Peak oil

[Virtud Tierra]

So I've been reading about the subject of peak oil. I'm suprised the topic doesn't come up very often in the media and in discussions considering the importance of having the economy in a steady decline once the supply comes up short to meet demand.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

The author of this website makes a pretty convincing, if not depressing case for the idea that peak oil will plunge the world into a recession that industrial civilization will never recover from

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug

A documentary on the subject, highlighting how poor planning and the sprawling suburban development has the American economy completely addicted and unprepared for a permentant decline in oil production.

The whole subject seems pretty grim to me. What do you guys think?

[New Dracora]

Automakers likely already feel burned by oil producers which is probably why hybrid vehicles and more fuel efficient vehicles are doing so well.

I believe there are also trials going on for a family van completely powered by hydrogen... and has comparable (and even better) performance to equivalent petrol-driven models (I saw it on Top Gear).


Long story short - once the process of producing hydrogen fuel is refined more and production is increased sufficiently oil companies will be screwed.

[Barringtonia]

Automakers likely already feel burned by oil producers which is probably why hybrid vehicles and more fuel efficient vehicles are doing so well.

I believe there are also trials going on for a family van completely powered by hydrogen... and has comparable (and even better) performance to equivalent petrol-driven models (I saw it on Top Gear).


Long story short - once the process of producing hydrogen fuel is refined more and production is increased oil companies are screwed.

I think the point made is that we think of petrol in terms of powering cars while forgetting that our entire global industry is based on petro-chemical products, if not an integral part - plastic for example - then very much involved in the production of practically anything you can imagine.

A lack of petrol drives up the costs of absolutely everything - we would almost need to entirely re-structure our way of life to live without cheap, abundant supply of oil.

[Virtud Tierra]

Hydrogen fuel isn't really a substitute for oil either. Its not an energy source, its a form of energy storage. It takes more energy to make hydrogen then you get from burning it. Hydrogen fuel today is made from natural gas, which is just a form of petroleum. Ultimately hydrogen is just a clean-burning fuel that would basically just strain the fossil fuel supply even more, especially considering the electricity needed to make it otherwise comes from coal-fired powerplants.

Coal that would be converted into liquid fuel.

[New Dracora]

Ok fair enough.

What about Oil-Shales then? Isn't 90% of all discovered potential oil in oil shales located in North America?

[Barringtonia]

Ok fair enough.

What about Oil-Shales then? Isn't 90% of all discovered potential oil in oil shales located in North America?

Still more expensive, the thing is that it's not about running out completely, it's about the expense of extraction rising and rising, which in turn makes the price of everything we currently expect as part of normal life rise as well

[Wilgrove]

What about the mass productions of Bio-Oil?

[NotRust]

Hydrogen fuel isn't really a substitute for oil either. Its not an energy source, its a form of energy storage. It takes more energy to make hydrogen then you get from burning it. Hydrogen fuel today is made from natural gas, which is just a form of petroleum. Ultimately hydrogen is just a clean-burning fuel that would basically just strain the fossil fuel supply even more, especially considering the electricity needed to make it otherwise comes from coal-fired powerplants.

Coal that would be converted into liquid fuel.

1) Hydrogen can also be made with electrolysis
2) Doesn't really matter than it uses more energy to make than it outputs
3) Nuclear reactors?

[Non Aligned States]

1) Hydrogen can also be made with electrolysis
2) Doesn't really matter than it uses more energy to make than it outputs
3) Nuclear reactors?

Some energy requirements can be met with alternative sources, but even fission power needs oil powered infrastructure to become viable. A switch is possible, but would take the sort of concerted effort that you're not going to find anywhere short of a war footing command economy.

[Free Commonalities]

This is nothing new. There is also oil shale. Oil will become more and more expensive to extract. There is still a lot of it, but it is harder to get.

This will make other forms of energy more competitive. It will also drive the biorefinery concept of using plants as a feedstock for a variety of products. For example with wheat you can have food, plastics, cosmetics, paints, alcohol, and ethanol made from it. Already companies like MGP Ingredients which makes a variety of products from wheat are positioning themselves to take oever the refinery process-- General Mills and a number of other companies are heavily invested in this as well.

I am not particularly afraid of this. The transition is being planned by giant companies without our knowledge which is a bit scary. Recently one of the vice presidents of Chevron became the CEO of ADM. ADM is the largest producer of ethanol and biodiesel in the United States. The transition is being planned quietly.

Engines will start to change, first there will be hybrids, then electric cars, then turbine electric hybrids which can run on a variety of different fuels. A turbine can run on any fuel that burns-- ethanol, perfume, gas, kerosene, diesel, you name it. There are also MFI (multiple fuel injection) piston engines designed to run on a variety of different fuels. The first fuel of choice of Henry Ford was not gasoline initially it was ethanol. Gas just proved to be cheaper.

This is a link to the book Winning The Oil Endgame which was a study commissioned by the United States defense department. Many of the things are quietly being done with little debate...
http://www.oilendgame.com/ReadTheBook.html

[Cameroi]

So I've been reading about the subject of peak oil. I'm suprised the topic doesn't come up very often in the media and in discussions considering the importance of having the economy in a steady decline once the supply comes up short to meet demand.

SURPRISED it doesn't come up?

consider who owns the corporate media.
who gains the most by widespread ignorance?
by feeding 'weee the people' 'infotainment' instead useful knowledge on which to base intelligent decisions.

and no, i'm not talking about 'jews' or 'chinese', i'm talking about that self serving doomsday machine which bennifits the few and is controlled by none. i.e. corporate capitolism.

the thing is, we don't NEED to be dependent on oil/coal/and/or fission. at all.

the "doom" is only if we remain as dependent on what we currently are,
to the degree we currently are,
until it is no longer possible to do so.

this we absolutely do NOT have to do. at all.

how we do not have to do so, is what those who exploit our ignorance don't want us to know.

[The Scandinvans]

What about soylent oil?

[Town of Mojo]

What about bunny blood?

[Alsatian Knights]

Hrm...Frontlines any one?

[JarVik]

Ok fair enough.

What about Oil-Shales then? Isn't 90% of all discovered potential oil in oil shales located in North America?

Last I heard it took more energy to extract the oil from the shale than that extract would then provide. While they may improve upon this and even pass the break even point one day we are talking about a low density energy source that would make the tars sands look like a neat and clean method by comparison.

Deep continental shelf sources of oil and arctic ocean oil sources are likely areas of major future expansion but ulitimately we appear to be consuming the last of the cheap oil very rapidly.

The holy grail for the fossil fuel industry is methal clathrates I believe. Mostly deep sea deposits but there are some buried in arctic areas that are more accessable. If we succesfully latch onto that teat though you can kiss the ice sheets goodbye.

[Soratsin]

3) Nuclear reactors?

Uneducated NIMBY-tards have made that unfeasible.

[Chrobalta]

The fact of the matter is, no matter what we do in the future, its going to cost a shitload. New energy infrastructure for alternatives will cost a fortune. The price per barrel of shale oil will also cost a shitload because of production costs(Not to mention is doesn't exactly help with climate change and is not good for the environment).

[JarVik]

Anyways, I see some serious economic impact for the decline of oil, but I mostly see us going to electric cars as the way forward and not an economic apocolypse. That and less air travel vacations and more ship cruise trips.

If we don't try to make the transition until things hit the wall then yes it will suck hard, but thats mostly a question for politics and lobby group pressures trying to prevent/delay a switch until they've made as much money as they can out of the oil economy. From that perspective N. America is likely to feel more hurt than elsewhere.

[JarVik]

Ok fair enough.

What about Oil-Shales then? Isn't 90% of all discovered potential oil in oil shales located in North America?

Last I heard it took more energy to extract the oil from the shale than that extract would then provide. While they may improve upon this and even pass the break even point one day we are talking about a low density energy source that would make the tars sands look like a neat and clean method by comparison.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale

Ok wiki puts it a bit pricer than the tar sands (rangeing from equivalent to double the cost). Also has similar environmental issues like high water volume needed for processing.

[LOL ANARCHY NUBZ]

Nuke power is teh win.

[Greed and Death]

Ok fair enough.

What about Oil-Shales then? Isn't 90% of all discovered potential oil in oil shales located in North America?

Last I heard it took more energy to extract the oil from the shale than that extract would then provide. While they may improve upon this and even pass the break even point one day we are talking about a low density energy source that would make the tars sands look like a neat and clean method by comparison.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale

Ok wiki puts it a bit pricer than the tar sands (rangeing from equivalent to double the cost). Also has similar environmental issues like high water volume needed for processing.

http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/r ... ancev2.pdf
This says profit from oil shale would be realize when oil is above $30 dollars a barrel.

[Xsyne]

The holy grail for the fossil fuel industry is methal clathrates I believe. Mostly deep sea deposits but there are some buried in arctic areas that are more accessable. If we succesfully latch onto that teat though you can kiss the ice sheets goodbye.

Do you mean methane hydrates?

[Greed and Death]

The holy grail for the fossil fuel industry is methal clathrates I believe. Mostly deep sea deposits but there are some buried in arctic areas that are more accessable. If we succesfully latch onto that teat though you can kiss the ice sheets goodbye.

Do you mean methane hydrates?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate
both names are correct.

[Virtud Tierra]

The main point to consider is that once fuel and energy prices get very high, around 30-40$ a barrel the costs will just keep rising as these alternative, energy-intensive sources start to decline as well. Synth fuel made from coal is a proven technology but there isn't a single coal-to-liquid plant in North America or Europe. There is one in South Africa and thats it. Our economy is completely unprepared for another oil shock.

You know how when gas prices go up, the cost of everything else goes up as well? It was bad when it cost $4.50 a gallon, imagine it at $8.00 or $15.00 a gallon. The economy would implode on itself.

It just looks like the government and corporations are going to go ahead and wait untill prices reach that point so the free market forces can start to scramble to fix it and by then it would be too late to prevent a major economic fallout.

[Cameroi]

ramping up production, demand, and lowering cost of existing wind and solar technology, while continuing improvements and bringing other intrinsically sustainables online. well within what there is nothing standing in the way of other then short sighted greed of the fanatical economic mafia.