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[Rejected] Beta 020: Hunger

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Leutria
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[Rejected] Beta 020: Hunger

Postby Leutria » Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:49 pm

This Beta has been rejected for the time being.
Candlewhisper Archive wrote:Yeah, this one doesn't work, I hadn't crunched it properly. Limited understanding of the game mechanics when I assembled it, a few years back.

Like I said though, that's what betas are for. Expect this one to be shelved for now.


Beta 020: Hunger

Proposed Change: World Census takers carefully assessed the cleaness of post-prandial orphan bowls to see which nation's hungry have the rumbliest stomachs.
Last edited by Leutria on Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:55 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Postby Leutria » Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:32 pm

I am a bit surprised to be in the upper middle for this census. I am guessing it highly takes into account wealth gaps/income equality (which I am top 60%/41% for) and less income of the poor, welfare, and health (which I am top 6%, 4%, and 4% respectively.). If my eyeballing the numbers is accurate, I think my ranking would come pretty close to the ranking for my income equality, when I would think things like welfare should have a strong impact on reducing hunger.

It is not the nation I am building, but i feel like in theory it should be possible to have a large income gap but low hunger if a nation puts a lot of money into welfare.

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Postby Outer Sparta » Wed Nov 20, 2019 10:40 pm

I'm not sure what parameters are calculated with hunger. This one is quite strange.
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Postby Merconitonitopia » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:02 pm

As of present I am not buying this one bit. My score will be 70. After more than a dozen samples I haven't found any nation that high, so I'm guessing I'll be in the top 5 percent at least.
The average income of my poor is more than nine times higher than the world average. Going by this there's no reason why my nation should be anywhere near even the median for hunger.
I'm guessing this is in large part to do with my nonexistent agriculture sector, but whereas having to import food would increase prices a bit, high incomes should offset this many times over.

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Postby Outer Sparta » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:08 pm

Merconitonitopia wrote:As of present I am not buying this one bit. My score will be 70. After more than a dozen samples I haven't found any nation that high, so I'm guessing I'll be in the top 5 percent at least.
The average income of my poor is more than nine times higher than the world average. Going by this there's no reason why my nation should be anywhere near even the median for hunger.
I'm guessing this is in large part to do with my nonexistent agriculture sector, but whereas having to import food would increase prices a bit, high incomes should offset this many times over.

A nonexistent agricultural sector should have no indication of hunger. A nation with huge wealth gaps should have bigger hunger than a nation with little wealth gaps, regardless of agriculture. Besides, one can import foodstuffs.
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Postby Leutria » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:13 pm

Merconitonitopia wrote:As of present I am not buying this one bit. My score will be 70. After more than a dozen samples I haven't found any nation that high, so I'm guessing I'll be in the top 5 percent at least.
The average income of my poor is more than nine times higher than the world average. Going by this there's no reason why my nation should be anywhere near even the median for hunger.
I'm guessing this is in large part to do with my nonexistent agriculture sector, but whereas having to import food would increase prices a bit, high incomes should offset this many times over.

Interesting, because that throws out my theory of wealth gaps being a large factor. If it is based on agriculture and or the food related industries, well that makes sense for my result too but maybe not that census.

Not having much domestic food production absolutely lowers your nations food security, but I don’t think should have as a large an impact on hunger as importing food is a thing. Food security can be a valuable thing to measure, but it isn’t hunger.

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Postby Outer Sparta » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:15 pm

Leutria wrote:
Merconitonitopia wrote:As of present I am not buying this one bit. My score will be 70. After more than a dozen samples I haven't found any nation that high, so I'm guessing I'll be in the top 5 percent at least.
The average income of my poor is more than nine times higher than the world average. Going by this there's no reason why my nation should be anywhere near even the median for hunger.
I'm guessing this is in large part to do with my nonexistent agriculture sector, but whereas having to import food would increase prices a bit, high incomes should offset this many times over.

Interesting, because that throws out my theory of wealth gaps being a large factor. If it is based on agriculture and or the food related industries, well that makes sense for my result too but maybe not that census.

Not having much domestic food production absolutely lowers your nations food security, but I don’t think should have as a large an impact on hunger as importing food is a thing. Food security can be a valuable thing to measure, but it isn’t hunger.

And that's exactly the problem I have with hunger - it's too reliant on having an agriculture industry despite the fact foodstuffs can be imported to offset the lack of agriculture industry.
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Postby Merconitonitopia » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:17 pm

Sparta,
I agree, supposing that the nation's people have the wherewithal to import food (which mine definitely do). However, I suspect that the agriculture industry will be a disproportionate determinant of this index, with income ignored. I may be wrong.

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Postby Krusavich » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:24 pm

I'm usually not one to fuss up over NS stats, but yeah this one looks like it needs some serious look-overs. All the stats you'd assume would matter for ensuring everyone in your country has adequate nutrition don't seem to matter.

The Agriculture sector definitely has a major effect. Before the betas, my Agri sector was around 19k which had my hunger at around 16 or so. Pretty low. Now with a 16k Agri rating, hunger went up to 22. That's pretty crazy, and frankly not very reflective of how food distribution works in reality.

I feel like this stat is measuring...something else at the moment. Food security? Domestic food consumption maybe? Whatever it is, it really doesn't seem to be hunger.

I wonder if tax rates have something to do with this as well. I guess I just assumed a high tax rate + healthy citizenry implied they were being fed well - but maybe people don't have the disposable income for food?
Last edited by Krusavich on Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Trotterdam » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:44 pm

I agree that the effect of local agriculture industry on hunger shouldn't be very large, unless you're an Autarky (which at least Merconitonitopia isn't).

In real life, third-world nations often have significantly more people working as farmers than first-world nations, but they still struggle to make do. (I've read there are even nations that export more food than they import in the global market, despite many people in the nation still going hungry. I'm not sure about the details, but it sounds like a failure of the capitalist system.) Meanwhile, first-world nations have an easy enough time shipping food in from across the world.

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Postby Outer Sparta » Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:51 pm

Merconitonitopia wrote:Sparta,
I agree, supposing that the nation's people have the wherewithal to import food (which mine definitely do). However, I suspect that the agriculture industry will be a disproportionate determinant of this index, with income ignored. I may be wrong.

I definitely think agriculture will disproportionally affect this index. I'm opposed to how hunger is currently handled and needs more than just simply having agriculture. Developing countries that rely on an agricultural workforce still face problems of hunger due to poverty. Developed countries like Singapore don't rely on agriculture due to limited space, but they can import food. I get it if your nation isolates itself from the rest of the world coupled with lack of agriculture (which is not a good combination), but if you aren't practicing autarky, it should be assumed you have trade with the rest of the world.
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Postby Merconitonitopia » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:01 am

Trotterdam wrote:I agree that the effect of local agriculture industry on hunger shouldn't be very large, unless you're an Autarky (which at least Merconitonitopia isn't).

In real life, third-world nations often have significantly more people working as farmers than first-world nations, but they still struggle to make do. (I've read there are even nations that export more food than they import in the global market, despite many people in the nation still going hungry. I'm not sure about the details, but it sounds like a failure of the capitalist system.) Meanwhile, first-world nations have an easy enough time shipping food in from across the world.

Developing countries do often have a high proportion of people in agriculture, but they are a lot less productive because they use less capital-intensive practices which can't hold a candle to the ruthless efficiency of industrial agriculture.

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Postby Outer Sparta » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:04 am

Merconitonitopia wrote:
Trotterdam wrote:I agree that the effect of local agriculture industry on hunger shouldn't be very large, unless you're an Autarky (which at least Merconitonitopia isn't).

In real life, third-world nations often have significantly more people working as farmers than first-world nations, but they still struggle to make do. (I've read there are even nations that export more food than they import in the global market, despite many people in the nation still going hungry. I'm not sure about the details, but it sounds like a failure of the capitalist system.) Meanwhile, first-world nations have an easy enough time shipping food in from across the world.

Developing countries do often have a high proportion of people in agriculture, but they are a lot less productive because they use less capital-intensive practices which can't hold a candle to the ruthless efficiency of industrial agriculture.

I don't think NS can tell the distinction of the agriculture industry of a nation as one that's subsistence-oriented or one that's highly industrialized, making agriculture more of a moot point in this hunger analysis.
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Postby Merconitonitopia » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:06 am

I was straying off-topic a bit.
In NS the industries are measured in terms of per capita real output, so this wouldn't be a problem to begin with.

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Postby VoVoDoCo » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:15 am

Merconitonitopia wrote:As of present I am not buying this one bit. My score will be 70. After more than a dozen samples I haven't found any nation that high, so I'm guessing I'll be in the top 5 percent at least.
The average income of my poor is more than nine times higher than the world average. Going by this there's no reason why my nation should be anywhere near even the median for hunger.
I'm guessing this is in large part to do with my nonexistent agriculture sector, but whereas having to import food would increase prices a bit, high incomes should offset this many times over.

https://www.nationstates.net/nation=mer ... ensusid=85
You have 0 disposable income. Your income tax saps it all.

Only 1.5% of your budget goes to welfare. https://www.nationstates.net/nation=mer ... government
I assume that would be where your government's food budget would come from. I don't feel like doing the math to figure out your exact dollar value, but I'd wager you're not spending enough on welfare. You either need to lower taxes and let people spend more of their money, or spend more on them.
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Postby VoVoDoCo » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:19 am

Corruption may also play a small part. Corrupt governments have been known to withhold food from their citizens, be it humanitarian aid or otherwise.
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Postby VoVoDoCo » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:24 am

Outer Sparta wrote:
Merconitonitopia wrote:Sparta,
I agree, supposing that the nation's people have the wherewithal to import food (which mine definitely do). However, I suspect that the agriculture industry will be a disproportionate determinant of this index, with income ignored. I may be wrong.

I definitely think agriculture will disproportionally affect this index. I'm opposed to how hunger is currently handled and needs more than just simply having agriculture. Developing countries that rely on an agricultural workforce still face problems of hunger due to poverty. Developed countries like Singapore don't rely on agriculture due to limited space, but they can import food. I get it if your nation isolates itself from the rest of the world coupled with lack of agriculture (which is not a good combination), but if you aren't practicing autarky, it should be assumed you have trade with the rest of the world.

I hope not. The agriculture beta really knocked the wind out of my tractor's... sails.
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Postby Merconitonitopia » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:30 am

VoVoDoCo wrote:
Merconitonitopia wrote:As of present I am not buying this one bit. My score will be 70. After more than a dozen samples I haven't found any nation that high, so I'm guessing I'll be in the top 5 percent at least.
The average income of my poor is more than nine times higher than the world average. Going by this there's no reason why my nation should be anywhere near even the median for hunger.
I'm guessing this is in large part to do with my nonexistent agriculture sector, but whereas having to import food would increase prices a bit, high incomes should offset this many times over.

https://www.nationstates.net/nation=mer ... ensusid=85
You have 0 disposable income. Your income tax saps it all.

Only 1.5% of your budget goes to welfare. https://www.nationstates.net/nation=mer ... government
I assume that would be where your government's food budget would come from. I don't feel like doing the math to figure out your exact dollar value, but I'd wager you're not spending enough on welfare. You either need to lower taxes and let people spend more of their money, or spend more on them.


This game is known to not make any sense when it comes to how high-tax nations work. It's been overlooked so far, so I don't see why they would contradict that on this issue in particular.
That said, looking through nations with high taxes, you just might be right. All high-tax nations seem to have higher hunger, even if their economies good, except for the ones with high welfare spending. I'd have to look through more examples, however, before I could say that.

Also, I am amused to note that Corsaria has a hunger index of 196.51.

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Postby VoVoDoCo » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:34 am

Merconitonitopia wrote:
VoVoDoCo wrote:https://www.nationstates.net/nation=mer ... ensusid=85
You have 0 disposable income. Your income tax saps it all.

Only 1.5% of your budget goes to welfare. https://www.nationstates.net/nation=mer ... government
I assume that would be where your government's food budget would come from. I don't feel like doing the math to figure out your exact dollar value, but I'd wager you're not spending enough on welfare. You either need to lower taxes and let people spend more of their money, or spend more on them.


This game is known to not make any sense when it comes to how high-tax nations work. It's been overlooked so far, so I don't see why they would contradict that on this issue in particular.
That said, looking through nations with high taxes, you just might be right. All high-tax nations seem to have higher hunger, even if their economies good, except for the ones with high welfare spending. I'd have to look through more examples, however, before I could say that.

Also, I am amused to note that Corsaria has a hunger index of 196.51.

That's how I would code it if I were in charge. I'm sure there's a few other stats with influence, minor ones like corruption maybe, but welfare and disposable income will be the two big dogs for sure I bet.
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Postby Merconitonitopia » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:50 am

Sure. That's how you would go about it if you were making the game from scratch. The trouble is that the assumptions that you're working with contradict the way the game already works, and to be consistent you would have a bit of renovating to do.

I am amused by the idea, however, that socialist countries who top the ranks for quality of life indicators would have high levels of hunger. The party is so preoccupied with providing everyone with world-class healthcare and education that they overlook the empty shelves on the supermarkets.

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Merconitonitopia wrote:Sure. That's how you would go about it if you were making the game from scratch. The trouble is that the assumptions that you're working with contradict the way the game already works, and to be consistent you would have a bit of renovating to do.

I am amused by the idea, however, that socialist countries who top the ranks for quality of life indicators would have high levels of hunger. The party is so preoccupied with providing everyone with world-class healthcare and education that they overlook the empty shelves on the supermarkets.

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Postby Aclion » Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:11 am

Outer Sparta wrote:
Merconitonitopia wrote:As of present I am not buying this one bit. My score will be 70. After more than a dozen samples I haven't found any nation that high, so I'm guessing I'll be in the top 5 percent at least.
The average income of my poor is more than nine times higher than the world average. Going by this there's no reason why my nation should be anywhere near even the median for hunger.
I'm guessing this is in large part to do with my nonexistent agriculture sector, but whereas having to import food would increase prices a bit, high incomes should offset this many times over.

A nonexistent agricultural sector should have no indication of hunger. A nation with huge wealth gaps should have bigger hunger than a nation with little wealth gaps, regardless of agriculture. Besides, one can import foodstuffs.

importing food drives up the price significantly though, so without robust welfare or high income(and high income equality) having low agriculture(and low trout fishing) should still cause high hunger.

Merconitonitopia wrote:Sure. That's how you would go about it if you were making the game from scratch. The trouble is that the assumptions that you're working with contradict the way the game already works, and to be consistent you would have a bit of renovating to do.

I am amused by the idea, however, that socialist countries who top the ranks for quality of life indicators would have high levels of hunger. The party is so preoccupied with providing everyone with world-class healthcare and education that they overlook the empty shelves on the supermarkets.

Well when you have a command economy there's also the possibility of there being food, and people being entitled to it, but still not being able to feed people because of the logistical issues.
Last edited by Aclion on Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Bears Armed » Thu Nov 21, 2019 7:44 am

VoVoDoCo wrote:The agriculture beta really knocked the wind out of my tractor's... sails.

'Sailing tractors'? I'd love to see a picture...
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Postby Candlewhisper Archive » Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:17 am

This one is potentially contentious, as it more or less compares your food production output to your population. The design intention was to have a stat that increases by itself over time, but I admit, there's flaws to that.

The points you guys make are good ones, I may need to revisit the numbers
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Postby Aclion » Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:20 am

Candlewhisper Archive wrote:This one is potentially contentious, as it more or less compares your food production output to your population. The design intention was to have a stat that increases by itself over time, but I admit, there's flaws to that.

The points you guys make are good ones, I may need to revisit the numbers

oof. Yeah that's gonna give some weird results. I guess that explains why most people seem to be in the middle with only a few able to feed their population or having extreme hunger.
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