Italy arrests quake scientists, shakes scientific world

[Fionnuala_Saoirse]

On the face of it I must say this is just plain nuts. Earthquakes are not predictable. I suppose if they'd given a warning and there was no quake, they'd have been busted for that too? On the other hand imagine if you could sue weathermen every time they were wrong.

During the hearing, the prosecutor called the committee's risk assessment "superficial and generic", resulting in "incomplete, imprecise and contradictory public information". Responding to the thousands of scientists who had signed a letter of support for the defendants, the prosecutor acknowledged that the committee members had no way of predicting the earthquake, but he accused them of translating their scientific uncertainty into an overly optimistic message.

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110526/ ... 1.325.html

[Mystic Walrus]

Injustice. Scientists aren't obliged to protect the public, unless of course they knew that an earthquake was highly probable at that time and place.

Scientists cannot predict the future either

[Geniasis]

I posted about this back when it was fresh.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=114620&hilit=manslaughter

But yeah, it was absolute nonsense then too. I'm honestly hoping this turns out to be just a show trial and they all get acquitted or some shit.

[The Corparation]

If I recall correctly Long Valley Caldera is set to blow only within the next few thousand years. So we probably don't have to worry about Yellowstone too much as its likely that America's other super volcano will have gone off by then.

We have quite a bit more calderas than Long Valley and Yellowstone...

Yeah but those two are the biggest in the US.

the most badass person that i ever saw on internet cries,thats perfect...

The most badass person you saw on the internet was a probably a Marine, an Army Ranger and a Green Beret, who beat the living shit out of every single person who didn't believe him, all before the age of enlistment.

Most badass person I've seen on the internet is Nuclear Fist. He was none of those things. He was better.

[Myrensis]

What say you? Does this trial do an injustice to the scientific community? As a bonus, do you believe that scientists will be able to predict - with accuracy - a seismic event with enough time to evacuate the public?

While I still think the lawsuit is BS, they're not being charged because they failed to perfectly predict the earthquake, they're being charged because, in their capacity as experts, they completely failed to provide any reasonable warning or caution about it.

Though, as I understand it, the scientists themselves were actually perfectly sensible, noting that while it was improbable that there would be an earthquake, there were signs indicating the possibility. It was some random public official who they were communicating with who went out and told everybody pretty much literally "Everything is fine, go get drunk!".

[Geniasis]

What say you? Does this trial do an injustice to the scientific community? As a bonus, do you believe that scientists will be able to predict - with accuracy - a seismic event with enough time to evacuate the public?

While I still think the lawsuit is BS, they're not being charged because they failed to perfectly predict the earthquake, they're being charged because, in their capacity as experts, they completely failed to provide any reasonable warning or caution about it.

Though, as I understand it, the scientists themselves were actually perfectly sensible, noting that while it was improbable that there would be an earthquake, there were signs indicating the possibility. It was some random public official who they were communicating with who went out and told everybody pretty much literally "Everything is fine, go get drunk!".

The reason they didn't really go out and warn people, is because false alarms happen all the time. The model for predicting them is very imprecise, and it is not uncommon for something to set off the sensors and result in absolutely nothing.

[Sociobiology]

guess what a huge volcano sits in the center of the US when it erupts it will destroy the US economy and kill huge numbers of people mostly in the midwest, do you know the most accurate warning we can give. The Yellowstone caldera is highly likely to erupt within the next 50,000 years, if you live in the Midwest, there is a good chance you will die. there you have been warned.

If I recall correctly Long Valley Caldera is set to blow only within the next few thousand years. So we probably don't have to worry about Yellowstone too much as its likely that America's other super volcano will have gone off by then.

long valley is extinct, the subduction that fueled it is no longer occurring, so even if it did erupt it would be low power. Yellowstone is fueled by a hot-spot so will never go extinct.

[Socialist States Owen]

Title puns make babies cry.

Also, I feel really sorry for the guy at the epicentre of any Yellowstone explosion that takes place in the next 50,000 years.

[The Corparation]

If I recall correctly Long Valley Caldera is set to blow only within the next few thousand years. So we probably don't have to worry about Yellowstone too much as its likely that America's other super volcano will have gone off by then.

long valley is extinct, the subduction that fueled it is no longer occurring, so even if it did erupt it would be low power. Yellowstone is fueled by a hot-spot so will never go extinct.

Which is why in the past few years geologic activity has been on the rise. Plus even a smaller blast would screw up a good portion of the west coast for a while.

[Death-Magnavox]

We have quite a bit more calderas than Long Valley and Yellowstone...

Yeah but those two are the biggest in the US.

The most badass person you saw on the internet was a probably a Marine, an Army Ranger and a Green Beret, who beat the living shit out of every single person who didn't believe him, all before the age of enlistment.

Most badass person I've seen on the internet is Nuclear Fist. He was none of those things. He was better.

I never saw the nuclear fist before, so i still didn saw him yet.

[Death-Magnavox]

Title puns make babies cry.

Also, I feel really sorry for the guy at the epicentre of any Yellowstone explosion that takes place in the next 50,000 years.

dont be sorry for me, well, i plan to live long enough to die there.

[GeneralHaNor]

the most badass person that i ever saw on internet cries,thats perfect...

The most badass person you saw on the internet was a probably a Marine, an Army Ranger and a Green Beret, who beat the living shit out of every single person who didn't believe him, all before the age of enlistment.

Nah, I'm an Original Gangster. I stole cars and made meth that I sold to school children, I spit in the face of cops and don't give a fuck.

(all true stories bro)

[Christmahanikwanzikah]

I posted about this back when it was fresh.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=114620&hilit=manslaughter

But yeah, it was absolute nonsense then too. I'm honestly hoping this turns out to be just a show trial and they all get acquitted or some shit.

Hah, well... that's what I get for reading CNN.

[Risottia]

these so-called "scientists" are directors of governmental agencies whose task is to warn about quake risks and plan evacuations
there had been precursory shocks for ONE MONTH before the main shock

So what?

So you start evacuating the building who are ALREADY showing cracks and other signs of reduced structural stability.
BECAUSE YOU CAN SEE IF A BLOODY BUILDING ISN'T AS SOLID AS IT WAS BEFORE A MONTH'S WORTH OF 4 RICHTER SHOCKS.
See, I can play the "big bolded text game" too.

[Yaltabaoth]

So what?

So you start evacuating the building who are ALREADY showing cracks and other signs of reduced structural stability.
BECAUSE YOU CAN SEE IF A BLOODY BUILDING ISN'T AS SOLID AS IT WAS BEFORE A MONTH'S WORTH OF 4 RICHTER SHOCKS.
See, I can play the "big bolded text game" too.

Good for you. Why don't you go sit under the back end of a cow, clearly you deserve a pat on the head.

Evacuating a brick building isn't going to stop those bricks from flying in all directions when a quake hits, your answer has nothing to do with anything I posted.

[Risottia]

Good for you. Why don't you go sit under the back end of a cow, clearly you deserve a pat on the head.

Three... two... ignition... aaand AD HOMINEM! WE HAVE AD HOMINEM! It has cleared the launch tower...

Evacuating a brick building isn't going to stop those bricks from flying in all directions when a quake hits, your answer has nothing to do with anything I posted.

Because of course the casualties you have from debris are totally the same you have from people being trapped in a collapsing building.
You're being so purposefully thick, you could be used as an antiseismic building element.

[Christmahanikwanzikah]

So what?

So you start evacuating the building who are ALREADY showing cracks and other signs of reduced structural stability.
BECAUSE YOU CAN SEE IF A BLOODY BUILDING ISN'T AS SOLID AS IT WAS BEFORE A MONTH'S WORTH OF 4 RICHTER SHOCKS.
See, I can play the "big bolded text game" too.

Structural damage should and ought to be checked by a resident engineer for the building, not those responsible for generating seismic hazard data. In the United States, at least, resident structural engineers and building inspectors are responsible for damage inspection and remediation after major earthquakes.

[Risottia]

Structural damage should and ought to be checked by a resident engineer for the building, not those responsible for generating seismic hazard data. In the United States, at least, resident structural engineers and building inspectors are responsible for damage inspection and remediation after major earthquakes.

In Italy, calling those checks is Protezione Civile's job, upon INGV alert.

[Wiztopia]

Good for you. Why don't you go sit under the back end of a cow, clearly you deserve a pat on the head.

Three... two... ignition... aaand AD HOMINEM! WE HAVE AD HOMINEM! It has cleared the launch tower...

Evacuating a brick building isn't going to stop those bricks from flying in all directions when a quake hits, your answer has nothing to do with anything I posted.

Because of course the casualties you have from debris are totally the same you have from people being trapped in a collapsing building.
You're being so purposefully thick, you could be used as an antiseismic building element.

They wouldn't have left anyway unless they could take all their wine and pasta with them.

[Christmahanikwanzikah]

Evacuating a brick building isn't going to stop those bricks from flying in all directions when a quake hits, your answer has nothing to do with anything I posted.

Because of course the casualties you have from debris are totally the same you have from people being trapped in a collapsing building.
You're being so purposefully thick, you could be used as an antiseismic building element.

Well, a high viscosity damper would change the structure's period and possibly cause the structure to undergo higher seismic loads, so...

Yeah, I think I'm too tired for my own good.

[Yaltabaoth]

Good for you. Why don't you go sit under the back end of a cow, clearly you deserve a pat on the head.

Three... two... ignition... aaand AD HOMINEM! WE HAVE AD HOMINEM! It has cleared the launch tower...

Evacuating a brick building isn't going to stop those bricks from flying in all directions when a quake hits, your answer has nothing to do with anything I posted.

You're being so purposefully thick, you could be used as an antiseismic building element.

MY reply was ad hominem? I posted several paragraphs of reply to you, you didn't address anything I said whatsoever, just attacked the style of my post through mimicry.

Was it the responsibility of the scientists being charged to make structural assessments? I doubt it, so: relevance?

[Risottia]

MY reply was ad hominem?

Yes it was.

Was it the responsibility of the scientists being charged to make structural assessments? I doubt it, so: relevance?

They're NOT being charged for that. They're being charged of purposefully and deliberately underestimating the risks.

[Yaltabaoth]

MY reply was ad hominem?

Yes it was.

You're just being a blatant hypocrite now, done with you thanks.

[Wiztopia]

MY reply was ad hominem?

Yes it was.

Was it the responsibility of the scientists being charged to make structural assessments? I doubt it, so: relevance?

They're NOT being charged for that. They're being charged of purposefully and deliberately underestimating the risks.

Just like like a doctor who tells a patient everything will be fine.

[Sociobiology]

Evacuating a brick building isn't going to stop those bricks from flying in all directions when a quake hits, your answer has nothing to do with anything I posted.

Because of course the casualties you have from debris are totally the same you have from people being trapped in a collapsing building.
You're being so purposefully thick, you could be used as an antiseismic building element.

the problem is with earthquakes it would be evacuation for years at a time, that is the constrait caused by prediction, you can either tell them to leave the area entirely for years or you can tell them to go on about their business. you cannot predict an earthquake well enough to call for an evacuation.