Republican Primary Megathread (poll now updated)

[Kazomal]

It's fairly telling how 2012's version of Barry Goldwater is the only moderate in the field. I'm still hoping for the GOP to balkanize, maybe it'll happen over this election.

What I don't understand is why pundits and just about everyone else is touting Romney as the "electability" candidate. I think Obama's people are salivating over Romney being a candidate, the man has a extensive record of flip flopping, the personality of a used car salesman, and used to manage a company that raided pension funds and drove businesses into the ground for profit. How the hell does anyone see him having a chance at winning?

He has the money, connections, staff, and experience to run for president, moreso than the other candidates. Also, he kinda had to step aside when the party went with McCain last time, so the party kinda owes him, and he intended to collect. Also, he keeps winning primaries, despite his obvious drawbacks with the base. And because he has remained the "front runner" in the media and the public consciousness since the beginning, while the rest of the field comes off looking like a sad carousel of fools, liars, and biggots, joke candidates who are "front runner" of the week then drop off like flies. Remember Christie? Media decided that he was too fat to be president, and played tuba music while walked. Makes them all look bad. Romney stays sort of above it.

[The United Good]

Stephen Colbert to run in South Carolina!!!

[Ashmoria]

Stephen Colbert to run in South Carolina!!!

he cant run in south carolina without quitting his job.

he is just polling better than several of the real candidates

[The Rich Port]

Stephen Colbert to run in South Carolina!!!

he cant run in south carolina without quitting his job.

he is just polling better than several of the real candidates

He did say he was running on his show, or at least he asked the audience and they all said "OH GOD YES PLEASE RUN" and then said he was going to think about it.

I don't know what would be better: that he runs out of character or in character, or that in public he is IC but he runs the country OOC.

I assume his Press Secretary will be Ham Rove.

[Ashmoria]

he cant run in south carolina without quitting his job.

he is just polling better than several of the real candidates

He did say he was running on his show, or at least he asked the audience and they all said "OH GOD YES PLEASE RUN" and then said he was going to think about it.

I don't know what would be better: that he runs out of character or in character, or that in public he is IC but he runs the country OOC.

I assume his Press Secretary will be Ham Rove.

lol i love that guy!

he got into trouble in '08 for making moves to get on the ballot in south carolina. thats why hes not doing it this year but instead is running a super pac.

[The Rich Port]

He did say he was running on his show, or at least he asked the audience and they all said "OH GOD YES PLEASE RUN" and then said he was going to think about it.

I don't know what would be better: that he runs out of character or in character, or that in public he is IC but he runs the country OOC.

I assume his Press Secretary will be Ham Rove.

lol i love that guy!

he got into trouble in '08 for making moves to get on the ballot in south carolina. thats why hes not doing it this year but instead is running a super pac.

While I didn't know that he'd tried before, I don't think that's why he created the super pac.

I think he created the super pac because he wanted to bring to light what pacs, super pacs, and secret pacs were.

Because I sure as hell didn't know about them AT ALL.

[Ashmoria]

lol i love that guy!

he got into trouble in '08 for making moves to get on the ballot in south carolina. thats why hes not doing it this year but instead is running a super pac.

While I didn't know that he'd tried before, I don't think that's why he created the super pac.

I think he created the super pac because he wanted to bring to light what pacs, super pacs, and secret pacs were.

Because I sure as hell didn't know about them AT ALL.

he wanted to do something and the superpac seemed the best. im not all that interested in it but when he has his lawyer on and asks him "whats the difference between this and money laundering" and the lawyer answers "not too much"... its brilliant.

[New Glennland]

They should weed out the weaklings in each faction and narrow it down to Romney, Santorum and Paul already.

[Farnhamia]

They should weed out the weaklings in each faction and narrow it down to Romney, Santorum and Paul already.

What part of the primary process are you having trouble with?

[Tahar Joblis]

I wouldn't call Huntsman insane. But he's not even being voted, so meh.
This is also an outsider's perspective.

Huntsman isn't on the leaderboard for New Hampshire according to the polls conducted in New Hampshire, and his shot at being taken seriously requires a very good showing in New Hampshire.

IMO, he's not a serious contender.

My prediction:

He will drop out after New Hampshire (11th). Actually, let's continue the predictions. Mark my words, and make fun of me if I get this wrong:

2.) After South Carolina (21st), either Perry or Santorum will drop out.

3.) If Gingrich does well in South Carolina and neither of them do - he led in polls in the state in December - both of them will drop out, leaving the field with Gingrich, Romney, and Paul.

3.)If Gingrich wins Florida, he will be the leading not-Romney in the running, and the others will drop out at that point. If Gingrich does not win Florida, I expect that he will drop out, unless both Perry or Santorum have dropped out already.

4.) To put together the general picture, after Florida, we will have Romney, not-Romney, and Paul. (Based on 2008, Ron Paul will never drop out, regardless of his performance.)

5.) The race will have a clear winner no later than Super Tuesday, although Paul will probably still be officially running.

K. So, factual update:

1.) I predicted Huntsman would drop out after New Hampshire. He did reasonably well in NH and seems to be intending to continue his run. I'm not sure why. Maybe he's holding out for a VP ticket offer? Given he's reportedly playing down expectations for South Carolina, maybe he's just trying to splinter the not-Romney vote further?

2-3.) Gingrich is currently the leading not-Romney in polls of SC and Florida. These predictions will be settled next.

[The Black Forrest]

Huntsman isn't on the leaderboard for New Hampshire according to the polls conducted in New Hampshire, and his shot at being taken seriously requires a very good showing in New Hampshire.

IMO, he's not a serious contender.

My prediction:

He will drop out after New Hampshire (11th). Actually, let's continue the predictions. Mark my words, and make fun of me if I get this wrong:

2.) After South Carolina (21st), either Perry or Santorum will drop out.

3.) If Gingrich does well in South Carolina and neither of them do - he led in polls in the state in December - both of them will drop out, leaving the field with Gingrich, Romney, and Paul.

3.)If Gingrich wins Florida, he will be the leading not-Romney in the running, and the others will drop out at that point. If Gingrich does not win Florida, I expect that he will drop out, unless both Perry or Santorum have dropped out already.

4.) To put together the general picture, after Florida, we will have Romney, not-Romney, and Paul. (Based on 2008, Ron Paul will never drop out, regardless of his performance.)

5.) The race will have a clear winner no later than Super Tuesday, although Paul will probably still be officially running.

K. So, factual update:

1.) I predicted Huntsman would drop out after New Hampshire. He did reasonably well in NH and seems to be intending to continue his run. I'm not sure why. Maybe he's holding out for a VP ticket offer? Given he's reportedly playing down expectations for South Carolina, maybe he's just trying to splinter the not-Romney vote further?

2-3.) Gingrich is currently the leading not-Romney in polls of SC and Florida. These predictions will be settled next.

Possibly.

I think he got a boost by the timing of that crap about him not adopting 'merican children!

Also, the he is not a REAL republican because he worked for Obama. The serve America first comments does well there......

[Cannot think of a name]

You know what just occurred to me...remember how in 2010 during the tea party rallies and shit people used pictures of Obama done up like the Joker from The Dark Knight? Well, Romney, should he get the nomination, will be running in a campaign during a year when The Dark Knight Rises will have a villain in it named Bane, which sounds just like a company Mr. Romney worked at and is getting harangued about...meaning that Nolan's Batman movie villain is set to play a role in two elections in a row...

[Augustus Este]

he cant run in south carolina without quitting his job.

he is just polling better than several of the real candidates

He did say he was running on his show, or at least he asked the audience and they all said "OH GOD YES PLEASE RUN" and then said he was going to think about it.

I don't know what would be better: that he runs out of character or in character, or that in public he is IC but he runs the country OOC.

I assume his Press Secretary will be Ham Rove.

I don't think he legally can run, due to his super-pac.

[Farnhamia]

Republicans asked to bash Obama, not each other.

NEW ORLEANS — Republican National Committee leaders, meeting here on Thursday amid sharpening divisions in the race for the party’s presidential nomination, implored fellow Republicans from around the country to unite around a message aimed at President Obama, not one another.

But the officials declined to intervene in any formal way to truncate what could be an extended, combative nominating contest, and to limit the potential damage to Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, who is leading in the primaries.

[Ethel mermania]

Republicans asked to bash Obama, not each other.

NEW ORLEANS — Republican National Committee leaders, meeting here on Thursday amid sharpening divisions in the race for the party’s presidential nomination, implored fellow Republicans from around the country to unite around a message aimed at President Obama, not one another.

But the officials declined to intervene in any formal way to truncate what could be an extended, combative nominating contest, and to limit the potential damage to Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, who is leading in the primaries.

because to the party obama is the "enemy" not the other republicans, (aside from maybe paul). Which if you think about it, is how it should be

to your second point; They can not end the primaries might as well just go back to the back rooms, and completely disenfranchise the party members.

(full disclosure: I will vote for obama before i vote for santorum, newt, or paul)


edit: two does not equal to

[Farnhamia]

Republicans asked to bash Obama, not each other.

because to the party obama is the "enemy" not the other republicans, (aside from maybe paul). Which if you think about it, is how it should be

to your second point; They can not end the primaries might as well just go back to the back rooms, and completely disenfranchise the party members.

(full disclosure: I will vote for obama before i vote for santorum, newt, or paul)


edit: two does not equal to

That's as may be, but PAC money is keeping the Not Romneys going and they're not letting up on old Mitt.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/us/politics/candidates-go-after-romney-in-south-carolina.html?ref=politics
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/us/politics/pacs-aid-allows-mitt-romneys-rivals-to-extend-race.html?ref=politics

I guess that after so many years of following Reagan's Law ("Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican"), they've broken loose and are ravaging the countryside.

[Ethel mermania]

because to the party obama is the "enemy" not the other republicans, (aside from maybe paul). Which if you think about it, is how it should be

to your second point; They can not end the primaries might as well just go back to the back rooms, and completely disenfranchise the party members.

(full disclosure: I will vote for obama before i vote for santorum, newt, or paul)


edit: two does not equal to

That's as may be, but PAC money is keeping the Not Romneys going and they're not letting up on old Mitt.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/us/politics/candidates-go-after-romney-in-south-carolina.html?ref=politics
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/us/politics/pacs-aid-allows-mitt-romneys-rivals-to-extend-race.html?ref=politics

I guess that after so many years of following Reagan's Law ("Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican"), they've broken loose and are ravaging the countryside.

campaign finance is now a topic that is over my head. If I understand the law properly a PAC can say Mr. XYZ is a pig who is lower than shit, but a pac can not say Mrs. ABC is a swell person, and we think she would make a neat president.

to your second point I think that happened in 2000 bush waged a particularly nasty campaign against mccain. come to think of it, in south carolina.

edit: two particularly's in once sentence

[Farnhamia]

That's as may be, but PAC money is keeping the Not Romneys going and they're not letting up on old Mitt.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/us/politics/candidates-go-after-romney-in-south-carolina.html?ref=politics
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/us/politics/pacs-aid-allows-mitt-romneys-rivals-to-extend-race.html?ref=politics

I guess that after so many years of following Reagan's Law ("Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican"), they've broken loose and are ravaging the countryside.

campaign finance is now a topic that is over my head. If I understand the law properly a PAC can say Mr. XYZ is a pig who is lower than shit, but a pac can not say Mrs. ABC is a swell person, and we think she would make a neat president.

to your second point I think that happened in 2000 bush waged a particularly nasty campaign against mccain. come to think of it, in south carolina.

edit: two particularly's in once sentence

The attacks on McCain in 2000 were a whispering campaign, they weren't virulent attack ads like we're seeing now. And yeah, I don't get campaign regulations now, either. We may as well not have any. I do think all the candidates should appear at least once in a toga candida, however. It was traditional in the Roman Republic, which the US is the exact reincarnation of, you know.

[Tahar Joblis]

because to the party obama is the "enemy" not the other republicans, (aside from maybe paul). Which if you think about it, is how it should be

to your second point; They can not end the primaries might as well just go back to the back rooms, and completely disenfranchise the party members.

(full disclosure: I will vote for obama before i vote for santorum, newt, or paul)


edit: two does not equal to

That's as may be, but PAC money is keeping the Not Romneys going and they're not letting up on old Mitt.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/12/us/politics/candidates-go-after-romney-in-south-carolina.html?ref=politics
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/us/politics/pacs-aid-allows-mitt-romneys-rivals-to-extend-race.html?ref=politics

I guess that after so many years of following Reagan's Law ("Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican"), they've broken loose and are ravaging the countryside.

Republicans have been cutthroat for some time.

Actually, Reagan launched himself onto the national stage to challenge a sitting Republican president in the primary in 1976. He nearly succeeded in the nomination - about a year after he began his public assault on President Ford (summer of 1975). To quote an L.A. Times article reviewing a book:
To Ford's "dying day" (which was last Dec. 23), he "blamed Reagan for his 1976 loss to Jimmy Carter," DeFrank writes. It was bad enough that Reagan launched a bid to deny him the Republican presidential nomination -- an effort he pursued all the way to the national convention. But even worse, after Ford prevailed, Reagan (in Ford's view) barely went through the motions of helping the GOP ticket in the general election.

For Ford, the consummate party man, that was unpardonable.

"Reagan's law," my foot. Or perhaps I should refer to my posterior in the vernacular possessive. Like many parts of the Reagan mythos, the idea that Reagan took the high road of party loyalty above individual politicking is fiction.

[Wikkiwallana]

campaign finance is now a topic that is over my head. If I understand the law properly a PAC can say Mr. XYZ is a pig who is lower than shit, but a pac can not say Mrs. ABC is a swell person, and we think she would make a neat president.

to your second point I think that happened in 2000 bush waged a particularly nasty campaign against mccain. come to think of it, in south carolina.

edit: two particularly's in once sentence

The attacks on McCain in 2000 were a whispering campaign, they weren't virulent attack ads like we're seeing now. And yeah, I don't get campaign regulations now, either. We may as well not have any. I do think all the candidates should appear at least once in a toga candida, however. It was traditional in the Roman Republic, which the US is the exact reincarnation of, you know.

I've wondered about those for years now. It seems like the amount of chalk necessary to make it shiny would also make it really, really stiff and uncomfortable.

[The Black Forrest]

campaign finance is now a topic that is over my head. If I understand the law properly a PAC can say Mr. XYZ is a pig who is lower than shit, but a pac can not say Mrs. ABC is a swell person, and we think she would make a neat president.

to your second point I think that happened in 2000 bush waged a particularly nasty campaign against mccain. come to think of it, in south carolina.

edit: two particularly's in once sentence

The attacks on McCain in 2000 were a whispering campaign, they weren't virulent attack ads like we're seeing now. And yeah, I don't get campaign regulations now, either. We may as well not have any. I do think all the candidates should appear at least once in a toga candida, however. It was traditional in the Roman Republic, which the US is the exact reincarnation of, you know.

There was also a "protection" of him as well.

RollingStone wrote this big article attacking all the legends of him and really painted him in a really bad way. Nobody would attack him on the stuff they printed.

His biggest fear was being remembered as the fuckup son and grandson of famous admirals.

[Wolfmanne]

If I was American, then I'd vote for Rommey. He is the most sane of everyone I've seen considering he voted for near-Universal Health Care in Massachusetts and is the least likely to piss off Cameron, Sarkozy and Merkel.

I pretty much support the one who wins New Hampshire since they are the only ones with sanity. And yes, I'm British.

[Grave_n_idle]

If I was American, then I'd vote for Rommey. He is the least sane of everyone I've seen considering he once voted for near-Universal Health Care and is the least likely to piss off Cameron, Sarkozy and Merkel.

Doesn't make sense to me.... how is supporting universal healthcare least sane?

[Wolfmanne]

If I was American, then I'd vote for Rommey. He is the least sane of everyone I've seen considering he once voted for near-Universal Health Care and is the least likely to piss off Cameron, Sarkozy and Merkel.

Doesn't make sense to me.... how is supporting universal healthcare least sane?

Typo. I meant most sane.

[Odins Scandinavia]

Mod Edit: This has now been designated as the Iowa (Which you've really outta try) Caucuses Megathread. Please bring all Trouble (with a capital T that rhymes with P, that stands for politics) here. -NERV

The 2012 Republican Iowa Caucuses are on January 3rd. Many are wondering who will win the first caucus of the election. Who is your guess?

slightly off topic, but several of the candidates you have listed dropped out.