The NSG 2011-2012 NFL Football Season thread....

[New West Guiana]

SNF!! Can't wait!!

[Bluth Corporation]

My mathematical NFL rankings after week 4:

Rank	Team	Old Rating	Old Rank	New Rating	Rank Change	% Rating Change
1	Baltimore Ravens	1.000	1	1.000	0	0.00%
2	Green Bay Packers	0.876	2	0.893	0	1.94%
3	New England Traitors	0.875	3	0.865	0	-1.14%
4	New Orleans Satans	0.819	5	0.849	1	3.66%
5	Houston Texans	0.814	6	0.824	1	1.23%
6	Detroit Lions	0.793	8	0.746	2	-5.93%
7	Pittsburgh Stealers	0.850	4	0.714	-3	-16.00%
8	New York Giants	0.739	9	0.699	1	-5.41%
9	San Diego Chargers	0.680	10	0.692	1	1.76%
10	New York Jets	0.802	7	0.657	-3	-18.08%
11	Tennessee Titans	0.567	15	0.644	4	13.58%
12	Philadelphia Eagles	0.656	11	0.608	-1	-7.32%
13	San Francisco 49ers	0.581	14	0.557	1	-4.13%
14	Chicago Bears	0.555	16	0.544	2	-1.98%
15	Buffalo Bills	0.597	13	0.542	-2	-9.21%
16	Washington Redskins	0.502	18	0.542	2	7.97%
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.513	17	0.535	0	4.29%
18	Oakland Raiders	0.631	12	0.535	-6	-15.21%
19	Atlanta Falcons	0.500	19	0.480	0	-4.00%
20	Dallas Cowboys	0.477	20	0.450	0	-5.66%
21	Cincinnati Bengals	0.385	21	0.403	0	4.68%
22	Arizona Cardinals	0.355	24	0.344	2	-3.10%
23	Indianapolis Colts	0.380	22	0.333	-1	-12.37%
24	Minnesota Vikings	0.325	26	0.287	2	-11.69%
25	Carolina Panthers	0.285	27	0.278	2	-2.46%
26	Denver Broncos	0.349	25	0.263	-1	-24.64%
27	Cleveland Browns	0.365	23	0.257	-4	-29.59%
28	Miami Dolphins	0.249	28	0.207	0	-16.87%
29	Kansas City Chiefs	0.000	32	0.087	3	N/A
30	Seattle Seahawks	0.011	31	0.056	1	409.09%
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.091	29	0.034	-2	-62.64%
32	St. Louis Rams	0.016	30	0.000	-2	-100.00%

For the week, home field advantage was worth 1.188 points, conferring a 1% increase in winning probability. For the season, home field advantage has been worth 2.650 points, conferring a 6.6% increase in winning probability.

[Sibirsky]

My mathematical NFL rankings after week 4:

Rank	Team	Old Rating	Old Rank	New Rating	Rank Change	% Rating Change
1	Baltimore Ravens	1.000	1	1.000	0	0.00%
2	Green Bay Packers	0.876	2	0.893	0	1.94%
3	New England Traitors	0.875	3	0.865	0	-1.14%
4	New Orleans Satans	0.819	5	0.849	1	3.66%
5	Houston Texans	0.814	6	0.824	1	1.23%
6	Detroit Lions	0.793	8	0.746	2	-5.93%
7	Pittsburgh Stealers	0.850	4	0.714	-3	-16.00%
8	New York Giants	0.739	9	0.699	1	-5.41%
9	San Diego Chargers	0.680	10	0.692	1	1.76%
10	New York Jets	0.802	7	0.657	-3	-18.08%
11	Tennessee Titans	0.567	15	0.644	4	13.58%
12	Philadelphia Eagles	0.656	11	0.608	-1	-7.32%
13	San Francisco 49ers	0.581	14	0.557	1	-4.13%
14	Chicago Bears	0.555	16	0.544	2	-1.98%
15	Buffalo Bills	0.597	13	0.542	-2	-9.21%
16	Washington Redskins	0.502	18	0.542	2	7.97%
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.513	17	0.535	0	4.29%
18	Oakland Raiders	0.631	12	0.535	-6	-15.21%
19	Atlanta Falcons	0.500	19	0.480	0	-4.00%
20	Dallas Cowboys	0.477	20	0.450	0	-5.66%
21	Cincinnati Bengals	0.385	21	0.403	0	4.68%
22	Arizona Cardinals	0.355	24	0.344	2	-3.10%
23	Indianapolis Colts	0.380	22	0.333	-1	-12.37%
24	Minnesota Vikings	0.325	26	0.287	2	-11.69%
25	Carolina Panthers	0.285	27	0.278	2	-2.46%
26	Denver Broncos	0.349	25	0.263	-1	-24.64%
27	Cleveland Browns	0.365	23	0.257	-4	-29.59%
28	Miami Dolphins	0.249	28	0.207	0	-16.87%
29	Kansas City Chiefs	0.000	32	0.087	3	N/A
30	Seattle Seahawks	0.011	31	0.056	1	409.09%
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.091	29	0.034	-2	-62.64%
32	St. Louis Rams	0.016	30	0.000	-2	-100.00%

How are you calculating these, Bluth? Or at least, what data goes into it?

[Bluth Corporation]

My mathematical NFL rankings after week 4:

Rank	Team	Old Rating	Old Rank	New Rating	Rank Change	% Rating Change
1	Baltimore Ravens	1.000	1	1.000	0	0.00%
2	Green Bay Packers	0.876	2	0.893	0	1.94%
3	New England Traitors	0.875	3	0.865	0	-1.14%
4	New Orleans Satans	0.819	5	0.849	1	3.66%
5	Houston Texans	0.814	6	0.824	1	1.23%
6	Detroit Lions	0.793	8	0.746	2	-5.93%
7	Pittsburgh Stealers	0.850	4	0.714	-3	-16.00%
8	New York Giants	0.739	9	0.699	1	-5.41%
9	San Diego Chargers	0.680	10	0.692	1	1.76%
10	New York Jets	0.802	7	0.657	-3	-18.08%
11	Tennessee Titans	0.567	15	0.644	4	13.58%
12	Philadelphia Eagles	0.656	11	0.608	-1	-7.32%
13	San Francisco 49ers	0.581	14	0.557	1	-4.13%
14	Chicago Bears	0.555	16	0.544	2	-1.98%
15	Buffalo Bills	0.597	13	0.542	-2	-9.21%
16	Washington Redskins	0.502	18	0.542	2	7.97%
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.513	17	0.535	0	4.29%
18	Oakland Raiders	0.631	12	0.535	-6	-15.21%
19	Atlanta Falcons	0.500	19	0.480	0	-4.00%
20	Dallas Cowboys	0.477	20	0.450	0	-5.66%
21	Cincinnati Bengals	0.385	21	0.403	0	4.68%
22	Arizona Cardinals	0.355	24	0.344	2	-3.10%
23	Indianapolis Colts	0.380	22	0.333	-1	-12.37%
24	Minnesota Vikings	0.325	26	0.287	2	-11.69%
25	Carolina Panthers	0.285	27	0.278	2	-2.46%
26	Denver Broncos	0.349	25	0.263	-1	-24.64%
27	Cleveland Browns	0.365	23	0.257	-4	-29.59%
28	Miami Dolphins	0.249	28	0.207	0	-16.87%
29	Kansas City Chiefs	0.000	32	0.087	3	N/A
30	Seattle Seahawks	0.011	31	0.056	1	409.09%
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.091	29	0.034	-2	-62.64%
32	St. Louis Rams	0.016	30	0.000	-2	-100.00%

How are you calculating these, Bluth? Or at least, what data goes into it?

Points scored vs. points allowed, offensive yards vs. defensive yards allowed, offensive vs. defensive starting field position.

[Langorham]

How are you calculating these, Bluth? Or at least, what data goes into it?

Points scored vs. points allowed, offensive yards vs. defensive yards allowed, offensive vs. defensive starting field position.

Do you also include return yards from punts, kickoffs and return yards from fumbles and interceptions? And what about turnovers? All of these effect starting field position and points scored and allowed.

I have not worked up my NFL ratings yet as I need about 4 weeks of games to get it done. I use points per 100 yards gained and allowed. It includes all return yards and points from returns. I then average offense and defense yards gained and given between opponents and then multiply the team point per 100 yards gained and allowed to get a score. It isn't perfect, but it works for me.

[Bluth Corporation]

Points scored vs. points allowed, offensive yards vs. defensive yards allowed, offensive vs. defensive starting field position.

Do you also include return yards from punts, kickoffs and return yards from fumbles and interceptions? And what about turnovers? All of these effect starting field position and points scored and allowed.

Thus, they're already factored in by my use of points scored vs. points allowed and starting field position.

Turnovers are deliberately left out, because they're mostly a matter of luck. I also weigh the actual result against a Pythagorean expectation to account for things like that.

[Langorham]

Do you also include return yards from punts, kickoffs and return yards from fumbles and interceptions? And what about turnovers? All of these effect starting field position and points scored and allowed.

Thus, they're already factored in by my use of points scored vs. points allowed and starting field position.

Turnovers are deliberately left out, because they're mostly a matter of luck. I also weigh the actual result against a Pythagorean expectation to account for things like that.

Okay, but, and you knew there was a but. Somehow no matter what one does or says there always seems to be a but involved.

I do not think turnovers are a matter of luck. Some teams practice stripping the ball from players, tip drills, etc., and some do not. Also some players have a knack for being in the right place at the right time and some players ( cough-cough, reference the Lions vs Cowboys ) have a knack for making turnovers.

Check this out.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/powerRanki ... atIfSports

[Bluth Corporation]

Thus, they're already factored in by my use of points scored vs. points allowed and starting field position.

Turnovers are deliberately left out, because they're mostly a matter of luck. I also weigh the actual result against a Pythagorean expectation to account for things like that.

Okay, but, and you knew there was a but. Somehow no matter what one does or says there always seems to be a but involved.

I do not think turnovers are a matter of luck. Some teams practice stripping the ball from players, tip drills, etc., and some do not.

And that's not the same thing as actually creating a turnover, since it's still pretty random as far as who actually comes up with it.

Also some players have a knack for being in the right place at the right time

See, I just don't believe that. It's a statistical anomaly that will regress to the mean over time, and so you can't count on it happening again, and for that very reason it's not very relevant to determining how good an individual player or team is.

and some players ( cough-cough, reference the Lions vs Cowboys ) have a knack for making turnovers.

This is different, but again, creating a loose ball or forcing bad throws that lend themselves to being picked off is one thing, but actually coming up with the fumble or the pick is a matter of luck.

[Langorham]

Okay, but, and you knew there was a but. Somehow no matter what one does or says there always seems to be a but involved.

I do not think turnovers are a matter of luck. Some teams practice stripping the ball from players, tip drills, etc., and some do not.

And that's not the same thing as actually creating a turnover, since it's still pretty random as far as who actually comes up with it.

Also some players have a knack for being in the right place at the right time

See, I just don't believe that. It's a statistical anomaly that will regress to the mean over time, and so you can't count on it happening again, and for that very reason it's not very relevant to determining how good an individual player or team is.

and some players ( cough-cough, reference the Lions vs Cowboys ) have a knack for making turnovers.

This is different, but again, creating a loose ball or forcing bad throws that lend themselves to being picked off is one thing, but actually coming up with the fumble or the pick is a matter of luck.

I still say skill creates luck, luck does not create skill.

Okay. So the "big" game of this weekend is Packers vs Falcons on Sunday night.

I did a quick work up on this game and I have the Packers over the Falcons 31 - 24.

[Chetssaland]

Ok, one quarter of the season is done, which means it's time for an educated prediction for the playoffs.

NFC East: Dallas
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: New Orleans
NFC West: Arizona
WC: Detroit
Tampa

AFC West: Oakland
AFC South: Houston
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC East: New England
WC: Tennessee
New York

[Kentsland]

Ok, one quarter of the season is done, which means it's time for an educated prediction for the playoffs.

NFC East: Dallas
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: New Orleans
NFC West: Arizona
WC: Detroit
Tampa

AFC West: Oakland
AFC South: Houston
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC East: New England
WC: Tennessee
New York

Titans in WC? I think the Bills have a better chance over them or say the Steelers.
And i pick 49ers over Cardinals.

[Chetssaland]

Ok, one quarter of the season is done, which means it's time for an educated prediction for the playoffs.

NFC East: Dallas
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: New Orleans
NFC West: Arizona
WC: Detroit
Tampa

AFC West: Oakland
AFC South: Houston
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC East: New England
WC: Tennessee
New York

Titans in WC? I think the Bills have a better chance over them or say the Steelers.
And i pick 49ers over Cardinals.

The Bills are more of a 'believe it when I see it' type of team. Pittsburgh has been fairly sub-par this year. San Fran and Arizona have been on opposite sides of close games this year... but I don't have it in my heart to send Alex Smith to the playoffs. I have a gut feeling the tide will shift in the west.

[Maurepas]

Titans in WC? I think the Bills have a better chance over them or say the Steelers.
And i pick 49ers over Cardinals.

The Bills are more of a 'believe it when I see it' type of team. Pittsburgh has been fairly sub-par this year. San Fran and Arizona have been on opposite sides of close games this year... but I don't have it in my heart to send Alex Smith to the playoffs. I have a gut feeling the tide will shift in the west.

They beat the Patriots, what more do you want? Who have the Titans beaten that are better than the Patriots?

[Kentsland]

The Bills are more of a 'believe it when I see it' type of team. Pittsburgh has been fairly sub-par this year. San Fran and Arizona have been on opposite sides of close games this year... but I don't have it in my heart to send Alex Smith to the playoffs. I have a gut feeling the tide will shift in the west.

They beat the Patriots, what more do you want? Who have the Titans beaten that are better than the Patriots?

The titans beat the Ravens, which is there only claim to success. Oh and Hasslebeck doing great. I still think the Bills are legit, but they wont continueing doing this great. Maybe 10-6, 9-7. The Steelers can and will be able to get back on tracks.

And i think Alex Smith is maybe underrated, when i have seen him play its quite well. And the only game they lost was a real close one.

[Miley World]

Tennessee have a good qb, the best rb and a good defense, why they wouldn't make the playoffs?

My predictions:

NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: New Orleans
NFC West: Arizona
WC: Detroit
Tampa

AFC West: San Diego
AFC South: Tennessee
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC East: NY Jets
WC: New England
Houston

[Kentsland]

Tennessee have a good qb, the best rb and a good defense, why they wouldn't make the playoffs?

My predictions:

NFC East: Philadelphia
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: New Orleans
NFC West: Arizona
WC: Detroit
Tampa

AFC West: San Diego
AFC South: Tennessee
AFC North: Baltimore
AFC East: NY Jets
WC: New England
Houston

You think the Jets will get the title?

[Chetssaland]

The Bills are more of a 'believe it when I see it' type of team. Pittsburgh has been fairly sub-par this year. San Fran and Arizona have been on opposite sides of close games this year... but I don't have it in my heart to send Alex Smith to the playoffs. I have a gut feeling the tide will shift in the west.

They beat the Patriots, what more do you want? Who have the Titans beaten that are better than the Patriots?

The Browns beat the Patriots last year too, so individual games don't really matter in the regular season. Let's not forget that New England was up big on the Bills before they collapsed. The Pats have brutal pass defense anyways, so I wouldn't call them top five in the league this year.

[New West Guiana]

My predictions:

NFC East: Philadelphia

You seriously think the 1-3(soon 1-4) "Dream team" will make the playoffs? They're over rated just like "Americas team" is every year and like the bears were last year. Oh and just like the Patriots are every year.

[Serrland]

Well, Al Davis died. Not a fan, but I will gladly recognize his tremendous impact on the NFL. I hope he went peacefully and painlessly.

[The lepearchauns]

Al Davis and Ralph Wilson essentially founded the NFL. Their rivalry is as big as it ever has been early this season and its been fun to watch. Condolences to Raider nation from Bills Country

[Bluth Corporation]

PAINTER!

GARCON!

FUCKING AWESOME!

[Serrland]

PAINTER!

GARCON!

FUCKING AWESOME!

I picked up Garcon from waivers this week. He is starting in my lineup. He has given me 23 points. And it's not even halftime. This is glorious.

[Mytannion]

Vick is having a shocker this week for the Eagles. Wow.

3 interceptions, 1 fumble.

[Serrland]

Vick is having a shocker this week for the Eagles. Wow.

3 interceptions, 1 fumble.

Aye, he's reverting back to his Atlanta form. To think I considered the Eagles one of the best in the NFL at the start of the year...

[Mytannion]

Vick is having a shocker this week for the Eagles. Wow.

3 interceptions, 1 fumble.

Aye, he's reverting back to his Atlanta form. To think I considered the Eagles one of the best in the NFL at the start of the year...

To be fair, the Bills are playing very well - but the third interception was absolutely stupid, the linebacker was right there - and he threw it at him. The first was just great defense, second was a great solo dive - although the pass was a bit wayward and the fumble wasn't a fumble. Bills are playing well on both sides of the ball at the moment.