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Kurnugia
Diplomat
 
Posts: 934
Founded: Feb 21, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby Kurnugia » Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:57 am

Drasnia wrote:
Trotterdam wrote:but there's nothing I can do about that.

Except that you're the one that published and hosts the data.

My problem with tools like this is that there are problems no matter if they're accurate or not. If they're accurate, they unbalance the game where players don't have to expend any effort in order to optimally answer issues.

If they aren't accurate, then you're creating unnecessary work for the editors which isn't fair to them.

No matter what, you're taking the fun out of the game for people who don't even use it.

^ This. It is supposed to be a nation simulator. And I am honestly struggleing to see any nation with an oracle of delphi that can predict the result of a desicion.
Big Sister has always been Big Sister


AUTHOR OF ISSUE 1201

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Minoa
Senator
 
Posts: 4805
Founded: Oct 05, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Minoa » Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:07 am

Drasnia wrote:I feel sorry for the editors. They got a break from people complaining about NSIndex's predictions not being accurate, now they're going to have to deal with people complaining because their result didn't perfectly match this one's.

It seems our failed attempt at statistical effects only emboldened others to continue the hunt for the ‘holy grail’ of issues.
Mme A. d'Oiseau, B.A. (State of Minoa)

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Drasnia
Minister
 
Posts: 2601
Founded: Feb 02, 2012
Ex-Nation

Postby Drasnia » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:53 am

Dwarfpolis wrote:EDIT: YOU, yes YOU the reader, archive this with archive.is regularly in case this gets taken down

Are you really that paranoid that what you're about to write is going to break the rules and be removed by the mods? I mean, you have the power to choose what you type. Let's see what you've said.

Dwarfpolis wrote:What's it to you that people can enjoy the game in a way that doesn't affect your masochistic gaming philosophy? For one I'm glad that restricting drones to law enforcement authorities won't drop my science, in one option harder than funding space death rays and particle accelerators did in the sum of multiple issues, anymore, because I know to avoid such answers now.

My 'philosophy' is not masochistic. I love this game and I want other people to love it too. That's why I help people with understanding issues, writing their own, etc. But in a game where there is competition - in NS's case, world and regional rankings - there needs to be a high skill ceiling. Anybody can answer issues, but it takes understanding the underlying mechanics of the simulation to do it efficiently. Attempts like this, if they become accurate, reduce the skill ceiling to near 0 and makes attaining high rankings far more dependent on how long you've been on the site and far less on your skill in understanding and answering the issues. This takes away any fun in achieving high rankings for people like myself. If/when this game becomes a spreadsheet simulator, I'll quit answering issues plain and simple.
See You Space Cowboy...

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Chan Island
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5541
Founded: Nov 26, 2015
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Chan Island » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:02 am

I'll have to agree, ultimately.

Unless the oracle at Delphi is back in business, or there is a supercomputer around I don't know about, then no nation is able to exactly predict every outcome of their decisions.

Eh, but to each their own I guess. I won't use this resource personally, however I admire how much work must have gone into this. And there is a demographic on this site that will certainly appreciate this.

EDIT: Oh, and since this nation is already basically completely random when it comes to issues, I will enjoy deliberately answering issues in choices that so far the script has not picked up. :p
Last edited by Chan Island on Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Dwarfpolis
Envoy
 
Posts: 262
Founded: Oct 12, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby Dwarfpolis » Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:00 am

Drasnia wrote:
Dwarfpolis wrote:EDIT: YOU, yes YOU the reader, archive this with archive.is regularly in case this gets taken down

Are you really that paranoid that what you're about to write is going to break the rules and be removed by the mods? I mean, you have the power to choose what you type. Let's see what you've said.

Dwarfpolis wrote:What's it to you that people can enjoy the game in a way that doesn't affect your masochistic gaming philosophy? For one I'm glad that restricting drones to law enforcement authorities won't drop my science, in one option harder than funding space death rays and particle accelerators did in the sum of multiple issues, anymore, because I know to avoid such answers now.

My 'philosophy' is not masochistic. I love this game and I want other people to love it too. That's why I help people with understanding issues, writing their own, etc. But in a game where there is competition - in NS's case, world and regional rankings - there needs to be a high skill ceiling. Anybody can answer issues, but it takes understanding the underlying mechanics of the simulation to do it efficiently. Attempts like this, if they become accurate, reduce the skill ceiling to near 0 and makes attaining high rankings far more dependent on how long you've been on the site and far less on your skill in understanding and answering the issues. This takes away any fun in achieving high rankings for people like myself. If/when this game becomes a spreadsheet simulator, I'll quit answering issues plain and simple.


I. I was saying archive the issues result link. How can you even come to think that I meant my post? Did somebody tell you that?

II. A lot of issues are really bugged out or give illogical results, some in ways acknowledged by the devs but not to be solved any time soon. Surveillance makes your country less safe because it makes corruption increase. Building tourist resorts damages tourism because of environmental impact. I lost more science restricting drones to the police than I gained funding space weaponry and particle accelerators.

The competitive part of NS is very poorly optimized, I welcome the leak of stat results so issues players can make their comfytopias in peace from booby-trapped issues, deceiving options, wildcard stat calculations and just plain bad, motivated writing in a few issues.

EDIT: And the point you make is terrible since stats are already skewed in favor of the older nations, unless you believe you could pass Pax Aurea's lifespan in 5 years starting from scratch.
Last edited by Dwarfpolis on Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
You have read this siggy just so you could know that Trotterdam is a real Left-Leaning College State and a real hero

Ok this austerity bit will hurt my intelligence stat a little and this industrial option will bite the environment but it doesn't seem anything to bAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
https://i.imgur.com/KwZK4Mm.jpg

When you finally got out of your good stat depression and the mods will boost your HDI and lifespan into 91+ with the new beta
https://i.imgur.com/C5nuNya.jpg

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Egyptian Pharocracy
Spokesperson
 
Posts: 144
Founded: Feb 20, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Egyptian Pharocracy » Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:38 am

Drasnia wrote:*snip*

My 'philosophy' is not masochistic. I love this game and I want other people to love it too. That's why I help people with understanding issues, writing their own, etc. But in a game where there is competition - in NS's case, world and regional rankings - there needs to be a high skill ceiling. Anybody can answer issues, but it takes understanding the underlying mechanics of the simulation to do it efficiently. Attempts like this, if they become accurate, reduce the skill ceiling to near 0 and makes attaining high rankings far more dependent on how long you've been on the site and far less on your skill in understanding and answering the issues.


I love this game or I wouldn't still be playing it after more than a year. Certainly not to the extent that I've been playing it.

This is a useful tool. It won't detract from my enjoyment of NationStates, nor will it ruin the game for me. In fact, it will enhance my enjoyment of the game.

Drasnia wrote:This takes away any fun in achieving high rankings for people like myself. If/when this game becomes a spreadsheet simulator, I'll quit answering issues plain and simple.


Your prerogative.

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Kurnugia
Diplomat
 
Posts: 934
Founded: Feb 21, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby Kurnugia » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:20 pm

Egyptian Pharocracy wrote:This is a useful tool. It won't detract from my enjoyment of NationStates, nor will it ruin the game for me. In fact, it will enhance my enjoyment of the game.


Here is the thing: As soon as there is a multiplayer aspect, which with the comparative stats you have, you are influencing the enjoyment of other players.
Big Sister has always been Big Sister


AUTHOR OF ISSUE 1201

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Jutsa
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5129
Founded: Dec 06, 2015
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Jutsa » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:23 pm

Eh true but lets face it, no one's beating some of those head-of-the-line players and I'm pretty sure most of the people who'll see this are GI folks like us,
many of which already have our own personal educated guesses on what options best suit our goals anyway. :lol:
Here is a list containing a bunch of factbooks I created that are Got Issues? related.
>List of issue ideas
>List of missing issues/options
>List of accepted issues~
^ I know this is hardly a flashy signature, but at least I have one now.

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Drasnia
Minister
 
Posts: 2601
Founded: Feb 02, 2012
Ex-Nation

Postby Drasnia » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:36 pm

Kurnugia wrote:
Egyptian Pharocracy wrote:This is a useful tool. It won't detract from my enjoyment of NationStates, nor will it ruin the game for me. In fact, it will enhance my enjoyment of the game.


Here is the thing: As soon as there is a multiplayer aspect, which with the comparative stats you have, you are influencing the enjoyment of other players.

Bingo.
See You Space Cowboy...

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Sacara
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1755
Founded: May 13, 2014
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Sacara » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:38 pm

The comments on this thread have derailed what it’s all about, so I’d like to bring it back. Nice job, Trotterdam. This must’ve taken a little work to do. :clap:
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Ransium
Issues Moderator
 
Posts: 6626
Founded: Oct 17, 2006
Democratic Socialists

Postby Ransium » Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:59 pm

Since their have been questions about legality, I would like to state unambiguously that what Trotterdam is doing is legal by our site rules (Caveat: Not a techie so I cannot speak to the legality of the script he is using, but the final product is legal.)

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Fauxia
Senator
 
Posts: 4685
Founded: Dec 22, 2016
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Fauxia » Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:33 pm

I think I'm on the side of Dras and Kurn here, honestly.

I mean, editors are strongly discouraged from answering issues completely for stats, since they have an unfair advantage over players. Why should this be different? It's NationStates, you aren't supposed to completely know the results.

On the other hand, it is a range, so you still can't pinpoint it.
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Jutsa
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5129
Founded: Dec 06, 2015
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Jutsa » Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:48 pm

Well, you wouldn't be able to pinpoint it regardless. :P
Here is a list containing a bunch of factbooks I created that are Got Issues? related.
>List of issue ideas
>List of missing issues/options
>List of accepted issues~
^ I know this is hardly a flashy signature, but at least I have one now.

User avatar
Kurnugia
Diplomat
 
Posts: 934
Founded: Feb 21, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby Kurnugia » Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:34 pm

Jutsa wrote:Well, you wouldn't be able to pinpoint it regardless. :P

I could come up with stuff from science and how probability is used to avoid unnecessary tests and if that isn't an advantage I dunno what is :P
Last edited by Kurnugia on Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Big Sister has always been Big Sister


AUTHOR OF ISSUE 1201

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Egyptian Pharocracy
Spokesperson
 
Posts: 144
Founded: Feb 20, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Egyptian Pharocracy » Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:24 pm

Jutsa wrote:Eh true but lets face it, no one's beating some of those head-of-the-line players and I'm pretty sure most of the people who'll see this are GI folks like us,
many of which already have our own personal educated guesses on what options best suit our goals anyway. :lol:


Pretty much. :)

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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9235
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:45 pm

Dwarfpolis wrote:BASED Trotterdam. Based, simply BASED.
I have no idea what that even means.

Dwarfpolis wrote:EDIT: YOU, yes YOU the reader, archive this with archive.is regularly in case this gets taken down
Are you talking about my spoilers, or your image?

If you mean my spoilers, they can't get taken down. They're not on the NationStates server, so it's outside the mods' authority. The most the game staff can do is scramble the game mechanics to make it harder for me to track them in any meaningful way (which would affect even people who aren't using my site), or maybe just IP-ban me personally from the API (which wouldn't stop me from continuing to host the data I already have, though it would gradually grow out-of-date). Even if all my nations were deleted and I was declared delete-on-sight, that would not technically prevent me from continuing to maintain my list (though it might eat away at my motivation to do so). Archiving this site is not useful since the latest information will almost always be the most accurate.

If you mean your image, I hope it does get taken down. I do not appreciate being cursed at.

Chan Island wrote:Unless the oracle at Delphi is back in business, or there is a supercomputer around I don't know about, then no nation is able to exactly predict every outcome of their decisions.
No, but by the same token, nations do have numerous expert advisors as well as ability to reference historical precedent, and don't make decisions based on nothing more than a single paragraph of text to go on.

Chan Island wrote:EDIT: Oh, and since this nation is already basically completely random when it comes to issues, I will enjoy deliberately answering issues in choices that so far the script has not picked up. :p
Thanks! This is helpful. (EDIT: Except that you're a WA member. Oh well.)

Ransium wrote:Since their have been questions about legality, I would like to state unambiguously that what Trotterdam is doing is legal by our site rules (Caveat: Not a techie so I cannot speak to the legality of the script he is using, but the final product is legal.)
You can ask [violet] to check just to be sure, but I have read the script rules and made sure to follow them. Even the "this isn't technically a rule but we'd prefer you did it anyway" ones.

Kurnugia wrote:Here is the thing: As soon as there is a multiplayer aspect, which with the comparative stats you have, you are influencing the enjoyment of other players.
The stated core precept of the game has always been that there is no way to "win" or "lose", and that the point is not about picking the right options but the ones that suit your nation. Using my predictions will enhance that, by ensuring that the nation highest on a ranking is not the one who has the most metagame information on how to raise that ranking, but rather the nation that cares the most about that ranking and is willing to raise it at the expense of other stuff. This is in tune with the original stated intent of the NationStates gameplay experience, even if the existence of rankings does naturally inspire people to try to "win" them.

Currently, the nations that are highest in the leaderboards tend to be the ones with enough experience to already know what issues improve the stats they're interested in, and who are answering based on their own recorded experience. All I'm doing in this regard is make it easier for newbies to compete, rather than the same small handful of people obsessive enough to compile the same data I'm offering without using a script always dominating.

This makes sense. In real life, if a nation passes a new law and it makes crime rates go up or down, it's not going to make this information a state secret that other nations interested in passing a similar law are strictly forbidden from ever looking it. That's just public knowledge and sensible politicians (yeah yeah, oxymoron, I know) will look at other nations' experiences before making a decision.
Last edited by Trotterdam on Mon Apr 09, 2018 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9235
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Mon Apr 09, 2018 5:11 pm

By the way, just now I answered an issue on one of my nations despite being warned of some results I might not like and another option on the issue probably being better, because on contemplation it just made sense and the "better" option wouldn't fit thematically, so it was either this or dismissal.

Turns out the undesirable stats were pretty minor anyway (too small to appear on the game's own after-issue change report).

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Dwarfpolis
Envoy
 
Posts: 262
Founded: Oct 12, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby Dwarfpolis » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:38 pm

Trotterdam wrote:
Dwarfpolis wrote:BASED Trotterdam. Based, simply BASED.
I have no idea what that even means.

Dwarfpolis wrote:EDIT: YOU, yes YOU the reader, archive this with archive.is regularly in case this gets taken down
Are you talking about my spoilers, or your image?

If you mean my spoilers, they can't get taken down. They're not on the NationStates server, so it's outside the mods' authority. The most the game staff can do is scramble the game mechanics to make it harder for me to track them in any meaningful way (which would affect even people who aren't using my site), or maybe just IP-ban me personally from the API (which wouldn't stop me from continuing to host the data I already have, though it would gradually grow out-of-date). Even if all my nations were deleted and I was declared delete-on-sight, that would not technically prevent me from continuing to maintain my list (though it might eat away at my motivation to do so). Archiving this site is not useful since the latest information will almost always be the most accurate.

If you mean your image, I hope it does get taken down. I do not appreciate being cursed at.


What? How did you get cursed at? The archiving was about your work, good job bruh. BASED.
Last edited by Dwarfpolis on Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
You have read this siggy just so you could know that Trotterdam is a real Left-Leaning College State and a real hero

Ok this austerity bit will hurt my intelligence stat a little and this industrial option will bite the environment but it doesn't seem anything to bAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
https://i.imgur.com/KwZK4Mm.jpg

When you finally got out of your good stat depression and the mods will boost your HDI and lifespan into 91+ with the new beta
https://i.imgur.com/C5nuNya.jpg

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Jutsa
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5129
Founded: Dec 06, 2015
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Jutsa » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:19 pm

Naeh, he loves your work so much that he wants everyone to archive it.

I have no idea what "BASED" means either but afaict it's supposed to be a complement.
Here is a list containing a bunch of factbooks I created that are Got Issues? related.
>List of issue ideas
>List of missing issues/options
>List of accepted issues~
^ I know this is hardly a flashy signature, but at least I have one now.

User avatar
Candlewhisper Archive
Senior Issues Editor
 
Posts: 22369
Founded: Aug 28, 2015
Anarchy

Postby Candlewhisper Archive » Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:51 am

Ignoring the noise on this thread, just swung by here to offer my congratulations to Trotterdam. This is an impressive piece of work, and from a personal point of view I think it's really quite cool. That's not an official statement, that's just me saying that I think it's really cool.

As Ransium says, the official line is that its all legal, and there's no party line on approving or disapproving here.

I suspect various betas going live and the continuing updating of stats on the big stat review will cause your data some skew, but that's all part of the fun and games and the challenge, eh?

Anyway, well done.
editors like linguistic ambiguity more than most people

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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9235
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:50 am

Candlewhisper Archive wrote:I suspect various betas going live and the continuing updating of stats on the big stat review will cause your data some skew, but that's all part of the fun and games and the challenge, eh?
The betas aren't much of a problem. The point of being betas is that they're public, and so long as I'm told when they're going live I can take them into account.

The stat review is a bigger problem, since it's happening behind-the-scenes and we don't get told when an issue is updated. But it's mostly an annoyance, I have ways of dealing with it, in theory (the script hasn't been running for long enough out-of-date data to be a real problem yet, so I've put off actually coding that part).

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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9235
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:17 pm

There was a hitch in today's automated upload of the result sheets. Since the only error message I got was "Connection closed", I can't tell what went wrong, but when I noticed the error a few hours later and retried the upload semi-manually, it worked fine, so I assume it was a transient problem.

The actual data-gathering is proceeding without a hitch. There are now fewer than 100 effect lines that I still don't have any data on.

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Jutsa
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5129
Founded: Dec 06, 2015
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Jutsa » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:41 pm

I'm going to guess at least three of them are from 911. ;)
Here is a list containing a bunch of factbooks I created that are Got Issues? related.
>List of issue ideas
>List of missing issues/options
>List of accepted issues~
^ I know this is hardly a flashy signature, but at least I have one now.

User avatar
Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9235
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:00 pm

Jutsa wrote:I'm going to guess at least three of them are from 911. ;)
Well, technically, I don't "have" or "not have" data from #911 until I confirm which effect lines are actually on #911, which I can't do until I've seen the issue.

But if I check the effect lines that I suspect are from #911, then... well, close, but not quite :) Of the four effect lines, two have no data, one has one 1 data point, and one ("citizens have an obligation to remain silent and anything they say may be used against them") has 39 data points. Clearly there's some imbalance in option desirability. If that option weren't so overwhelmingly preferred, I would probably have had data on all four by now.

This data is not currently visible on the public site, but as soon as I formally add #911, it'll retroactively become available.

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Valentine Z
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 10074
Founded: Nov 08, 2015
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Valentine Z » Wed Apr 11, 2018 6:26 pm

I am pretty much applauding at this feat. Very very nice work, Trotterdam! :D

I think we have to be aware that this is based on hard statistics and while there's an average and a rough estimate, there's always going to be a nation that have different results becase of a nation's classification and other issues' choices. And for those that talked about how this spoils the game, well, we can simply not use it. I for one welcome this as someone who uses the NSStats to the core.


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