UK Politics Thread: The Mandelson Effect

[The Huskar Social Union]

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 34% (+2)
RFM: 18% (+1)
LAB: 14% (-6)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)

Regional:
SNP: 28% (-1)
RFM: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (+6)
LAB: 14% (-7)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)
ALBA: 1% (-2)

Via @YouGov / Scottish Elections Study, 11-18 Feb. Changes w/ 13-19 Jun.

Seat Model:

SNP: 55 (-9)
RFM: 22 (+22)
GRN: 18 (+10)
LAB: 14 (-8)
LDM: 11 (+7)
CON: 9 (-22)

Changes w/ 2021.

[Ostroeuropa]

Since when is israel weak?

name me a good reason we should pick a side in the israel-iran squabble. They both dont give a shit about christians or britain

Have you made your choice yet? As far as I know, Great Britain is not a party to this conflict.

We have just agreed to allow the USA to use our bases to attack Iranian missile sites.

[Tyson Fury]

Have you made your choice yet? As far as I know, Great Britain is not a party to this conflict.

We have just agreed to allow the USA to use our bases to attack Iranian missile sites.

why are getting involved, we got problems at home. I dont give a toss, me andnmost British included. This war is just gonna bring in more migrants

[Ostroeuropa]

We have just agreed to allow the USA to use our bases to attack Iranian missile sites.

why are getting involved, we got problems at home. I dont give a toss, me andnmost British included. This war is just gonna bring in more migrants

Because Iran is launching missiles at a bunch of our allies and at civilian infrastructure when there's tens of thousands of our citizens in the region.

[Neu California]

Since when is israel weak?

name me a good reason we should pick a side in the israel-iran squabble. They both dont give a shit about christians or britain

Skipping over your "Christians" remark, Israel is one of the few democratic countries in the Middle East. It enjoys a free press and an open, free society that (mostly) doesn't oppress its citizens. Its far from perfect, but it should be supported.

No it doesn't

[Slembana]

Skipping over your "Christians" remark, Israel is one of the few democratic countries in the Middle East. It enjoys a free press and an open, free society that (mostly) doesn't oppress its citizens. Its far from perfect, but it should be supported.

Israel is a democracy, until you realise that 5 million of the people under its rule are disenfranchised, suffer from daily violence, and regularly pushed out of their homes, under one of, if not the most, oppressive regimes of the 21st century. It's an apartheid state, founded on the basis of ethnic cleansing and backed by the world's strongest superpower. All in the name of "democracy", "counter-terrorism", and one of the most brutal ideologies of the modern age: Zionism.

This. Israel is at the very best a highly flawed democracy.

[Ostroeuropa]

Israel is a democracy, until you realise that 5 million of the people under its rule are disenfranchised, suffer from daily violence, and regularly pushed out of their homes, under one of, if not the most, oppressive regimes of the 21st century. It's an apartheid state, founded on the basis of ethnic cleansing and backed by the world's strongest superpower. All in the name of "democracy", "counter-terrorism", and one of the most brutal ideologies of the modern age: Zionism.

This. Israel is at the very best a highly flawed democracy.

Does Israel impose Israeli law on palestinians? Tax them? conscript them?

[Tyson Fury]

why are getting involved, we got problems at home. I dont give a toss, me andnmost British included. This war is just gonna bring in more migrants

Because Iran is launching missiles at a bunch of our allies and at civilian infrastructure when there's tens of thousands of our citizens in the region.

So called allies, which got themselves in this mess. Not our problem

[Ostroeuropa]

Because Iran is launching missiles at a bunch of our allies and at civilian infrastructure when there's tens of thousands of our citizens in the region.

So called allies, which got themselves in this mess. Not our problem

If it were just the USA being bombed you'd have a point. But it's a wide range of our allies in the region who did not initiate this attack. We also have our citizens and their safety to consider.

[Greater Britannian Realm]

So called allies, which got themselves in this mess. Not our problem

If it were just the USA being bombed you'd have a point. But it's a wide range of our allies in the region who did not initiate this attack. We also have our citizens and their safety to consider.

They have also reportedly fired at Cyprus which has two british sovereign base areas.
According to the minister of defence.

[Slembana]

This. Israel is at the very best a highly flawed democracy.

Does Israel impose Israeli law on palestinians? Tax them? conscript them?

The West Bank is under Israeli military occupation. Palestinians are tried at military courts. Arab Israelis are treated in the same way in which African-Americans are treated - that is, poorly.

[Ostroeuropa]

Does Israel impose Israeli law on palestinians? Tax them? conscript them?

The West Bank is under Israeli military occupation. Palestinians are tried at military courts. Arab Israelis are treated in the same way in which African-Americans are treated - that is, poorly.

Racism does not make a country a flawed democracy in the sense that we're talking. As for the west bank, military law in militarily occupied areas is fairly normal. The length of this occupation is abnormal, however, to claim Israel is a flawed democracy you would have to make the argument that the west bank is a part of Israel either de facto or de jure. De jure is obviously out of the window, so is it de facto part of Israel in your opinion?

[Stellar Colonies]

UK Allows US Use of Bases to Destroy Iranian Missile Depots (Bloomberg)
By Lucy White and Alex Wickham

The UK has allowed the US to make use of British military bases for the specific purpose of destroying Iranian missile depots, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.

Britain accepted a request from the US to use its bases “for that specific and limited defensive purpose,” Starmer said in a video posted on X late Sunday.

“We have taken the decision to accept this request, to prevent Iran firing missiles across the region killing innocent civilians and putting British lives at risk,” Starmer said. “We are not joining these strikes but we will continue our defensive actions in the region.”

That included permission for the US to use the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, England, according to a source familiar with the conversations.

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Starmer made clear that the UK hasn’t been involved in the strikes. Defence Secretary John Healey declined to say in interviews on Sunday whether the government views the attacks as compliant with international law.

That stance drew criticism from Starmer’s political rivals. Priti Patel, the Conservative Party’s foreign affairs spokesperson, told the BBC she found it “absolutely astonishing” that Starmer hadn’t given more support.

Richard Tice, the business spokesperson for Reform UK, said Starmer had “kowtowed to the Islamist extremists by not giving that support.”

Starmer said there were at least 200,000 British citizens in the Middle East and that Iran’s strikes were increasingly “reckless.”
“Our partners in the Gulf have asked us to do more to defend them, and it’s my duty to protect British lives,” he said, adding that British jets were already in the air and had successfully intercepted Iranian strikes.

“But the only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source, in their storage depots or the launchers which are used to fire the missiles.”

Starmer said the UK’s actions were in accordance with international law and that he would publish the UK’s legal advice.

...
Britain accepted a request from the US to use its bases “for that specific and limited defensive purpose,” Starmer said in a video posted on X late Sunday.

“We have taken the decision to accept this request, to prevent Iran firing missiles across the region killing innocent civilians and putting British lives at risk,” Starmer said. “We are not joining these strikes but we will continue our defensive actions in the region.”

That included permission for the US to use the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, England, according to a source familiar with the conversations.
...

[Crysuko]

UK Allows US Use of Bases to Destroy Iranian Missile Depots (Bloomberg)
By Lucy White and Alex Wickham

The UK has allowed the US to make use of British military bases for the specific purpose of destroying Iranian missile depots, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.

Britain accepted a request from the US to use its bases “for that specific and limited defensive purpose,” Starmer said in a video posted on X late Sunday.

“We have taken the decision to accept this request, to prevent Iran firing missiles across the region killing innocent civilians and putting British lives at risk,” Starmer said. “We are not joining these strikes but we will continue our defensive actions in the region.”

That included permission for the US to use the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, England, according to a source familiar with the conversations.

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Starmer made clear that the UK hasn’t been involved in the strikes. Defence Secretary John Healey declined to say in interviews on Sunday whether the government views the attacks as compliant with international law.

That stance drew criticism from Starmer’s political rivals. Priti Patel, the Conservative Party’s foreign affairs spokesperson, told the BBC she found it “absolutely astonishing” that Starmer hadn’t given more support.

Richard Tice, the business spokesperson for Reform UK, said Starmer had “kowtowed to the Islamist extremists by not giving that support.”

Starmer said there were at least 200,000 British citizens in the Middle East and that Iran’s strikes were increasingly “reckless.”
“Our partners in the Gulf have asked us to do more to defend them, and it’s my duty to protect British lives,” he said, adding that British jets were already in the air and had successfully intercepted Iranian strikes.

“But the only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source, in their storage depots or the launchers which are used to fire the missiles.”

Starmer said the UK’s actions were in accordance with international law and that he would publish the UK’s legal advice.

...
Britain accepted a request from the US to use its bases “for that specific and limited defensive purpose,” Starmer said in a video posted on X late Sunday.

“We have taken the decision to accept this request, to prevent Iran firing missiles across the region killing innocent civilians and putting British lives at risk,” Starmer said. “We are not joining these strikes but we will continue our defensive actions in the region.”

That included permission for the US to use the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, England, according to a source familiar with the conversations.
...

And we get dragged into another unpopular war because Washington decided to start shit for spurious reasons.

[Greater Britannian Realm]

And we get dragged into another unpopular war because Sashington decided to start shit for spurious reasons.

What is this the 18th u turn now?

[Slembana]

UK Allows US Use of Bases to Destroy Iranian Missile Depots (Bloomberg)
By Lucy White and Alex Wickham

The UK has allowed the US to make use of British military bases for the specific purpose of destroying Iranian missile depots, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.

Britain accepted a request from the US to use its bases “for that specific and limited defensive purpose,” Starmer said in a video posted on X late Sunday.

“We have taken the decision to accept this request, to prevent Iran firing missiles across the region killing innocent civilians and putting British lives at risk,” Starmer said. “We are not joining these strikes but we will continue our defensive actions in the region.”

That included permission for the US to use the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, England, according to a source familiar with the conversations.

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Starmer made clear that the UK hasn’t been involved in the strikes. Defence Secretary John Healey declined to say in interviews on Sunday whether the government views the attacks as compliant with international law.

That stance drew criticism from Starmer’s political rivals. Priti Patel, the Conservative Party’s foreign affairs spokesperson, told the BBC she found it “absolutely astonishing” that Starmer hadn’t given more support.

Richard Tice, the business spokesperson for Reform UK, said Starmer had “kowtowed to the Islamist extremists by not giving that support.”

Starmer said there were at least 200,000 British citizens in the Middle East and that Iran’s strikes were increasingly “reckless.”
“Our partners in the Gulf have asked us to do more to defend them, and it’s my duty to protect British lives,” he said, adding that British jets were already in the air and had successfully intercepted Iranian strikes.

“But the only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source, in their storage depots or the launchers which are used to fire the missiles.”

Starmer said the UK’s actions were in accordance with international law and that he would publish the UK’s legal advice.

...
Britain accepted a request from the US to use its bases “for that specific and limited defensive purpose,” Starmer said in a video posted on X late Sunday.

“We have taken the decision to accept this request, to prevent Iran firing missiles across the region killing innocent civilians and putting British lives at risk,” Starmer said. “We are not joining these strikes but we will continue our defensive actions in the region.”

That included permission for the US to use the Diego Garcia base on the Chagos islands and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, England, according to a source familiar with the conversations.
...

Of fucking course.

I’m tired of this country constantly following the US into war.

[Crysuko]

And we get dragged into another unpopular war because Sashington decided to start shit for spurious reasons.

What is this the 18th u turn now?

Heartbreaking: your ideological opponent said something amusing.

[Tyson Fury]

So called allies, which got themselves in this mess. Not our problem

If it were just the USA being bombed you'd have a point. But it's a wide range of our allies in the region who did not initiate this attack. We also have our citizens and their safety to consider.

These allies are not western countries, and have been going back and forth with iran in their inter ethnic squabble for decades, on top of that they wouldnt come to the aid of Britain if we were attacked by russia (in fact many of them have good relations with russia) so they are not our allies.

British citizens shouldnt have gone there if it is dangerous. But best thing we can do is evacuate them, not get involved in some war that doesnt help Britain.

Seeing boomers fall for the same bullshit prior to the iraq war is fucking tiresome. Cant they go and fight the war instead of sending our soldiers. Make starmer and his cabinet go to the middle east to fight iran, they need some exercise anyway

[Saor Alba]

I think if you conduct an election campaign in foreign languages while waving foreign flags and focusing on a specific foreign ethnoreligious conflict then it is reasonable to say that your campaign is sectarian in nature. Whether that is a good or bad thing is down to individual judgement. Some - such as the not-far-right Francis Fukuyama - would say that sectarianism is a natural phenomenon in elections held in diverse jurisdctions where there is no strong civic identity.

Has he emerged from the slab of Carbonite he froze himself in 1992 to retract his claim that "history has ended"?

Why would he retract it? Was he wrong? For reference, I was citing Political Order and Political Decay and not End of History in any case. Outside of his Hegelian philosophy, Fukuyama is a respected and prolific scholar of democracy and institutions.

1953 UK-American coup that overthrew Mosaddegh?

I don't disagree that we should rise above tit-for-tat revenge but I take issue with the description of Mossadegh's removal as a coup. My understanding is that a coup is necessarily illegal, but Mossadegh was appointed and removed in accordance with the constitution. The power to issue a farman dismissing a PM was part of the 1906 constitution. We certainly encouraged it, but the Shah did not break any law, unlike Mossadegh who illegally manipulated the 1952 elections and illegally dismissed the Senate - this final act was what led to his removal. His authoritarian tendencies aside, it is no surprise that the Shah removed him. He pardoned the assassin of PM Razmara and his "nationalisation" destroyed the economy. Unsurprisingly when General Zahedi entered Tehran, he was met with widespread public support.

The 1953 "coup" was a spat between an authoritarian monarch acting in accordance with the constitution and a corrupt Prime Minister acting outwith the law.

[Tyson Fury]

And we get dragged into another unpopular war because Washington decided to start shit for spurious reasons.

Well what do you expect from starmer he is service to the epstein mafia

[Soranis]

[
The 1953 "coup" was a spat between an authoritarian monarch acting in accordance with the constitution and a corrupt Prime Minister acting outwith the law.

Today I learned wanting to nationalize your oil industry and take it out of foreign hands is a bad thing. Who knew!

The 1953 coup was a result of the British elite having a humongous temper tantrum because they couldn't exploit Iranian oil reserves as effectively since they were a declining power, so they convinced Eisenhower and the CIA that Mossadegh was trying to turn Iran communist and had him couped. This is a widely accepted consensus on the event.

[Celritannia]

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 34% (+2)
RFM: 18% (+1)
LAB: 14% (-6)
GRN: 11% (+2)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)

Regional:
SNP: 28% (-1)
RFM: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (+6)
LAB: 14% (-7)
CON: 10% (=)
LDM: 10% (=)
ALBA: 1% (-2)

Via @YouGov / Scottish Elections Study, 11-18 Feb. Changes w/ 13-19 Jun.

Seat Model:

SNP: 55 (-9)
RFM: 22 (+22)
GRN: 18 (+10)
LAB: 14 (-8)
LDM: 11 (+7)
CON: 9 (-22)

Changes w/ 2021.

Is this plus 7 or minus 7 for the Lib dems? It is both red and has a plus sign.

I am.confused Huskar

[The Notorious Mad Jack]

Cant they go and fight the war instead of sending our soldiers.

Just as a note, our soldiers aren't going over there and fighting in the Iran currently. Your grasp on reality seems to grow more tenuous by the day.

[Shamhnan Insir]

Of fucking course.

I’m tired of this country constantly following the US into war.

Would have stayed out until a drone hit Cyprus.
That tells you two things.
One - Even though we weren't in it before, we were attacked which changes the rhetoric regarding involvement.
Two - For all the billions burned on moving the US war machine into the area and having overlapping layers of supposed highly advanced air threat detection, it seems the Americans and Israel can't contain what they started.

So we're not following, we're being dragged by the fucking idiots that sit in Tel Aviv and Washington.

[Ariddia]

Via @YouGov / Scottish Elections Study, 11-18 Feb. Changes w/ 13-19 Jun.

Seat Model:

SNP: 55 (-9)
RFM: 22 (+22)
GRN: 18 (+10)
LAB: 14 (-8)
LDM: 11 (+7)
CON: 9 (-22)

Changes w/ 2021.

Thanks. It seems to confirm the recent by-election wasn't a fluke, with the Greens overtaking Labour again, and Reform (eugh) doing well even in Scotland.

With 65 seats needed for a majority, this would seem to mean either

- yet another SNP minority government, dependent on bill-by-bill negotiation with any of the three progressive parties, or

- yet another SNP/ Green coalition, if they can make it work this time, or

- an SNP / Labour or SNP / LibDem coalition, but that's very unlikely to be palatable to Labour or to the Liberal Democrats.