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UK Politics Thread X: The dominoes come tumbling down?

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How long do you believe Boris Johnson will remain as Prime Minister after recent electoral defeats?

He will remain Prime Minister full term and lead the Conservative Party into the Next Election.
11
15%
He will remain Prime Minister full term, successfully beating another vote of no confidence, and lead the Conservative Party into the Next Election.
14
19%
He will lose a vote of no confidence/resign within the next One-Two Years.
13
17%
He will lose a vote of no confidence/resign within the next Six Months.
16
21%
He will lose a vote of no confidence/resign within the next Month.
8
11%
He will lose a vote of no confidence/resign within the next five hours, defect to the NIP and lead it to glorious victory in Dudley North in the Next Election.
13
17%
 
Total votes : 75

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The Nihilistic view
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Moralistic Democracy

Postby The Nihilistic view » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:21 am

Emotional Support Crocodile wrote:When the NIPs inevitably triumph, will they be building a big beautiful dry stone wall to keep out the southerners?


I imagine it will be more to stop any defectors from leaving.
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The Huskar Social Union
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:28 am

Today in the UK: Mick Lynch vs literally everyone.

Well, everyone in the Media at least.

Emotional Support Crocodile wrote:When the NIPs inevitably triumph, will they be building a big beautiful dry stone wall to keep out the southerners?

Nah, they will be using the stone for fortifications to control the pesky Scottish lowlands after their righteous occupation by the army of Northumbria.
Last edited by The Huskar Social Union on Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Vassenor
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Postby Vassenor » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:09 am

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Today in the UK: Mick Lynch vs literally everyone.


So I guess tomorrow we're going to see how much dirt they can dig up on him after Piers Morgan's lame attempts to grill him on using The Hood as a PFP.
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The Huskar Social Union
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:20 am

Traces of polio virus found in London sewage as health officials declare national incident

Officials believe there has been some spread between closely linked individuals in northeast London - probably extended family members.

Traces of the polio virus have been found during a routine sewage inspection in London, leading the UK Health Security Agency to declare a national incident.

Health officials are now concerned about the community spread of the virus after samples were collected from the Beckton Sewage Treatment Works in London, but have stressed the risk to the public is extremely low.

Several closely-related polio viruses were found in sewage samples taken between February and May. It has continued to evolve and has now been classified as a 'vaccine-derived' poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2).

Officials believe there has been some spread between closely linked individuals in northeast London - probably extended family members - and that these people are now shedding the type 2 poliovirus strain in their faeces.

Urgent investigations will try to establish the extent of community transmission and to identify where it may be occurring.

Dr Vanessa Saliba, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, said: "Vaccine-derived poliovirus is rare and the risk to the public overall is extremely low.

"Vaccine-derived poliovirus has the potential to spread, particularly in communities where vaccine uptake is lower. On rare occasions it can cause paralysis in people who are not fully vaccinated so if you or your child are not up to date with your polio vaccinations it's important you contact your GP to catch up or, if unsure, check your red book.

"Most of the UK population will be protected from vaccination in childhood, but in some communities with low vaccine coverage, individuals may remain at risk.

"We are urgently investigating to better understand the extent of this transmission and the NHS has been asked to swiftly report any suspected cases to the UKHSA, though no cases have been reported or confirmed so far."

It is likely the virus was shed by someone who was recently vaccinated against polio in a country where it has not yet been eradicated, such as Pakistan, Afghanistan or Nigeria.

=CONTINUES=
Obviously shit news to hear but thankfully we have vaccines etc to deal with polio so hopefully not too many people pick it up and it can be dealt with quickly
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Thethen
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Founded: Jun 10, 2022
Democratic Socialists

Postby Thethen » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:24 am

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Traces of polio virus found in London sewage as health officials declare national incident

Officials believe there has been some spread between closely linked individuals in northeast London - probably extended family members.

Traces of the polio virus have been found during a routine sewage inspection in London, leading the UK Health Security Agency to declare a national incident.

Health officials are now concerned about the community spread of the virus after samples were collected from the Beckton Sewage Treatment Works in London, but have stressed the risk to the public is extremely low.

Several closely-related polio viruses were found in sewage samples taken between February and May. It has continued to evolve and has now been classified as a 'vaccine-derived' poliovirus type 2 (VDPV2).

Officials believe there has been some spread between closely linked individuals in northeast London - probably extended family members - and that these people are now shedding the type 2 poliovirus strain in their faeces.

Urgent investigations will try to establish the extent of community transmission and to identify where it may be occurring.

Dr Vanessa Saliba, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, said: "Vaccine-derived poliovirus is rare and the risk to the public overall is extremely low.

"Vaccine-derived poliovirus has the potential to spread, particularly in communities where vaccine uptake is lower. On rare occasions it can cause paralysis in people who are not fully vaccinated so if you or your child are not up to date with your polio vaccinations it's important you contact your GP to catch up or, if unsure, check your red book.

"Most of the UK population will be protected from vaccination in childhood, but in some communities with low vaccine coverage, individuals may remain at risk.

"We are urgently investigating to better understand the extent of this transmission and the NHS has been asked to swiftly report any suspected cases to the UKHSA, though no cases have been reported or confirmed so far."

It is likely the virus was shed by someone who was recently vaccinated against polio in a country where it has not yet been eradicated, such as Pakistan, Afghanistan or Nigeria.

=CONTINUES=
Obviously shit news to hear but thankfully we have vaccines etc to deal with polio so hopefully not too many people pick it up and it can be dealt with quickly

First monkeypox, now polio. When will it end?
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Emotional Support Crocodile
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New York Times Democracy

Postby Emotional Support Crocodile » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:37 am

Thethen wrote:
The Huskar Social Union wrote:Traces of polio virus found in London sewage as health officials declare national incident

Obviously shit news to hear but thankfully we have vaccines etc to deal with polio so hopefully not too many people pick it up and it can be dealt with quickly

First monkeypox, now polio. When will it end?


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The Archregimancy
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Democratic Socialists

Postby The Archregimancy » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:31 pm

Kate Bush at number 1 in the charts; inflation reaching double digits; community transmission of polio; heatwaves regularly hitting 30 degrees celsius; the talk of strikes is in the air...

I remember 1976 quite well; I imagine few of the rest of you do.

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Fartsniffage
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Fartsniffage » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:32 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:Kate Bush at number 1 in the charts; inflation reaching double digits; community transmission of polio; heatwaves regularly hitting 30 degrees celsius; the talk of strikes is in the air...

I remember 1976 quite well; I imagine few of the rest of you do.


Kay Burley seems to.

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Emotional Support Crocodile
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New York Times Democracy

Postby Emotional Support Crocodile » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:36 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:Kate Bush at number 1 in the charts; inflation reaching double digits; community transmission of polio; heatwaves regularly hitting 30 degrees celsius; the talk of strikes is in the air...

I remember 1976 quite well; I imagine few of the rest of you do.


I look forward to seeing who gets appointed Minister for Drought.

I was sitting my O levels in 1976, the heat certainly didn't help with concentration. And there was Frampton Comes Alive. Kate Bush was a couple of years later.
Last edited by Emotional Support Crocodile on Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:32 am, edited 3 times in total.

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The Huskar Social Union
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:44 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:Kate Bush at number 1 in the charts; inflation reaching double digits; community transmission of polio; heatwaves regularly hitting 30 degrees celsius; the talk of strikes is in the air...

I remember 1976 quite well; I imagine few of the rest of you do.

mfw i find myself, a Northern Irishman, transported to 1976
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The Huskar Social Union
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby The Huskar Social Union » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:10 pm

Last edited by The Huskar Social Union on Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Irish Nationalist from Belfast / Alliance Party / Leftwinger / Atheist
Miniature Painting, Cheese, Curry, Tanks and English Gals are my Kryptonite


I never thought in terms of being a leader. I thought very simply in terms of helping people’ - John Hume



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Emotional Support Crocodile
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Postby Emotional Support Crocodile » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:30 pm

The polling stations have opened in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton. I'm excited.

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The Archregimancy
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Postby The Archregimancy » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:06 am

For what it's worth, I expect Labour to win Wakefield at a canter, but for the Conservatives to hold Tiverton by a whisker - possibly by under 500 votes. The LibDems are throwing everything at Tiverton, and the party has an excellent ground game, but it would be an almost unprecedented result for a party to come from third to overturn a 24,000 vote majority (and 60% vote share).

The Tiverton result will be spun as a victory for the government, and would likely allow the PM to keep holding on, but if they do come that close to losing the seat it's realistically a very bad result.

If the LibDems do somehow win Tiverton, the Prime Minister will have a very awkward trip to Rwanda, and Sir Ed Davey will be incredibly smug for the next 48 hours.

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The Huskar Social Union
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:08 am

Today is the day, i demand copious amounts of spice!

Also will we see Davey rising period question mark
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Hirota
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Hirota » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:20 am

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Juristonia
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Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby Juristonia » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:54 am

The Huskar Social Union wrote:Today in the UK: Mick Lynch vs literally everyone.

Well, everyone in the Media at least.

Dude's not taking any prisoners.
It's funny how quickly everyone goes in panic mode the second someone just responds without beating around the bush for half an hour.
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Nationalist Northumbria
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Postby Nationalist Northumbria » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:20 am

The Archregimancy wrote:For what it's worth, I expect Labour to win Wakefield at a canter, but for the Conservatives to hold Tiverton by a whisker - possibly by under 500 votes. The LibDems are throwing everything at Tiverton, and the party has an excellent ground game, but it would be an almost unprecedented result for a party to come from third to overturn a 24,000 vote majority (and 60% vote share).

The Tiverton result will be spun as a victory for the government, and would likely allow the PM to keep holding on, but if they do come that close to losing the seat it's realistically a very bad result.

If the LibDems do somehow win Tiverton, the Prime Minister will have a very awkward trip to Rwanda, and Sir Ed Davey will be incredibly smug for the next 48 hours.

Yeah yeah yeah. You were saying similar things about North Shropshire, then the Lib Dems won it by fifteen points. You don't have to manage expectations on the NS forum.
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The Archregimancy
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Democratic Socialists

Postby The Archregimancy » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:50 am

Nationalist Northumbria wrote:Yeah yeah yeah. You were saying similar things about North Shropshire, then the Lib Dems won it by fifteen points. You don't have to manage expectations on the NS forum.


I'm not managing expectations; I'm offering a genuine personal opinion.

I've had absolutely no involvement in the Tiverton by-election other than having my in-box flooded with requests for donations.

But if you want a counter-opinion from a LibDem voter, here's PoliticalBetting lead editor Mike Smithson saying that he's considering putting a bet on a LibDem majority of 3000+.


As to North Shropshire, having reviewed my posts on the subject, I think you may be misremembering what I wrote.

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Nationalist Northumbria
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Postby Nationalist Northumbria » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:58 am

The Archregimancy wrote:
Nationalist Northumbria wrote:Yeah yeah yeah. You were saying similar things about North Shropshire, then the Lib Dems won it by fifteen points. You don't have to manage expectations on the NS forum.


I'm not managing expectations; I'm offering a genuine personal opinion.

I've had absolutely no involvement in the Tiverton by-election other than having my in-box flooded with requests for donations.

But if you want a counter-opinion from a LibDem voter, here's PoliticalBetting lead editor Mike Smithson saying that he's considering putting a bet on a LibDem majority of 3000+.


As to North Shropshire, having reviewed my posts on the subject, I think you may be misremembering what I wrote.

viewtopic.php?p=39212133#p39212133
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The Archregimancy
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Postby The Archregimancy » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:04 am

Nationalist Northumbria wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:
I'm not managing expectations; I'm offering a genuine personal opinion.

I've had absolutely no involvement in the Tiverton by-election other than having my in-box flooded with requests for donations.

But if you want a counter-opinion from a LibDem voter, here's PoliticalBetting lead editor Mike Smithson saying that he's considering putting a bet on a LibDem majority of 3000+.


As to North Shropshire, having reviewed my posts on the subject, I think you may be misremembering what I wrote.


viewtopic.php?p=39212133#p39212133


Yes, I'm aware of that post, and it's included in my link. You'll note that it was written four days before the North Shropshire by-election, specifically refers to internal polling that was shared earlier that day, and leaves open the possibility of a LibDem win depending on other factors. It's quite different from predicting a loss on the actual day of the election.

I know that you'll likely find this an odd concept, but just because I support a specific political party doesn't necessarily mean I feel a need to be a booster over predicting their performance in specific elections.

It may be that I'm wrong; anyone who's been around these threads over the last 12 years will know better than to use my political predictions as the basis of a bet. But I do at least try to be honest about what I think.

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Hirota
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Hirota » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:18 am

The Archregimancy wrote:I support a specific political party doesn't necessarily mean I feel a need to be a booster over predicting their performance in specific elections.
Don't you know where you are posting Arch? This is NSG, we don't take kindly to advanced concepts like nuance and a lack of tribalism.
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It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.
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Nationalist Northumbria
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Postby Nationalist Northumbria » Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:36 am

The Archregimancy wrote:


Yes, I'm aware of that post, and it's included in my link. You'll note that it was written four days before the North Shropshire by-election, specifically refers to internal polling that was shared earlier that day, and leaves open the possibility of a LibDem win depending on other factors. It's quite different from predicting a loss on the actual day of the election.

I know that you'll likely find this an odd concept, but just because I support a specific political party doesn't necessarily mean I feel a need to be a booster over predicting their performance in specific elections.

It may be that I'm wrong; anyone who's been around these threads over the last 12 years will know better than to use my political predictions as the basis of a bet. But I do at least try to be honest about what I think.

Suppose my scepticism might in part come from being on other forums where Lib Dem supporters are repeating exactly the same expectations-managing arguments they were using in the run-up to North Shropshire. Point is, last time we were getting from the Lib Dems "it's so close! we're tied!" briefing and internal polling and then election day came and they blew the Tories out of the water. This time we're getting exactly the same. If the Lib Dems don't get at least a 5% majority in Tiverton and Honiton I promise I will quit NSG for a month.
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The Archregimancy
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Democratic Socialists

Postby The Archregimancy » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:02 am

Nationalist Northumbria wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:
Yes, I'm aware of that post, and it's included in my link. You'll note that it was written four days before the North Shropshire by-election, specifically refers to internal polling that was shared earlier that day, and leaves open the possibility of a LibDem win depending on other factors. It's quite different from predicting a loss on the actual day of the election.

I know that you'll likely find this an odd concept, but just because I support a specific political party doesn't necessarily mean I feel a need to be a booster over predicting their performance in specific elections.

It may be that I'm wrong; anyone who's been around these threads over the last 12 years will know better than to use my political predictions as the basis of a bet. But I do at least try to be honest about what I think.


Suppose my scepticism might in part come from being on other forums where Lib Dem supporters are repeating exactly the same expectations-managing arguments they were using in the run-up to North Shropshire. Point is, last time we were getting from the Lib Dems "it's so close! we're tied!" briefing and internal polling and then election day came and they blew the Tories out of the water. This time we're getting exactly the same. If the Lib Dems don't get at least a 5% majority in Tiverton and Honiton I promise I will quit NSG for a month.


If internal polling is close, it's a standard tactic by the LibDems to release that internal polling.

This messaging is used to both drive activist support on the basis that 'we're incredibly close, and your support could make the difference' and encourage tactical voting by Labour and Green supporters.

It's therefore in the interest of LibDem activists to suggest the election is close in the run-up to the election.

But there's a significant difference in using that as strategic messaging in the lead-up to the election and making a personal prediction after polls have opened. My personal prediction after polls have opened is obviously not designed to inspire activists or encourage supporters of other parties in Tiverton to switch their vote.


Edit:

I'll obviously be delighted if I am wrong, mind.
Last edited by The Archregimancy on Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Teletubieland
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Founded: May 01, 2022
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Teletubieland » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:03 am

Incidentially for election fans thinking of staying up for the results, should be between 4AM and 6AM.
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Emotional Support Crocodile
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Posts: 386
Founded: Jun 06, 2022
New York Times Democracy

Postby Emotional Support Crocodile » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:26 am

Teletubieland wrote:Incidentially for election fans thinking of staying up for the results, should be between 4AM and 6AM.


That's more get up half an hour early, than stay up late for me.

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