Raiders have now discovered the technique of "update bending", also called "triggerfucking" in some circumstances. This technique has been known (and selectively used) by defenders for years, but raiders have now discovered it to brutal effect.
To those uninitiated: Regions update in a random but deterministic order. In military gameplay, the way operations are timed is by checking when prior regions/nations have updated; these nations/regions are selected by estimating (through a variety of means) how long before the target region they update. "Update bending" is quickly flooding or emptying regions very close to the target region to throw off such timings.
What happened now is the following: Defenders have, for two updates in a row, assembled the largest updater force in history, at 90 and 86 updaters, respectively (the previous record was 82 with The NSIA back in late 2016; usually a force of 30-40 is considered large). We were aware that the invaders had been update bending hard, so we took precautions. At the last minor update, they moved a lot of nations but ultimately our 3 separate triggers failed due to bad luck and human error. At this last major update, however, Defenders prepared by making a script on short notice that could accurately pinpoint suitable nations for triggering. The script takes about 15-25 seconds, as it pulls the data fresh from the server to calculate it. The script was run at the calculated 2 minute warning, but then the raider started moving and ejecting at that point too. Coupled with some ridiculous variance that threw off my linear calculation (I did not have time on short notice to add the more accurate statistical approach, though the difference here would be marginal), and by the time the people had opened the page to call the trigger it had already updated.
It's already an uphill battle for defenders, for a number of reasons (pilers vs. updaters, BC ROs, etc.); there is no longer a way to have acceptably accurate/precise moves into a region. If the trigger is too short, nobody updates; if the trigger is too long, the raider delegate plus their border control officers will simply banject incoming nations at one per second. Margins of 10-20 additional updaters simply don't exist in any practical situation. All this time, defenders at least had it in their hands to time their entry into the region - long enough that everybody (even on a phone) can get in, short enough to minimize the margin for banjections. This is now in the raider's hands as well.
In other words: This is basically game over for the defender military game.
Now: What can be done about this? I don't know. I suspect some on the opposing side will claim that we just need to "get better" again, but there always was a way to get better (and we did aplenty in the past few years) and this is no longer the case. I don't know if this is something that site administration even wants to address at this point - vulnerable regions will simply get raided and griefed, and that's just how the game is. So maybe nothing. But I don't know how it could be "fixed" either to restore at least a semblance of balance to an already skewed game of raiders vs. defenders. I'm drawing an absolute blank.
I don't really have a question; but I felt it's something that's worth pointing out and maybe discussing.
