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Hong Kong

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In retrospect..

The UK was right to handover HK to China
43
20%
The UK should have kept HK
54
25%
The UK should have set up HK as an independent, democratic state
110
50%
Other
13
6%
 
Total votes : 220

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Borovan entered the region as he
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Postby Borovan entered the region as he » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:52 pm

Sad it's happening.
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:56 pm

Bombadil wrote:Just as an update..

Hospital authorities told broadcaster RTHK that 72 people had been taken to hospital and two were in a serious condition. Pictures and videos on social media appeared to show people wounded by rubber bullets or bean-bag rounds, which police fired from shotguns.

However it seems the crowd has dissipated, the area is somewhat closed off.. kind of a pain in that Admiralty is quite a transport hub and no trains are stopping there for the moment.

I don't think anyone has any idea what happens next.


Okay.

I'm glad its over.

No one was killed. And order was restored. Good job Hong Kong police.

(sigh of relief)
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Great Minarchistan
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Postby Great Minarchistan » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:59 pm

-Ocelot- wrote:Realistically, what will happen to HK if it gets completely absorbed by China? How will it be affected in the long run?

I imagine that simplified Mandarin will be promoted over Cantonese but how will their society change otherwise? Will the Chinese state give the OK for buildings to be made in currently restricted areas, thus lowering HKs insane rents, for example? Who benefits more from this integration?

If rents get lowered it'll be from a housing bust since China really isn't friendly to FIRE-related jobs (the backbone of HK, to my knowledge), I'd expect a lot of white collars fleeing elsewhere such as Singapore
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:01 pm

The South Falls wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
No insurgent group ever will match the power of a state force, and if your insurgents think they will they're coming at it all wrong. You're not going to meet them in the field for an honorable engagement. Shoot them on their way to work, burn their homes, carry out random sniper attacks (there's actually a whole book on this one called Fry the Brain, would highly recommend) etc etc. Mao was absolutely right that political power grows from the gun, more people need to take that lesson to heart.



I'm not sure it would be easier per se but it is also very possible to also do that.

A long-term insurgency is impossible to maintain, without entirely destroying hong kong and all of its prospects. Starting something like the troubles would be detrimental to hong kong. Who says China won't destroy all of hong kong with scorched earth tactics.


you truly don't understand the culture here if you think the people here would have, on average, the self-sacrifice required to sustain an insurgency

there isn't any ideological spirit to sustain it; the people here (on average) only care about the size of their pay check and providing for their families

there's no Communism, jihadism, or latin American militant pro-democratic spirit

The vast majority of the people at those protests would have had their parents calling them on the phone to come home (and many probably did in large part due to that); this is what you're dealing with
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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:02 pm

Infected Mushroom wrote:
The South Falls wrote: A long-term insurgency is impossible to maintain, without entirely destroying hong kong and all of its prospects. Starting something like the troubles would be detrimental to hong kong. Who says China won't destroy all of hong kong with scorched earth tactics.


you truly don't understand the culture here if you think the people here would have, on average, the self-sacrifice required to sustain an insurgency

there isn't any ideological spirit to sustain it; the people here (on average) only care about the size of their pay check and providing for their families

there's no Communism, jihadism, or latin American militant pro-democratic spirit

The vast majority of the people at those protests would have had their parents calling them on the phone to come home (and many probably did in large part due to that); this is what you're dealing with


Sounds like we need to start a propaganda campaign to change that.

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Duhon
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Postby Duhon » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:03 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Bear Stearns wrote:Expect to see massive capital flights from Hong Kong, followed by the Hong Kongers themselves.

There's 7.4 million Hong Kongers, where they gonna go?


We Pinoys can take them! We love hard workers!

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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:07 pm

The PRC has got the PLA but before they even need to deploy that...

1. There's no shortage of local Hong Kong elites and from many walks of life willing to play ball with the PRC (this is one of the most capitalistic places)

2. The Hong Kong police are on the side of the PRC

3. The parents are on the side of the PRC (in effect because within hours of any protests, they're going to add the pressure for the protestors to stop and get back to what's "important," work and study). Mommy and Daddy are a major factor here in this Confucian society.

4. The Hong Kong protestors THEMSELVES will realise, in a pretty short time, that they could lose their jobs or positions in the schools because this is in effect a strike and an attempt to cause trouble. Their conservatism and cowardice will kick in and they will go home (in combination with the opinions of Mom and Dad).

...

Hence it never gets to any kind of insurgency stage once the police start playing even a little bit harder.

If it did, no stereotypical Hong Konger would give up work and family just to fight for "democracy" for more then a few weeks.

There is no real religion here (except superficially) so you can't tell the fighters they will go to heaven after either. There's no ideological fire like Communism either... just a vague notion of anti-mainland-Chinese bigotry and some vague sense of Freedom.

The only thing these people truly respect is money (I really dislike that) and how westernised you are. (the hierarchy from the bigots roughly goes Western > Westernised Cantonese > Cantonese > Mainland Chinese > other foreigners)... then there's the size of your pay check.

I doubt many of them could even articulate a complete list of the supposed advantages of democracy; they certainly won't die for it.
Last edited by Infected Mushroom on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Tuthina
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Postby Tuthina » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:07 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Bear Stearns wrote:Expect to see massive capital flights from Hong Kong, followed by the Hong Kongers themselves.

There's 7.4 million Hong Kongers, where they gonna go?

Well, a lot of those with means are in Canada or have Canadian residence, so that could work out for them. My own extended family probably has more Canadian than HKer. Not that I expect said massive flight to actually take place, though.
Last edited by Tuthina on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:09 pm

Tuthina wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:There's 7.4 million Hong Kongers, where they gonna go?

Well, a lot of those with means are in Canada or have Canadian residence, so that could work out for them. My own extended family probably has more Canadian than HKer. Not that I expect said massive flight to actually take place, though.

Those with means would reduce the number to what? 7.38 million?
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:11 pm

Tuthina wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:There's 7.4 million Hong Kongers, where they gonna go?

Well, a lot of those with means are in Canada or have Canadian residence, so that could work out for them. My own extended family probably has more Canadian than HKer. Not that I expect said massive flight to actually take place, though.


I think the vast majority of them will stay right here.

Even in 1997, it was just mostly the super rich who ran. But nowadays, most of the super rich have learned to play ball with the PRC to their own gain.
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Bombadil
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Postby Bombadil » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:13 pm

Just as a note on this law, the fact is that according to Chinese law anyone who breaks the law, no matter your nationality and no matter even where you are when you do so, is subject to prosecution. So even if you're an American in America and you break Chinese law then you're subject to prosecution.

Which is fine, if you're not planning to visit China anytime soon.

However what this law does mean is anyone in HK will be open to extradition subject to Chinese law, whether resident or even just visiting as a tourist or speaker.

Theoretically the request has to go through HK courts and be approved by the CE, Carrie Lam.. but even where that holds true the effect is still to suppress people's right to speak out and protest. It creates the window through which the independence of HK's legal system is breached.

Hence while it's true that there is a sense of resentment at mainland Chinese I don't think they're really the factor in protesting this specific law.

Anyway, it's all quiet now. I guess we're waiting for an announcement on the resumption or not of the second reading.
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:14 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
you truly don't understand the culture here if you think the people here would have, on average, the self-sacrifice required to sustain an insurgency

there isn't any ideological spirit to sustain it; the people here (on average) only care about the size of their pay check and providing for their families

there's no Communism, jihadism, or latin American militant pro-democratic spirit

The vast majority of the people at those protests would have had their parents calling them on the phone to come home (and many probably did in large part due to that); this is what you're dealing with


Sounds like we need to start a propaganda campaign to change that.


Self Sacrifice is essentially incompatible with this city

The protests are (from my point of view) already a "surprising exception."

This is a conservative city of commerce. Your social standing depends entirely on how much you make (in fact, unlike in many Western countries, its NOT impolite... it's quite NORMAL to outright ask people about salaries in casual conversation). If you are older, then you're expected to be married and have kids. If you're a student, then you better get good grades... in fact this academic competition starts as early as K2-3.

The capitalist ethos is praised and this greatly promotes a degree of selfishness among the population that's in-conducive to a true revolution.

Hence, I find it highly unlikely that such a culture could stand in solidarity and fight like the Viet Cong. You'd need a new religion besides money and family first.
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Great Minarchistan
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Postby Great Minarchistan » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:14 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Bear Stearns wrote:Expect to see massive capital flights from Hong Kong, followed by the Hong Kongers themselves.

There's 7.4 million Hong Kongers, where they gonna go?

Probably to another strong economic pole such as Singapore
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:17 pm

^

When I went to an Americanized international school here back in the day here... we sometimes mingled with cantonese kids from the local school system.

The teachers held a joint exercise where we were asked to discuss our dreams and aspirations in life or the meaning of life. All of us from the westernised school had very different answers ("oh I want to become a great artist," "I want have a balanced life and be happy with my family," or "I want to accomplish something great in history").

The cantonese kids from the local school system, almost 100% of them had the same answer:

"Make lots of money. Have children."

The end.
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Great Minarchistan
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Postby Great Minarchistan » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:20 pm

Infected Mushroom wrote:^

When I went to an Americanized international school here back in the day here... we sometimes mingled with cantonese kids from the local school system.

The teachers held a joint exercise where we were asked to discuss our dreams and aspirations in life or the meaning of life. All of us from the westernised school had very different answers ("oh I want to become a great artist," "I want have a balanced life and be happy with my family," or "I want to accomplish something great in history").

The cantonese kids from the local school system, almost 100% of them had the same answer:

"Make lots of money. Have children."

The end.

A most useful pool of labor indeed
Awarded for Best Capitalist in 2018 NSG Awards ;')
Pro: private property, free market, debt reduction, classical liberalism, fiscal orthodoxy, LGBT rights, neoliberalism

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Against: social-democracy, corporatism, SJWs, socialism, keynesianism, political correctness, social welfare programs

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Duhon
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Postby Duhon » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:22 pm

Infected Mushroom wrote:^

When I went to an Americanized international school here back in the day here... we sometimes mingled with cantonese kids from the local school system.

The teachers held a joint exercise where we were asked to discuss our dreams and aspirations in life or the meaning of life. All of us from the westernised school had very different answers ("oh I want to become a great artist," "I want have a balanced life and be happy with my family," or "I want to accomplish something great in history").

The cantonese kids from the local school system, almost 100% of them had the same answer:

"Make lots of money. Have children."

The end.


"Panem. Circenses. Thanatos."

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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:23 pm

Great Minarchistan wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:^

When I went to an Americanized international school here back in the day here... we sometimes mingled with cantonese kids from the local school system.

The teachers held a joint exercise where we were asked to discuss our dreams and aspirations in life or the meaning of life. All of us from the westernised school had very different answers ("oh I want to become a great artist," "I want have a balanced life and be happy with my family," or "I want to accomplish something great in history").

The cantonese kids from the local school system, almost 100% of them had the same answer:

"Make lots of money. Have children."

The end.

A most useful pool of labor indeed


This place is literally (for better or worse) pretty close to the free market being at complete work both in practice and in ideology

in other countries other values may cause distortions in how we should treat and reward workers (it's not all about money, there's a lot of soft factors)...

here, if you want things done (at least for a traditional cantonese organization which is 90% plus), offer a bigger pay check, that's what holds the societal power and motivates

in a lot of ways, its quite simplified
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:26 pm

Duhon wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:^

When I went to an Americanized international school here back in the day here... we sometimes mingled with cantonese kids from the local school system.

The teachers held a joint exercise where we were asked to discuss our dreams and aspirations in life or the meaning of life. All of us from the westernised school had very different answers ("oh I want to become a great artist," "I want have a balanced life and be happy with my family," or "I want to accomplish something great in history").

The cantonese kids from the local school system, almost 100% of them had the same answer:

"Make lots of money. Have children."

The end.


"Panem. Circenses. Thanatos."


I mean... I (personally) don't get it

without any work-life balance any money you make beyond a certain point becomes moot (and work-life is not a thing with cantonese culture, you have to work for a more western organization to really get that)

in many sectors, this place now has work hours comparable to Japan...

and the mindless obsession with creating more children and subjugating them to the same hyper-competitive academic culture; its like no one ever pauses to think whether or not this place is too awful for these kids...
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Duhon
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Postby Duhon » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:26 pm

Infected Mushroom wrote:
Great Minarchistan wrote:A most useful pool of labor indeed


This place is literally (for better or worse) pretty close to the free market being at complete work both in practice and in ideology

in other countries other values may cause distortions in how we should treat and reward workers (it's not all about money, there's a lot of soft factors)...

here, if you want things done (at least for a traditional cantonese organization which is 90% plus), offer a bigger pay check, that's what holds the societal power and motivates

in a lot of ways, its quite simplified


Work. Eat. Play. Retire. Die.

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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:28 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Bear Stearns wrote:Expect to see massive capital flights from Hong Kong, followed by the Hong Kongers themselves.

There's 7.4 million Hong Kongers, where they gonna go?

They're going to go build a new Hong Kong, with blackjack and hookers.
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:29 pm

Duhon wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
This place is literally (for better or worse) pretty close to the free market being at complete work both in practice and in ideology

in other countries other values may cause distortions in how we should treat and reward workers (it's not all about money, there's a lot of soft factors)...

here, if you want things done (at least for a traditional cantonese organization which is 90% plus), offer a bigger pay check, that's what holds the societal power and motivates

in a lot of ways, its quite simplified


Work. Eat. Play. Retire. Die.


And Study. Marrying before a certain age too.
Last edited by Infected Mushroom on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:31 pm

Heloin wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:There's 7.4 million Hong Kongers, where they gonna go?

They're going to go build a new Hong Kong, with blackjack and hookers.

Maybe they'll use those islands the Chinese have been building in the South China Sea.
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Bombadil
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Postby Bombadil » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:33 pm

I think the idea that money is first and foremost is changing and certainly among the younger generation. Regardless I'd always put the concept of home and family ahead of money as values.

From a survey on people's desire to leave.. and to answer 'where would they go?' as well..

The three most popular emigration destinations were Canada at 18.8 per cent, Australia at 18 per cent, and Taiwan at 11.3 per cent.

The top three attractive factors of overseas countries for respondents planning to move were “ample living space” at 35 per cent, “better air quality, less pollution and beautiful environment” at 22.3 per cent, and “more liberty and better conditions for human rights” at 15.6 per cent.


'Making money' is not among these reasons.

More and more people want to be comfortable and secure as opposed to racing to the top. And that's what they feel they're losing.

Link
Last edited by Bombadil on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:35 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Heloin wrote:They're going to go build a new Hong Kong, with blackjack and hookers.

Maybe they'll use those islands the Chinese have been building in the South China Sea.

The Spratly's are going to get real crowded, though the Hongkongers should be used to that.
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Bombadil
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Postby Bombadil » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:40 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Heloin wrote:They're going to go build a new Hong Kong, with blackjack and hookers.

Maybe they'll use those islands the Chinese have been building in the South China Sea.


They'll certainly want to go somewhere with a Cantonese community, Hkers can be real funny about food.. to the point of being physically distraught at not being able to eat Cantonese food. The western habit of eating sandwiches at lunch is deeply weird to many HKers.

In fact I suspect if you asked HKers if they'd prefer to be poor with ample supply of Cantonese food or rich and never eat Cantonese food again they'd plump for the former.
Last edited by Bombadil on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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