Republican Primary Megathread (poll now updated)

[Alien Space Bats]

I wouldn't count the Republicans out yet. Remember we Democrats had a long drawn out Primary that nearly led to a Convention fight last time, and we came out triumphant. It wont be the primary itself, but who comes out and how that matters. If Frothy does like Clinton did and refuse to face reality as the Convention gets closer, then Romney will come out triumphant.

The 2008 Democratic campaign featured two strong candidates, each of whom improved and grew their respective bases of support as the campaign progressed.

This campaign features four deeply flawed candidates, each of whom looks worse and worse as the campaign goes one, and only one of whom (Ron Paul) is succeeding at increasing the size and effectiveness of his base of support.

It's not the inherent division of the party that makes the difference here, nor is it the timing of when the General Election campaign actually begins. Its the fact that a long primary season allows winners to blossom while withering losers.

If the GOP had a winner right now, the length of this campaign season would be helping them. They don't, however, so its length is killing them instead.

[Jocabia]

I wouldn't count the Republicans out yet. Remember we Democrats had a long drawn out Primary that nearly led to a Convention fight last time, and we came out triumphant. It wont be the primary itself, but who comes out and how that matters. If Frothy does like Clinton did and refuse to face reality as the Convention gets closer, then Romney will come out triumphant.

In both cases, the establishment candidate failed to excite the base. However, for the Dems, the establishment candidate lost. If not for that, we may have had a different outcome.

Here, the candidate that is failing to excite those he needs to come out strongly for him is going to win. Obama and Santorum are more comparable in that way. And, frankly, Santorum might have won if he would have been as organized as Obama. He'd at least have a chance.

Also, Obama didn't make his way as the anti-Clinton. Obama brought a lot of new excitement. Santorum is just the latest of the anti-Romney candidates. He's even called himself such.

[Jocabia]

I wouldn't count the Republicans out yet. Remember we Democrats had a long drawn out Primary that nearly led to a Convention fight last time, and we came out triumphant. It wont be the primary itself, but who comes out and how that matters. If Frothy does like Clinton did and refuse to face reality as the Convention gets closer, then Romney will come out triumphant.

The 2008 Democratic campaign featured two strong candidates, each of whom improved and grew their respective bases of support as the campaign progressed.

This campaign features four deeply flawed candidates, each of whom looks worse and worse as the campaign goes one, and only one of whom (Ron Paul) is succeeding at increasing the size and effectiveness of his base of support.

It's not the inherent division of the party that makes the difference here, nor is it the timing of when the General Election campaign actually begins. Its the fact that a long primary season allows winners to blossom while withering losers.

If the GOP had a winner right now, the length of this campaign season would be helping them. They don't, however, so its length is killing them instead.

Same point, but much more eloquent than my answer.

[Absurd Ramblings]

Anyone else think statistics themselves can be a direct cause for a voter voting differently? Kinda screws up the process.

[Kaeshar]

Anyone else think statistics themselves can be a direct cause for a voter voting differently? Kinda screws up the process.

It's possible, which is why CNN doesn't release any of the entrance polls for the state(s) voting at the moment until the voting ends.

However, while most people don't base their vote soley on the statistics, it could sway some.

All the more reason for the candidates to make their arguments and convince people.

[Sane Outcasts]

Anyone else think statistics themselves can be a direct cause for a voter voting differently? Kinda screws up the process.

It's possible, which is why CNN doesn't release any of the entrance polls for the state(s) voting at the moment until the voting ends.

However, while most people don't base their vote soley on the statistics, it could sway some.

All the more reason for the candidates to make their arguments and convince people.

It's a large part of the general election, where the undecided swing voters can often change their mind at the last minute based on media coverage and polls. The base that votes in primaries usually isn't as easily swayed, but the effects of the "horse race" style media coverage are still felt when none of the candidates truly appeal to voters and so support fluctuates as one appears stronger than the others. Just look at the rise and fall of every single not-Romney in the race up to Santorum, who I believe benefited more from the timing of his rise in support than anything else.

[Free Soviets]

Anyone else think statistics themselves can be a direct cause for a voter voting differently? Kinda screws up the process.

well, that just helps people better do what they already are trying to do. the point in a multi-candidate race is to have the guy closest to you win. only this doesn't necessarily mean the guy who is literally your first choice - you would much rather have your second choice than your third choice, after all. and so you try to figure out how everybody else is going to vote, so you can help the guy closest to you who also has a good chance win. but, and this is the kicker, everybody else is doing the same thing. so what you really need to do is figure out who everybody else thinks everybody else will be voting for, etc.

the whole thing is inherently problematic, really.

[Serrland]

Still haven't decided who to vote for tomorrow. Like I said earlier, I'm still leaning towards either writing in Huntsman or writing in a dream candidate. My district should go Romney anyways, not that there are many Republicans here.

[Revolutopia]

Still haven't decided who to vote for tomorrow. Like I said earlier, I'm still leaning towards either writing in Huntsman or writing in a dream candidate. My district should go Romney anyways, not that there are many Republicans here.

Have a laugh, vote Santorum.

[Serrland]

Still haven't decided who to vote for tomorrow. Like I said earlier, I'm still leaning towards either writing in Huntsman or writing in a dream candidate. My district should go Romney anyways, not that there are many Republicans here.

Have a laugh, vote Santorum.

No no, I love my state too much to help contribute to the embarrassment, should he win.

[New Conglomerate]

Have a laugh, vote Santorum.

No no, I love my state too much to help contribute to the embarrassment, should he win.

Joe Walsh got elected from your state, most of your ex-governors are in prison...

There really isn't much of a bottom in Illinois anymore.

[Serrland]

No no, I love my state too much to help contribute to the embarrassment, should he win.

Joe Walsh got elected from your state, most of your ex-governors are in prison...

There really isn't much of a bottom in Illinois anymore.

We also gave Abraham Lincoln, US Grant, Edward Dunne, Adlai Stevenson, and Obama - we have a pretty high ceiling, too

[Dvardis]

Tbh Illinois looks like the end of this primary season. When santorum loses it (which he will, by anywhere from 4 to 14 points) he will cease to have any practical effect on the race. Romney would have to screw up in a massive way (i.e. massive enough that he could lose California or New York) to bring this anywhere near a brokered convention.

It's been an interesting one this year though

[Serrland]

Heading to the polling place now over lunch break. We'll see what happens.

[Farnhamia]

Heading to the polling place now over lunch break. We'll see what happens.

Vote a few times for us!

[Serrland]

Heading to the polling place now over lunch break. We'll see what happens.

Vote a few times for us!

I'm a Cook County voter - if I don't vote a few times I'll find myself in some seriously hot water

[Grave_n_idle]

Yay! Fake outrage!

http://news.yahoo.com/gingrich-says-nir ... -news.html

It's impossible that Gingrich is really so stupid he doesn't 'get it', so I guess he's just being a twat.

[Ashmoria]

Yay! Fake outrage!

http://news.yahoo.com/gingrich-says-nir ... -news.html

It's impossible that Gingrich is really so stupid he doesn't 'get it', so I guess he's just being a twat.

the son says that deniro is doing us a great favor. without something to get worked up about newt would deflate like last years football. except for his head. and no one wants to see that.

[Farnhamia]

Yay! Fake outrage!

http://news.yahoo.com/gingrich-says-nir ... -news.html

It's impossible that Gingrich is really so stupid he doesn't 'get it', so I guess he's just being a twat.

Hey, it was an easy shot to make and it blows the dog-whistle for those upset about the nigger in the White House and the nigger-lovers in Hollywood, without Newt having to actually say, "I'm not a racist, but ..."

[Sane Outcasts]

Yay! Fake outrage!

http://news.yahoo.com/gingrich-says-nir ... -news.html

It's impossible that Gingrich is really so stupid he doesn't 'get it', so I guess he's just being a twat.

Those last five words sum up his post-Speaker career, including this campaign, quite well.

[Ashmoria]

Yay! Fake outrage!

http://news.yahoo.com/gingrich-says-nir ... -news.html

It's impossible that Gingrich is really so stupid he doesn't 'get it', so I guess he's just being a twat.

Hey, it was an easy shot to make and it blows the dog-whistle for those upset about the nigger in the White House and the nigger-lovers in Hollywood, without Newt having to actually say, "I'm not a racist, but ..."

have you seen the articles about the "don't re-nig" bumper stickers?

[Farnhamia]

Hey, it was an easy shot to make and it blows the dog-whistle for those upset about the nigger in the White House and the nigger-lovers in Hollywood, without Newt having to actually say, "I'm not a racist, but ..."

have you seen the articles about the "don't re-nig" bumper stickers?

I have not. I'll go look.



http://www.thegrio.com/politics/creator-of-dont-re-nig-in-2012-bumper-sticker-says-i-am-not-racist.php

[Cannot think of a name]

have you seen the articles about the "don't re-nig" bumper stickers?

I have not. I'll go look.



http://www.thegrio.com/politics/creator-of-dont-re-nig-in-2012-bumper-sticker-says-i-am-not-racist.php

"I'm not racist, I'm just using a racial epithet to demean a public figure and playing on racial fears in an attempt to bring down a person based upon his race...what's so racist about that?"

[Ashmoria]

i am hoping that the sales of these bumperstickers are so low that only the shock of seeing one gets media attention.

the list of things wrong with it is so long that its hard to keep from ranting (hopefully about nothing).

[Serrland]

Didn't look like voter turnout was very high. There were only three other voters at my polling place, but it could be because I went at about 1:30 on a weekday. Also, my area is really heavily Democratic, so no surprise with few Republicans voting, I suppose.