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Republican Primary Megathread (poll now updated)

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Who Will Win the Republican nomination?

Newt Gingrich
67
7%
Ron Paul
277
31%
Mitt Romney
469
52%
Rick Santorum
90
10%
 
Total votes : 903

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Silex Lariat
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Founded: Feb 23, 2012
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Postby Silex Lariat » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:19 pm

Fools! With their machinations and mudslinging they have played right into the hands of the RON PAUL RELOVEUTION! The more chaos sown among the Republican frontrunners, the more delegates will defect when the time comes, and swarm to the ranks of the reloveutionaries who shall take back America and bring it into a glorious age of glorious glory! And gold! Also ending the Federal Reserve and... that other thing RON PAUL always says.

I'm actually a bit disappointed Santorum won't be the nominee. Mitt will say whatever he needs to say to get elected, which is generally boring and predictable stuff. Newt is a pompous windbag of the type we see plenty of in Congress. Paul has been repeating the same speech for thirty years. Santorum, though... he's a true wildcard. You have no idea what he's going to do next, and when he's going to open his mouth and say something absolutely pants-on-head retarded. For that reason alone I'd support a ticket with Santorum on it. Possibly Santorum/Bachmann but that would be too perfect for real life :<
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The Steel Magnolia
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Postby The Steel Magnolia » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:30 pm

Silex Lariat wrote:Fools! With their machinations and mudslinging they have played right into the hands of the RON PAUL RELOVEUTION! The more chaos sown among the Republican frontrunners, the more delegates will defect when the time comes, and swarm to the ranks of the reloveutionaries who shall take back America and bring it into a glorious age of glorious glory! And gold! Also ending the Federal Reserve and... that other thing RON PAUL always says.

I'm actually a bit disappointed Santorum won't be the nominee. Mitt will say whatever he needs to say to get elected, which is generally boring and predictable stuff. Newt is a pompous windbag of the type we see plenty of in Congress. Paul has been repeating the same speech for thirty years. Santorum, though... he's a true wildcard. You have no idea what he's going to do next, and when he's going to open his mouth and say something absolutely pants-on-head retarded. For that reason alone I'd support a ticket with Santorum on it. Possibly Santorum/Bachmann but that would be too perfect for real life :<


I don't know... Santorum/Gingrich... it has possibilities...

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Gauthier
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Postby Gauthier » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:14 pm

The Steel Magnolia wrote:
Silex Lariat wrote:Fools! With their machinations and mudslinging they have played right into the hands of the RON PAUL RELOVEUTION! The more chaos sown among the Republican frontrunners, the more delegates will defect when the time comes, and swarm to the ranks of the reloveutionaries who shall take back America and bring it into a glorious age of glorious glory! And gold! Also ending the Federal Reserve and... that other thing RON PAUL always says.

I'm actually a bit disappointed Santorum won't be the nominee. Mitt will say whatever he needs to say to get elected, which is generally boring and predictable stuff. Newt is a pompous windbag of the type we see plenty of in Congress. Paul has been repeating the same speech for thirty years. Santorum, though... he's a true wildcard. You have no idea what he's going to do next, and when he's going to open his mouth and say something absolutely pants-on-head retarded. For that reason alone I'd support a ticket with Santorum on it. Possibly Santorum/Bachmann but that would be too perfect for real life :<


I don't know... Santorum/Gingrich... it has possibilities...


We just need to come up an obscene term for "Gingrich".
Crimes committed by Muslims will be a pan-Islamic plot and proof of Islam's inherent evil. On the other hand crimes committed by non-Muslims will merely be the acts of loners who do not represent their belief system at all.
The probability of one's participation in homosexual acts is directly proportional to one's public disdain and disgust for homosexuals.
If a political figure makes an accusation of wrongdoing without evidence, odds are probable that the accuser or an associate thereof has in fact committed the very same act, possibly to a worse degree.
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Salandriagado
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Postby Salandriagado » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:19 pm

The Steel Magnolia wrote:
Silex Lariat wrote:Fools! With their machinations and mudslinging they have played right into the hands of the RON PAUL RELOVEUTION! The more chaos sown among the Republican frontrunners, the more delegates will defect when the time comes, and swarm to the ranks of the reloveutionaries who shall take back America and bring it into a glorious age of glorious glory! And gold! Also ending the Federal Reserve and... that other thing RON PAUL always says.

I'm actually a bit disappointed Santorum won't be the nominee. Mitt will say whatever he needs to say to get elected, which is generally boring and predictable stuff. Newt is a pompous windbag of the type we see plenty of in Congress. Paul has been repeating the same speech for thirty years. Santorum, though... he's a true wildcard. You have no idea what he's going to do next, and when he's going to open his mouth and say something absolutely pants-on-head retarded. For that reason alone I'd support a ticket with Santorum on it. Possibly Santorum/Bachmann but that would be too perfect for real life :<


I don't know... Santorum/Gingrich... it has possibilities...


Is it bad that I read that as "santorum over Gingrich"?
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Over 40% (including me), are, so I fixed the post for accuracy.

Vilatania wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Notice that the link is to the notes from a university course on probability. You clearly have nothing beyond the most absurdly simplistic understanding of the subject.
By choosing 1, you no longer have 0 probability of choosing 1. End of subject.

(read up the quote stack)

Deal. £3000 do?[/quote]

Of course.[/quote]

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Gauthier
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Postby Gauthier » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:24 pm

Salandriagado wrote:
The Steel Magnolia wrote:
I don't know... Santorum/Gingrich... it has possibilities...


Is it bad that I read that as "santorum over Gingrich"?


"Santorum on Gingrich." Everyone knows Newt's full of shit.
Crimes committed by Muslims will be a pan-Islamic plot and proof of Islam's inherent evil. On the other hand crimes committed by non-Muslims will merely be the acts of loners who do not represent their belief system at all.
The probability of one's participation in homosexual acts is directly proportional to one's public disdain and disgust for homosexuals.
If a political figure makes an accusation of wrongdoing without evidence, odds are probable that the accuser or an associate thereof has in fact committed the very same act, possibly to a worse degree.
Where is your God-Emperor now?

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Jocabia
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Postby Jocabia » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:36 pm

Gauthier wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Is it bad that I read that as "santorum over Gingrich"?


"Santorum on Gingrich." Everyone knows Newt's full of shit.

I've come to expect better from you. Santorum on Gingrich would mean he was covered in shit.

And, don't look surprised. We all know I'm pedantic.
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Kaeshar
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Postby Kaeshar » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:36 pm

Alien Space Bats wrote:I expect vote-rigging and delegate-stealing; of course, that cuts both ways. Remember that while Democrats habitually vote for the candidate they dislike the least, Republicans simply refuse to compromise and end up not voting for any candidate they can't support. If Romney cheats his way to a win, there's a good chance that the far right will simply stay home, believing that electing Mitt Romney is no better then re-electing Barack Obama. This was a factor for the GOP in 1996 and in 2008; it will be a factor in 2012, even if the race ends today.

Second, there's a good chance that Newt will fade from the equation from here on out. I expect him to try and fight for Louisiana and I expect him to try and fight for Texas, but past that point his relevance to the race will fade. He won't drop out, because he wants to keep his delegates as a bargaining chip in Tampa; but he isn't likely to bite as hard into Santorum's side from here on out.

I also think Mitt has committed a strategic blunder in saying publicly that he can't accept Santorum as his VP because Frothy isn't conservative enough on birth control and abortion. You have to wonder if there's some sort of gene in the Romney family tree that makes him say stupid things that can kill his campaign. But with that quote, not only has Mitt bought Rick Santorum's position on reproductive rights, he's actually committed himself to exceeding it.

Santorum will naturally air ads showing Romney saying that and then showing 90's Mitt speaking of how he supports a woman's right to choose, of how he supports Planned Parenthood, of how he and his wife raised money for Planned Parenthood, and essentially call him out as a flip-flopping liar. Indeed, Santorum has to do that if he wants to be viable in 2016 (and following the standard GOP succession rules, Frothy has essentially established himself as the heir apparent for 2016); he has to defend his core brand.

So where does that leave Mitt? He has no choice but to double down and move to Santorum's right on reproductive issues. He has to come out and say that 90's Mitt was before he saw the light, and that now he's hard-core pro-life and anti-contraception. He has to endorse a complete elimination of Title X money (because he's been attacking Santorum for supporting Title X); he has to say he's going to throw poor women under the bus when it comes to mammograms, etc. He has to endorse fetal personhood. He has to endorse mandatory waiting periods, "informed consent" ultrasounds, the works. All of this is going to alienate the GOP's "silent majority minority" of moderates and Republican-leaning independents - and it may just infuriate true conservatives (from the sheer flaming chutzpah of it all) enough to bring them out in droves for Santorum.

It was more than a stupid thing to say. It was a fucking bloody stupid thing to say.

I'm not at all discounting the possibility that Mitt will get 1144 before Tampa, or even the 1000 or so he needs to get to within striking distance for a deal. But given his weakness in the red States - which have a louder voice at the convention than the blue States (because that's how the delegate allocation system works; the Democratic system works the same way, but in reverse) - my point is that there's no reason why the Fab Four shouldn't all stay in the race and ride this thing all the way through to the convention.

And indeed, the longer this goes on, the greater the rewards for staying in, in so far as everybody's delegate count rises, and those delegates become ever more important as leverage the closer and closer we get to the Convention.


It would have been better to say 'I am not considering Santorum as a VP choice at this time." Neutral and leaves room for maneuvering.

Still, even if he is forced to change his message, he is a serial flip flopper, so will people believe him? Also his opponents will just call him out on flip flopping. So, he is stuck in a catch-22 here.

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Gauthier
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Postby Gauthier » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:46 pm

Kaeshar wrote:
Alien Space Bats wrote:I expect vote-rigging and delegate-stealing; of course, that cuts both ways. Remember that while Democrats habitually vote for the candidate they dislike the least, Republicans simply refuse to compromise and end up not voting for any candidate they can't support. If Romney cheats his way to a win, there's a good chance that the far right will simply stay home, believing that electing Mitt Romney is no better then re-electing Barack Obama. This was a factor for the GOP in 1996 and in 2008; it will be a factor in 2012, even if the race ends today.

Second, there's a good chance that Newt will fade from the equation from here on out. I expect him to try and fight for Louisiana and I expect him to try and fight for Texas, but past that point his relevance to the race will fade. He won't drop out, because he wants to keep his delegates as a bargaining chip in Tampa; but he isn't likely to bite as hard into Santorum's side from here on out.

I also think Mitt has committed a strategic blunder in saying publicly that he can't accept Santorum as his VP because Frothy isn't conservative enough on birth control and abortion. You have to wonder if there's some sort of gene in the Romney family tree that makes him say stupid things that can kill his campaign. But with that quote, not only has Mitt bought Rick Santorum's position on reproductive rights, he's actually committed himself to exceeding it.

Santorum will naturally air ads showing Romney saying that and then showing 90's Mitt speaking of how he supports a woman's right to choose, of how he supports Planned Parenthood, of how he and his wife raised money for Planned Parenthood, and essentially call him out as a flip-flopping liar. Indeed, Santorum has to do that if he wants to be viable in 2016 (and following the standard GOP succession rules, Frothy has essentially established himself as the heir apparent for 2016); he has to defend his core brand.

So where does that leave Mitt? He has no choice but to double down and move to Santorum's right on reproductive issues. He has to come out and say that 90's Mitt was before he saw the light, and that now he's hard-core pro-life and anti-contraception. He has to endorse a complete elimination of Title X money (because he's been attacking Santorum for supporting Title X); he has to say he's going to throw poor women under the bus when it comes to mammograms, etc. He has to endorse fetal personhood. He has to endorse mandatory waiting periods, "informed consent" ultrasounds, the works. All of this is going to alienate the GOP's "silent majority minority" of moderates and Republican-leaning independents - and it may just infuriate true conservatives (from the sheer flaming chutzpah of it all) enough to bring them out in droves for Santorum.

It was more than a stupid thing to say. It was a fucking bloody stupid thing to say.

I'm not at all discounting the possibility that Mitt will get 1144 before Tampa, or even the 1000 or so he needs to get to within striking distance for a deal. But given his weakness in the red States - which have a louder voice at the convention than the blue States (because that's how the delegate allocation system works; the Democratic system works the same way, but in reverse) - my point is that there's no reason why the Fab Four shouldn't all stay in the race and ride this thing all the way through to the convention.

And indeed, the longer this goes on, the greater the rewards for staying in, in so far as everybody's delegate count rises, and those delegates become ever more important as leverage the closer and closer we get to the Convention.


It would have been better to say 'I am not considering Santorum as a VP choice at this time." Neutral and leaves room for maneuvering.

Still, even if he is forced to change his message, he is a serial flip flopper, so will people believe him? Also his opponents will just call him out on flip flopping. So, he is stuck in a catch-22 here.


Maybe he can borrow a page from Daddy's playbook and claim he was brainwashed.
Crimes committed by Muslims will be a pan-Islamic plot and proof of Islam's inherent evil. On the other hand crimes committed by non-Muslims will merely be the acts of loners who do not represent their belief system at all.
The probability of one's participation in homosexual acts is directly proportional to one's public disdain and disgust for homosexuals.
If a political figure makes an accusation of wrongdoing without evidence, odds are probable that the accuser or an associate thereof has in fact committed the very same act, possibly to a worse degree.
Where is your God-Emperor now?

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Grave_n_idle
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Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Grave_n_idle » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:46 pm

Gauthier wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Is it bad that I read that as "santorum over Gingrich"?


"Santorum on Gingrich." Everyone knows Newt's full of shit.


I can see at least three different ways to interpret that, and all of them provide me with a weird combination of revulsion, perverse desire to see it realised, and revulsion.
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Alien Space Bats
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Founded: Sep 28, 2009
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Re: Republican Primary Megathread (poll now updated)

Postby Alien Space Bats » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:14 pm

Image

Just in time for summer!
"These states are just saying 'Yes, I used to beat my girlfriend, but I haven't since the restraining order, so we don't need it anymore.'" — Stephen Colbert, Comedian, on Shelby County v. Holder

"Do you see how policing blacks by the presumption of guilt and policing whites by the presumption of innocence is a self-reinforcing mechanism?" — Touré Neblett, MSNBC Commentator and Social Critic

"You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in."Songwriter Oscar Brown in 1963, foretelling the election of Donald J. Trump

President Donald J. Trump: Working Tirelessly to Make Russia Great Again

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New England and The Maritimes
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Postby New England and The Maritimes » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:19 pm

Alien Space Bats wrote:I expect vote-rigging and delegate-stealing; of course, that cuts both ways. Remember that while Democrats habitually vote for the candidate they dislike the least, Republicans simply refuse to compromise and end up not voting for any candidate they can't support. If Romney cheats his way to a win, there's a good chance that the far right will simply stay home, believing that electing Mitt Romney is no better then re-electing Barack Obama. This was a factor for the GOP in 1996 and in 2008; it will be a factor in 2012, even if the race ends today.

Second, there's a good chance that Newt will fade from the equation from here on out. I expect him to try and fight for Louisiana and I expect him to try and fight for Texas, but past that point his relevance to the race will fade. He won't drop out, because he wants to keep his delegates as a bargaining chip in Tampa; but he isn't likely to bite as hard into Santorum's side from here on out.

I also think Mitt has committed a strategic blunder in saying publicly that he can't accept Santorum as his VP because Frothy isn't conservative enough on birth control and abortion. You have to wonder if there's some sort of gene in the Romney family tree that makes him say stupid things that can kill his campaign. But with that quote, not only has Mitt bought Rick Santorum's position on reproductive rights, he's actually committed himself to exceeding it.

Santorum will naturally air ads showing Romney saying that and then showing 90's Mitt speaking of how he supports a woman's right to choose, of how he supports Planned Parenthood, of how he and his wife raised money for Planned Parenthood, and essentially call him out as a flip-flopping liar. Indeed, Santorum has to do that if he wants to be viable in 2016 (and following the standard GOP succession rules, Frothy has essentially established himself as the heir apparent for 2016); he has to defend his core brand.

So where does that leave Mitt? He has no choice but to double down and move to Santorum's right on reproductive issues. He has to come out and say that 90's Mitt was before he saw the light, and that now he's hard-core pro-life and anti-contraception. He has to endorse a complete elimination of Title X money (because he's been attacking Santorum for supporting Title X); he has to say he's going to throw poor women under the bus when it comes to mammograms, etc. He has to endorse fetal personhood. He has to endorse mandatory waiting periods, "informed consent" ultrasounds, the works. All of this is going to alienate the GOP's "silent majority minority" of moderates and Republican-leaning independents - and it may just infuriate true conservatives (from the sheer flaming chutzpah of it all) enough to bring them out in droves for Santorum.

It was more than a stupid thing to say. It was a fucking bloody stupid thing to say.

I'm not at all discounting the possibility that Mitt will get 1144 before Tampa, or even the 1000 or so he needs to get to within striking distance for a deal. But given his weakness in the red States - which have a louder voice at the convention than the blue States (because that's how the delegate allocation system works; the Democratic system works the same way, but in reverse) - my point is that there's no reason why the Fab Four shouldn't all stay in the race and ride this thing all the way through to the convention.

And indeed, the longer this goes on, the greater the rewards for staying in, in so far as everybody's delegate count rises, and those delegates become ever more important as leverage the closer and closer we get to the Convention.


:palm:

Mitt Romney is the most incompetent politician I have ever seen in action. He starts with the potential to bring "moderates"(read: right-wing people who aren't insane,) to the polls, and then tries to completely redesign himself as a backwoods psychotic cultural fascist mid-campaign because he saw that his largest opponent managed to exploit the niche market for that brand of crazy. What the fuck is wrong with this idiot?
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Gauthier
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Postby Gauthier » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:24 pm

New England and The Maritimes wrote:Mitt Romney is the most incompetent politician I have ever seen in action. He starts with the potential to bring "moderates"(read: right-wing people who aren't insane,) to the polls, and then tries to completely redesign himself as a backwoods psychotic cultural fascist mid-campaign because he saw that his largest opponent managed to exploit the niche market for that brand of crazy. What the fuck is wrong with this idiot?


I said it before. Willard Mitt Romney is a Political Munchkin. He's so desperate to win he's doing anything and everything he can think of to try and give himself the most plusses.
Crimes committed by Muslims will be a pan-Islamic plot and proof of Islam's inherent evil. On the other hand crimes committed by non-Muslims will merely be the acts of loners who do not represent their belief system at all.
The probability of one's participation in homosexual acts is directly proportional to one's public disdain and disgust for homosexuals.
If a political figure makes an accusation of wrongdoing without evidence, odds are probable that the accuser or an associate thereof has in fact committed the very same act, possibly to a worse degree.
Where is your God-Emperor now?

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Ashmoria
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Postby Ashmoria » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:28 pm

Alien Space Bats wrote:I love Nerdland!

:hug:

EDIT: I tried to explain why "Nerdland" was such a cute term to my Illinois-born wife (Louisiana = Southland, Perry being a professor in PoliSci at Tulane). Then I just gave up...


i love that she calls it nerdland. the pretty litlle professor lady is a freaking NERD.

as we all are.
whatever

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Grave_n_idle
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Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Grave_n_idle » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:29 pm

Ashmoria wrote:
Alien Space Bats wrote:I love Nerdland!

:hug:

EDIT: I tried to explain why "Nerdland" was such a cute term to my Illinois-born wife (Louisiana = Southland, Perry being a professor in PoliSci at Tulane). Then I just gave up...


i love that she calls it nerdland. the pretty litlle professor lady is a freaking NERD.

as we all are.


"So say we all", surely?
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Alien Space Bats
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Ex-Nation

Re: Republican Primary Megathread (poll now updated)

Postby Alien Space Bats » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:44 pm

New England and The Maritimes wrote:What the fuck is wrong with this idiot?

Ponder the last word in that sentence, and you might see the light. ;)
Last edited by Alien Space Bats on Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"These states are just saying 'Yes, I used to beat my girlfriend, but I haven't since the restraining order, so we don't need it anymore.'" — Stephen Colbert, Comedian, on Shelby County v. Holder

"Do you see how policing blacks by the presumption of guilt and policing whites by the presumption of innocence is a self-reinforcing mechanism?" — Touré Neblett, MSNBC Commentator and Social Critic

"You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in."Songwriter Oscar Brown in 1963, foretelling the election of Donald J. Trump

President Donald J. Trump: Working Tirelessly to Make Russia Great Again

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The Steel Magnolia
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Ex-Nation

Postby The Steel Magnolia » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:49 pm

Alien Space Bats wrote:
New England and The Maritimes wrote:What the fuck is wrong with this idiot?

Ponder the last word in that sentence, and you might see the light. ;)


Hilariously, there was a Tea Party ad at the bottom of the page when I read that.

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Jari Head
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Ex-Nation

Postby Jari Head » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:55 pm

Salandriagado wrote:
The Steel Magnolia wrote:
I don't know... Santorum/Gingrich... it has possibilities...


Is it bad that I read that as "santorum over Gingrich"?

One of Newt's gang floated that idea, Frothy as Pres and Newt as veep
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Wikkiwallana
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Postby Wikkiwallana » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:21 pm

Gauthier wrote:
The Steel Magnolia wrote:
I don't know... Santorum/Gingrich... it has possibilities...


We just need to come up an obscene term for "Gingrich".

It's going to be pretty hard to find something roughly as vile as he is.
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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:22 pm

Wikkiwallana wrote:
Gauthier wrote:
We just need to come up an obscene term for "Gingrich".

It's going to be pretty hard to find something roughly as vile as he is.

I've always liked "serial adulterer."
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Jocabia
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Postby Jocabia » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:28 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Wikkiwallana wrote:It's going to be pretty hard to find something roughly as vile as he is.

I've always liked "serial adulterer."

I'm good with that as long as you figure out a way to make it a verb.

Dude, seriously, you didn't gingrich, did you?
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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:30 pm

Jocabia wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:I've always liked "serial adulterer."

I'm good with that as long as you figure out a way to make it a verb.

Dude, seriously, you didn't gingrich, did you?

"Santorum" isn't a verb, though.
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Jocabia
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Founded: Mar 25, 2004
Ex-Nation

Postby Jocabia » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:32 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Jocabia wrote:I'm good with that as long as you figure out a way to make it a verb.

Dude, seriously, you didn't gingrich, did you?

"Santorum" isn't a verb, though.

Yes, but Santorum is more passive. Gingrich is a cock on purpose.
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New England and The Maritimes
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Founded: Aug 13, 2011
Ex-Nation

Postby New England and The Maritimes » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:32 pm

Jocabia wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:I've always liked "serial adulterer."

I'm good with that as long as you figure out a way to make it a verb.

Dude, seriously, you didn't gingrich, did you?


Better yet "Dude, she got diagnosed with cancer!" "So?" "So I gingriched her, that's what!"
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The UK in Exile
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Founded: Jul 27, 2006
Ex-Nation

Postby The UK in Exile » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:35 pm

gingrinch: a moral vaccum so dense the truth can never escape it.
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Farnhamia
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Founded: Jun 20, 2006
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Farnhamia » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:42 pm

The UK in Exile wrote:gingrinch: a moral vaccum so dense the truth can never escape it.

I like it but it doesn't quite ring true. Vacuums are empty, not dense.
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