Republican Primary Megathread (poll now updated)

[Gauthier]

Only Mitt Romney from <3 1/2 hours is a valid Mitt Romney.

Obviously you missed out on the Chamittleon shifts.

[Farnhamia]

Obviously you missed out on the Chamittleon shifts.

We should start calling him "Odo."

[Gauthier]

Obviously you missed out on the Chamittleon shifts.

We should start calling him "Odo."

So wrong, yet accurate.

[Grave_n_idle]

Only Mitt Romney from <3 1/2 hours is a valid Mitt Romney.

There's a certain expectation that politicians will abandon some long-held views that they espoused quite openly, many years ago.

Mitt has distinguished himself so far, this year, by being willing to drop a long-held view he held this morning if it looks like it will cost him political capital.


Democrats should embrace it, it's like having a spy in the GOP. Want to know exactly what the up-to-the-minute Republican zeitgeist is? Just look at Romney and see what new positions he holds since yesterday.

[Ashmoria]

It's official. Romney is a Gaffe singularity. He's on par with Dan Quayle and George Bush in saying stupid things nonstop.

Well while i havent been 100% up to date with this years GOP debates, i have been watching GOP debates from 2008 and Romney seemed like a very favorable candidate to me. Far better than Ron Paul and that NYC ex mayor, Gilliani i think? Anyway how things seem is mainly a matter of personal preferance.

the "fun" thing is that in '08 romney was the conservative alternative to john mccain.

in '12 he is the moderate candidate even though he has moved quite far to the right.

[Tmutarakhan]

I love how they keep referring to the possibility of an open convention as a "floor fight", keeps making me flash back to this or this. We can dream, can't we?

The siren in the Ukrainian footage makes it sound like Pac Man kicking up a notch.

The tear-gas is a particularly nice touch. Even Dems '68 didn't have tear gas inside the convention.

[Alien Space Bats]

Democrats should embrace it, it's like having a spy in the GOP. Want to know exactly what the up-to-the-minute Republican zeitgeist is? Just look at Romney and see what new positions he holds since yesterday.

So he's kind of a walking mood ring?

[Sane Outcasts]

Democrats should embrace it, it's like having a spy in the GOP. Want to know exactly what the up-to-the-minute Republican zeitgeist is? Just look at Romney and see what new positions he holds since yesterday.

So he's kind of a walking mood ring?

More of a wind vane than a mood ring, especially since Mitt looks like a cock every time he turns whichever way the wind is blowing.

[Gauthier]

So he's kind of a walking mood ring?

More of a wind vane than a mood ring, especially since Mitt looks like a cock every time he turns whichever way the wind is blowing.

Not to mention when the political wind is particularly strong he spins all over the place.

[Goobergunchia]

Romney wins all 20 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico.

Delegate count update: Romney 465, Santorum 184, Gingrich 138, Paul 35.

[Farnhamia]

Romney wins all 20 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico.

Delegate count update: Romney 465, Santorum 184, Gingrich 138, Paul 35.

The New York Times shows Romney 501, Santorum 253, Gingrich 136, Paul 50. Where did you get your delegate count?

[Jocabia]

Romney wins all 20 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico.

Delegate count update: Romney 465, Santorum 184, Gingrich 138, Paul 35.

The New York Times shows Romney 501, Santorum 253, Gingrich 136, Paul 50. Where did you get your delegate count?

It's just numbers wanking at this point. I went through the remaining states giving Santorum a really, really good outcome and at best he's going to get Romney to come up a few delegates short. And the chances of Santorum getting that good of an outcome is almost non-existent. The math just doesn't favor any remaining candidate. They can only delay the inevitable. Especially when all of those unbound delegates start to recognize that allowing things to continue doesn't make sense. They'll start lining up behind the inevitable winner just like they did for Obama.

Santorum took his shot. He gave it the good ol' college try, but he wasn't organized enough (he basically gave away nearly 100 delegates). And even if by some miracle he prevented Romney from making 1144, Romney is going to finish up with so many more delegates than Santorum that the GOP would have to ignore both the delegate counts and the popular (not to mention common sense, if we're talking about giving it to Santorum) to give it to anyone but Romney.

The more obvious this becomes the more endorsements you'll see for Romney, the more you'll see voters start to gel behind Romney just to end this thing, and the more you'll see everyone starting to become disinterested and start focusing on the general. It was possible for Santorum if he'd been more organized and believed in himself a bit more at the start, but it's too little too late at this point.

[Farnhamia]

The New York Times shows Romney 501, Santorum 253, Gingrich 136, Paul 50. Where did you get your delegate count?

It's just numbers wanking at this point. I went through the remaining states giving Santorum a really, really good outcome and at best he's going to get Romney to come up a few delegates short. And the chances of Santorum getting that good of an outcome is almost non-existent. The math just doesn't favor any remaining candidate. They can only delay the inevitable. Especially when all of those unbound delegates start to recognize that allowing things to continue doesn't make sense. They'll start lining up behind the inevitable winner just like they did for Obama.

Santorum took his shot. He gave it the good ol' college try, but he wasn't organized enough (he basically gave away nearly 100 delegates). And even if by some miracle he prevented Romney from making 1144, Romney is going to finish up with so many more delegates than Santorum that the GOP would have to ignore both the delegate counts and the popular (not to mention common sense, if we're talking about giving it to Santorum) to give it to anyone but Romney.

The more obvious this becomes the more endorsements you'll see for Romney, the more you'll see voters start to gel behind Romney just to end this thing, and the more you'll see everyone starting to become disinterested and start focusing on the general. It was possible for Santorum if he'd been more organized and believed in himself a bit more at the start, but it's too little too late at this point.

True enough, but if Santorum gets enough delegates, say 500 or more, then he gets a seat at the adult table at the convention, a voice in picking the VP nominee, some say in the platform. If the party leaders tell him to get lost, he can convey that message very easily to his followers and then we're talking landslide for Obama of epic proportions (I think the President will be re-elected handily anyway). If the Santorum faction of the Base sits this out, the GOP is doomed.

[Kaeshar]

Romney wins all 20 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico.

Delegate count update: Romney 465, Santorum 184, Gingrich 138, Paul 35.

The New York Times shows Romney 501, Santorum 253, Gingrich 136, Paul 50. Where did you get your delegate count?

CNN has Romney 518, Santorum 239, Gingrich 139, and Paul 69. Not sure where the discrepancy is coming from.

Still though, Jocabia is right, its pretty much just 'numbers wanking' at this point.

[Shrillland]

I wouldn't count the Republicans out yet. Remember we Democrats had a long drawn out Primary that nearly led to a Convention fight last time, and we came out triumphant. It wont be the primary itself, but who comes out and how that matters. If Frothy does like Clinton did and refuse to face reality as the Convention gets closer, then Romney will come out triumphant.

[Kaeshar]

I wouldn't count the Republicans out yet. Remember we Democrats had a long drawn out Primary that nearly led to a Convention fight last time, and we came out triumphant. It wont be the primary itself, but who comes out and how that matters. If Frothy does like Clinton did and refuse to face reality as the Convention gets closer, then Romney will come out triumphant.

True, however the difference between the number of delegates was closer in 2008 (and Hillary was being stubborn) than it is right now (that could change at any point however) and they didn't have two others hogging the delegates. Edwards dropped out really early, remember? Which meant that they only had to compete for delegates with each other.

Also, Frothys reality is his own reality, lol.

[Wikkiwallana]

I wouldn't count the Republicans out yet. Remember we Democrats had a long drawn out Primary that nearly led to a Convention fight last time, and we came out triumphant. It wont be the primary itself, but who comes out and how that matters. If Frothy does like Clinton did and refuse to face reality as the Convention gets closer, then Romney will come out triumphant.

True, however the difference between the number of delegates was closer in 2008 (and Hillary was being stubborn) than it is right now (that could change at any point however) and they didn't have two others hogging the delegates. Edwards dropped out really early, remember? Which meant that they only had to compete for delegates with each other.

Also, Frothys reality is his own reality, lol.

And Gingrich and Paul aren't?

[New Conglomerate]

I wouldn't count the Republicans out yet. Remember we Democrats had a long drawn out Primary that nearly led to a Convention fight last time, and we came out triumphant. It wont be the primary itself, but who comes out and how that matters. If Frothy does like Clinton did and refuse to face reality as the Convention gets closer, then Romney will come out triumphant.

If there's been one familiar refrain among Republicans during this presidential primary, it's been that the hard-fought battle between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and other contenders hasn't hurt the party – arguably, it's even strengthened it.

"Don't always assume that a primary fight is a bad thing," Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Mar. 7 on CNN. "In fact, I think it's the opposite. I think it's going to be great for our party."

And frequently, as a point of reference, Republicans point to the long – and, at times, bitter – intra-party battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 as evidence that an extended race to the nomination isn’t necessarily a hindrance to winning the White House.

But there are important differences between the two cycles. Some of them might serve as a warning sign for the GOP, such as less money and a more damaged brand. And some might give the party encouragement, like more enthusiasm among Republicans.

Of course, an important caveat: In some ways, it’s difficult to compare 2008 (a race without an incumbent and with two history-making primary candidates) with 2012 (when there’s a sitting president in the Oval Office).

At this point in the Democratic primary in 2008, Obama and Clinton had each heavily outraised Republicans’ fundraising haul through the first couple of months of 2012.

In February of 2008, just as the Democratic campaign had appeared to shift into a two-person race, the Obama campaign raised $55 million for the month, and had $39 million in the bank going into March. Clinton raised $35 million over the same time period, and had $29 million in cash on hand. (It’s worth noting, though, that much of Clinton’s money was reserved for the general election, and she couldn’t use in the primary season.)

Compare that to the money raised by Santorum and Romney over February, according to their own campaigns’ estimates (official numbers have not yet been filed with the Federal Election Commission). Romney raised $11.5 million in February and Santorum raised about $9 million. Romney had just $7.3 million in the bank at the end of the month, though, suggesting that his campaign is spending at a rate that could threaten to bleed him dry by November, especially if the primary continues for a while.

A discrepancy would suggest some diminished enthusiasm for the Republican candidates this cycle, at least at first glance.

But there are some important things to keep in mind: First, overall fundraising is down in 2012 versus 2008, in part due to the impact of a deep recession that onset after the 2008 primary.

More Republican money has also flowed to super PACs that support the various GOP candidates. These groups didn’t exist in the last Democratic primary, and one Romney super PAC alone, Restore Our Future, has already spent over $30 million this primary season.

Perhaps the most illuminating figures on the impact of the Republican primary campaign comes from a series of national NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls and the exit polling conducted of voters in key battleground state primaries.

By March of 2008, both Obama and Clinton enjoyed net-positive favorability ratings among the public at large (Obama: 51 positive, 28 negative; Clinton: 45 positive, 43 negative according to the March 2008 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll).

Romney and Santorum haven’t fared as well with the general public, according to this month’s numbers, also taken from the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Romney has a 28 percent positive rating among U.S. adults, and a 39 percent negative rating. Santorum has a 26 percent positive rating, and a 39 percent negative rating. They each perform much better with Republican primary voters.

And in terms of the impact on each party’s brand, the Democratic Party had a 45 percent positive rating among registered voters in March of 2008, and a 35 percent negative rating. Four years later, the Republican Party has a 32 percent positive rating, and a 43 percent negative rating.

But the GOP’s ratings represent a recovery of sorts from the party’s depths in mid-2010, when the August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from that year had the Republican Party with just a 24 percent positive rating, and a 46 percent negative rating.

Republicans are also still dealing with the fallout from an unpopular two-term president in George W. Bush, who preceded Obama. The wars Bush had started are still winding down, and Obama still warns of a return to the policies of the years that preceded him, attacking Bush by implication.

The Bush years also left Republicans with a more fractious coalition with emerging fault lines of social issues and foreign and economic policy. Given those divisions, it might be tougher for any of these candidates to capture a broader swath of the electorate.

The figures from both primaries suggest that Democrats were happier with their choice of candidates than Republicans have been this cycle.

Fifty-seven percent of Republicans who voted in the Mar. 6 Ohio primary said in exit polls that they would be satisfied with Romney as the eventual nominee.

By comparison, 73 percent of Democrats who voted in the Ohio primary four years ago said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 66 percent of Democrats said the same of Obama that same cycle.

Nationally, 45 percent of Republican primary voters said in the March NBC/WSJ poll that they would support Romney with enthusiasm, and 42 percent said they would support Santorum with enthusiasm.

Four years ago, in the same national poll, 60 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton with enthusiasm, and 52 percent expressed enthusiastic support for Obama.

But in 2008, Democrats weren’t being measured against an incumbent president like Republicans are this cycle. The differences between the candidates were also more stylistic in 2008 than ideological, especially compared to the 2012 race in which Republicans do battle over the extent of their conservatism.

But the Democratic primary four years ago also featured two political heavyweights in Obama and Clinton, each of whom were poised to make history simply by virtue of their nomination. Obama would become the first African-American presidential nominee, and later, the nation’s first black president. Clinton would have been the first woman to top a ticket, and the first woman president if she were elected.

And Republicans can take solace in the fact that Obama is now their greatest unifier. While there might not be tremendous enthusiasm for either of the two major remaining Republican candidates, there’s a great deal of interest within the GOP about beating Obama.

A mid-February Gallup poll found that Republicans, by an 8-point margin, were more likely to say that they were enthusiastic about voting this fall compared to Democrats. And among certain key portions of Obama’s 2008 coalition, especially younger and nonwhite voters, enthusiasm was down.

But a mid-March poll, also by Gallup, found that enthusiasm for Romney and Santorum within the GOP is down from 2008; Republicans are motivated this time by voting against Obama.

And the numbers in the January NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggest that while Santorum and Romney might not generate tremendous enthusiasm, they’re at least acceptable. Seventy-five percent of Republican primary voters said they would be “comfortable” with Romney as the nominee, and 65 percent said the same for Santorum.

Source

[Kaeshar]

True, however the difference between the number of delegates was closer in 2008 (and Hillary was being stubborn) than it is right now (that could change at any point however) and they didn't have two others hogging the delegates. Edwards dropped out really early, remember? Which meant that they only had to compete for delegates with each other.

Also, Frothys reality is his own reality, lol.

And Gingrich and Paul aren't?

I was just saying that the situation now isn't really that comparable with the Democrat primary last time, but yes, Ron Paul has vowed to stay in until the convention and the only way Gingrich is going to drop out is if he loses funding. I was also going to say if Gingrich has several more major losses, he might drop out, but then again, he's had many major losses so far and a less determined (or less stubborn maybe) candidate would have dropped out by now.

[Farnhamia]

I wouldn't count the Republicans out yet. Remember we Democrats had a long drawn out Primary that nearly led to a Convention fight last time, and we came out triumphant. It wont be the primary itself, but who comes out and how that matters. If Frothy does like Clinton did and refuse to face reality as the Convention gets closer, then Romney will come out triumphant.

It doesn't matter if Romney wins the nomination. I expect him to win the nomination. It depends on how far to right he has to run to get it, and so far he's been running right as hard and as fast as he can. The entire GOP is stuck in that mode and they've been busy alienating independents and women and Hispanics and the unions like it was going out of style. Granted that the Democrats can always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but so far, I'm not worried.

[Goobergunchia]

Romney wins all 20 pledged delegates from Puerto Rico.

Delegate count update: Romney 465, Santorum 184, Gingrich 138, Paul 35.

The New York Times shows Romney 501, Santorum 253, Gingrich 136, Paul 50. Where did you get your delegate count?

I count it myself.

[Farnhamia]

The New York Times shows Romney 501, Santorum 253, Gingrich 136, Paul 50. Where did you get your delegate count?

I count it myself.

Not fair using Modly powers.

[Kaeshar]

The New York Times shows Romney 501, Santorum 253, Gingrich 136, Paul 50. Where did you get your delegate count?

I count it myself.

Any idea what the discrepancy is with the NYT one and CNN vs your own calculations? There isn't really much of a discrepancy with Gingrich though, heh.

Sorry for offtopic, but whats the pre-Jolt reference in your sig Goobergunchia?

[Goobergunchia]

Any idea what the discrepancy is with the NYT one and CNN vs your own calculations? There isn't really much of a discrepancy with Gingrich though, heh.

The New York Times (which actually uses Associated Press numbers) and CNN both project delegates from Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, and Washington based on the caucus returns in those states. However, the Presidential poll in those caucus states and the actual delegate selection process are separate. It's entirely possible that, for instance, a bunch of people voted for Romney in the poll and then left, allowing Santorum or Paul supporters to take a bunch of the county-level delegates. I personally consider it irresponsible to project those delegates until the district or state conventions roll around and we see who the national delegates actually are.

Since Gingrich didn't do well in any of the states I listed, the discrepancy for him is minimal.

Sorry for offtopic, but whats the pre-Jolt reference in your sig Goobergunchia?

The vast majority of my posts counted on the Jolt forums were actually made on the forums that this site had before the forums were transferred to Jolt in mid-2004.

[Free Soviets]

two things:
1) mittens' sweep of the colonies is totally solid.
2) i would like to reiterate my support for welcoming the 4 new states of puerto rico oeste, puerto rico central, puerto rico suroriental, and san juan into the union. come on guys, you' get to both freak out the racist republicans and hold a shit-ton of power in the senate.

seriously, unless things go weird in DC every delegate but one from the colonies is going mittens. the other guys do realize that delegates count, right?