Democrats take seats in Wisconsin : Both Sides Claim Victory

[Farnhamia]

Raising taxes on the wealthy to Clinton-era levels, moderate adjustments to medicare and social security, cutting subsidies for oil, corn, and soybeans; along with ending loopholes in the corporate tax rate (and probably lowering it to around 25%).

But deficits aren't the problem to focus on right now. Let's get the economy started in the right direction before we decide to cut any more spending.

I agree 100%. But on the federal level for a quick moment, Harry Reid announced his reps for the "Super Congress", and it was John Kerry (D-MA), Max Baucus (D-Montana), and Patty Murray (D-WA), and while I agree with Kerry, I wished for different people, as I fear that these three will readily cave to the demands of the GOP and the TP. I fear more cuts are coming our way......

I don't know about that. The Republicans have already started bitching about having Patty Murray as the co-chair. Maybe they're afraid she won't just roll over.

[Aionia Epitychia]

No amount of debt reduction will increase consumer demand.

No, but lower levels of debt will restore confidence in the fiscal sanity of the American government and inject a level of certainty into the economy. The debt is not something that we can simply ignore.

Obviously. But the only way to lower it is by increasing revenue on the uber-wealthy. Extend the Bush tax cuts for the middle and lower class Americans, raise the upper class tax levels to probably around 50%, and close the loopholes on the business doing very well while putting those funds into start up businesses. Keep funding for Medicare/caid, Social Security, and freeze military spending to FY 2010 levels.

[Free Soviets]

we should institutionalize the ability to have snap recall elections over policies that are seen as fundamentally going too far in more places. the wisconsin threshold seems about right (petition signed by 25% of the total vote in the district of the last election governor within 60s days of registering an intent to recall, etc), though i could see a case for making it more like 35% and 30 days, just to mean that people have to be really pissed as well as very organized/willing to throw money at it.

where's your mandate now?

[New Chalcedon]

*snip*

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/08/10/wisconsin.recall.elections/index.html?hpt=po_bn1

tl;dr The Wisconsin State Senate recall elections have resulted in the Democrats taking 2 of the 6 seats in Republican-leaning districts that they challenged them in. This leaves Democrats as the minority in the Wisconsin state senate.

While I'm pretty sure conservative pundits are going to take this and run with it, I'm pretty sure they're forgetting the simple fact that people were pissed enough to get 2 Republicans out of power (which, because one Republican in the State Senate is opposed to Walker's policies, means that his policies will be blocked until the recall elections for Governor in January). This is an undoubted victory for the progressive movement as a whole. We've managed to oust 2 politicians for their policies. That's a first.

That's not even close to it. Consider that each and every one of these seats elected a Republican in 2008 - a Democratic wave year.

They're not marginal districts. they're not normally Blue districts. These districts are blood-red - anywhere which elected a Republican in 2008 is, pretty much by definition, a Republican district/electorate. Every right-wing media group in America dropped huge amounts of money into ad buys in the contested seats, with observers estimating a conservative outspending - after it emerged that a number of right-wing groups refused to divulge how much they spent. Finally, Wisconsin's controversial (to say the least) voter ID laws depress turnout among lower-income, semi-indigent and minority groups - that is to say, Dem-leaning groups.

IOW, here are some of the factors which worked against the Dems:

(1) Millions in ad buys by ALEC, the Americans for Prosperity, and other right-wing astroturfing groups.
(2) Red districts - so red that, in a Democratic wave year, they voted in Republicans.
(3) Voter ID laws targeted at lower-income (aka Democrat-trending) demographics, depressing turnout among sections of the population friendly to the Dems.

Yet, after all of this, two of those safe-in-2008 districts still flipped. A victory? Not really - two isn't enough to flip the Senate. However, based on the fact that these results were obtained in Republican districts, Nate Silver perhaps puts it best (twitter):

Dems would be silly not proceed with Walker recall based on tonight. The results project to a toss-up if you extrapolate out statewide.

While there's a ray of hope for Walker (after all, four of the six Republican Senators survived, albeit all in Republican-friendly parts of Wisconsin), he must be sweating bullets. He will almost certainly become the first Governor of Wisconsin to suffer the indignity of being subjected to a recall election as soon as the Constitution allows it (Jan 2012); he may well become the first Governor of Wisconsin (third in US history behind Lynn Frazier (R-ND) and Gray Davis (D-CA)) to lose such an election.

[Shrillland]

we should institutionalize the ability to have snap recall elections over policies that are seen as fundamentally going too far in more places. the wisconsin threshold seems about right (petition signed by 25% of the total vote in the district of the last election governor within 60s days of registering an intent to recall, etc), though i could see a case for making it more like 35% and 30 days, just to mean that people have to be really pissed as well as very organized/willing to throw money at it.

where's your mandate now?

So convoluted it's impossible to actually have a recall(Only for Governor, no other offices). Here in Illinois you have to first get an affidavit of intent signed by the petitioner and then co-signed by at least 20 members of the House of Representatives(split evenly from each party), and 10 Senators(also split).

If that succeeds, then you can start gathering signatures. You need 15% of voters that voted in the last Election for Governor. But there's a caveat which says of that 15% at least 25 counties must be represented with 100 signatures each. This provision was put in so Chicago Democrats couldn't throw out any Republican they disagree with.

Then, if that is certified, a special election is called in 100 days. If a majority of people vote Yes, the Governor's recalled. Unlike what happened in California in 2003, only one Candidate can actually run for each party. If there are more than one, then the first Election would be a Primary, and the General would happen 60 days later. However, the Governor that's been recalled can be allowed to run for one of the major parties, so even if he's recalled, he could still be put back.

[Realisim]

I think the unions are loosing their touch
money cant buy you love after all....

[Shrillland]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/08/10/wisconsin.recall.elections/index.html?hpt=po_bn1

tl;dr The Wisconsin State Senate recall elections have resulted in the Democrats taking 2 of the 6 seats in Republican-leaning districts that they challenged them in. This leaves Democrats as the minority in the Wisconsin state senate.

While I'm pretty sure conservative pundits are going to take this and run with it, I'm pretty sure they're forgetting the simple fact that people were pissed enough to get 2 Republicans out of power (which, because one Republican in the State Senate is opposed to Walker's policies, means that his policies will be blocked until the recall elections for Governor in January). This is an undoubted victory for the progressive movement as a whole. We've managed to oust 2 politicians for their policies. That's a first.

That's not even close to it. Consider that each and every one of these seats elected a Republican in 2008 - a Democratic wave year.

They're not marginal districts. they're not normally Blue districts. These districts are blood-red - anywhere which elected a Republican in 2008 is, pretty much by definition, a Republican district/electorate. Every right-wing media group in America dropped huge amounts of money into ad buys in the contested seats, with observers estimating a conservative outspending - after it emerged that a number of right-wing groups refused to divulge how much they spent. Finally, Wisconsin's controversial (to say the least) voter ID laws depress turnout among lower-income, semi-indigent and minority groups - that is to say, Dem-leaning groups.

IOW, here are some of the factors which worked against the Dems:

(1) Millions in ad buys by ALEC, the Americans for Prosperity, and other right-wing astroturfing groups.
(2) Red districts - so red that, in a Democratic wave year, they voted in Republicans.
(3) Voter ID laws targeted at lower-income (aka Democrat-trending) demographics, depressing turnout among sections of the population friendly to the Dems.

Yet, after all of this, two of those safe-in-2008 districts still flipped. A victory? Not really - two isn't enough to flip the Senate. However, based on the fact that these results were obtained in Republican districts, Nate Silver perhaps puts it best (twitter):

Dems would be silly not proceed with Walker recall based on tonight. The results project to a toss-up if you extrapolate out statewide.

While there's a ray of hope for Walker (after all, four of the six Republican Senators survived, albeit all in Republican-friendly parts of Wisconsin), he must be sweating bullets. He will almost certainly become the first Governor of Wisconsin to suffer the indignity of being subjected to a recall election as soon as the Constitution allows it (Jan 2012); he may well become the first Governor of Wisconsin (third in US history behind Lynn Frazier (R-ND) and Gray Davis (D-CA)) to lose such an election.

As i said, the Dems are going to wait until they can have the Election on Election Day next year, at least that's what they're hinting towards. I always thought Lynn Frazier was in the Nonpartisan League, not belonging to either party.

[Greater Cabinda]

I think the unions are loosing their touch
money cant buy you love after all....

The unions were outspent.

[Free Soviets]

Unlike what happened in California in 2003, only one Candidate can actually run for each party. If there are more than one, then the first Election would be a Primary, and the General would happen 60 days later.

yeah, this is also vital. the california recall was stupid for being both too complex and too vote diluting. though the governator had it in the bag no matter what, really.


also it fundamentally makes more sense to have it in the wisconsin-style, where the incumbent is automatically the candidate in the election. as opposed to saying "do you want to recall this guy? ok, well even if not, who else would you like to hold the seat?"

it makes it that much more important to the party that their guys don't fuck up bad enough to be potentially recallable.

basically, i demand more policy accountability in a way that doesn't turn everything into a joke. pretty similar to the reason why i want to abolish the US senate - or at least the filibuster.

[Greed and Death]

Thats not entirely true. Wisconsin State Senator Dale Schultz (R-17) was the only Republican to vote against the Scott Walker bill. So if you call him a Democrat (for purposes of this discussion), and you assume that all remaining Democrats (16 of them now) oppose Walker and the other 16 Republicans vote for Walker, and you throw in Schultz as a Democratic wild card, the Senate-Walker relationship now swings towards the Democrats by a vote of 17-16. This would remain the case as long as the two remaing Democrats who are up for recall win their races (they are incumbents). So not all is lost for the Democratic Party, but they do have to rest their hopes on a man who sometimes opposes Walker and sometimes stays conservative.

Exactly. We can't put our faith in someone who sometimes opposes Walker, we needed someone who would oppose him all the time. And with the Majority comes the Committees, which means we will still see Committee votes that violate Open Meetings laws.

The Wisconsin supreme court said they do not.

[Demigueris]

Between any nation and their youth there is a sacred trust. It goes something like this: society at large ignores the hell out of youth, marginalizes them, and blames children for the failings of the generation that raised them. There are no multi-billion dollar PR campaigns to get youth into office. There are no representatives who identify their views. For them to vote, or not vote is the same because either way they will be largely ignored except as PR material.

On the other hand, youth expect when they grow up they will be afforded a place in society. And unlike say, some 50 year old baby-boomer whiners who have never before had to deal with a society that didn't bend over backwards to kiss their ass, when youth are sufficiently marginalized they don't waste their time complaining to people that won't listen or simply ignore them. They will tear your shit apart.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201189165143946889.html

Seriously, the issues of increasing wealth disparity require address because frankly, if it continues getting worse and remain unaddressed, governments can and will be toppled. As populations increase and developing countries increasingly stake their own claim on strategic resources that are increasingly difficult to access expect to see a lot more anti-government, anti-wealthy protests of increasing intensity.

Life sucks doesn't it? Well I am relatively youthful and I won't be asking for any special favors.

No one's asking for special favours. Arrangements between two parties need to be equitable, with both parties having means to address their respective greivances. If a system is setup which does not permit this, one shouldn't be surprised if individuals begin operating outside of it.

I brought this up, because frankly, I think people in the US - youth especially - need to be reminded that there's more to democracy than simply voting. Especially if you're youth, your interests are so far removed from the baby-boom generation that dominates the elections that even if you swing a vote here or there, you're still going to be ignored. Voting is not where your democratic voice is heard - that too, is life.

That doesn't mean you need to riot naked and throw bricks, but if you're concerned about these issues - you should probably start looking at ways to force the issue. Otherwise don't be surprised if nothing changes. And if nothing changes, don't be surprised if you get a bunch of disorganized anarchists and rioters tearing shit up and accomplishing nothing.

[You-Gi-Owe]

I think the unions are loosing their touch
money cant buy you love after all....

The unions were outspent.

I doubt it. from NewsMax, with my bold + underline:

Outside groups poured more than $25 million into the Wisconsin recall elections that ended with the Republicans winning four our of six contests Tuesday to retain control of the state Senate. Labor unions were the biggest donors on the Democratic side, while small government groups led the way for Republicans, The Washington Post reported.

[Farnhamia]

Life sucks doesn't it? Well I am relatively youthful and I won't be asking for any special favors.

No one's asking for special favours. Arrangements between two parties need to be equitable, with both parties having means to address their respective greivances. If a system is setup which does not permit this, one shouldn't be surprised if individuals begin operating outside of it.

I brought this up, because frankly, I think people in the US - youth especially - need to be reminded that there's more to democracy than simply voting. Especially if you're youth, your interests are so far removed from the baby-boom generation that dominates the elections that even if you swing a vote here or there, you're still going to be ignored. Voting is not where your democratic voice is heard - that too, is life.

That doesn't mean you need to riot naked and throw bricks, but if you're concerned about these issues - you should probably start looking at ways to force the issue. Otherwise don't be surprised if nothing changes. And if nothing changes, don't be surprised if you get a bunch of disorganized anarchists and rioters tearing shit up and accomplishing nothing.

The thing is, young people will not remain young and eventually their interests will become much the same as those of the baby-boom generation now. Never discount voting, it's the life-blood of the way the country is supposed to work. Even in a place where you know your candidate or issue is going to fail, voting is important because every vote for the opposition keeps the winners honest. And yes, organization is key. Doing nothing because "nothing makes any difference" is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Greater Cabinda]

The unions were outspent.

I doubt it. from NewsMax, with my bold + underline:

Outside groups poured more than $25 million into the Wisconsin recall elections that ended with the Republicans winning four our of six contests Tuesday to retain control of the state Senate. Labor unions were the biggest donors on the Democratic side, while small government groups led the way for Republicans, The Washington Post reported.

The indented are conservative SuperPACs.

They outspent the Democrats in the Wisconsin elections.

[Free Soviets]

The unions were outspent.

I doubt it. from NewsMax, with my bold + underline:

Outside groups poured more than $25 million into the Wisconsin recall elections that ended with the Republicans winning four our of six contests Tuesday to retain control of the state Senate. Labor unions were the biggest donors on the Democratic side, while small government groups led the way for Republicans, The Washington Post reported.

i really can't tell how much of you is just hack, and how much of you is reading comprehension problems.

[Greater Cabinda]

I doubt it. from NewsMax, with my bold + underline:

i really can't tell how much of you is just hack, and how much of you is reading comprehension problems.

I'm pretty sure he's all paid.

[Grave_n_idle]

The unions were outspent.

I doubt it. from NewsMax, with my bold + underline:

Outside groups poured more than $25 million into the Wisconsin recall elections that ended with the Republicans winning four our of six contests Tuesday to retain control of the state Senate. Labor unions were the biggest donors on the Democratic side, while small government groups led the way for Republicans, The Washington Post reported.

I invoke the Montoya Principle.

[The Anti-Cosmic Gods]

The unions were outspent.

I doubt it. from NewsMax, with my bold + underline:

Outside groups poured more than $25 million into the Wisconsin recall elections that ended with the Republicans winning four our of six contests Tuesday to retain control of the state Senate. Labor unions were the biggest donors on the Democratic side, while small government groups led the way for Republicans, The Washington Post reported.

Labor unions being the biggest donors on the Democratic side in no way, shape, or form even remotely hints that they weren't outspent.

Either you have some sort of learning disability that makes making connections really difficult for you, or you are easily the most intellectually dishonest person on NSG.

[Fal Dara in Shienar]

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/08/10/wisconsin.recall.elections/index.html?hpt=po_bn1

tl;dr The Wisconsin State Senate recall elections have resulted in the Democrats taking 2 of the 6 seats in Republican-leaning districts that they challenged them in. This leaves Democrats as the minority in the Wisconsin state senate.

While I'm pretty sure conservative pundits are going to take this and run with it, I'm pretty sure they're forgetting the simple fact that people were pissed enough to get 2 Republicans out of power (which, because one Republican in the State Senate is opposed to Walker's policies, means that his policies will be blocked until the recall elections for Governor in January). This is an undoubted victory for the progressive movement as a whole. We've managed to oust 2 politicians for their policies. That's a first.

That's not even close to it. Consider that each and every one of these seats elected a Republican in 2008 - a Democratic wave year.

They're not marginal districts. they're not normally Blue districts. These districts are blood-red - anywhere which elected a Republican in 2008 is, pretty much by definition, a Republican district/electorate. Every right-wing media group in America dropped huge amounts of money into ad buys in the contested seats, with observers estimating a conservative outspending - after it emerged that a number of right-wing groups refused to divulge how much they spent. Finally, Wisconsin's controversial (to say the least) voter ID laws depress turnout among lower-income, semi-indigent and minority groups - that is to say, Dem-leaning groups.

What are you smoking?

The 32nd district, nestled in the southwestern corner of the state, where Kapanke lost to state Rep. Jennifer Shilling is strongly Democratic, giving Justice Prosser only 42 percent of the vote, and John McCain 38 percent in 2008. I literally have no idea where you got this idea to the opposite. The other Democrat "victory" was in a district where Cain scored 47 percent of the vote there, and Prosser won 53 percent. Do those sound like anything you just described? I didn't think so, to say the least.

And your interpretations of what the victories mean is just... Bizarre. This was the Democrat's last chance before the redistricting to topple Republican districts. That they didn't basically insures that any State Senate victory will be a Democrat strategists' dream for quite a time longer. On a micro scale, looking at the two Democrat wins, one comes away with only the realization of how limited labor's power is. The 32nd, as stated above, is fairly strong Democrat district. He was going down no matter what. While the latter district, the 18th, could be best explained by the fact that Hopper (the incumbent) came within half a point of losing last time around. That is, before he ran away with his mistress, left his wife of (I want to say twenty-something years) and went to live in another district.

Of course, that's just some detail: the main point, which I can't stress enough: I literally have no idea where you got this idea of 'blood-red' Republican districts and frankly... No one else does. I'm surprised I am the first one to call you out on this bullshit. Of course, I'm not going to argue that the remaining four went Republican, to some degree, because they were already Republican but the idea that labor would spend any time at all trying to oust a Republican from a GOP stronghold is just... Laughable.

[New Chalcedon]

That's not even close to it. Consider that each and every one of these seats elected a Republican in 2008 - a Democratic wave year.

They're not marginal districts. they're not normally Blue districts. These districts are blood-red - anywhere which elected a Republican in 2008 is, pretty much by definition, a Republican district/electorate. Every right-wing media group in America dropped huge amounts of money into ad buys in the contested seats, with observers estimating a conservative outspending - after it emerged that a number of right-wing groups refused to divulge how much they spent. Finally, Wisconsin's controversial (to say the least) voter ID laws depress turnout among lower-income, semi-indigent and minority groups - that is to say, Dem-leaning groups.

What are you smoking?

The 32nd district, nestled in the southwestern corner of the state, where Kapanke lost to state Rep. Jennifer Shilling is strongly Democratic, giving Justice Prosser only 42 percent of the vote, and John McCain 38 percent in 2008. I literally have no idea where you got this idea to the opposite. The other Democrat "victory" was in a district where Cain scored 47 percent of the vote there, and Prosser won 53 percent. Though the latter district, the 18th, could be best explained by the fact that Hopper (the incumbent's opponent) came within half a point of losing last time around. That is, before he ran away with his mistress, left his wife of (I want to say twenty-something years) and went to live in another district. Even then, he only lost 1,200 votes.

I can't stress this enough: I literally have no idea where you got this idea of a 'blood-red' Republican district and frankly... No one else does. I'm surprised I am the first one to call you out on this bullshit. Of course, I'm not going to argue that the remaining four went Republican, to some degree, but the idea that labor would spend any time at all trying to oust a Republican from a GOP stronghold is just... Laughable.

Riiiiiiiiiight. Because, of course, the fact that they elected Republicans to the State Senate in a Democratic wave year makes then Democratic strongholds. Of course.

Whatever. You wanna ignore reality, go ahead & be my guest.

[Fal Dara in Shienar]

What are you smoking?

The 32nd district, nestled in the southwestern corner of the state, where Kapanke lost to state Rep. Jennifer Shilling is strongly Democratic, giving Justice Prosser only 42 percent of the vote, and John McCain 38 percent in 2008. I literally have no idea where you got this idea to the opposite. The other Democrat "victory" was in a district where Cain scored 47 percent of the vote there, and Prosser won 53 percent. Though the latter district, the 18th, could be best explained by the fact that Hopper (the incumbent's opponent) came within half a point of losing last time around. That is, before he ran away with his mistress, left his wife of (I want to say twenty-something years) and went to live in another district. Even then, he only lost 1,200 votes.

I can't stress this enough: I literally have no idea where you got this idea of a 'blood-red' Republican district and frankly... No one else does. I'm surprised I am the first one to call you out on this bullshit. Of course, I'm not going to argue that the remaining four went Republican, to some degree, but the idea that labor would spend any time at all trying to oust a Republican from a GOP stronghold is just... Laughable.

Riiiiiiiiiight. Because, of course, the fact that they elected Republicans to the State Senate in a Democratic wave year makes then Democratic strongholds. Of course.

Whatever. You wanna ignore reality, go ahead & be my guest.

Edited my post for clarity and a bit more detail ect ect...

Though, as far any of your replies:



Adorable, really, but I'm not wasting anymore time.

[Demigueris]

[quote="Farnhamia";p="6659942]The thing is, young people will not remain young and eventually their interests will become much the same as those of the baby-boom generation now. Never discount voting, it's the life-blood of the way the country is supposed to work. Even in a place where you know your candidate or issue is going to fail, voting is important because every vote for the opposition keeps the winners honest. And yes, organization is key. Doing nothing because "nothing makes any difference" is a self-fulfilling prophecy.[/quote]

That's part of the issue though, they can have the aspirations of their parents' generation but the means of doing so are, frankly speaking, impossible at a statistical level. There are no $36/hr jobs for unskilled workers out of highschool these days, it just isn't happening. Hell if you have a chemistry degree and you work in a lab, odds are you aren't breaking $20/hr until you've been there a few years and moved up a couple times. As for salary positions - they're not around in sufficient quantity to cover the individuals qualified to hold them.

As for discounting voting, my entire point was that the democracy = marking a piece of paper once every couple of years is a very facile notion of how democracy supposed to work. Democracy is about getting in the shit. Getting involved. Speaking out. Enacting civil disobedience, if necessary. It is not about waiting for old white guys to fix all your problems.

Frankly, that attitude is how this whole mess got started.

[Atlantian Empire]

This is a victory for the right and indicative of what is coming in 2012.

Don't get carried away, national is different from local. I can only hope 2012 is different and Republicans get destroyed.

[Greater Cabinda]

This is a victory for the right and indicative of what is coming in 2012.

Don't get carried away, national is different from local. I can only hope 2012 is different and Republicans get destroyed.

The recall was a virtual referendum on national policy, seeing as Wisconsin is the test-bed for Tea Party ideas.

[Atlantian Empire]

Don't get carried away, national is different from local. I can only hope 2012 is different and Republicans get destroyed.

The recall was a virtual referendum on national policy, seeing as Wisconsin is the test-bed for Tea Party ideas.

Voting dude, voting. Not policy, but how people will vote.