Variance added

[Ballotonia]

Greetings and Salutations,

This past Major update was the first one with extra (randomized) variance added to the Daily update. Note that per [violet]'s comments this is a band-aid measure. See: viewtopic.php?p=11027073#p11027073

Please post your comments about it. Is there now too much variance, too little? Why?

Ballotonia

[General Halcones]

Was expected that had happened. The Black Riders got 21 regions last update (with the extra variance added). I certainly noticed more variance, but not too much. The extra variance partly caused defenders many more victories through the update, and also resulted in us achieving only 21 by the end, rather than the usual 40.

It doesn't seem too bad yet, but if you added too much, I'll let you know about it.

[Zemnaya Svoboda]

I suspect that this is most likely to do little, but I will be evaluating this.

[Sichuan Pepper]

It seemed a nice amount of variance in my opinion. We were certainly able to defend more. Some were tagged with spot on timing but others missed update all together. It seemed a good balance. Lets see how it goes for a few weeks to see how it goes?

[Klaus Devestatorie]

Ballotonia, please explain why anyone should waste their time trying to set up a raid on a meaningful target now.

[Frattastan]

Invasions happened for years with similar levels of variance.

[Ballotonia]

Ballotonia, please explain why anyone should waste their time trying to set up a raid on a meaningful target now.

Please explain why you feel adding a few seconds of variance would cause the opposite. You make the claim, you explain it.

Ballotonia

[Klaus Devestatorie]

Ballotonia, please explain why anyone should waste their time trying to set up a raid on a meaningful target now.

Please explain why you feel adding a few seconds of variance would cause the opposite. You make the claim, you explain it.

Ballotonia

because you're catering to ensure one or two raider regions can't break the game, without consideration to the capabilities of the other 2 dozen of them.

[Ballotonia]

Please explain why you feel adding a few seconds of variance would cause the opposite. You make the claim, you explain it.

Ballotonia

because you're catering to ensure one or two raider regions can't break the game, without consideration to the capabilities of the other 2 dozen of them.

Changes to the game, including this band-aid measure, are not made lightly. What makes you think the interests of invaders (all of them) were not considered here? The small change in variance has come forth from this thread and others running at the same time and well before. Lots of invaders (and defenders) have weighed in. This has been going on for many months already, and I can assure you many sides have been heard. All sides have had ample opportunity to be heard.

I'm sorry you did not bother to explain how this causes the situation: "waste their time trying to set up a raid on a meaningful target now". My interest in hearing your reasoning is why I specifically asked.

Ballotonia

[General Halcones]

Klaus - despite this added variance, it is perfectly possible to time a meaningful raid properly, as long as you have decent triggers in place. 1 minute triggers may be ok - 30 second triggers surely would be.

I'll observe how the next few updates go.

[Drop Your Pants]

Well after that update i like the variance. TBR got a few and we defended a few. Certainly made things much more enjoyable. And there was one region we were all late for

[Tramiar]

Please explain why you feel adding a few seconds of variance would cause the opposite. You make the claim, you explain it.

Ballotonia

because you're catering to ensure one or two raider regions can't break the game, without consideration to the capabilities of the other 2 dozen of them.

We all raided for years with variance like this. How is it going to make anyone waste time setting up a good target? We were able to then, we should be able to now. (Granted, I haven't been on a raid since it got added back since I'm in Hippiedom, but a little variance is a good thing.)

[General Halcones]

Well after that update i like the variance. TBR got a few and we defended a few. Certainly made things much more enjoyable. And there was one region we were all late for

Yeah, sure. It was noticeable. We only got 14 hits in total, which isn't bad. I do prefer it with the extra variance, since it makes it more challenging. It is indeed more fun to have defenders trying to prevent us from putting up yet more of our expensive artwork.

P.S. DYP - didn't think you actually participated in the defence missions? Congrats

[[violet]]

it is perfectly possible to time a meaningful raid properly, as long as you have decent triggers in place.

I'm curious as to whether you think it's worth changing tactics. E.g. do you continue to attempt to enter regions within a second or two of update, even though you know variance will cause you to miss a good number of them, or do you add a safety buffer to avoid entering too late?

[Mallorea and Riva]

it is perfectly possible to time a meaningful raid properly, as long as you have decent triggers in place.

I'm curious as to whether you think it's worth changing tactics. E.g. do you continue to attempt to enter regions within a second or two of update, even though you know variance will cause you to miss a good number of them, or do you add a safety buffer to avoid entering too late?

Halc may have a different opinion but for me it would depend on the number of active defenders that night. If we outnumber them (which is rare) or if the numbers are close, I would give myself a buffer. If we're outnumbered I would aim for perfect timing.

[The XX]

Is the OP intentionally being ambiguous as to what exactly has changed?

It is not clear to me from the OP or Violet's linked post contained therein what exactly has happened.

For those of us that are unable to command and experiment with updater armies, could the OP clarify in more exact terms what he has done?

As a start, how are you quantifying "extra" variance? What has been done?

[General Halcones]

it is perfectly possible to time a meaningful raid properly, as long as you have decent triggers in place.

I'm curious as to whether you think it's worth changing tactics. E.g. do you continue to attempt to enter regions within a second or two of update, even though you know variance will cause you to miss a good number of them, or do you add a safety buffer to avoid entering too late?

If just the two of us, and plenty of defenders following, I will time it very closely. This may lead to a number of misses, but it's either that or we lose them to defenders. Personally, I like to see how close I am get them, and never really mind losing them. They don't exactly mean much.

[Frisbeeteria]

Is the OP intentionally being ambiguous as to what exactly has changed?

The OP is one of our adminstrators, and yes, he's almost certainly being deliberately ambiguous. NationStates has a long and proud history of not releasing either our code or a clear description of the effects. We think the game is more fun if you don't actually know how things work. You get to play with and against other players, not other players' spreadsheets and scripts.

[Ballotonia]

For those of us that are unable to command and experiment with updater armies, could the OP clarify in more exact terms what he has done?

For Invaders and Defenders in Gameplay, the timing of the two daily updates is important. Over time the NS system's update process has become more and more predictable, which has had its effects on Gameplay. The timing has now been made less predictable, which is described as 'more variance'.

As for the details of implementation, see Fris' post above.

Ballotonia

[The XX]

Is the OP intentionally being ambiguous as to what exactly has changed?

The OP is one of our adminstrators, and yes, he's almost certainly being deliberately ambiguous. NationStates has a long and proud history of not releasing either our code or a clear description of the effects. We think the game is more fun if you don't actually know how things work. You get to play with and against other players, not other players' spreadsheets and scripts.

If you believe this "variance" has that effect you are sadly mistaken. I assure you players will continue to use scripts and spreadsheets to tackle the update, and they will become more useful in analyzing the new scenario which you have decided to not be forthcoming about.

Your "administrator" was one of the first to start us down this trend. Defenders and their agents scan thousands of nations each and every day. I sympathize with the representative from Unknown, and feel that administrators who provide leverage to a side with already numerous capabilities in an ambiguous fashion further serve the defender interest that less and less people will be enabled to challenge their political view.

Scripts came about to tackle and destroy perceived ambiguities. The idea you are eradicating them but entering in new variables is a fundamental error, you are simply encouraging more robust scripting and creating an even smaller class less of people who really understand what is happening.

[Tramiar]

The OP is one of our adminstrators, and yes, he's almost certainly being deliberately ambiguous. NationStates has a long and proud history of not releasing either our code or a clear description of the effects. We think the game is more fun if you don't actually know how things work. You get to play with and against other players, not other players' spreadsheets and scripts.

If you believe this "variance" has that effect you are sadly mistaken. I assure you players will continue to use scripts and spreadsheets to tackle the update, and they will become more useful in analyzing the new scenario which you have decided to not be forthcoming about.

Your "administrator" was one of the first to start us down this trend. Defenders and their agents scan thousands of nations each and every day. I sympathize with the representative from Unknown, and feel that administrators who provide leverage to a side with already numerous capabilities in an ambiguous fashion further serve the defender interest that less and less people will be enabled to challenge their political view.

Scripts came about to tackle and destroy perceived ambiguities. The idea you are eradicating them but entering in new variables is a fundamental error, you are simply encouraging more robust scripting and creating an even smaller class less of people who really understand what is happening.

I think everyone is missing how we had this variance before and did fine, and the fight between raiders and defenders is more fun/more existent in general when we aren't able to move in at just the right second. I guess I could change my mind about this after raiding with it, but we'll see.

[Mallorea and Riva]

If you believe this "variance" has that effect you are sadly mistaken. I assure you players will continue to use scripts and spreadsheets to tackle the update, and they will become more useful in analyzing the new scenario which you have decided to not be forthcoming about.
-snip

See this.

Note that per [violet]'s comments this is a band-aid measure.

[The XX]

If you believe this "variance" has that effect you are sadly mistaken. I assure you players will continue to use scripts and spreadsheets to tackle the update, and they will become more useful in analyzing the new scenario which you have decided to not be forthcoming about.

Your "administrator" was one of the first to start us down this trend. Defenders and their agents scan thousands of nations each and every day. I sympathize with the representative from Unknown, and feel that administrators who provide leverage to a side with already numerous capabilities in an ambiguous fashion further serve the defender interest that less and less people will be enabled to challenge their political view.

Scripts came about to tackle and destroy perceived ambiguities. The idea you are eradicating them but entering in new variables is a fundamental error, you are simply encouraging more robust scripting and creating an even smaller class less of people who really understand what is happening.

I think everyone is missing how we had this variance before and did fine, and the fight between raiders and defenders is more fun/more existent in general when we aren't able to move in at just the right second. I guess I could change my mind about this after raiding with it, but we'll see.

You make a fair point, I simply wish to ensure that those on the raider spectrum do not fall back so far on these issues of gameplay as to lose truly important ground after new changes have been implemented and it is too late.

There are things that need to be thought about now, as the admins have made clear that while the current changes may be minor greater changes are likely on the way.

I believe it was Frisbeeteria who exaggerated the effect of this change with his "players not scripts" remark, I apologize if I extended this too far given the fact that this discussion is taking place under consideration of a - as you say - relatively innocuous change.

[General Halcones]

The Black Riders just got 17 hits, only 5 fails. The extra variance was barely a problem - just made things a little more challenging and slowed us down a bit.

It still is no where near as bad as the old update.

[Reploid Productions]

The Black Riders just got 17 hits, only 5 fails. The extra variance was barely a problem - just made things a little more challenging and slowed us down a bit.

It still is no where near as bad as the old update.

Soooo... you're saying we need to crank it up a little more?