[Change #7] Estimated Update Times Displayed

[Sedgistan]

Please see this announcement first.

This change would see an estimated next update time displayed on each region's page. However, this time would only be an estimate, and there would be a "window of uncertainty" for the exact update time of the region.

The intention of this change is to:

• Reduce the barriers to involvement in raiding/defending by making information on update times publicly available to all.
• Have the estimated update time displayed on regions be the most accurate information a player can obtain on a region's possible update time, negating the need for other tools.
• Prevent split-second timing from being an absolute necessity for success.

The following aspect in particular needs further discussion:

• The length of the "window of uncertainty" for each region.

Discussion in this thread is open to everyone. Please use this thread for discussion of this change only - off-topic posts, regional bickering and so on will be dealt with swiftly and punished for as necessary.

[Solorni]

I really like this proposal, any effort made to reduce the barriers into military gameplay are good

[Mahaj]

This seems like a decent idea in theory, which of course means the next poster will find a great reason why this shouldn't be implemented.

Although I'm not convinced that

Have the estimated update time displayed on regions be the most accurate information a player can obtain on a region's possible update time, negating the need for other tools.

is possible.

I know that the UDL will still use tools to help us update effectively.

So what i'm saying is while this is a good idea in theory, i'm not sure how effective it'll be.

But then, since update time information is basically readily available anyway, I don't think this idea will hurt anything.

[Astarial]

Mahaj, it's my impression that by saying that, Sedge is indicating that the daily dumps will disappear, or otherwise be rendered useless for timing.

I'd like to urge the latter and not the former, if I'm correct on that implication - the dumps are quite useful for more than simply R/D timing, and if the region dump were sorted alphabetically, instead of by update time, I believe most if not all tools could continue to function with only minor tweaks. Removing them entirely would seriously impact a lot of nifty features players have developed.

[Mahaj]

Mahaj, it's my impression that by saying that, Sedge is indicating that the daily dumps will disappear, or otherwise be rendered useless for timing.

I'd like to urge the latter and not the former, if I'm correct on that implication - the dumps are quite useful for more than simply R/D timing, and if the region dump were sorted alphabetically, instead of by update time, I believe most if not all tools could continue to function with only minor tweaks. Removing them entirely would seriously impact a lot of nifty features players have developed.

I don't see why the dumps can't just stay as they are.

Let people use the dumps if they want to, let people use the in-game time if they want to. Let the in-game time be even more accurate than the dumps if you want, but there's no reason to change the dumps as they are.

[Luna Dancing]

I think it's great.
I am coding iliterate and have no idea how the tools work.
If anything, Mahaj, it is meant for the inexperienced or new raider/defender (the later being myself... I could do better, I have been defending for a while ) and so wouldn't greatly affect yourself. Though if the times turn out to be reasonably accurate tools may not be needed as much.

I now realise that I am contradicting myself... but does this make defending/raiding too easy? Or will it be that those with the tools will be more accurate and so more successful than those without?

[Charles Cerebella]

I can't see any suggestion that the daily dumps would go, nor existing tools become useless. It seems that what is being implied is that the ability to use the dumps and so on won't be a necessity to timed raids.

Assuming that to be correct, I'd say that the absolute maximum window of uncertainty for this to be of use to relatively inexperienced people would be 1 minute. Anything more and there is no real point. To actually make this properly useful to everyone though, I'd say a window of uncertainty of around 5-10 seconds or so would make it an actually useful addition to even regular raiders and defenders.

[Mahaj]

I can't see any suggestion that the daily dumps would go, nor existing tools become useless. It seems that what is being implied is that the ability to use the dumps and so on won't be a necessity to timed raids.

That's fine.

Assuming that to be correct, I'd say that the absolute maximum window of uncertainty for this to be of use to relatively inexperienced people would be 1 minute. Anything more and there is no real point. To actually make this properly useful to everyone though, I'd say a window of uncertainty of around 5-10 seconds or so would make it an actually useful addition to even regular raiders and defenders.

I think a minute is a fairly good window.

[Sedgistan]

The daily dumps will stay; however the way that regions are updated will change, meaning that they can't be used to calculate update times any more. Ballo may want to say a bit more on this, as he's done some of the preparation on how that'd work.

[Mahaj]

The daily dumps will stay; however the way that regions are updated will change, meaning that they can't be used to calculate update times any more. Ballo may want to say a bit more on this, as he's done some of the preparation on how that'd work.

I would like to see Ballo talking about this.

Currently regions update in an order based on name, is this going to change?

Will there be a way to calculate update times outside from the times being displayed?

And why is it necessary to change the dumps like this?

[Charles Cerebella]

Aye it is rather important to know how the details of how it will work with these changes to be able to say what is needed after.

[Mahaj]

Would a region's update time (estimated) be available in the API?

[Astarial]

The daily dumps will stay; however the way that regions are updated will change, meaning that they can't be used to calculate update times any more. Ballo may want to say a bit more on this, as he's done some of the preparation on how that'd work.

Awesome. Will there be a one-time shuffle in update order when this change is implemented, or will the order remain as it is now?

Will there be a way to calculate update times outside from the times being displayed?

Yes, just as there is now - and just as we were able to do prior to the dumps. But the sheer quantity of regions and changes between updates means that calculating an exact update time will not be technically feasible, and the displayed time will be the most accurate one available.

And why is it necessary to change the dumps like this?

So that that last clause of that last sentence I said.

If the dumps remain as they are, triggering will continue to be used to the exclusion of the displayed times, and new people interested in R/D will be unable to participate, just as they are now, as their opponents will be using specialized tools to beat them every time.

[Ballotonia]

Would a region's update time (estimated) be available in the API?

Good idea!

A bit more on the intention here, beyond what is already mentioned in the OP: an uncertainty window will be provided for the update time of each region. This window will vary over time, but be similar between consecutive updates. Within this window it will be impossible to determine when exactly the region will update. It will be utterly random, so no amount of measuring the update or algorithms gathering data over time will help to determine a more accurate update time than the uncertainty window provided. This means also that regions will no longer update in the exact order as listed in the XML dump, and will even abandon the notion that regions cannot update at the same time: the timing of regions updating will be made independent from one another.

The XML dump remains available in its current format.

Ballotonia

[Mahaj]

I see.

Is there going to be a changing of the update order as well or not? I hope not.

[Ballotonia]

I see.

Is there going to be a changing of the update order as well or not? I hope not.

Not planned, and IMHO also not needed in combination with this proposal (but ya'll are free to come up with arguments to change my mind).

But keep in mind that changing the update order is a side-effect of moving to a new server (don't ask, it's complicated) and when that happens it'll happen and all are expected to adapt per usual. It has happened before, and some day it'll happen again.

Ballotonia

[Charles Cerebella]

Interesting. I'd suggest as well that regions are listed in vague update order in tag format, as new groups are unlikely to be able to utilise the API very well.

[Eist]

As indicated above, if this is to be useful at all, the estimate needs to be reflected in the API as well. Without looking at the API, newb raiders would still be stopped by defenders if spotted, and newb defender liberators would still be rejected by an invader delegate. The gap required now is only a few seconds, and I assume (and hope) that this estimate would be larger than that. If the API remained unchanged, experienced GPers would never use the estimate; they'd just use the API for up to the second update times. The only way it would be useful is if it it is combined with the Delegate Elect proposal meaning that if invasions or liberations still miss marginally, instability within a region would be triggered rather than outright rejection. I'm excited by the proposal of extending the battle between raiders and defenders within a target region beyond the current 2 seconds to up to 12 hours, or even more! This is what happened the region South America, which, while before my time, is seen by many as perhaps the greatest event in R/D. These two combined proposals are excellent developments in this game and I applaud the mods and admin for their work.

[Cerian Quilor]

If standard methods of determining UD are removed, then one minute is far, far too wide a window. I think the window should be about 30 seconds, and ideally, some way that the person giving the 'go' order could draw on something to try and 'guess' where in that window it is, or else we'll lose some of the skill involved (even with tools, there's a sort of hunch/skill based guesswork)

[Mahaj]

If standard methods of determining UD are removed, then one minute is far, far too wide a window. I think the window should be about 30 seconds, and ideally, some way that the person giving the 'go' order could draw on something to try and 'guess' where in that window it is, or else we'll lose some of the skill involved (even with tools, there's a sort of hunch/skill based guesswork)

Why do I agree with Cerian?

But i agree, it needs to be a small window, and there needs to be some way of guessing where in the window it'll fall (one way would be "well it updated 3 seconds in last time and so it'll be only two seconds difference so either 1 second in or 5 seconds in"). That way we maintain some sort of skill in the game.

If there's no skill involved in timing the mission, people will lose interest. After a while, people get tired of losing by luck and those that win by luck eventually go "this is kinda pointless".

[Eist]

That's why the Delegate Elect proposal is key. It's an effective counterbalance. I still think it's too easy to quickly eject/ban people from a region and, furthermore, it boggles my mind that two people can control the same WA nation at the same time. I see absolutely no value in it remaining and plenty benefits if the practice was banned.

[Sedgistan]

<snip> it boggles my mind that two people can control the same WA nation at the same time. I see absolutely no value in it remaining and plenty benefits if the practice was banned.

Actually, for account security reasons, that was stopped recently.

[Mahaj]

<snip> it boggles my mind that two people can control the same WA nation at the same time. I see absolutely no value in it remaining and plenty benefits if the practice was banned.

Actually, for account security reasons, that was stopped recently.

Seriously?

nice.

Actually now I have a question about that, I hope you don't mind.

Am I still allowed to make a nation, give it to someone, and they can WA it without me getting in trouble?

[A mean old man]

<snip> it boggles my mind that two people can control the same WA nation at the same time. I see absolutely no value in it remaining and plenty benefits if the practice was banned.

Actually, for account security reasons, that was stopped recently.

How in God's name do you plan to enforce this?

[Charles Cerebella]

If standard methods of determining UD are removed, then one minute is far, far too wide a window. I think the window should be about 30 seconds, and ideally, some way that the person giving the 'go' order could draw on something to try and 'guess' where in that window it is, or else we'll lose some of the skill involved (even with tools, there's a sort of hunch/skill based guesswork)

Why do I agree with Cerian?

But i agree, it needs to be a small window, and there needs to be some way of guessing where in the window it'll fall (one way would be "well it updated 3 seconds in last time and so it'll be only two seconds difference so either 1 second in or 5 seconds in"). That way we maintain some sort of skill in the game.

If there's no skill involved in timing the mission, people will lose interest. After a while, people get tired of losing by luck and those that win by luck eventually go "this is kinda pointless".

Perhaps the past three major and minor update times could be displayed somewhere instead of an estimated time so a decision would have to be made about what time to go with?