NationStates

Bananaistan wrote:

Magnum Exitium wrote:Well, normally I'd support the National Party, as they are closer to my trashy right-wing system, but as they're not putting out many candidates, I'd say that Fianna Fail is the way to go. Their commitment to the Irish language is pretty admirable. I don't want to see the language of my ancestors die off, even if it won't affect me over here in America. I think my only issue would be with their economic interventionism, but nothing's perfect, and getting Leo out is the way to go.

Thankfully the lunatic right wing fringe has no hope of ever taking off in Ireland.

If this is accurate (which by all accounts it couldn't be, it is Wikipedia), I fail to see anything absolutely insane, excluding the racial profiling thing. Frankly, I'd rather have a nationalist party with a few issues than someone like Leo, who by all accounts seems to be attempting to prove that the people who peddle the "white replacement" crap are correct. When you're setting quotas for the number of refugees to take, I start finding major issues.

Bananaistan wrote:

Marxist Germany wrote:Hence why I said i was disappointed to see Renua poll so low, they are the right wing party that Ireland needs as Fianna Fail is not greatly different from FG, however, Fianna Fail is different enough to make them slightly better than FG.

Renua never had a chance and we need them no more than you'd need a hole in your head. They had one councillor elected last year, and he bailed out a week later because they were so crappy. They will end up as a minor footnote in history just like every other hard-right, lunatic fringe party ever.

I am pretty sure you have not even been to their website, otherwise you would have known that they are not hard right and quite on par with the GOP in the US.

Marxist Germany wrote:

Bananaistan wrote:
Renua never had a chance and we need them no more than you'd need a hole in your head. They had one councillor elected last year, and he bailed out a week later because they were so crappy. They will end up as a minor footnote in history just like every other hard-right, lunatic fringe party ever.

I am pretty sure you have not even been to their website, otherwise you would have known that they are not hard right and quite on par with the GOP in the US.

The Republicans are hard right. FF and FG are the centre right ones in Ireland.

Philjia wrote:

Marxist Germany wrote:I am pretty sure you have not even been to their website, otherwise you would have known that they are not hard right and quite on par with the GOP in the US.

The Republicans are hard right. FF and FG are the centre right ones in Ireland.

Republicans are diverse from hard right-wingers to moderates, thanks to America’s two-party system. In any other country, both the major parties would be split up into 2 or 3 different parties

Marxist Germany wrote:

Philjia wrote:1. Fianna Fail helped them do it
2. Fianna Fail's policies aren't meaningfully distinct from Fine Gael so the problems will persist

Hence why I said i was disappointed to see Renua poll so low, they are the right wing party that Ireland needs as Fianna Fail is not greatly different from FG, however, Fianna Fail is different enough to make them slightly better than FG.

Renua polls so low because it is barely still in existence: No leader, no elected representatives, it has no relevance in Irish politics since Lucinda retired following her defeat in DBS. I was surprised to find out it even put forward 11 candidates this time around. People won't vote for a party they know nothing about, has no actual real representation at any level. I wouldn't call it a party, I'd call it a fad. Much like NP/IPP/etc. I don't see how anyone could support a party that virtually doesn't exist.

Marxist Germany wrote:

Bananaistan wrote:
Renua never had a chance and we need them no more than you'd need a hole in your head. They had one councillor elected last year, and he bailed out a week later because they were so crappy. They will end up as a minor footnote in history just like every other hard-right, lunatic fringe party ever.

I am pretty sure you have not even been to their website, otherwise you would have known that they are not hard right and quite on par with the GOP in the US.

I took one look at their website and saw "RENUA support the existing and effective ‘Stay Safe’ programme in schools. We reject plans to introduce compulsory and totally inappropriate ideology-based LGBTQ, porn literacy and pro-abortion sex education into Irish primary and secondary schools.". In the Irish political landscape, that's hard right, if not far-right.

WHich Candidate now has the guide up for the General, though Sinn Fein still hasn't participated so it's not possible for them to match anyone with the party: http://www.whichcandidate.ie/voters/129635?constituency_id=93

I chose Dublin Central and got an 85% match with the Greens myself, 74% for Labour, and 72% for the Social Democrats and Solidarity.

Socialist Mercanda wrote:I took one look at their website and saw "RENUA support the existing and effective ‘Stay Safe’ programme in schools. We reject plans to introduce compulsory and totally inappropriate ideology-based LGBTQ, porn literacy and pro-abortion sex education into Irish primary and secondary schools.". In the Irish political landscape, that's hard right, if not far-right.

Keep in mind that same-sex marriage was legalised in 2013 and abortion in 2019. Suddenly, what was normal 7 years ago is now far-right.

Magnum Exitium wrote:

Bananaistan wrote:Thankfully the lunatic right wing fringe has no hope of ever taking off in Ireland.

If this is accurate (which by all accounts it couldn't be, it is Wikipedia), I fail to see anything absolutely insane, excluding the racial profiling thing. Frankly, I'd rather have a nationalist party with a few issues than someone like Leo, who by all accounts seems to be attempting to prove that the people who peddle the "white replacement" crap are correct. When you're setting quotas for the number of refugees to take, I start finding major issues.

What issues, exactly?

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Marxist Germany wrote:

Socialist Mercanda wrote:I took one look at their website and saw "RENUA support the existing and effective ‘Stay Safe’ programme in schools. We reject plans to introduce compulsory and totally inappropriate ideology-based LGBTQ, porn literacy and pro-abortion sex education into Irish primary and secondary schools.". In the Irish political landscape, that's hard right, if not far-right.

Keep in mind that same-sex marriage was legalised in 2013 and abortion in 2019.

Abortion wasn't legalised in 2019, it was already legal.

Suddenly, what was normal 7 years ago is now far-right.

It was far-right then too. That's why the Yes campaign had such widespread support and the No campaign didn't.

The Blaatschapen wrote:https://www.newsweek.com/woman-running-against-her-partner-election-says-its-like-im-badly-written-rom-com-1484308

Well, I suppose it must happen every so often.

Andrew Neil, a very intelligent man, comes off with an utterly stupid and wrong take on Fine Gael and why they are losing points in the polls

No Andrew, its not because of an "Anti British" ticket, which doesnt fucking exist by the way, its to do with real life problems, like a housing crisis for example, or you know, rising homelessness, and other actual things that exist.

Whats next, the Tories are anti business?

And as we can see the biggest swing is for Sinn Fein, the famously pro-british Irish Political party.

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Andrew Neil, a very intelligent man, comes off with an utterly stupid and wrong take on Fine Gael and why they are losing points in the polls

No Andrew, its not because of an "Anti British" ticket, which doesnt fucking exist by the way, its to do with real life problems, like a housing crisis for example, or you know, rising homelessness, and other actual things that exist.

Whats next, the Tories are anti business?

And as we can see the biggest swing is for Sinn Fein, the famously pro-british Irish Political party.

Fine Gael's entire schtick is that they're meant to be friendlier to the UK.

I was quite wary of the Panelbase poll that showed Sinn Fein ahead of Fine Gael given it is the first time this company had ever done a poll in Ireland, however leaks and rumours on Twitter suggest the RedC poll will show that not only has Sinn Fein surpassed FG, but is neck-and-neck with Fianna Fáil. Seems as though Fine Gael are in for a battering this election!

Of course, Sinn Fein can only fly so high. Fielding 42 candidates, the maximum seats it can win are... 42. Which is less than what Fianna Fáil won in the last election.

My current prediction stands that FF will emerge as the largest party, but I’m dubious as to who will win second place. In my heart I feel it will be Fine Gael, but it could be very close. Another seismic change in the Irish political landscape in a little less than a decade, after the decisive 2011 victory for Fine Gael and Labour surpassing FF as the nation’s second party. A title it lost five years later. So who knows ! Maybe this SF surge is just a blip in Irish political history. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have proved themselves to be resilient throughout the decades, and I don’t doubt that they may very well rebound to their past prestige in the future.

It looks like the only viable coalition must include two of FF/FG/SF. Both FF and FG are doubling down on refusing to talk to SF. So only an FF/FG government looks likely. SF then become the main opposition party. Such a government would need to actually sort out a lot of problems for the electorate not to turn further to SF at the following election, while it finishes one of FF/FG in the long term and they actually become FFG.

If FF/FG think of not doing business with each other and both continue to refuse SF, you'd then have another election shortly thereafter while FG remain as the caretaker government, and as the face of all the problems that seem to matter in this election. FF don't suddenly find competent front benchers, therefore Martin continues to stink up the national airwaves, while the electorate would likely further punish them for forcing an election so soon. In such a scenario, SF run more candidates and get more seats, and would end up being the biggest party.

Both scenarios are horrifying for FF and FG, as is their total first preference vote share dropping further below 50%. I'm delighted for them.

Ofc the polls might be wildly wrong. I'm concerned that FF is under-polling. Prior to the 2011 presidential election, many of my FFer friends said they were going to vote for Martin McGuinness. After the election, all of them reported voting for Sean Gallagher and he didn't even have FF beside his name in that election. The polls suggest a drift of ~8% from FG to FF, with the same number drifting from FF to SF. While the drift from FG to FF is probable, I feel the same drift from FF to SF is not.

At this point, I'm not sure if FF and FG will both have enough numbers to form a coalition government. SF has been surging, so it'll be interesting with them gaining while FG has been dropping.

Well Holy God said Miley! It's happening.

Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll just out. SF 25%, FF 23%, FG 20%, GP 8%, LP 4%, &c 20%

Bananaistan wrote:Well Holy God said Miley! It's happening.

Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll just out. SF 25%, FF 23%, FG 20%, GP 8%, LP 4%, &c 20%

This country is fucked.

Marxist Germany wrote:

Bananaistan wrote:Well Holy God said Miley! It's happening.

Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll just out. SF 25%, FF 23%, FG 20%, GP 8%, LP 4%, &c 20%

This country is fucked.

Indeed, because FF, FG, Labour and Greens have such a stellar record in government. SF literally couldn't do any worse than what's come before.

Bananaistan wrote:

Marxist Germany wrote:This country is fucked.

Indeed, because FF, FG, Labour and Greens have such a stellar record in government. SF literally couldn't do any worse than what's come before.

SF is even more leftwing than Labour.

Marxist Germany wrote:

Bananaistan wrote:
Indeed, because FF, FG, Labour and Greens have such a stellar record in government. SF literally couldn't do any worse than what's come before.

SF is even more leftwing than Labour.

And they're also only standing for 42 seats as someone else pointed out, so they likely won't get into the government.

Marxist Germany wrote:

Bananaistan wrote:
Indeed, because FF, FG, Labour and Greens have such a stellar record in government. SF literally couldn't do any worse than what's come before.

SF is even more leftwing than Labour.

So?

Unlike Labour they're not solely concerned with the opinions of the public sector unions.

In any case, SF will not be the largest party in the Dáil, even if those poll figures hold up. They haven't enough candidates to get more seats than FF on those vote figures.

I previously posted that I'd see FF/FG as the most likely coalition. It would now appear that FG won't win enough seats to make FG/SF possible. So the only two options will be FF/FG or FF/SF. This is delicious.

Shrillland wrote:

Marxist Germany wrote:SF is even more leftwing than Labour.

And they're also only standing for 42 seats as someone else pointed out, so they likely won't get into the government.

It's the trend that's worrying, the country is rapidly shifting left.

Marxist Germany wrote:

Shrillland wrote:
And they're also only standing for 42 seats as someone else pointed out, so they likely won't get into the government.

It's the trend that's worrying, the country is rapidly shifting left.

There's nothing particularly rapid about it. This poll has FF/FG combined at 43%. 2016 they polled 49.8%, and in 2011 53.6%. People have finally cottoned on that there's no difference between them.

Shrillland wrote:

Marxist Germany wrote:SF is even more leftwing than Labour.

And they're also only standing for 42 seats as someone else pointed out, so they likely won't get into the government.

However they do hold the keys for government provided that FG+FF doesn't equal majority.

Marxist Germany wrote:

Shrillland wrote:
And they're also only standing for 42 seats as someone else pointed out, so they likely won't get into the government.

It's the trend that's worrying, the country is rapidly shifting left.

The horror of a left-wing party garnering a quarter of the vote. Where's McCarthy when we need him?