Taiwan vs China: Who would win?

[Californian Mod Haters]

Why's this a worthless question:

[Epicnopolis]

Why's this a worthless question:

Because we nuke people who nuke good people who have no nukes that don't like people with nukes. You understand?

[Khodoristan]

A taiwan-china war is a legitimate conflict that may happen within our lifetime. After reading up on the topic and capabilities of the said nations, i have deduced this: The PRC (mainland china) would not be able to sustain an assault on The Republic of China (ROC). The PRC simply cannot move the men and materials to the island. Taiwan has the backing of the US/EU/Israel, and their technology is a decade or so behind the ROC Armed Forces. What say you? Voice your opinion?

Why would the EU back up Taiwan? The Germans and French are all over the PRC now the weapons embargo is about to end.

*edit*

Also the PRC has massively higher industrial capacity and numbers of people so err no the ROC would lose.

Taiwan is currently trying to acquire the Challenger 2 or Leclerc tanks, both EU products. It has Mirage 2000's, another EU product. EU is just like the US; they stand officialy neutral, but secretly funnel aid to the ROC. In my opinion, i think the ROC would win; the PRC just doesnt have the training or equipment to sustain an invasion on the ROC.

Plus, the ROC are some BADASS MOFO's! Theyd make china pay for every inch of Taiwanese soil.

[Fartsniffage]

If they could just "build more ships" they would not have such a 5th rate navy. They don't, because they can't.

The ROC airforce is more then enough to keep the PRC off its shores and its superior navy just amplifies its air superiority against the PRC.

20 minutes, sure, lets see how long it takes for the PRC airbases to stay operational after the war starts.

Taiwan isn't Tibet, and you could have a billion-man army equppied with the latest Norinco-death-rays but thats completely useless if you can't across an expanse of water, which the PRC decidedly cannot effectively do.

The PRC has around 700 4th-4.5th generation fighter aircraft that if can field against RoCs 240, the air war would be over before it began. Especially when one considers the number of short and medium range missiles the PRC would be hammering the ROC airfields with. Patriot is a good system but it wouldn't be able to protect against a large co-ordinated attack for any extended period.

The PRC would gain air superiority is short order and use this advantage to allow its' large but pants navy to ships the troops over with beach heads having already been established by paratroopers and defended by the huge number of Q-5s they still have flying.

The land battle would be costly for PRC but they would win it, it's difficult to use armour when you have no airforce left.

[Khodoristan]

What the ROC lacks in quantity, they make up in quality. for every mirage downed, 10 Q-5s would be downed. when (if) china gains control of the island, they find that they have to fight a VERY unfriendly taiwanese populace in urban combat (which they are nowhere near ready to do). ROC will make it known very early that theyre not going down without a fight. maybe china will win, but at an enormous cost.

[Virtud Tierra]

If they could just "build more ships" they would not have such a 5th rate navy. They don't, because they can't.

The ROC airforce is more then enough to keep the PRC off its shores and its superior navy just amplifies its air superiority against the PRC.

20 minutes, sure, lets see how long it takes for the PRC airbases to stay operational after the war starts.

Taiwan isn't Tibet, and you could have a billion-man army equppied with the latest Norinco-death-rays but thats completely useless if you can't across an expanse of water, which the PRC decidedly cannot effectively do.

The PRC has around 700 4th-4.5th generation fighter aircraft that if can field against RoCs 240, the air war would be over before it began. Especially when one considers the number of short and medium range missiles the PRC would be hammering the ROC airfields with. Patriot is a good system but it wouldn't be able to protect against a large co-ordinated attack for any extended period.

The PRC would gain air superiority is short order and use this advantage to allow its' large but pants navy to ships the troops over with beach heads having already been established by paratroopers and defended by the huge number of Q-5s they still have flying.

The land battle would be costly for PRC but they would win it, it's difficult to use armour when you have no airforce left.

The ROC have the advantage of being on island and being aware of everything approaching their nation. The PRC would never be stupid or able to mobilze their entire airforce against the ROC, even if they did, a 1:3 kill ratio in air attrition is not against the question considering the disparity between the two nation's level of training and equipment.

The PRC might take the island in say, another 15 years or so, but if it could, they would have to pay far too much, in money, equipment, men and political stature to do so. The PRC doesn't want a blood bath for something it already pretends to be a national province.

[Gazilland]

To be honest, China would win. To those who think China has poor equipment, their Type-95 rifle beats the M16 in accuracy, and Their Type-99a2 tank is enough to rival an Abrams, while it can destroy a M60a3 Tank that Taiwan uses as its main MBT.

China has numbers on its side, and its navy isn't as bad as many seem to think.

[Khodoristan]

If they could just "build more ships" they would not have such a 5th rate navy. They don't, because they can't.

The ROC airforce is more then enough to keep the PRC off its shores and its superior navy just amplifies its air superiority against the PRC.

20 minutes, sure, lets see how long it takes for the PRC airbases to stay operational after the war starts.

Taiwan isn't Tibet, and you could have a billion-man army equppied with the latest Norinco-death-rays but thats completely useless if you can't across an expanse of water, which the PRC decidedly cannot effectively do.

The PRC has around 700 4th-4.5th generation fighter aircraft that if can field against RoCs 240, the air war would be over before it began. Especially when one considers the number of short and medium range missiles the PRC would be hammering the ROC airfields with. Patriot is a good system but it wouldn't be able to protect against a large co-ordinated attack for any extended period.

The PRC would gain air superiority is short order and use this advantage to allow its' large but pants navy to ships the troops over with beach heads having already been established by paratroopers and defended by the huge number of Q-5s they still have flying.

The land battle would be costly for PRC but they would win it, it's difficult to use armour when you have no airforce left.

The ROC have the advantage of being on island and being aware of everything approaching their nation. The PRC would never be stupid or able to mobilze their entire airforce against the ROC, even if they did, a 1:3 kill ratio in air attrition is not against the question considering the disparity between the two nation's level of training and equipment.

The PRC might take the island in say, another 15 years or so, but if it could, they would have to pay far too much, in money, equipment, men and political stature to do so. The PRC doesn't want a blood bath for something it already pretends to be a national province.

Checkmate.

[Gazilland]

The ROC have the advantage of being on island and being aware of everything approaching their nation. The PRC would never be stupid or able to mobilze their entire airforce against the ROC, even if they did, a 1:3 kill ratio in air attrition is not against the question considering the disparity between the two nation's level of training and equipment.

The PRC might take the island in say, another 15 years or so, but if it could, they would have to pay far too much, in money, equipment, men and political stature to do so. The PRC doesn't want a blood bath for something it already pretends to be a national province.

The disparity between the PRC and ROC is over-exaggerated considering how modernized the PLA is nowadays. By air, the J-10 is more than a formidable match for Taiwanese F-16 jets, being a copy of the Israeli Lavi jet.

[Greal]

Its going to get less and less likely if our dumbass president sells out Taiwan to China. (I live in Taiwan mind you)

[Fartsniffage]

The ROC have the advantage of being on island and being aware of everything approaching their nation. The PRC would never be stupid or able to mobilze their entire airforce against the ROC, even if they did, a 1:3 kill ratio in air attrition is not against the question considering the disparity between the two nation's level of training and equipment.

The PRC might take the island in say, another 15 years or so, but if it could, they would have to pay far too much, in money, equipment, men and political stature to do so. The PRC doesn't want a blood bath for something it already pretends to be a national province.

The point I'm trying to make is that the difference in aircraft technology levels is nowhere near as great as you're trying to make out, the PRC would be flying its' SU-27s, SU-30s, J-10s and J-11s against the RoCs F-16s, Mirages and F-CK-1s. All of these are 4th-4.5th generation aircraft and with the PRCs AWACs support even the older J-8s would be effective in number.

The PRC military isn't as backwards as it used to be and assuming a 3:1 kill ratio in favour of the RoC seems too high to me.

Any sea or land battles would be closer but gven that I'd fully expect the PRC to achieve air superiority over both Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait the advantage will be with the PRC.

Edit: Also, you're assuming that an effective number of RoCs aircraft would even get off the ground in the first place, you could bet your house that the PRC has the location for every airstrip on the island firmly lock in the targeting computer of it's short/medium range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. As I said earlier, Patriot is good but not that good.

[Virtud Tierra]

The ROC have the advantage of being on island and being aware of everything approaching their nation. The PRC would never be stupid or able to mobilze their entire airforce against the ROC, even if they did, a 1:3 kill ratio in air attrition is not against the question considering the disparity between the two nation's level of training and equipment.

The PRC might take the island in say, another 15 years or so, but if it could, they would have to pay far too much, in money, equipment, men and political stature to do so. The PRC doesn't want a blood bath for something it already pretends to be a national province.

The point I'm trying to make is that the difference in aircraft technology levels is nowhere near as great as you're trying to make out, the PRC would be flying its' SU-27s, SU-30s, J-10s and J-11s against the RoCs F-16s, Mirages and F-CK-1s. All of these are 4th-4.5th generation aircraft and with the PRCs AWACs support even the older J-8s would be effective in number.

The PRC military isn't as backwards as it used to be and assuming a 3:1 kill ratio in favour of the RoC seems too high to me.

Any sea or land battles would be closer but gven that I'd fully expect the PRC to achieve air superiority over both Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait the advantage will be with the PRC.

Edit: Also, you're assuming that an effective number of RoCs aircraft would even get off the ground in the first place, you could bet your house that the PRC has the location for every airstrip on the island firmly lock in the targeting computer of it's short/medium range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. As I said earlier, Patriot is good but not that good.

Still, Patriot missile systems are really good and I don't think the PRC have anything like it to make up for that.

Certainly the PRC could do damage to the airbases with their missiles. The ROC has the same ability to un-enable the PRC airbases.

I really doubt the PRC could currently maintain air superiority over the RoC to an extent to launch a ground offensive on the island. It simply would not happen.

In the future, it would be entirely possible. If the war happened tomarrow, no way in hell.

[New Genoa]

Taiwan. I like the cut of their jib.

[H N Fiddlebottoms VIII]

Their Type-99a2 tank is enough to rival an Abrams, while it can destroy a M60a3 Tank that Taiwan uses as its main MBT.

The Type-99's are impressive, but they are also ridiculously expensive and so they can't be fielded in sufficient numbers to serve as a main battle tank. Wikipedia says China only has about 600 of the whole T-99 series (the a2 plus a few preceding generations), that's less than 10% of their ... fleet? army? gaggle? What do you call a nation's complete group of tanks? Regardless, there are only a handful of T-99a2's in service.
More importantly, the T-99's are not amphibious (a useful attribute when invading islands) and probably couldn't get to Taiwan anyway, because moving a tank across the ocean is a lot harder than moving just troops. You can move ground troops just by press-ganging a few thousand fishing boats, but moving a tank (plus fuel, ammo, equipment, crews, etc) is a greater logistical challenge.

As to who would win? I'd still say China. How would they do it? In "Lenigen versus the Ants," a swarm of army ants runs into a moat. They can't find a way around the moat, but are unwilling to turn back, so they just plow through it. Eventually, enough ants have died in the water that the survivors behind them can just walk across the moat, and that is sort of how I picture the PLA getting to Taiwan. Maybe not literally, but they could just keeping throwing manpower at the issue until Taiwan broke. However, it is sort of a moot point, as I doubt that China would really try anything. They'd practically have to destroy Taiwan to actually get ahold of it, and then the US would get really huffy and remove China from the Christmas card list.

[H N Fiddlebottoms VIII]

China vs. Taiwan. Perhaps we should take a look at Russia vs. Georgia.

A draw. The Russian army would be unable to win any solid victory in the face of crack squads of plucky teenagers, but Georgia lacks the capacity to retaliate against a nation halfway across the world. I guess they could turn that water tower shaped like a giant peach around so that the butt was pointing in Russia's direction, or threaten to send Mastodon on a Russian tour, but that's about the limit of their offensive capability.

Yes, I know what Georgia he was talking about, but I just prefer it this way. Shut up.

[Virtud Tierra]

Their Type-99a2 tank is enough to rival an Abrams, while it can destroy a M60a3 Tank that Taiwan uses as its main MBT.

The Type-99's are impressive, but they are also ridiculously expensive and so they can't be fielded in sufficient numbers to serve as a main battle tank. Wikipedia says China only has about 600 of the whole T-99 series (the a2 plus a few preceding generations), that's less than 10% of their ... fleet? army? gaggle? What do you call a nation's complete group of tanks? Regardless, there are only a handful of T-99a2's in service.
More importantly, the T-99's are not amphibious (a useful attribute when invading islands) and probably couldn't get to Taiwan anyway, because moving a tank across the ocean is a lot harder than moving just troops. You can move ground troops just by press-ganging a few thousand fishing boats, but moving a tank (plus fuel, ammo, equipment, crews, etc) is a greater logistical challenge.

As to who would win? I'd still say China. How would they do it? In "Lenigen versus the Ants," a swarm of army ants runs into a moat. They can't find a way around the moat, but are unwilling to turn back, so they just plow through it. Eventually, enough ants have died in the water that the survivors behind them can just walk across the moat, and that is sort of how I picture the PLA getting to Taiwan. Maybe not literally, but they could just keeping throwing manpower at the issue until Taiwan broke. However, it is sort of a moot point, as I doubt that China would really try anything. They'd practically have to destroy Taiwan to actually get ahold of it, and then the US would get really huffy and remove China from the Christmas card list.

I'd have to disagree. Ants can float on the surface tension of water to reach their goal. Chinese soldiers cannot swim across hundreds of miles of ocean, especially so if they are being machinegunned and sprayed by napalm by warships and aircraft.

They don't have the stuff they need to invade Tiawan, so they cannot do so. A large population and callous disregard for human life would not help the PRC in this case. They would not take the island, no matter how many makeshift rafts and converted shipping vessels they used, they would be attacked and destroyed by the RoC Airforce and Navy, which the PRC would not be able to control to their favor.

[Techno-Soviet]

America and NATO.

/thread

[Gazilland]

Their Type-99a2 tank is enough to rival an Abrams, while it can destroy a M60a3 Tank that Taiwan uses as its main MBT.

The Type-99's are impressive, but they are also ridiculously expensive and so they can't be fielded in sufficient numbers to serve as a main battle tank. Wikipedia says China only has about 600 of the whole T-99 series (the a2 plus a few preceding generations), that's less than 10% of their ... fleet? army? gaggle? What do you call a nation's complete group of tanks? Regardless, there are only a handful of T-99a2's in service.
More importantly, the T-99's are not amphibious (a useful attribute when invading islands) and probably couldn't get to Taiwan anyway, because moving a tank across the ocean is a lot harder than moving just troops. You can move ground troops just by press-ganging a few thousand fishing boats, but moving a tank (plus fuel, ammo, equipment, crews, etc) is a greater logistical challenge.

As to who would win? I'd still say China. How would they do it? In "Lenigen versus the Ants," a swarm of army ants runs into a moat. They can't find a way around the moat, but are unwilling to turn back, so they just plow through it. Eventually, enough ants have died in the water that the survivors behind them can just walk across the moat, and that is sort of how I picture the PLA getting to Taiwan. Maybe not literally, but they could just keeping throwing manpower at the issue until Taiwan broke. However, it is sort of a moot point, as I doubt that China would really try anything. They'd practically have to destroy Taiwan to actually get ahold of it, and then the US would get really huffy and remove China from the Christmas card list.

I'd have to disagree. Ants can float on the surface tension of water to reach their goal. Chinese soldiers cannot swim across hundreds of miles of ocean, especially so if they are being machinegunned and sprayed by napalm by warships and aircraft.

They don't have the stuff they need to invade Tiawan, so they cannot do so. A large population and callous disregard for human life would not help the PRC in this case. They would not take the island, no matter how many makeshift rafts and converted shipping vessels they used, they would be attacked and destroyed by the RoC Airforce and Navy, which the PRC would not be able to control to their favor.

*sigh* China's has a decent navy and airforce you know.

[Gazilland]

Their Type-99a2 tank is enough to rival an Abrams, while it can destroy a M60a3 Tank that Taiwan uses as its main MBT.

The Type-99's are impressive, but they are also ridiculously expensive and so they can't be fielded in sufficient numbers to serve as a main battle tank. Wikipedia says China only has about 600 of the whole T-99 series (the a2 plus a few preceding generations), that's less than 10% of their ... fleet? army? gaggle? What do you call a nation's complete group of tanks? Regardless, there are only a handful of T-99a2's in service.
More importantly, the T-99's are not amphibious (a useful attribute when invading islands) and probably couldn't get to Taiwan anyway, because moving a tank across the ocean is a lot harder than moving just troops. You can move ground troops just by press-ganging a few thousand fishing boats, but moving a tank (plus fuel, ammo, equipment, crews, etc) is a greater logistical challenge.

As to who would win? I'd still say China. How would they do it? In "Lenigen versus the Ants," a swarm of army ants runs into a moat. They can't find a way around the moat, but are unwilling to turn back, so they just plow through it. Eventually, enough ants have died in the water that the survivors behind them can just walk across the moat, and that is sort of how I picture the PLA getting to Taiwan. Maybe not literally, but they could just keeping throwing manpower at the issue until Taiwan broke. However, it is sort of a moot point, as I doubt that China would really try anything. They'd practically have to destroy Taiwan to actually get ahold of it, and then the US would get really huffy and remove China from the Christmas card list.

600 Type 99 tanks and about 2000+ Type 96 tanks would be sufficient to disable the technologically inferior 450+ m60a3 tanks. If you want an amphibious tank, they even have a Type 63A Amphibious Tank to deal with, and it's ATGM could wipe out the M60 tanks regardless. China has clear air superiority against Taiwan, with J-10s and J-11s vs F-16s.

[Virtud Tierra]

I'd have to disagree. Ants can float on the surface tension of water to reach their goal. Chinese soldiers cannot swim across hundreds of miles of ocean, especially so if they are being machinegunned and sprayed by napalm by warships and aircraft.

They don't have the stuff they need to invade Tiawan, so they cannot do so. A large population and callous disregard for human life would not help the PRC in this case. They would not take the island, no matter how many makeshift rafts and converted shipping vessels they used, they would be attacked and destroyed by the RoC Airforce and Navy, which the PRC would not be able to control to their favor.

*sigh* China's has a decent navy and airforce you know.[/quote]

No, the PRC really doesn't have a decent navy or airforce at all.

The PRC Airforce is better then their navy, which, looking at thier navy, isn't saying much.

[Gazilland]

I'd have to disagree. Ants can float on the surface tension of water to reach their goal. Chinese soldiers cannot swim across hundreds of miles of ocean, especially so if they are being machinegunned and sprayed by napalm by warships and aircraft.

They don't have the stuff they need to invade Tiawan, so they cannot do so. A large population and callous disregard for human life would not help the PRC in this case. They would not take the island, no matter how many makeshift rafts and converted shipping vessels they used, they would be attacked and destroyed by the RoC Airforce and Navy, which the PRC would not be able to control to their favor.

*sigh* China's has a decent navy and airforce you know.

No, the PRC really doesn't have a decent navy or airforce at all.

The PRC Airforce is better then their navy, which, looking at thier navy, isn't saying much.[/quote]
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/art ... 1703.shtml

The Chinese Navy is quickly modernising, and in comparison to the taiwanese navy, isn't 3/4 bad. Besides that, Fujian Province can operate as the best Aircraft Carrier. Theres not that far of a distance to travel, and with China's air superiority compared to Taiwan, this serves as a bonus.

[Eternal Mysteries]

This is not a war about to happen. Sorry, but this imagined war scenario is redundant.

ROC and PRC are not going to war. They may not agree on everything, but they are not suicidal and about to waste the wealth they hold currently.

PRC is secretly focusing it's future on taking advantage of the current Middle East area.

The Middle Eastern countries (excluding Israel) has it's focus on Israel and all infidels (non-Islamics), the Chinese will be coming in the back door attempting to dominate ALL Middle Eastern countries and region.

This will not sit well with the Soviet Block.

[Gazilland]

This is not a war about to happen. Sorry, but this imagined war scenario is redundant.

ROC and PRC are not going to war. They may not agree on everything, but they are not suicidal and about to waste the wealth they hold currently.

PRC is secretly focusing it's future on taking advantage of the current Middle East area.

The Middle Eastern countries (excluding Israel) has it's focus on Israel and all infidels (non-Islamics), the Chinese will be coming in the back door attempting to dominate ALL Middle Eastern countries and region.

This will not sit well with the Soviet Block.

Though I agree with you, I point out the massive modernisation programme by the PLA to contrast with Taiwans military. Taiwan should, in my opinion, invest in modernising their military, though a war scenario is highly unlikely.

[Risottia]

A taiwan-china war is a legitimate conflict that may happen within our lifetime. After reading up on the topic and capabilities of the said nations, i have deduced this: The PRC (mainland china) would not be able to sustain an assault on The Republic of China (ROC). The PRC simply cannot move the men and materials to the island.

The most populated nation of the world, and a rising industrial power, vs a small island? Pretty one-sided. All the PRC has to do is to confiscate one-tenth of its merchantile fleet and put troops and tanks on it.

Taiwan has the backing of the US/EU/Israel, and their technology is a decade or so behind the ROC Armed Forces. What say you? Voice your opinion?

The only question is: would Taiwan last so much (let's say 48 hours) to allow reaction from its allies before it's totally overrun?
I'd say that, if PRC carefully planned their attack (including decapitation strikes as first move), it's a total "NO". Taiwan wouldn't stand the chance of a snowball in a supernova.

[CIB EMPIRE]

A taiwan-china war is a legitimate conflict that may happen within our lifetime. After reading up on the topic and capabilities of the said nations, i have deduced this: The PRC (mainland china) would not be able to sustain an assault on The Republic of China (ROC). The PRC simply cannot move the men and materials to the island. Taiwan has the backing of the US/EU/Israel, and their technology is a decade or so behind the ROC Armed Forces. What say you? Voice your opinion?

China would win.
They have nukesm billion man army, better technology and russia backing them.

The USA would not get involved because china would do a all out war on them.