Coronavirus Thread IV: Legends, Laments and Lockdowns

[Neutraligon]

Fact is if you exclude NY then the virus is rapidly expanding in the US.

Coronavirus in America now looks like this: More than a month has passed since there was a day with fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus. Almost every day, at least 25,000 new coronavirus cases are identified, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world with more than a million — is expanding by between 2 and 4 percent daily.

A 1000 deaths every day for more than a month.. it gets worse..

The outbreak in the United States has already killed more than 70,000 people, and epidemiologists say the nation will not see fewer than 5,000 coronavirus-related deaths a week until after June 20, according to a survey conducted by researchers at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. A federal projection, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecasts a steady rise in deaths in the next several weeks, to a daily death toll of 3,000 on June 1.

Summer daze..

I believe for much of the US it has been somewhat steady, neither declining nor increasing. Some states, like Maryland, have had increasing numbers. And MD is opening the beaches...

[Rojava Free State]

Florida, a swing state with an aggressively pro-Trump Republican governor, received everything it requested within three days, while other states like Oregon, Oklahoma, and New Jersey all got less than 10 percent of the equipment they asked for.

Noticing a pattern of which states Trump is stealing from.

[Rojava Free State]

I think we might have some very interesting voter turnout in the United States. I believe that as more African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, and minorities die, there will be more turnout for Biden among that population. Death is a huge motivator.

I think that will actually lower turnout because people will be afraid to come out to vote if everyone is dying left and right.

[Neutraligon]

I think we might have some very interesting voter turnout in the United States. I believe that as more African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, and minorities die, there will be more turnout for Biden among that population. Death is a huge motivator.

I think that will actually lower turnout because people will be afraid to come out to vote if everyone is dying left and right.

That would depend on if people do voting by mail.

[Bombadil]

Fact is if you exclude NY then the virus is rapidly expanding in the US.

Coronavirus in America now looks like this: More than a month has passed since there was a day with fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus. Almost every day, at least 25,000 new coronavirus cases are identified, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world with more than a million — is expanding by between 2 and 4 percent daily.

A 1000 deaths every day for more than a month.. it gets worse..

The outbreak in the United States has already killed more than 70,000 people, and epidemiologists say the nation will not see fewer than 5,000 coronavirus-related deaths a week until after June 20, according to a survey conducted by researchers at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. A federal projection, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecasts a steady rise in deaths in the next several weeks, to a daily death toll of 3,000 on June 1.

Summer daze..

I believe for much of the US it has been somewhat steady, neither declining nor increasing. Some states, like Maryland, have had increasing numbers. And MD is opening the beaches...

There is no escaping some basic epidemic math.

In the absence of a vaccine, stopping the spread of the virus requires about two-thirds of the population to have been infected. And some experts have argued that before what is known as herd immunity kicks in, the number of people infected nationwide could reach a staggering 90 percent if social distancing is relaxed and transmission rates climb. (It is also not clear how long immunity will last among those who have been infected.)

As testing capacity has increased, so has the number of cases being counted. But many jurisdictions are still missing cases and undercounting deaths. Many epidemiologists assume that roughly 10 times as many people have been infected with the coronavirus than the number of known cases.

Because of the time it will take for infections to spread, incubate and cause people to die, the effects of reopening states may not be known until at least six weeks after the fact. One model used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention includes an assumption that the infection rate will increase up to 20 percent in states that reopen.

Under that model, by early August, the most likely outcome is 3,000 more deaths in Georgia than the state has right now, 10,000 more each in New York and New Jersey, and around 7,000 more each in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts. Under the model’s most likely forecast, the nation will see about 100,000 additional deaths by Aug. 4.

Link

[SangMar]

Florida, a swing state with an aggressively pro-Trump Republican governor, received everything it requested within three days, while other states like Oregon, Oklahoma, and New Jersey all got less than 10 percent of the equipment they asked for.

Noticing a pattern of which states Trump is stealing from.

Is now a good time to tell you that Trump is sending ventilators to Russia? They can have them, Americans can’t. Nothing like owning the “libtards”, eh?

[Rojava Free State]

I think that will actually lower turnout because people will be afraid to come out to vote if everyone is dying left and right.

That would depend on if people do voting by mail.

Many states run by a certain party are gonna do their best to stop that.

[Nakena]

Florida, a swing state with an aggressively pro-Trump Republican governor, received everything it requested within three days, while other states like Oregon, Oklahoma, and New Jersey all got less than 10 percent of the equipment they asked for.

Noticing a pattern of which states Trump is stealing from.

I would be surprised of more Governors will order their National Guards to protect supplies like Hogan from Maryland did. Should there be a second wave in the fall or later with supplies getting short and Trump continueing his antics, i'd would get mentally and otherwise prepare for next level shit.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

I believe for much of the US it has been somewhat steady, neither declining nor increasing. Some states, like Maryland, have had increasing numbers. And MD is opening the beaches...

There is no escaping some basic epidemic math.

In the absence of a vaccine, stopping the spread of the virus requires about two-thirds of the population to have been infected. And some experts have argued that before what is known as herd immunity kicks in, the number of people infected nationwide could reach a staggering 90 percent if social distancing is relaxed and transmission rates climb. (It is also not clear how long immunity will last among those who have been infected.)

As testing capacity has increased, so has the number of cases being counted. But many jurisdictions are still missing cases and undercounting deaths. Many epidemiologists assume that roughly 10 times as many people have been infected with the coronavirus than the number of known cases.

Because of the time it will take for infections to spread, incubate and cause people to die, the effects of reopening states may not be known until at least six weeks after the fact. One model used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention includes an assumption that the infection rate will increase up to 20 percent in states that reopen.

Under that model, by early August, the most likely outcome is 3,000 more deaths in Georgia than the state has right now, 10,000 more each in New York and New Jersey, and around 7,000 more each in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts. Under the model’s most likely forecast, the nation will see about 100,000 additional deaths by Aug. 4.

Link

Most models I've seen do forecast continued death until August 4th, actually. Arkansas for example is expecting to see 171 deaths by August 4th.

[Rojava Free State]

Noticing a pattern of which states Trump is stealing from.

I would be surprised of more Governors will order their National Guards to protect supplies like Hogan from Maryland did. Should there be a second wave in the fall or later with supplies getting short and Trump continueing his antics, i'd would get mentally and otherwise prepare for next level shit.

Why do I think the second wave will be more horrifying and hellish than this one?

[Albrenia]

I think that will actually lower turnout because people will be afraid to come out to vote if everyone is dying left and right.

That would depend on if people do voting by mail.

Republican states would likely not do so, officially because of fears of voter fraud but unofficially for more obvious reasons.

[Neutraligon]

I believe for much of the US it has been somewhat steady, neither declining nor increasing. Some states, like Maryland, have had increasing numbers. And MD is opening the beaches...

There is no escaping some basic epidemic math.

In the absence of a vaccine, stopping the spread of the virus requires about two-thirds of the population to have been infected. And some experts have argued that before what is known as herd immunity kicks in, the number of people infected nationwide could reach a staggering 90 percent if social distancing is relaxed and transmission rates climb. (It is also not clear how long immunity will last among those who have been infected.)

As testing capacity has increased, so has the number of cases being counted. But many jurisdictions are still missing cases and undercounting deaths. Many epidemiologists assume that roughly 10 times as many people have been infected with the coronavirus than the number of known cases.

Because of the time it will take for infections to spread, incubate and cause people to die, the effects of reopening states may not be known until at least six weeks after the fact. One model used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention includes an assumption that the infection rate will increase up to 20 percent in states that reopen.

Under that model, by early August, the most likely outcome is 3,000 more deaths in Georgia than the state has right now, 10,000 more each in New York and New Jersey, and around 7,000 more each in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts. Under the model’s most likely forecast, the nation will see about 100,000 additional deaths by Aug. 4.

Link

I am aware that we are missing numbers. I am also aware that by opening the states we are going to see a resurgence.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

I would be surprised of more Governors will order their National Guards to protect supplies like Hogan from Maryland did. Should there be a second wave in the fall or later with supplies getting short and Trump continueing his antics, i'd would get mentally and otherwise prepare for next level shit.

Why do I think the second wave will be more horrifying and hellish than this one?

Because it could be as it would mix with influenza season and will happen during a prime season, Fall and Winter.

[Neutraligon]

Why do I think the second wave will be more horrifying and hellish than this one?

Because it could be as it would mix with influenza season and will happen during a prime season, Fall and Winter.

I think that we will see a resurgence before the flue season, and then again during the flu season. I am not looking forward to the people getting both the flu and this.

[Rojava Free State]

Why do I think the second wave will be more horrifying and hellish than this one?

Because it could be as it would mix with influenza season and will happen during a prime season, Fall and Winter.

It's about to be a long, cold winter.

[Nakena]

I would be surprised of more Governors will order their National Guards to protect supplies like Hogan from Maryland did. Should there be a second wave in the fall or later with supplies getting short and Trump continueing his antics, i'd would get mentally and otherwise prepare for next level shit.

Why do I think the second wave will be more horrifying and hellish than this one?

Because the seed has already been planted beforehand and there will be various outbreaks at the same time in not yet affected areas, and they might, given the uncoordinated response crash even more. And I dont think a second lockdown will be enforceable. Thats why the Hammer and the Dance strategy originally favored a strict containment/lockdown measure first and a flexible strategy later. With the utter messup phase 1 has already failed...

[Rojava Free State]

I believe for much of the US it has been somewhat steady, neither declining nor increasing. Some states, like Maryland, have had increasing numbers. And MD is opening the beaches...

There is no escaping some basic epidemic math.

In the absence of a vaccine, stopping the spread of the virus requires about two-thirds of the population to have been infected. And some experts have argued that before what is known as herd immunity kicks in, the number of people infected nationwide could reach a staggering 90 percent if social distancing is relaxed and transmission rates climb. (It is also not clear how long immunity will last among those who have been infected.)

As testing capacity has increased, so has the number of cases being counted. But many jurisdictions are still missing cases and undercounting deaths. Many epidemiologists assume that roughly 10 times as many people have been infected with the coronavirus than the number of known cases.

Because of the time it will take for infections to spread, incubate and cause people to die, the effects of reopening states may not be known until at least six weeks after the fact. One model used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention includes an assumption that the infection rate will increase up to 20 percent in states that reopen.

Under that model, by early August, the most likely outcome is 3,000 more deaths in Georgia than the state has right now, 10,000 more each in New York and New Jersey, and around 7,000 more each in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts. Under the model’s most likely forecast, the nation will see about 100,000 additional deaths by Aug. 4.

Link

I really hope it isn't 90%. Otherwise literally thousands will die and I and most of the people I know will catch it.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Because it could be as it would mix with influenza season and will happen during a prime season, Fall and Winter.

I think that we will see a resurgence before the flue season, and then again during the flu season.

At this point, who knows. I have seen the CDC say they foresee a second wave for Fall and Winter. Cold weather has been linked to rapid spread of the virus too.

[Neutraligon]

There is no escaping some basic epidemic math.

In the absence of a vaccine, stopping the spread of the virus requires about two-thirds of the population to have been infected. And some experts have argued that before what is known as herd immunity kicks in, the number of people infected nationwide could reach a staggering 90 percent if social distancing is relaxed and transmission rates climb. (It is also not clear how long immunity will last among those who have been infected.)

As testing capacity has increased, so has the number of cases being counted. But many jurisdictions are still missing cases and undercounting deaths. Many epidemiologists assume that roughly 10 times as many people have been infected with the coronavirus than the number of known cases.

Because of the time it will take for infections to spread, incubate and cause people to die, the effects of reopening states may not be known until at least six weeks after the fact. One model used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention includes an assumption that the infection rate will increase up to 20 percent in states that reopen.

Under that model, by early August, the most likely outcome is 3,000 more deaths in Georgia than the state has right now, 10,000 more each in New York and New Jersey, and around 7,000 more each in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Massachusetts. Under the model’s most likely forecast, the nation will see about 100,000 additional deaths by Aug. 4.

Link

I really hope it isn't 90%. Otherwise literally thousands will die and I and most of the people I know will catch it.

I mean initial estimates where 100,000 deaths in the US alone from what I recall, and that was with strict isolation.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Because it could be as it would mix with influenza season and will happen during a prime season, Fall and Winter.

It's about to be a long, cold winter.

Possibly. Not gonna lie. Which is why I also think there are many states hastening their reopening. Provoke infection rate spikes during the summer so they won't have to deal with a worse disaster for flu and CoVID19 season.

[Rojava Free State]

I can't believe it. Trump's actions are gonna kill potetially hundreds of thousands of Americans, and we can't do anything but watch in horror as he says "no, this is the limit. I'm pushing it."

[Neutraligon]

It's about to be a long, cold winter.

Possibly. Not gonna lie. Which is why I also think there are many states hastening their reopening. Provoke infection rate spikes during the summer so they won't have to deal with a worse disaster for flu and CoVID19 season.

Which only works if there is not a 3rd spike during flu season.

[-SARS-]

There is also no leadership from the federal government, meaning there is no coordinated response even though states are talking to each other and the federal government.

The worst bit is, I bet the states are talking to each other on party lines too. They sure as hell most likely aren’t helping out the ”other side”.

Depends what counts as "the other side." States are likely to talk to their neighbors on a regional basis even if the governors are different parties.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

I can't believe it. Trump's actions are gonna kill potetially hundreds of thousands of Americans, and we can't do anything but watch in horror as he says "no, this is the limit. I'm pushing it."

Rojava, sweetie, did you really expect anything different from Trump? It's fucked up but I am no longer surprised.

[Rojava Free State]

It's about to be a long, cold winter.

Possibly. Not gonna lie. Which is why I also think there are many states hastening their reopening. Provoke infection rate spikes during the summer so they won't have to deal with a worse disaster for flu and CoVID19 season.

A couple weeks ago I was feeling optimistic, but now I feel nothing but dread, and the near future is looking very bleak thanks to the sheer chaos that is the federal response to COVID.