Risottia wrote:these so-called "scientists" are directors of governmental agencies whose task is to warn about quake risks and plan evacuations
there had been precursory shocks for ONE MONTH before the main shock
So what?
Christchurch, NZ had a major (7.1) earthquake on Sept 4th last year. Incredibly there were no deaths.
In the week following there were over a thousand aftershocks, thousands more over the following several months. According to Wikipedia, there have been
almost 7,500 quakes in that region alone in the year since the first one.
On 22 Feb this year, it had another major (6.3, but shallower) quake, this one killed 181 people.
On 13 June this year, it suffered another 6.3 quake. Again no deaths.
Aftershocks continue to this day.
The thing is, prior to the 7.1 quake, they weren't common at all in Christchurch.
Meanwhile, half an island to the north of Christchurch, is Wellington - the capital of NZ and the seat of Parliament.
In all the years I lived in Wellington (NZ) I lived through hundreds, if not thousands of earthquakes there. Thankfully none were destructive like the Christchurch quakes, but they're still a
very common occurrence.
Everyone in NZ was expecting Wellington to be the site of "the big one". The place shakes worse than Michael J Fox mixing cocktails.
Given the high level of seismic activity elsewhere in NZ, I doubt you can imagine the amount of geological scrutiny Christchurch and surrounds has received since Sept 4th 2010.
Yet the Feb 22 quake went completely unpredicted.
This IS an absurd situation in Italy.
Because YOU CANNOT FUCKING PREDICT EARTHQUAKES! Besides, the logistics of evacuating an entire city would be immense, and to do it based on a prediction of an earthquake even more so. After the Feb 22 (fatal) quake, there were reports of the NZ Army having to evacuate residents practically at gunpoint, because they were refusing to leave their homes.
Their homes. Damaged as they were (the buildings, not the residents), they were still their homes.
Looting was also a major problem, with looters entering condemned and visibly sagging buildings, even venturing into the Red Zone in the devastated CBD despite the army being out in force.
Now imagine the free-for-all if you evacuated a whole city... or are you going to populate your risk-zone with expendable soldiers instead, to protect the (as yet undamaged) properties, homes, businesses from opportunists? Try to enforce a cordon around a whole region?
Now imagine the quake doesn't happen... how do you decide how long to wait before letting people back in? A week after the predicted date? How do you control letting everyone back in to their city?
Who's going to pay for all that work lost? Every employer in the city would be suing the Government for loss of income etc.
Then, let's say, the quake does actually occur, just later than predicted, like just after everyone's gotten back...