A few points in reply -
I wouldn’t say the front end of occupations favors raiders. It favors defenders/natives generally, in that many operations are lost in their initial days to a quick turnaround liberation before pilers are fully mobilized (Becuase pilers never get forenotice either), or to a founder returning (see TBH’s most recent op). I would, however, agree that an unbalanced area, and perhaps the only majorly unbalanced area, is the back end of occupations - if the pilers pile well, and the founder does not return, liberation becomes near impossible. At least personally, I’d be willing to look into changes that add some spice to that...as long as they did not upset the other, fairly balanced, areas too much.
You said it’s proposed raiders win a pile off generally. I don’t know what defender tactics teach, but everything I’ve been taught, experienced, and taught others is that in a true pile-off (both sides can pile at will), defenders almost *always* win. The one way to beat it is to beat them in a short time frame (to update) and end the pile off situation. The longer it is, the more likely defenders win. The simplest proof? Try holding TRR, see how long it takes for TITO to pile en masse.
Your problem statement does ignore looking at negative effects on GCR’s + reduction of effective RO powers. Overall, analysis ignores the quite possible possibility that this could also unbalance R/D in favor of early-game liberations being able to occur whenever, and on repeat. Raiders are out numbered but win on a tight trigger? Defenders switch (do they even have to switch unless banned??) and jump again, and again, and again...until boom, they could be del elect that night and begin a pile off immediately. Same goes for other early stage liberations. In the first 1-5 updates, it’s not uncommon for the numbers to be quite close, and things to come down to trigger, move, and ejection speed/ability to avoid the damned rate cap. This turns those few slots into infinite chances, with the “drawback” being starting a pile-off rather than an outright liberation. That said...a pile off raiders probably lose. Hell, you could even have a regular liberation or chase, where 2-3 people necessarily to “win” are a second slow, and *immediately* get del elect from the get-go! Pure numbers game.