Non Aligned States]

I think technology itself, and current research is optimistic on the fact that cheap energy is abound, but once that cheap oil is gone, science will not dissappear, but it will still be severely hampered, but it will be progress in the right direction to exploit the new paradigm of a low-energy civilization.

I'm iffy about this. Certainly, oil will be around after the peak, but given the increasing cost to getting it, you might end up spending more than you get back. Eventually, you'll reach a point where there's still oil, but there's just no one around who can afford it.

Well before this point though, we're likely to see mass famines and outright civil war, along with a resource war that would make WWII look like an alleyway mugging in comparison. Knowledge might still be there, but the infrastructure to make use of it would probably be blown to hell and back, with no real way of rebuilding since there's no more cheap resources to get to. And this would only be base level practical knowledge mind you.

Engineering disciplines would probably remain, but only up to an intermediary level. All the cutting edge engineering knowledge and theoretical sciences would likely disappear since there'd be no more need, and no impetus to learning them in the face of the post oil society.

[Natapoc]

I hope peak oil happens soon. We have been killing eachother for years over oil. The best thing that could happen would be to totally run out of the stuff (and coal too.)

When peak oil happens, and assuming there is no viable replacement for the energy demands which is very likely, the first people to go would be the environmentalists and the conservationists. They would be easy targets to blame by the hungry masses for being part of the problem.

You are going to blame the environmentalists and conservationists for warning you about the problems 40 years before they happened? How exactly will you blame the environmentalists? All the environmentalists are doing is making it last a little longer anyway.

[Non Aligned States]

You are going to blame the environmentalists and conservationists for warning you about the problems 40 years before they happened? How exactly will you blame the environmentalists? All the environmentalists are doing is making it last a little longer anyway.

Me? I wouldn't bother laying blame. Can't say the same for others though. A peak oil crash will generate a lot of anger. And you can bet your last dime that anger will be directed against targets of convenience. Environmentalists and conservationists would get blamed for obstructing ANWR drilling, never mind the reality that it really wouldn't change anything. Mind you, they wouldn't be the only scapegoats, but they'd be among the first.

You want to look forward to a post peak oil society? Good on you. I can only imagine that you like the famines, disease and civil wars that would follow the collapse of the energy infrastructure.

Incidentally, you can also count on mass destruction of wildlife and forests in northern climes as people substitute gas for heating with wood and eat what animals they can find. And you look forward to it, which is very strange for a supposed environmentalist.

[Lacadaemon]

You are going to blame the environmentalists and conservationists for warning you about the problems 40 years before they happened? How exactly will you blame the environmentalists? All the environmentalists are doing is making it last a little longer anyway.

Well, it wouldn't be unfair to say that a portion of the environmental movement has obstructed the development of potential replacements like nuclear, while pushing an unrealistic agenda of silly things like windmills and solar.

Though things will be pretty chaotic post peak oil, so I'm sure all sorts of groups will be turned on.

[Natapoc]

You are going to blame the environmentalists and conservationists for warning you about the problems 40 years before they happened? How exactly will you blame the environmentalists? All the environmentalists are doing is making it last a little longer anyway.

Me? I wouldn't bother laying blame. Can't say the same for others though. A peak oil crash will generate a lot of anger. And you can bet your last dime that anger will be directed against targets of convenience. Environmentalists and conservationists would get blamed for obstructing ANWR drilling, never mind the reality that it really wouldn't change anything. Mind you, they wouldn't be the only scapegoats, but they'd be among the first.

You want to look forward to a post peak oil society? Good on you. I can only imagine that you like the famines, disease and civil wars that would follow the collapse of the energy infrastructure.

Incidentally, you can also count on mass destruction of wildlife and forests in northern climes as people substitute gas for heating with wood and eat what animals they can find. And you look forward to it, which is very strange for a supposed environmentalist.

Whatever. I'm not responsible for whatever crimes are committed by sick, biosphere destroying, people. Your message is typical of what is wrong with most peoples reasoning and if you can't change this style of reasoning then humanity is doomed anyway. And deserves it.

Here you go deflecting the consequences of your actions on other people. You are responsible only for what you yourself do. Your mommy can't take care of your environment for you and neither can your government.

You can try to blame others all you like but it will do nothing to stop the fact that this is a grave you dug with your own hands.

You seem to have a very clear almost prophetic view of the future as if you think you know exactly how people will react. How amazing it must be to see into the future like that. Do you time travel often? Or is it visions from God?

Trying to claim that I somehow like famine, disease , and civil war is defamatory speech. Please try to not deflect your own emotions onto me.

[Natapoc]

You are going to blame the environmentalists and conservationists for warning you about the problems 40 years before they happened? How exactly will you blame the environmentalists? All the environmentalists are doing is making it last a little longer anyway.

Well, it wouldn't be unfair to say that a portion of the environmental movement has obstructed the development of potential replacements like nuclear, while pushing an unrealistic agenda of silly things like windmills and solar.

Though things will be pretty chaotic post peak oil, so I'm sure all sorts of groups will be turned on.

Why do you all have some doomsday view of this? If you really think it will be this bad then go out and help develop a good alternative. Solar and wind by the way are fine if you don't use energy intense appliances. The problem is people are trying to use energy like it is free. Solar and wind are not quite to that point yet.

[Kashindahar]

You are going to blame the environmentalists and conservationists for warning you about the problems 40 years before they happened? How exactly will you blame the environmentalists? All the environmentalists are doing is making it last a little longer anyway.

Me? I wouldn't bother laying blame. Can't say the same for others though. A peak oil crash will generate a lot of anger. And you can bet your last dime that anger will be directed against targets of convenience. Environmentalists and conservationists would get blamed for obstructing ANWR drilling, never mind the reality that it really wouldn't change anything. Mind you, they wouldn't be the only scapegoats, but they'd be among the first.

You want to look forward to a post peak oil society? Good on you. I can only imagine that you like the famines, disease and civil wars that would follow the collapse of the energy infrastructure.

Incidentally, you can also count on mass destruction of wildlife and forests in northern climes as people substitute gas for heating with wood and eat what animals they can find. And you look forward to it, which is very strange for a supposed environmentalist.

Whatever. I'm not responsible for whatever crimes are committed by sick, biosphere destroying, people. Your message is typical of what is wrong with most peoples reasoning and if you can't change this style of reasoning then humanity is doomed anyway. And deserves it.

Here you go deflecting the consequences of your actions on other people. You are responsible only for what you yourself do. Your mommy can't take care of your environment for you and neither can your government.

You can try to blame others all you like but it will do nothing to stop the fact that this is a grave you dug with your own hands.

You seem to have a very clear almost prophetic view of the future as if you think you know exactly how people will react. How amazing it must be to see into the future like that. Do you time travel often? Or is it visions from God?

Trying to claim that I somehow like famine, disease , and civil war is defamatory speech. Please try to not deflect your own emotions onto me.

It looks like you forgot the post which claimed that you wanted peak oil to happen sooner rather than later. Here you go:

I hope peak oil happens soon. We have been killing eachother for years over oil. The best thing that could happen would be to totally run out of the stuff (and coal too.)

[Natapoc]

It looks like you forgot the post which claimed that you wanted peak oil to happen sooner rather than later. Here you go:

Yes. Because then real solutions would have a chance to take off? Perhaps? I'm not really sure what you are trying to say by this. Can you show a logical connection of how wanting "peak oil" to happen sooner means I want all that bad stuff to happen?

[Non Aligned States]

Whatever. I'm not responsible for whatever crimes are committed by sick, biosphere destroying, people. Your message is typical of what is wrong with most peoples reasoning and if you can't change this style of reasoning then humanity is doomed anyway. And deserves it.

Anyone who only presents criticisms for a problem and provides no viable means of solving the problem HAS become part of the problem. That's pretty much a fact.

Here you go deflecting the consequences of your actions on other people.

You live in a house that required fuel oil to construct. You eat food that requires fuel oil to grow. You use a computer which was made with fuel oil (not solely, but as part of the process), and the internet, which was based off cheap energy.

You are part of the problem. I don't see you putting up any solutions.

You can try to blame others all you like but it will do nothing to stop the fact that this is a grave you dug with your own hands.

Translation: "Neener neener. Here I am all sitting on my moral throne destroying the environment one barrel at a time, and I'm still better than you environmental destroying monkeys cause I never did it and if I did, it don't count!"

Hypocrite.

You seem to have a very clear almost prophetic view of the future as if you think you know exactly how people will react.

And what do you think several billion hungry people are going to do now that all those energy dependent farms don't run anymore hmm? Sit around and cry? No, they'll get off their asses and do something about putting food on their plate. But the farms don't run anymore, so there's no more easy food, and there's not really that much canned stuff to feed a city more than a few days. The end result? Food riots. Lynchings. When people get desperate, anything goes, especially murder.

It's called observing human nature. Past behaviors, present behaviors, they all have commonalities. And when faced with a crisis situation, people like someone to blame, preferably something meaty they can put their hands on. Witches, devil worshippers, Jews, Asians, Negroes, Feds, etc, etc. People who don't learn from the past, which you apparently aren't, are either doomed to repeat them, or become the past.

Trying to claim that I somehow like famine, disease , and civil war is defamatory speech.

But you do, oh you do. You want the precursors to such things to come to pass, and with glee I might add.

Or perhaps you simply lack any appreciable amount of foresight.

Or, most likely, you think the magical renewable energy fairy will magic up all that infrastructure (which only exists at a fraction of the quantity needed), prevent the big bad government from taking it to keep their own strength running, to keep those billions of oil dependent people fed, clothed and happy.

[Lacadaemon]

Why do you all have some doomsday view of this? If you really think it will be this bad then go out and help develop a good alternative. Solar and wind by the way are fine if you don't use energy intense appliances. The problem is people are trying to use energy like it is free. Solar and wind are not quite to that point yet.

Heavy industry (which you need for modern solar and wind) is energy intense. The return on energy invested in both those technologies is too low to support the sort of infrastructure that is needed to produce them. I'm not some nutter that will say they should be abandoned completely, and obviously they can be used in certain places as a supplement, but they can't replace what we need to maintain the sort of society that is capable of manufacturing the stuff that is needed to implement them.

The only viable option forward really is nuclear. And that might not work.

Still, on the bright side, no need to worry about carbon emission eh?

[Natapoc]

Or perhaps you simply lack any appreciable amount of foresight.

Thanks for the complements again "Non Aligned States"

Disagreement with you does not equal "lack any appreciable amount of foresight." Why must you put such flamebait into your posts?

Yes I disagree with your vision of the future. I think you are making stuff up just as you clearly think I'm wrong about what would happen. But that is no reason to talk to me like that.