Republican Primary Megathread (poll now updated)

[Farnhamia]

Sometimes I do love politics ...

By MICHAEL D. SHEAR
Published: March 14, 2012

Having fizzled once again in the South, Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign is testing one of the enduring tenets of the American political system: winning doesn’t always matter.

After victories by Rick Santorum in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, the campaigns were focusing on the next set of contests — Puerto Rico, Missouri and Illinois — in what promises to be a grinding effort to woo Republican voters for months to come.

But despite the millions of dollars that Mr. Romney and his allies continue to spend to try to emerge victorious in those contests, his campaign now increasingly argues that the outcomes are not the only things that matter. Their premise: Mr. Romney can — and will — win even while losing.

“Tuesday’s results actually increased Governor Romney’s delegate lead, while his opponents only moved closer to their date of mathematical elimination,” Rich Beeson, the campaign’s political director, argued in a strategy memorandum on Wednesday.

[Ashmoria]

Sometimes I do love politics ...

By MICHAEL D. SHEAR
Published: March 14, 2012

Having fizzled once again in the South, Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign is testing one of the enduring tenets of the American political system: winning doesn’t always matter.

After victories by Rick Santorum in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, the campaigns were focusing on the next set of contests — Puerto Rico, Missouri and Illinois — in what promises to be a grinding effort to woo Republican voters for months to come.

But despite the millions of dollars that Mr. Romney and his allies continue to spend to try to emerge victorious in those contests, his campaign now increasingly argues that the outcomes are not the only things that matter. Their premise: Mr. Romney can — and will — win even while losing.

“Tuesday’s results actually increased Governor Romney’s delegate lead, while his opponents only moved closer to their date of mathematical elimination,” Rich Beeson, the campaign’s political director, argued in a strategy memorandum on Wednesday.

if the winner only gets 35% of the vote in a proportional race did he really win?

i seems best to wait on getting excited about winning until we get to the winner take all states.

and the convention.

[Alien Space Bats]

if the winner only gets 35% of the vote in a proportional race did he really win?

i seems best to wait on getting excited about winning until we get to the winner take all states.

and the convention.

Romney's problem is that he's on track to win about 40% of all the delegates (900-950) - which would be more than anybody else - but he needs one more than 50% (1144, to be exact). If he doesn't get 1144, he'll have to make a deal with someone to clinch; if he can't, then starting with the 2nd ballot he'll begin to bleed support, opening the door to someone else making a deal in his stead.

That's why "mathematical elimination" is such a lame argument. No one is "mathematically eliminated" until there's a nominee. The strategy of Romney's adversaries is to keep him from getting to 1144 and then taking their chances at Tampa in a free-for-all convention. In that sense, there's no reason for any of them to quit: They may have no way of getting to 1144, but if nobody gets to that total, then every delegate is leverage to extract from Romney something they want in return (such as Newt wanting to be, say, Secretary of State if he can't be VP, for example...).

<lets the horrific idea of Secretary of State Gingrich sink in>

That would be kind of like declaring war on the entire planet, wouldn't it?

[Ashmoria]

if the winner only gets 35% of the vote in a proportional race did he really win?

i seems best to wait on getting excited about winning until we get to the winner take all states.

and the convention.

Romney's problem is that he's on track to win about 40% of all the delegates (900-950) - which would be more than anybody else - but he needs one more than 50% (1144, to be exact). If he doesn't get 1144, he'll have to make a deal with someone to clinch; if he can't, then starting with the 2nd ballot he'll begin to bleed support, opening the door to someone else making a deal in his stead.

That's why "mathematical elimination" is such a lame argument. No one is "mathematically eliminated" until there's a nominee. The strategy of Romney's adversaries is to keep him from getting to 1144 and then taking their chances at Tampa in a free-for-all convention. In that sense, there's no reason for any of them to quit: They may have no way of getting to 1144, but if nobody gets to that total, then every delegate is leverage to extract from Romney something they want in return (such as Newt wanting to be, say, Secretary of State if he can't be VP, for example...).

<lets the horrific idea of Secretary of State Gingrich sink in>

That would be kind of like declaring war on the entire planet, wouldn't it?

melissa harris-perry did that fun delegates-as-jelly-bean bit on her show last? weekend. it showed how unlikely it is for romney to get 50% of the delegates.

http://video.app.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&vid ... :permalink:

[Alien Space Bats]

I love Nerdland!



EDIT: I tried to explain why "Nerdland" was such a cute term to my Illinois-born wife (Louisiana = Southland, Perry being a professor in PoliSci at Tulane). Then I just gave up...

[Jocabia]

if the winner only gets 35% of the vote in a proportional race did he really win?

i seems best to wait on getting excited about winning until we get to the winner take all states.

and the convention.

Romney's problem is that he's on track to win about 40% of all the delegates (900-950) - which would be more than anybody else - but he needs one more than 50% (1144, to be exact). If he doesn't get 1144, he'll have to make a deal with someone to clinch; if he can't, then starting with the 2nd ballot he'll begin to bleed support, opening the door to someone else making a deal in his stead.

That's why "mathematical elimination" is such a lame argument. No one is "mathematically eliminated" until there's a nominee. The strategy of Romney's adversaries is to keep him from getting to 1144 and then taking their chances at Tampa in a free-for-all convention. In that sense, there's no reason for any of them to quit: They may have no way of getting to 1144, but if nobody gets to that total, then every delegate is leverage to extract from Romney something they want in return (such as Newt wanting to be, say, Secretary of State if he can't be VP, for example...).

<lets the horrific idea of Secretary of State Gingrich sink in>

That would be kind of like declaring war on the entire planet, wouldn't it?

Mitt has 498 delegates. He'll get the full delegate load from Utah without question. He'll be at slightly less than halfway with more than 1300 delegates on the table. He's going to take DC (Santorum isn't even on the ballot). That's winner take all for another 19. He's very likely to also take CT, which will give him another 28. He'll take DE for 17. That puts him at nearly 600. After that, he doesn't even have to do that well to win the enough delegates to take it outright, and once he's stacked enough to get close, the unpledged delegates will start to congeal around him to end the contest. It's possible for him not to make it, but given the number of winner take all states and the way Gingrich and Santorum are splitting much of the same electoral group, there is very little chance that outside of heavy duty southern states they can pull off a victory that slows Romney down enough. Last night was the first time they had a primary where Romney came in third (versus a caucus, where the far right carries a bit more weight). In most states, Gingrich isn't even pulling enough of the vote to get delegates. It's falling down near Paul, with the difference being that the percentage Gingrich gets is mostly coming right out of Santorum's pocket. If the trends hold, Romney tends to improve his position in a particular state as the contest gets closer (but underperforms the final polling). Given that, Romney's looking about 70% of the delegates from CA alone. He's positioned to crush in NY, another big delegate state.

And people can say whatever they want to say, even if Romney didn't clinch the nomination, and he will, if he goes into the convention with 1100 delegates and no one else even close, there is no chance in hell they're going to override the popular vote and give it to someone else. None. And the closer he gets to a number that is unequivocable, the more likely it is that people will start to vote for Romney just to end this thing and make sure the GOP doesn't have a brokered convention when there are no brokers.

[Grave_n_idle]

Romney's problem is that he's on track to win about 40% of all the delegates (900-950) - which would be more than anybody else - but he needs one more than 50% (1144, to be exact). If he doesn't get 1144, he'll have to make a deal with someone to clinch; if he can't, then starting with the 2nd ballot he'll begin to bleed support, opening the door to someone else making a deal in his stead.

That's why "mathematical elimination" is such a lame argument. No one is "mathematically eliminated" until there's a nominee. The strategy of Romney's adversaries is to keep him from getting to 1144 and then taking their chances at Tampa in a free-for-all convention. In that sense, there's no reason for any of them to quit: They may have no way of getting to 1144, but if nobody gets to that total, then every delegate is leverage to extract from Romney something they want in return (such as Newt wanting to be, say, Secretary of State if he can't be VP, for example...).

<lets the horrific idea of Secretary of State Gingrich sink in>

That would be kind of like declaring war on the entire planet, wouldn't it?

Mitt has 498 delegates. He'll get the full delegate load from Utah without question. He'll be at slightly less than halfway with more than 1300 delegates on the table. He's going to take DC (Santorum isn't even on the ballot). That's winner take all for another 19. He's very likely to also take CT, which will give him another 28. He'll take DE for 17. That puts him at nearly 600. After that, he doesn't even have to do that well to win the enough delegates to take it outright, and once he's stacked enough to get close, the unpledged delegates will start to congeal around him to end the contest. It's possible for him not to make it, but given the number of winner take all states and the way Gingrich and Santorum are splitting much of the same electoral group, there is very little chance that outside of heavy duty southern states they can pull off a victory that slows Romney down enough. Last night was the first time they had a primary where Romney came in third (versus a caucus, where the far right carries a bit more weight). In most states, Gingrich isn't even pulling enough of the vote to get delegates. It's falling down near Paul, with the difference being that the percentage Gingrich gets is mostly coming right out of Santorum's pocket. If the trends hold, Romney tends to improve his position in a particular state as the contest gets closer (but underperforms the final polling). Given that, Romney's looking about 70% of the delegates from CA alone. He's positioned to crush in NY, another big delegate state.

And people can say whatever they want to say, even if Romney didn't clinch the nomination, and he will, if he goes into the convention with 1100 delegates and no one else even close, there is no chance in hell they're going to override the popular vote and give it to someone else. None. And the closer he gets to a number that is unequivocable, the more likely it is that people will start to vote for Romney just to end this thing and make sure the GOP doesn't have a brokered convention when there are no brokers.

I was listening to Neal Boortz in the car today, and - in between talking about how Democrats want to literally destroy America, and how much anyone who would even consider voting for them must hate America... I was rather surprised to hear Neal Boortz say that Santorum was doing more harm than good to the Republican dog-and-pony show.

Now, admittedly, Neal Boortz wasn't actually attacking Santorum's platform - in fact, he basically signed on right alongside him about the evils of contraception and the lack of excuses for abortion, ever - but even Neal Boortz thinks Santorum needs to shut the fuck up before he scares away every possible independent voter.

Republicans need to shut this crap down, stop trying to out-extreme one another, and start in on a grown-up political race.

[Farnhamia]

Mitt has 498 delegates. He'll get the full delegate load from Utah without question. He'll be at slightly less than halfway with more than 1300 delegates on the table. He's going to take DC (Santorum isn't even on the ballot). That's winner take all for another 19. He's very likely to also take CT, which will give him another 28. He'll take DE for 17. That puts him at nearly 600. After that, he doesn't even have to do that well to win the enough delegates to take it outright, and once he's stacked enough to get close, the unpledged delegates will start to congeal around him to end the contest. It's possible for him not to make it, but given the number of winner take all states and the way Gingrich and Santorum are splitting much of the same electoral group, there is very little chance that outside of heavy duty southern states they can pull off a victory that slows Romney down enough. Last night was the first time they had a primary where Romney came in third (versus a caucus, where the far right carries a bit more weight). In most states, Gingrich isn't even pulling enough of the vote to get delegates. It's falling down near Paul, with the difference being that the percentage Gingrich gets is mostly coming right out of Santorum's pocket. If the trends hold, Romney tends to improve his position in a particular state as the contest gets closer (but underperforms the final polling). Given that, Romney's looking about 70% of the delegates from CA alone. He's positioned to crush in NY, another big delegate state.

And people can say whatever they want to say, even if Romney didn't clinch the nomination, and he will, if he goes into the convention with 1100 delegates and no one else even close, there is no chance in hell they're going to override the popular vote and give it to someone else. None. And the closer he gets to a number that is unequivocable, the more likely it is that people will start to vote for Romney just to end this thing and make sure the GOP doesn't have a brokered convention when there are no brokers.

I was listening to Neal Boortz in the car today, and - in between talking about how Democrats want to literally destroy America, and how much anyone who would even consider voting for them must hate America... I was rather surprised to hear Neal Boortz say that Santorum was doing more harm than good to the Republican dog-and-pony show.

Now, admittedly, Neal Boortz wasn't actually attacking Santorum's platform - in fact, he basically signed on right alongside him about the evils of contraception and the lack of excuses for abortion, ever - but even Neal Boortz thinks Santorum needs to shut the fuck up before he scares away every possible independent voter.

Republicans need to shut this crap down, stop trying to out-extreme one another, and start in on a grown-up political race.

I don't they're capable of doing that now. The time for that passed when Rick Santorum began winning caucuses and primaries, if not before.

[Grave_n_idle]

I was listening to Neal Boortz in the car today, and - in between talking about how Democrats want to literally destroy America, and how much anyone who would even consider voting for them must hate America... I was rather surprised to hear Neal Boortz say that Santorum was doing more harm than good to the Republican dog-and-pony show.

Now, admittedly, Neal Boortz wasn't actually attacking Santorum's platform - in fact, he basically signed on right alongside him about the evils of contraception and the lack of excuses for abortion, ever - but even Neal Boortz thinks Santorum needs to shut the fuck up before he scares away every possible independent voter.

Republicans need to shut this crap down, stop trying to out-extreme one another, and start in on a grown-up political race.

I don't they're capable of doing that now. The time for that passed when Rick Santorum began winning caucuses and primaries, if not before.

Santorum could still do the best thing for the GOP, and pull out. If even Neal 'Democrats hate America' Boortz thinks you're doing more harm than good, you really must be waaaaay out there.

[Jocabia]

What makes the whole thing sad is that Santorum cannot really run for President after his handling of the primaries. It's not possible. Can you imagine having a candidate who didn't even have enough organization to get on all the ballots and assign all his delegates? What's he gonna say when that comes up in the general? "Uh, well, I didn't think the voters were actually crazy enough to support me."

He has the same problem Clinton had last cycle, he isn't organized enough to run in the general and if you can't run a campaign, you're not capable of being President. Period. Campaigns are exhausting and require a ton of organization, but they're walks in the park compared to the level of organization and ability to balance competing needs that the Presidency requires.

Even if I agreed with his platform, like I largely agreed with Hillary Clinton's, I'd still deem him unqualified for the job and not being on the ballot in the capitol of the country he's trying to run proves that beyond doubt.

[Kaeshar]

Yeah, he's too crazy even for the residents of the capitol. Which says something doesn't it?

[Free Soviets]

The strategy of Romney's adversaries is to keep him from getting to 1144 and then taking their chances at Tampa in a free-for-all convention. In that sense, there's no reason for any of them to quit: They may have no way of getting to 1144, but if nobody gets to that total, then every delegate is leverage to extract from Romney something they want in return (such as Newt wanting to be, say, Secretary of State if he can't be VP, for example...).

<lets the horrific idea of Secretary of State Gingrich sink in>

That would be kind of like declaring war on the entire planet, wouldn't it?

i can't imagine the party leaders wouldn't figure out some way to game the system/rig the vote in the case that romney has an absolutely dominant plurality long before the convention. i mean, chaos on the floor would make good teevee, but it would not look good at all for the party. they'll hash something out in a smoke-filled room before they let that happen. even if they have to literally buy-off 'soft' delegates.

wait, is florida one of the 'no smoking indoors' states?

edit: also, maybe they could just declare newt the territorial governor of the moon and allow slave-child labor there. that's all he really wants anyways.

[Farnhamia]

The strategy of Romney's adversaries is to keep him from getting to 1144 and then taking their chances at Tampa in a free-for-all convention. In that sense, there's no reason for any of them to quit: They may have no way of getting to 1144, but if nobody gets to that total, then every delegate is leverage to extract from Romney something they want in return (such as Newt wanting to be, say, Secretary of State if he can't be VP, for example...).

<lets the horrific idea of Secretary of State Gingrich sink in>

That would be kind of like declaring war on the entire planet, wouldn't it?

i can't imagine the party leaders wouldn't figure out some way to game the system/rig the vote in the case that romney has an absolutely dominant plurality long before the convention. i mean, chaos on the floor would make good teevee, but it would not look good at all for the party. they'll hash something out in a smoke-filled room before they let that happen. even if they have to literally buy-off 'soft' delegates.

wait, is florida one of the 'no smoking indoors' states?

edit: also, maybe they could just declare newt the territorial governor of the moon and allow slave-child labor there. that's all he really wants anyways.

They could move it to Tampa Stadium ... is that covered?

[The United Soviet Socialist Republic]

Dear god, why is Newt Gingrich so popular in america?!

[Wikkiwallana]

The strategy of Romney's adversaries is to keep him from getting to 1144 and then taking their chances at Tampa in a free-for-all convention. In that sense, there's no reason for any of them to quit: They may have no way of getting to 1144, but if nobody gets to that total, then every delegate is leverage to extract from Romney something they want in return (such as Newt wanting to be, say, Secretary of State if he can't be VP, for example...).

<lets the horrific idea of Secretary of State Gingrich sink in>

That would be kind of like declaring war on the entire planet, wouldn't it?

i can't imagine the party leaders wouldn't figure out some way to game the system/rig the vote in the case that romney has an absolutely dominant plurality long before the convention. i mean, chaos on the floor would make good teevee, but it would not look good at all for the party. they'll hash something out in a smoke-filled room before they let that happen. even if they have to literally buy-off 'soft' delegates.

wait, is florida one of the 'no smoking indoors' states?

edit: also, maybe they could just declare newt the territorial governor of the moon and allow slave-child labor there. that's all he really wants anyways.

How many more replacement wives would he get in the deal?

[Kaeshar]

I don't think the rooms are actually smoke filled anymore. The term smoke filled room is just a metaphor these days because in the past, politicians really did do closed diliberations in smoke filled rooms when most people smoked.

[Serrland]

i can't imagine the party leaders wouldn't figure out some way to game the system/rig the vote in the case that romney has an absolutely dominant plurality long before the convention. i mean, chaos on the floor would make good teevee, but it would not look good at all for the party. they'll hash something out in a smoke-filled room before they let that happen. even if they have to literally buy-off 'soft' delegates.

wait, is florida one of the 'no smoking indoors' states?

edit: also, maybe they could just declare newt the territorial governor of the moon and allow slave-child labor there. that's all he really wants anyways.

They could move it to Tampa Stadium ... is that covered?

It wasn't, but it was demolished over a decade ago.

And the big pirate ship in Raymond James Stadium would certainly ruin the ambiance.

I miss the days where conventions were held at a given city as a reward to the local machine bosses

[Farnhamia]

They could move it to Tampa Stadium ... is that covered?

It wasn't, but it was demolished over a decade ago.

And the big pirate ship in Raymond James Stadium would certainly ruin the ambiance.

I miss the days where conventions were held at a given city as a reward to the local machine bosses

Rats. And yeah, those were the days, Chicago in August, 30, 40 ballots ... good times.

[Wikkiwallana]

Dear god, why is Newt Gingrich so popular in america?!

He isn't. Primary voters don't represent the general population all that well.

[The United Soviet Socialist Republic]

Dear god, why is Newt Gingrich so popular in america?!

He isn't. Primary voters don't represent the general population all that well.

Still if that crazy person is popular among the primaries than the next person to run will be Sarah Palin.

[Andaluciae]

The strategy of Romney's adversaries is to keep him from getting to 1144 and then taking their chances at Tampa in a free-for-all convention. In that sense, there's no reason for any of them to quit: They may have no way of getting to 1144, but if nobody gets to that total, then every delegate is leverage to extract from Romney something they want in return (such as Newt wanting to be, say, Secretary of State if he can't be VP, for example...).

<lets the horrific idea of Secretary of State Gingrich sink in>

That would be kind of like declaring war on the entire planet, wouldn't it?

i can't imagine the party leaders wouldn't figure out some way to game the system/rig the vote in the case that romney has an absolutely dominant plurality long before the convention. i mean, chaos on the floor would make good teevee, but it would not look good at all for the party. they'll hash something out in a smoke-filled room before they let that happen. even if they have to literally buy-off 'soft' delegates.

Entertainingly, this entire show is the doing of the party bosses. They concluded that the truncated 2008 primary hurt the party, and gave them a weak candidate. They saw how strong Obama was after his slugfest with Hillary, so they decided the key to picking a better candidate was a bruising primary.

This is their own doing. They dug their own grave.

[Free Soviets]

i looked it up. they have an exemption for 'designated smoking rooms' at hotels. crisis averted!

[Andaluciae]

i looked it up. they have an exemption for 'designated smoking rooms' at hotels. crisis averted!

Potential for magnificent outcomes!

[Farnhamia]

i looked it up. they have an exemption for 'designated smoking rooms' at hotels. crisis averted!

Thank Reagan!

[Alien Space Bats]

I expect vote-rigging and delegate-stealing; of course, that cuts both ways. Remember that while Democrats habitually vote for the candidate they dislike the least, Republicans simply refuse to compromise and end up not voting for any candidate they can't support. If Romney cheats his way to a win, there's a good chance that the far right will simply stay home, believing that electing Mitt Romney is no better then re-electing Barack Obama. This was a factor for the GOP in 1996 and in 2008; it will be a factor in 2012, even if the race ends today.

Second, there's a good chance that Newt will fade from the equation from here on out. I expect him to try and fight for Louisiana and I expect him to try and fight for Texas, but past that point his relevance to the race will fade. He won't drop out, because he wants to keep his delegates as a bargaining chip in Tampa; but he isn't likely to bite as hard into Santorum's side from here on out.

I also think Mitt has committed a strategic blunder in saying publicly that he can't accept Santorum as his VP because Frothy isn't conservative enough on birth control and abortion. You have to wonder if there's some sort of gene in the Romney family tree that makes him say stupid things that can kill his campaign. But with that quote, not only has Mitt bought Rick Santorum's position on reproductive rights, he's actually committed himself to exceeding it.

Santorum will naturally air ads showing Romney saying that and then showing 90's Mitt speaking of how he supports a woman's right to choose, of how he supports Planned Parenthood, of how he and his wife raised money for Planned Parenthood, and essentially call him out as a flip-flopping liar. Indeed, Santorum has to do that if he wants to be viable in 2016 (and following the standard GOP succession rules, Frothy has essentially established himself as the heir apparent for 2016); he has to defend his core brand.

So where does that leave Mitt? He has no choice but to double down and move to Santorum's right on reproductive issues. He has to come out and say that 90's Mitt was before he saw the light, and that now he's hard-core pro-life and anti-contraception. He has to endorse a complete elimination of Title X money (because he's been attacking Santorum for supporting Title X); he has to say he's going to throw poor women under the bus when it comes to mammograms, etc. He has to endorse fetal personhood. He has to endorse mandatory waiting periods, "informed consent" ultrasounds, the works. All of this is going to alienate the GOP's "silent majority minority" of moderates and Republican-leaning independents - and it may just infuriate true conservatives (from the sheer flaming chutzpah of it all) enough to bring them out in droves for Santorum.

It was more than a stupid thing to say. It was a fucking bloody stupid thing to say.

I'm not at all discounting the possibility that Mitt will get 1144 before Tampa, or even the 1000 or so he needs to get to within striking distance for a deal. But given his weakness in the red States - which have a louder voice at the convention than the blue States (because that's how the delegate allocation system works; the Democratic system works the same way, but in reverse) - my point is that there's no reason why the Fab Four shouldn't all stay in the race and ride this thing all the way through to the convention.

And indeed, the longer this goes on, the greater the rewards for staying in, in so far as everybody's delegate count rises, and those delegates become ever more important as leverage the closer and closer we get to the Convention.