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NS Stats - Trends, Correlations, Anti-Correlations, Oh My!

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Valentine Z
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#2-15: Compassion (X) vs Inclusiveness (Y) vs Safety (Z)

Postby Valentine Z » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:15 am

The recent requests have been added into the queue. ^^ Now that's done... let's look over the third one, and this is much more interesting!

For the first time in this stats analysis thread, we are going to analyse three of them! Compassion (X) vs Inclusiveness (Y) vs Safety (Z).

Linear-Linear-Linear:
Image


Log-Log-Linear:
Image


Special note about the Z-axis is that it is represented by the color map on the right. 0 for Safety is in red, and the max is 360, in purple. The reason that pink and beyond are not used is out of choice; due to the colormap used, there will be confusion when you go over from pink to red again. So that's why I limited the range from red, to orange, to green, to blue, to purple.

Let's look at the general trend!

Once again, we have the usual trend, it seems. It's not completely linear, but it strongly suggests that as the compassion increases, so does inclusiveness. And so does safety. Though... you can also see that even for highly Compassionate and highly Inclusive nations, they are not completely safe. Maybe this doesn't mean that it is not safe socially; maybe it's just a very, very physically hazardous place to live in. There is no discrimination, and everyone loves each other, but everyone also doesn't know what OSHA is.

Compassion (X) and Inclusiveness (Y):
  • 208 nations with < 1700th for both. The example of being compassionate and loving everyone equally!
  • 2462 nations with > 140000th for both. Not a lot of compassion, and discriminating. How racist!
  • 7 nations with < 1700th for Compassion, BUT > 140000th for Inclusiveness. Either this means that there is a really polite racism going on, or just isolation. Maybe it's like a group of tribes that has never seen an outsider and don't know what to do with them. The interpretation of your nation is up to you!
  • 23 nations with > 140000th for Compassion, BUT < 1700th for Inclusiveness. Not a lot of love, but at least they don't discriminate!

Compassion (X) and Safety (Z):
  • 174 nations with < 1700th for Both.
  • 1650 nations with > 140000th for Both.
  • 10 nations with < 1700th for Compassion, but > 140000th for Safety.
  • 33 nations with > 140000th for Compassion, but < 1700th for Safety.

Inclusiveness (Y) and Safety (Z):
  • 144 nations with < 1700th for Both.
  • 1399 nations with > 140000th for Both.
  • 26 nations with < 1700th for Inclusiveness , but > 140000th for Safety.
  • 25 nations with > 140000th for Inclusiveness , but < 1700th for Safety.

X and Y and Z:
  • 129 nations with < 1700th for all three.
  • 1149 nations with > 140000th for all three.

Highest and Lowest:
Image


Highest for all the three stats from my data trawl goes to Tzo - 447.46 compassion, 1095.90 inclusiveness, 354.45 safety.
Lowest for Compassion: Northern Borland... Again.
Lowest for Inclusiveness: Corfad
Lowest for Safety: Edgemaster

That is it for now! With Python and Matplot, the 3D data is now possible and it's pretty darn beautiful, I must say.
Last edited by Valentine Z on Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:18 am, edited 2 times in total.


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Valentine Z
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#2-16: Taxation (Y) vs HDI (X)

Postby Valentine Z » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:14 am

*Checks calendar* How long has it been? When did I promise to post again? Damn, it's been a while, I apologise! So... let's get started right away! The 16th take - Taxation vs HDI!

Linear-Linear:
Image
Image


Log-Log:
Image


Linear-Log:
Image


Log-Linear:
Image


Linear Correlation Equation: Y = 0.9049377940133411 X - 16.65697624928138.

So err.... there does not seem to be a fixed or a strong correlation between the two stats. In fact, it feels like the Taxation is all over the place whether the HDI is low or high. Look closer, however, and you will see that the nations on the lower end of the HDI tend to have lower tax rates, while higher HDI nations tend to cluster around the > 100 Tax Rate range.

Does that mean that nations with high HDI have high tax rates? Well.... not all the time, but they are rather small in terms of numbers.

- High Tax Rate (< 1700th), High HDI (< 1700th): 167 nations.
- Low Tax Rate (> 140000th), Low HDI (> 140000th): 277 nations.

- High Tax Rate (< 1700th), Low HDI (> 140000th): 1 nation - Dragons Power.
- Low Tax Rate (> 140000th), High HDI (< 1700th): 8 nations.

And once again, the highest and the lowests!

Image

Congratulations to Drasnia for the Lowest Tax Rate and giving people a very, very generous payout. Tzo for having the highest taxation rate that would make IRS jealous. Yaorozu for having the highest HDI along with a rather high tax rate for the government services. Aersoldorf for having the lowest HDI and, ICly, having the most undeveloped nation if HDI is an indicator.

In my own conclusion, the high tax rates are not necessary for good HDI and development of a nation as a whole, as those 8 nations have proved. However, it would seem that you still need a pretty manageable tax rate, i.e. money from your people, in order for your nation to run smoothly!


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Bears Armed
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Postby Bears Armed » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:22 am

Guess who's an exception again? Top 17% for HDI, bottom 01% for taxation...

:lol:
The Confederated Clans of the Free Bears of Bears Armed
(includes The Ursine NorthLands) Demonym = Bear[s]; adjective = ‘Urrsish’.
Our population is approximately 20 million. We do have a national government, although its role is strictly limited. Economy = thriving. Those aren't "biker gangs", they're our traditional cross-Clan 'Warrior Societies'... and are generally respected, not feared.
Author of some GA Resolutions, via Bears Armed Mission; subject of an SC resolution.
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Valentine Z
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Postby Valentine Z » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:40 am

Bears Armed wrote:Guess who's an exception again? Top 17% for HDI, bottom 01% for taxation...

:lol:


Seems like you are poised for another exception as well: Little to no Law Enforcement / Bottom 1%, but the Crime Rates are actually pretty low / Top 68%.

:P
Last edited by Valentine Z on Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Bears Armed
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Postby Bears Armed » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:44 am

Valentine Z wrote:
Bears Armed wrote:Guess who's an exception again? Top 17% for HDI, bottom 01% for taxation...

:lol:


Seems like you are poised for another exception as well: Little to no Law Enforcement / Bottom 1%, but the Crime Rates are actually pretty low / Top 68%.

:P

The 'Crime' stat is "broken" anyway: It measures actions against what the Issue Editors think should count as crimes for that purpose, rather than actual offences against the law of the land.
Promote the gambling industry: 'Crime' goes up.
Legalise recreational drugs: 'Crime' goes up.
Legalise duelling: 'Crime' goes up.
:roll:
The Confederated Clans of the Free Bears of Bears Armed
(includes The Ursine NorthLands) Demonym = Bear[s]; adjective = ‘Urrsish’.
Our population is approximately 20 million. We do have a national government, although its role is strictly limited. Economy = thriving. Those aren't "biker gangs", they're our traditional cross-Clan 'Warrior Societies'... and are generally respected, not feared.
Author of some GA Resolutions, via Bears Armed Mission; subject of an SC resolution.
Factbook. We have more than 70 MAPS. Visitors' Guide.
The IDU's WA Drafting Room is open to help you.
Author of issues #429, 712, 729, 934, 1120, 1152.

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Valentine Z
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Postby Valentine Z » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:54 am

Bears Armed wrote:The 'Crime' stat is "broken" anyway: It measures actions against what the Issue Editors think should count as crimes for that purpose, rather than actual offences against the law of the land.
Promote the gambling industry: 'Crime' goes up.
Legalise recreational drugs: 'Crime' goes up.
Legalise duelling: 'Crime' goes up.
:roll:

Ahh, I didn't know that, actually.. It really be like that sometimes, I guess. :/


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Leutria
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Postby Leutria » Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:15 pm

I think the idea/explanation is it is what the WA census takers consider a crime :P

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Valentine Z
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Postby Valentine Z » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:46 pm

Quick update to announce the good news that I managed to get and extract the Government Expenditure neatly!

Extract the % Expenditure of the nations (military, education, health, etc, etc) - Requested by Candlewhisper Archive.


So it's working fine, but just that there is now a disparity between the old data I got (the 2nd Trawl), and this one, so... I will use it for the 3rd Trawl when I want to get a new set of data, or when Violet / Admins release a new Beta / Stat!

Here's a Sneak Peek that I am going to use. ^^
Image


Shoutout and thanks to CWA once again for the request. It didn't bother me, no worries! My apologies for being late with it. ^^;


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Valentine Z
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#2-17: Crime (Y) vs Law Enforcement (X)

Postby Valentine Z » Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:24 pm

Picking up the pace this time, we are moving on to the next analysis! Crime compared with Law Enforcement. At least, what WA considers a crime, which we will get into later.

Linear-Linear:
Image


Log-Log:
Image


Linear-Log:
Image


Log-Linear:
Image


Linear Regression Equation: Y = -0.0008601012521452345 X + 8.587938409386764

There is not a lot of linear correlation, but there is certainly a trend with exceptions scattered along the way. More Law and Police around, less crime, it is pretty simple... at first. Let's look at the groups first as always:

- High Law (< 1700th), High Crime (< 1700th): 0 nations, actually. There is one nation, however - Monacus. 918th for Law Enforcement, 4661st for Crime.
- Low Law (> 140000th), Low Crime (> 140000th): 139 nations.

- High Law (< 1700th), Low Crime (> 140000th): 217 nations.
- Low Law (> 140000th), High Crime (< 1700th): 213 nations.

Highest and Lowest:

Image

So... there are quite a few things to talk about from here. You can see that most of the common occurrences are High Law / Low Crime and Low Law / High Crime. This is a rather inverse effect and that in itself is a logical trend. Then came Low Law and Low Crime... Do you ever wonder why? I don't really have the exact answers, but we can definitely make some assumptions with this. The Issue Editors and Admin probably know more, but as normal players? Let's look into it.

- The Law Enforcement Stat does not count into Martial Law nations, i.e. places where police are replaced by the military and it is rather dictatorial. It is a step up from the normal dictatorship with the police; this time, you have the army making and becoming the law. I have done this before by accident and yes, the Law Enforcement actually went to 0, while the Crime is more or less unaffected.

- The Crime... What exactly is crime? I am sure that it does not apply to all the nations. As Bears Armed has stated, what does WA see as crime? Drug usage? Dueling? Gambling? But these things are legal in some of the nations around NationStates, isn't it? If you legalise drug usage, Crime should drop, isn't it? Hmm, perhaps. Is Crime not those stated above, and rather, follow-ups? That itself is possible as well. By legalising drugs, you could stereotypically assume that people are short on cash and thus started robbing and stealing for more money.

- Low Law, High Crime... does this apply to Anarchy nations as well? Total Anarchy is where there is no Law of any kind, and you can do anything you want, i.e. nothing is a Crime. Is WA measuring Crime by what these nations consider Crime? Perhaps not. Perhaps they are using their international standard of what is a Crime, which results in these inaccuracies.

There are quite a lot of stuff to think over for this one - what constitutes as a crime? Is the lack of law enforcement means lack of police? The latter seems to be so with the aforementioned Martial Law thing.


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Trotterdam
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Postby Trotterdam » Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:02 pm

Valentine Z wrote:Then came Low Law and Low Crime... Do you ever wonder why? I don't really have the exact answers, but we can definitely make some assumptions with this.
One of the more common sights on NationStates nation descriptions is "Crime is totally unknown, thanks to progressive social policies in education and welfare.".

So I think the results are clear: law enforcement is effective at stopping crime, but it's by no means the only way.

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Valentine Z
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Postby Valentine Z » Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:42 pm

Trotterdam wrote:
Valentine Z wrote:Then came Low Law and Low Crime... Do you ever wonder why? I don't really have the exact answers, but we can definitely make some assumptions with this.
One of the more common sights on NationStates nation descriptions is "Crime is totally unknown, thanks to progressive social policies in education and welfare.".

So I think the results are clear: law enforcement is effective at stopping crime, but it's by no means the only way.

Oh yeah, I forgot about the social policies and stuff... Hmm, this could be used to add a third axis - Welfare, Education, Defense Forces (to see if the army is doing the Martial Law), Drug Usage...


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Betelgeuse Alliance
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Postby Betelgeuse Alliance » Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:39 am

Valentine Z wrote:
Trotterdam wrote:One of the more common sights on NationStates nation descriptions is "Crime is totally unknown, thanks to progressive social policies in education and welfare.".

So I think the results are clear: law enforcement is effective at stopping crime, but it's by no means the only way.

Oh yeah, I forgot about the social policies and stuff... Hmm, this could be used to add a third axis - Welfare, Education, Defense Forces (to see if the army is doing the Martial Law), Drug Usage...


There might be more to it though, since (according to my pure stats at least) I have decently high welfare and public education, completely non-existent law enforcement, a completely non-existent military, yet it doesn't say anything about me having "progressive social policies in education and welfare". It just bluntly states that "Crime, especially youth-related, is totally unknown" (I think you can ignore the "especially youth-related" part though, since the only requirement for this description seems to be having a Youth Rebelliousness score below zero).

And is it really true that Drug Use may have an impact on having "progressive social policies in education and welfare" or not?
An intergalactic alliance aiming to protect its own peace and liberty, NOT an empire!

I only use NS Stats very loosely - I mainly use factbooks - TG's welcome

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Valentine Z
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Postby Valentine Z » Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:26 pm

Betelgeuse Alliance wrote:
Valentine Z wrote:Oh yeah, I forgot about the social policies and stuff... Hmm, this could be used to add a third axis - Welfare, Education, Defense Forces (to see if the army is doing the Martial Law), Drug Usage...


There might be more to it though, since (according to my pure stats at least) I have decently high welfare and public education, completely non-existent law enforcement, a completely non-existent military, yet it doesn't say anything about me having "progressive social policies in education and welfare". It just bluntly states that "Crime, especially youth-related, is totally unknown" (I think you can ignore the "especially youth-related" part though, since the only requirement for this description seems to be having a Youth Rebelliousness score below zero).

And is it really true that Drug Use may have an impact on having "progressive social policies in education and welfare" or not?

Hmm, I could certainly see if there are trends for Recreational Drug Use (X) against Welfare (Y) and maybe Public Education (Z). Might be a bit tedious, but nevertheless, it can be done!

Problem is running through Crime against the things you think that affect it. It's not because of the data, the data itself is fine; it was more of the fact that trying to visualise more than 3 axes is gonna be disastrous. So we will have to take it slow.

-----

As of the time being, I am temporarily closing the requests. Don't worry, I am not killing this project. I know I have been busy, but I can still do the trend analysis fine.

The reason I am closing is that I am confident that by the time I hit the last request, a Beta or two should be coming out. Otherwise, no worries. I am actually trying to get the 3rd Trawl going, possibly with more nations, as well as with the Government Expenditure being added in.

I thought of adding Causes of Death, Economy, and maybe a few other things, but they are separate API calls and thus might slow down the process a little. Government Expenditure and NS Stats are already 2 separate API calls, so it gets a little slow, but still manageable. ^^

Thank you all for being patient with me and for all the support so far! ♥ Like I said, long-term project, so I am not killing it any time soon.


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SherpDaWerp
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Postby SherpDaWerp » Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:48 pm

Valentine Z wrote:I thought of adding Causes of Death, Economy, and maybe a few other things, but they are separate API calls and thus might slow down the process a little. Government Expenditure and NS Stats are already 2 separate API calls, so it gets a little slow, but still manageable. ^^

You can query any number of Nation shards, you just have to make sure census is the last one in the URL. Adding parameters to a shard breaks out of the "list" of shards, and there's no way to go back up the chain, so you have to make sure the shard with parameters is on the end of the list. There's only one nation shard that takes parameters, and it's census. Theoretically, you could put every shard, and then census on the end with "scale=all", to get literally every piece of information.

https://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/ap ... ;scale=all
That ^ returns Industry breakdown (private, gov, public, black market); Causes of Death; Government Expenditures (percentage); and every census score.
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Valentine Z
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Postby Valentine Z » Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:59 pm

SherpDaWerp wrote:
Valentine Z wrote:I thought of adding Causes of Death, Economy, and maybe a few other things, but they are separate API calls and thus might slow down the process a little. Government Expenditure and NS Stats are already 2 separate API calls, so it gets a little slow, but still manageable. ^^

You can query any number of Nation shards, you just have to make sure census is the last one in the URL. Adding parameters to a shard breaks out of the "list" of shards, and there's no way to go back up the chain, so you have to make sure the shard with parameters is on the end of the list. There's only one nation shard that takes parameters, and it's census. Theoretically, you could put every shard, and then census on the end with "scale=all", to get literally every piece of information.

https://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/ap ... ;scale=all
That ^ returns Industry breakdown (private, gov, public, black market); Causes of Death; Government Expenditures (percentage); and every census score.

Oh, Fish-... I forgot that was a thing! :P

Thank you so very much, my friend! This is gonna streamline things for me. Might need to rewrite the code, but it will be cleaner now! :hug:


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Postby Trotterdam » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:08 pm

SherpDaWerp wrote:Adding parameters to a shard breaks out of the "list" of shards, and there's no way to go back up the chain, so you have to make sure the shard with parameters is on the end of the list.
You don't, actually. Parameters know which shard they're attached to, so they'll be interpreted correctly even if you write them out of order. Or perhaps I should say: write them out of order, you can. See? It works in English too.

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SherpDaWerp
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Postby SherpDaWerp » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:00 pm

Trotterdam wrote:
SherpDaWerp wrote:Adding parameters to a shard breaks out of the "list" of shards, and there's no way to go back up the chain, so you have to make sure the shard with parameters is on the end of the list.
You don't, actually. Parameters know which shard they're attached to, so they'll be interpreted correctly even if you write them out of order. Or perhaps I should say: write them out of order, you can. See? It works in English too.

Ok, but my point was this:
https://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/ap ... eaths+govt
doesn't work, but this:
https://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/ap ... ;scale=all
does. You can't put parameters on a shard and then go back to more shards.
Last edited by SherpDaWerp on Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Trotterdam » Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:38 am

Well, duh. This works fine though:
https://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/api.cgi?nation=testlandia&q=census+sectors+deaths+govt;scale=all
Don't be fooled by the semicolons. They're really just synonyms that do the same thing as ampersands.

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Postby SherpDaWerp » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:33 pm

Trotterdam wrote:
Well, duh. This works fine though:
https://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/api.cgi?nation=testlandia&q=census+sectors+deaths+govt;scale=all
Don't be fooled by the semicolons. They're really just synonyms that do the same thing as ampersands.

Ohhhhhh. I had no idea that worked, I thought parameters had to be directly following the shard they apply to. Evidently it also works if you have multiple parameters on different shards:
https://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/ap ... ss_Gallows
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#2-18: Law Enforcement (Y) vs Defense Forces (X)

Postby Valentine Z » Tue May 05, 2020 5:32 pm

Picking up the slack again! I am sorry for my extremely long absence! Things have gotten a lot hectic recently, so... I am working on the new data trawler in the meantime thanks to Trotterdam and Sherp, but that will be for another time, when we get the new stats / Beta, or... maybe soon, I don't know. ^^; Anyway, today's trend will be - Law Enforcement vs Defense Forces!

Linear-Linear:
Image


Log-Log:
Image


Linear-Log:
Image


Log-Linear:
Image


The linear regression line is 0.355624 x + 1373.57, 6 significant figures.

So... as you can see, it's a positive trend between Law Enforcement and Defense Forces (which I will term as Military for this post), meaning that with a bigger military presence, it is also expected of a nation to have a bigger police force. As always, there are exceptions!

High Police Force (<1700th), High Military (<1700th): 86 nations.
As what was said. These nations have a staggeringly huge military, along with a police force, that keeps order. It's like a typical city in Grand Theft Auto; if the police cannot handle it, the military will come to you as a major threat.

Low Police Force (>140000th), Low Military (>140000th): 1510 nations.
Nations with both low law enforcement and militaries. This would either mean that the nation has alternative ways of solving the crime problem and to maintain the law and order... or in other cases, no law at all!

High Police Force (<1700th), Low Military (>140000th): 4 nations.
The four special nations with a small military (or even non-existent) but the police is omnipresent and perhaps there is even a breakdown of a fine line between a police officer and the military. This could be a reminiscent of places like GTA 4's Liberty City whereby there is no military presence in the game, and even the most dangerous of criminals are handled by the SWAT or the FBI, all equipped with military-like weaponry and equipment (such as attack helicopters). If wanted, perhaps the police forces from these nations can invade another nation, and they WILL come out victorious!

Low Police Force (>14000th), High Military (<1700th): 15 nations.
The 15 nations with an insanely huge military, but no police officers in the typical sense. I would assume that this means law enforcement in the WA census convention, in the sense that there are little to no officers in blue, and the nation is perhaps either under a Marshal Law, or has the paramilitary/military watching over things. Either way, a tank is probably one of the most common ways to deal with shoplifting!

The top and bottom scorers from the data (as of the time of obtaining it):
Image
Last edited by Valentine Z on Tue May 05, 2020 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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#2-18: Crime (Y) vs Safety (X)

Postby Valentine Z » Thu May 07, 2020 10:25 am

New features and trends that I want to do other than just NS Stats, have been very, very promising! I hope that we can look into more... niche trends, as we go along. You will see what I mean! For those that I have told you about it... let's keep it a little secret. ;)

With that said, today's trend will be - Crime vs Safety!

Linear-Linear:
Image
Image


Log-Log:
Image


Linear-Log:
Image


Log-Linear:
Image


The linear regression line is -0.139840 x + 17.0999, 6 significant figures.

So... as you can see, it's a rather unusual and fascinating trend! You will see that the general correlation is as follows: Crime decreases as the nation gets safer! But how it decreases is the one that is rather.. interesting. From 0 < X (Safety) < 10, the crime decreases linearly at a certain rate. Then come to 10 < X < 100, and it decreases a bit gently, sort of like a weird ReLU function. You can also see on the log-log graph that there is certainly some... unusual trends going on; Crime seems to decrease exponentially, then it tends to flat out as Safety increases. And now, the unusual anomalies!

High Safety (<1700th), High Crime (<1700th): Only 1 nation - Nation of Quebec!
Very certainly an interesting outlier, at least for the data that I have gathered! 180.03 for Safety, BUT also with 41.5 crimes per hour! That's a rather strange set of stats, you say! Maybe it's just that the nation has a lot of safety standards (that would make OSHA proud)? Perhaps the crimes are mostly misdemeanors? Maybe NoQ is just notorious for jaywalking, which in turn is regarded as a crime? Or illegal parking. Either way, congratulations for being the only nation in this trawl that has this unusual set of stats!

Low Safety (>140000th), Low Crime (>140000th): 648 nations.
The nations with no regards for personal safety and at the same time, no crime as well. This, too, can make some sense if you think about it. Maybe they are just notorious for poor maintenance skills that make their world a constant hazard. Maybe the people are all law-abiding individuals, but it is either: Acts of God, governments, etc., who are actively trying to kill someone.

High Safety (<1700th), Low Crime (>140000th): 279 nations.
The usual standard affair! Not a lot of crime and murdering going on, so you are pretty much safe in these nations!

Low Safety (>14000th), High Crime (<1700th): 255 nations.
These are the places where crimes are a threat to you. Murder, arson, burglary, homicide.... all of this makes these nations a horrible place, and will make you wish you would stay at home. Also of note is that this might not necessarily be crimes in the conventional sense. Perhaps the government is a dictatorship, and couple with the govt. out to get you, you also have your usual riots and protests that always turn ugly. Maybe the riots count as a crime!

The top and bottom scorers from the data (as of the time of obtaining it):
Image

The reason for there only being two nations is simple: Tzo has the highest in safety AND crime, and vice-versa applies to Edgemaster.
Last edited by Valentine Z on Thu May 07, 2020 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Postby Zentata » Thu May 07, 2020 11:28 am

That's an interesting one!
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Postby Trotterdam » Thu May 07, 2020 2:41 pm

The interesting thing from the zoomed-in graph is that there seem to be two separate regressing lines/curves which most nations cluster around. First is the top one, with a "kink" at about Safety=7.7, Crime=23.5, but still continuous and decreasing. These are the ones you describe, where crime is what's causing people to be unsafe.

Second, however, there's a conspicious second population where Crime is very low, but Safety can be all over the place seemingly without regard for Crime. These are the nations where crime isn't the main threat to people's safety. Most likely, many of them are oppressive governments where crime is kept low through intense police brutality. They're too dense on the graph to simply be outliers.

There is a distinct gap in between. There are far fewer nations near the 20 Safety, 10 Crime point than either 20 Safety, 20 Crime or 20 Safety, 2 Crime.

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Postby Valentine Z » Thu May 07, 2020 8:38 pm

Trotterdam wrote:The interesting thing from the zoomed-in graph is that there seem to be two separate regressing lines/curves which most nations cluster around. First is the top one, with a "kink" at about Safety=7.7, Crime=23.5, but still continuous and decreasing. These are the ones you describe, where crime is what's causing people to be unsafe.

Second, however, there's a conspicious second population where Crime is very low, but Safety can be all over the place seemingly without regard for Crime. These are the nations where crime isn't the main threat to people's safety. Most likely, many of them are oppressive governments where crime is kept low through intense police brutality. They're too dense on the graph to simply be outliers.

There is a distinct gap in between. There are far fewer nations near the 20 Safety, 10 Crime point than either 20 Safety, 20 Crime or 20 Safety, 2 Crime.

Ahh yeah, funny you mentioned that! By default, there are two regression lines, but my white dotted regression line only accounts for the entire trend, so... there are no sections involved. I wonder if I should do Moving Averages, but I am not too well-versed with that.

And yes, seems to be the case of a brutal government, and like you said, maybe the crimes that happened are "thought crimes", for instance, that... while oppressive, won't affect another citizen's safety.

E.g. Thinking too hard as a crime won't compromise someone's safety, as opposed to a bank robbery or murder.

I seemed to have missed talking about the gaps this time, so my bad on that! ^^;
Last edited by Valentine Z on Thu May 07, 2020 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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#2-19: Arms Manufacturing (Y) vs Defense Forces (X)

Postby Valentine Z » Sat May 09, 2020 12:11 am

As scheduled, today's trend will be - Arms Manufacturing vs Defense Forces!

Linear-Linear:
Image


Log-Log:
Image


Linear-Log:
Image


Log-Linear:
Image


The linear regression line is 1.53703 x + 1111.64, 6 significant figures. This suggests that starting at 1111.64 units of Arms Manufacturing, nations gain additional 1.53703 units per Defense Forces. Well, implied!

The trend is still straightforward - as DF (Defense Forces) increases, so is the AM (Arms Manufacturing Industry). This implies that as nations have bigger armies, they also tend to make weapons not just for themselves but for the others as well. Either that, or they have a good import of weapons from other nations. After all, you need guns to arm your army! Of note is that initially, the AM numbers can fluctuate with quite a lot of slack in-between, but as DF increases, the AM also narrows down in terms of possible values. This explains the Log-Log graph, for instance, having a triangular shape. These two stats don't really have a lot in terms of exceptions, so let's take a look!

High DF (<1700th), High AM (<1700th): 107 nations.
The usual trend of "Big army, big guns"! These are the nations that have outrageously large armies, along with an AM that not only supplies their own army, but also to external forces. It's like Ammu-Nation from the GTA Franchise; you can arm small countries (hell, even superpowers) with this amount of weapons you are churning out.

Low DF (>140000th), Low AM (>140000th): 1721 nations.
The peaceful nations! Don't really have an army, and the arms industry is also rather lackluster, if it even exists at all. Maybe they do have a police force.

High DF (<1700th), Low AM (>140000th): 5 nations.
Big army, but not a lot of guns exported out. It's perhaps reserved for dictatorships that do not sell their weapons to just about anyone else. As much as it can make sense, it is surprisingly a very small exception band, compared to other stat pairings. Very strange.

Low DF (>14000th), High AM (<1700th): 3 nations.
This can also make sense, if you think about it. Little to no military strength, but the arms manufacturing is very, very booming (perhaps even literally). Maybe it's just one of those nations that has very big police forces. Paramilitaries also came back into mind. Perhaps I might add a third axis with Law Enforcement into the graph.

The top and bottom scorers from the data (as of the time of obtaining it):
Image

Tzo has the lowest AM (going by the negative indexes), Errinundera has the lowest DF, and Illumitrol earns the title of "Highest DF and AM in my 2nd Trawl".
Last edited by Valentine Z on Sat May 09, 2020 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.


Photography Stuff.
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If you are reading my sig, I want you to have the best day ever ! You are worth it, do not let anyone get you down !
Glory to De Geweldige Sierlijke Katachtige Utopia en Zijne Autonome Machten ov Valentine Z !
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Clarissa mistaken for Smurf/Avatar: 14
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• World Map is a cat playing with Australia.

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