Updated Republican Nomination

[Terra Agora]

My main problem with GJ is he doesn't want to (or hasn't yet stated that he wants to) end the war on drugs. He says he wants to legalize weed and tax it. Which I am against. I dont think it should be taxed.

Then grow your own and let suckers buy commercial weed and pay tax on it.

True

[Alien Space Bats]

This is about as pathetic a field as it gets.

It's going to become even more pathetic when Sarah Palin announces that she's not going to run.

The Republicans won't nominate Mitt Romney unless every other candidate in the race falls flat on their faces - which is actually possible, considering the weakness of the field. If Romney does win, his inability to inspire Republicans will be a disaster for the ticket across the board, as conservatives tend to show their displeasure with the GOP by staying home.

Democrats, OTOH, will not be staying home, and that combination means that Romney and the rest of the GOP ticket would get wiped out in an utter landslide.

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Newt Gingrich isn't much better. For a moment - specifically, his first 48 hours - I thought he might be able to capture the imagination of a right wing that's desperately seeking someone to stop Romney from getting the nod. But then he went on Meet the Press and tried to be a responsible moderate. That was a huge mistake; even though he's been backpedaling while eating Cajun-style hot peppered crow, it's not enough. He'll never win the trust of the far right now, and the far right are the GOP's kingmakers these days.

So basically, he's done. His number right now reflect a lack of alternatives more than any real support. I don't expect him to survive New Hampshire.

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The "Draft Somebody, Anybody" is fast running out of hopefuls. Chris Christie says he won't run and he won't run, but that won't stop the GOP Draft Board from trying. When he finally makes it clear he's out, they'll turn to Jeb Bush, but Jeb isn't going to waste himself on a 2012 bid, either. At that point, the GOP establishment will finally move from the First Stage of Grief (Denial and Isolation) to the Second Stage of Grief (Anger), although they dare not direct that anger at the Tea-Party right, so the Beltway Press Machine will probably get spun some tale about how the media's tendency to tear people down has forced all these Good Republicans out of consideration. That, of course, is not it - but it should make a good story for a week or two.

After Anger comes the Third Stage of Grief (Bargaining), which will involve trying to persuade the far-right to tone it down a bit so that "disaffected Democrats" and "moderate independents" can be pried away from Obama. I'm going to laugh my balls off at that particular negotiation, and wait for the Fourth Stage of Grief (Depression) to set in...

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Tim Pawlenty. Yeah. Not much to say here, really. T-Paw wouldn't be half as pathetic if he hadn't spent the last six months trying to reinvent himself as something else. I'm still thinking that Pawlenty is running for the VP slot, and I'm still thinking that he's going to get it (unless Michelle Bachman secures the nomination), but the weakness of the field is such that Pawlenty could actually manage to win the nomination in the same way Romney could - if everybody else just drops dead. Pawlenty's moment will come sometime after Romney's nomination melts down (which will begin in South Carolina; if the GOP were sane, Michigan would kill him, but it's a sign of how crazy the GOP is this year that Romney's infamous "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" editorial back in 2008 isn't going to hurt him in the Michigan primary [because Michigan Republicans actually think that letting GM go under somehow would have been good for the State; that should tell you something about the degree to which the local GOP here is out of touch with the populace!]). No, I expect that Super Tuesday will be his undoing, as the majority of GOP delegates from that huge harvest end up going into the "uncommitted" bucket.

Still, there's a remote chance T-Paw might win the nomination, followed by an even more remote chance of him winning. I can't visualize such a scenario, but I'm sure I'll be forced to imagine weirder things before this campaign season is over.

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I'm sorry, but I just cannot conceive of Ron Paul winning the nomination. He's just too... too... too...

Yeah. That.

'Nuff said.

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Gary Johnson, John Huntsman, Herman Cain, and the rest just do not have the money or the organization to pull off something as complex as winning a nomination. Huntsman comes the closest, but he suffers the same problems Romney does, plus the added problem of essentially being reliant on the existing GOP establishment to pull him through. Well, if they were going to pick him as their White Knight, they'd have done that months ago instead of wooing Mitch Daniels, and then chasing Chris Christie, and then...

No, this isn't going to be the year some really dark horse won the nomination, because the days when really dark horses could win the nomination ended a long time ago.

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That leaves Michelle Bachman, and something tells me - as insane as it sounds - that she's the one who's probably going to take the brass ring. She can win Iowa if she's willing to commit the resources and make the effort; because Romney is considered a "favorite son" in New Hampshire, she gets a pass there, allowing her to set up an ambush in South Carolina, which is an ideal State for her to pull such an ambush off. From there, all she has to do is compete in Michigan (which she probably can do if she can grab the Tea-Party right and make it her own) to be Romney's equal; from there, it's a matter of letting the also-rans fold, grabbing their cards, and then watching as Romney's campaign self-destructs.

The problem is that Bachman can't possibly beat Obama in November of 2012. The best she can do is get enough Republicans to turn out to save the party from an utter disaster across the rest of the ticket. To be honest, as counter-intuitive as this may be, she may well be the best person to do that. That flies in the face of the Conventional Wisdom, which says that running the most radical Republican since Barry Goldwater against a sitting President is suicide, but the old political rules don't apply any more, so doubling down on a hard-right candidate who can pretend to be less crazy than she is may actually succeed in limited the Republicans' losses.

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In the final analysis, while no Presidential contest is certain, 2012 is shaping up to be a very, very bad year for the GOP - and a very good year for the Democrats. How good a year remains to be seen, and there's always room for the Democrats to screw things up (especially because screwing things up is something the Democratic Party does exceptionally well). But barring unforeseen events and calamitous mistakes, I think Obama is likely to come back in January of 2013 to a Democratic Congress - although not a filibuster-proof one, given that the Senate is probably the one place the GOP has some real opportunities.

[Soviet Haaregrad]

Then grow your own and let suckers buy commercial weed and pay tax on it.

True

That's the main reason I always argue for 'legalize it, and tax it'. As long as you can't be forced to only buy from a source that's forced to charge tax on it you have the best of both worlds, lazy people can buy it from a store, have the taxes collected on it go towards something else (even reducing taxes in other areas, and it's not like taxing it is any morally better/worse than collecting taxes in other ways) and those who don't approve of taxes being collected on it, or who wish to save money, or who would just prefer can grow it for themselves.

[Wamitoria]

the Senate is probably the one place the GOP has some real opportunities.

With the whole, "kill medicare" thing, those opportunities are fast eroding.

[North Americax]

Rep Ron Paul 50%
WOW

[North Americax]

Need more votes

[Christian Germany]

I guess Ron Paul is going ro win

[Fnordgasm 5]

Which one supports a ban on talking about elections which are 18 months away? Because I would support him.

[CRC Banking]

Which one supports a ban on talking about elections which are 18 months away? Because I would support him.

That would violate free speech tard

[Ashmoria]

*shudder*

maybe tim pawlenty wouldnt be the worst thing ever. as long as no one wants a nominee with personality.

[Greater Tezdrian]

None of them, they're all batshit insane.

[Coffee Cakes]

WTF?!!

How does EVERY GOP poll here forget Herman Cain?

The Cain Train is rolling, whether people like it or not.

[Markanite]

I'm surprised Palin isn't on this list, I think her recent actions have sorta stated shes looking to go for it.

[CRC Banking]

WTF?!!

How does EVERY GOP poll here forget Herman Cain?

The Cain Train is rolling, whether people like it or not.

Herman Cain already said he would put a muslim in his cabinet. He is a warmonger flip flopper. RP 12!

[Fnordgasm 5]

Which one supports a ban on talking about elections which are 18 months away? Because I would support him.

That would violate free speech tard

So which one then?

[The Cat-Tribe]

Bachmann's the only one likely to win on your list.

Bachmann is a old cunt, hopefully the rest of the GOP will pick up on that.

I strongly loathe Bachmann, but is language that is beneath even her really necessary? Your post speaks more about your character than hers.

[Coffee Cakes]

WTF?!!

How does EVERY GOP poll here forget Herman Cain?

The Cain Train is rolling, whether people like it or not.

Herman Cain already said he would put a muslim in his cabinet. He is a warmonger flip flopper. RP 12!

Eh, wot?

[Greater Tezdrian]

Which one supports a ban on talking about elections which are 18 months away? Because I would support him.

That would violate free speech tard

(a. Don't insult people.
(b. They were being sarcastic,

[The Cat-Tribe]

BTW, as a Democrat, I love this list. President Obama's re-election is practically guaranteed!

[Greater Tezdrian]

WTF?!!

How does EVERY GOP poll here forget Herman Cain?

The Cain Train is rolling, whether people like it or not.

Herman Cain already said he would put a muslim in his cabinet. He is a warmonger flip flopper. RP 12!

And what is wrong with putting a Muslim in Cabinet?

[Terra Agora]

Bachmann is a old cunt, hopefully the rest of the GOP will pick up on that.

I strongly loathe Bachmann, but is language that is beneath even her really necessary? Your post speaks more about your character than hers.

Yes its necessary.
Dont like it? Then ignore it.

[North Americax]

Herman Cain already said he would put a muslim in his cabinet. He is a warmonger flip flopper. RP 12!

And what is wrong with putting a Muslim in Cabinet?

Um... You cannot give muslims power... it just never worked out and never will look at the middle east. The only reason muslims are not killing us here in the U.S is because they are still the minority. Do you think they would allow Christians,Atheist, and whatever wasn't their religion if they were the majority here?

[Alixanderia]

BTW, as a Democrat, I love this list. President Obama's re-election is practically guaranteed!

Hopefully!

If Bachmann gets it by some terrible, terrible chance, then... I say everyone, bomb America before the suffering begins! D8

[Greater Tezdrian]

And what is wrong with putting a Muslim in Cabinet?

Um... You cannot give muslims power... it just never worked out and never will look at the middle east. The only reason muslims are killing us here in the U.S is because they are still the minority. Do you think they would allow Christians,Atheist, and whatever wasn't their religion if they were the majority here?

That statement exudes stupidity. There are Muslims at all levels of government including the Senate and House of Representatives. And yet we are not ruled through Sharia law. In addition to that, outlawing other forms of religion would be impossible as it is unconstitutional. Try again.

[North Americax]

BTW, as a Democrat, I love this list. President Obama's re-election is practically guaranteed!

Hopefully!

If Bachmann gets it by some terrible, terrible chance, then... I say everyone, bomb America before the suffering begins! D8

No people, The "smart" democrats if there are any will realize that the unemployment, gas prices, wars, economy wasn't fixed with obama