Exalted Inquellian State wrote:Shofercia wrote:
Russia didn't give Armenia a black check; Russia said that Armenia will be defended, if Armenia's attacked on its de facto soil. That's not a blank check to go and raid Baku. The issue with Germany's blank check to Austria-Hungary, was that Austria-Hungary used it to annex Serbia, even though Serbia met 9.5/10 of Austria's insane demands, with the Serbs asking that an international court, rather than Austria-Hungary's biased court, handle the case. That was the only objection.
Serbia: "yes, we'll meet the prosecutor's insane demands, but can we please have a fair and unbiased Judge?"
Austria-Hungary: "WAR! YOU WANT WAR! YOU SHALL HAVE WAR!"
Rest of Europe: "well... shit, I guess we're doing this"
As for what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh, something similar happened in Nakhichkevan in reverse. Now there are so few Armenians in Nakhichkevan, and so few Azeris in Nagorno-Karabakh, that they can all be picked up by a single plane. And the tensions that led to the crisis were exacerbated by Gorbachev's Operation Ring.
Not to go off topic, but Wilhelm II arrived from vacation on July 28th-when Austria-Hungary declared war. He looked at the Serbian list and said that there was no reason to go to war. If he arrived a bit earlier, the blank check would likely be gone. Also, my source is Extra Credits' video from 2014.
Just saying.
I'm reading a book on how WWI started, and it's a comedy of errors. No country's blameless. It'd be interesting to do a thread on that.
W erp wrote:Ah, Caucasian domino theory. I remember arguing with you about this years ago.
Sorry, just saw this. Since this is a Caucasian thread, let's just review what happened.
1985 - Gorbachev comes to power. Even seen him visit the Caucasus without armed bodyguards? Doubt it, since for that region, he's viewed as mostly demonic.
1988 - February: Armenia and Azerbaijan go to war. It lasts until 1994. Remember that year.
1991 - April/May: Gorbachev's disastrous Operation Ring exacerbates tensions in the region. There is no turning back.
1991-1992: Georgia's most militant faction, led by Gamzakhurdia, goes to war with South Ossetia, and loses.
1992-1993: Having lost in Ossetia, Gamzakhurdia tries Abkhazia; that's like asking to play the Patriots after losing the Bills. He gets his ass kicked.
1994-1996: After the wars in Georgia/South Ossetia/Abkhazia and Armenia/Azerbaijan/Nagorno-Karabakh/Nakhichkevan settled down, it's time for the First Chechen War!
1996-1999: Yeltsin, deciding to follow Gorbachev's policy in the Caucasus, turns tail and runs like a little drunk bitch, after igniting an unpopular war, betraying the Russian Armed Force. In the meantime, the International Islamic Peacekeeping Brigade, which is neither international, nor peacekeeping, nor really giving a shit about Islamic traditions, actually they're the forerunners of ISIS, takes advantage of weakened Chechnya and take it out.
1999: Dagestan War! Using Chechnya as a base, and after enslaving and raping quite a bit of the local populace, (somehow Western Human Rights experts were mostly silent on this issue,) IIPB/ISIS declares that all of Southern Russia is theirs for the taking, and invades Dagestan. Runs into Russian Armed Forces and gets ass kicked.
1999-2000: Putin helps out the Russian Armed Forces with logistics and lets them do their thing. IIPB is routed, bitchslapped, and annihilated.
I wonder, what would've happened, if the USSR bitch-slapped the provocateurs of the first war? Don't have to wonder, we know.
2008: Georgia attacks South Ossetia. Russia destroys Georgian Armed Forces in less than two weeks. Everyone in the region shuts the fuck up, while the Western Media bleats about Russian aggression, thus completely discrediting themselves in Russia, and giving Putin a card to play with China.
Fairly certain that the Domino Theory works for the Caucasus. Also, fairly certain that Russia won't let this escalate, except for a few minor skirmishes.