Raiding - What Now?
Posted: Sun Aug 29, 2021 3:27 am
An essay. Parts 1, 2 and 4 are based off a textwall I DMed Queen Yuno on Discord yesterday, shortly after Chitral was restored to power in Liberal Democratic Union. Part 3 is original.
Part 1: Raiding - What Now?
In 2020, Roavin complained that update bending made liberations impossible - yet there have been at least five this year (Japan, North Africa, Prima Victoria, Chaylia, and Liberal Democratic Union - which was retaken yesterday), as well as at least two pre-emptively thwarted raids in Australiasim and The United Caribbean Island Alliance. The only occupations I can remember that lasted more than a day or so were Genua (which gave us the largest update jump EVER), a couple of other fashbashes, Moomin Valley (LWU) and possibly Alnobia.
Raiding has entered a downwards spiral since Jakker was forced out of the Council of Hawks around the start of this year (although that particular scandal was by no means what started the collapse). There have been a few successes, but 2021 has on the whole been nowhere near as good as 2020 for raiders, and vice versa.
Compare and contrast: Dakota, a former CoH member, became a defender for the Rejected Realms Army a few weeks/months ago. Refuge Isle, also formerly of TBH, became a defender last year and has so far been pretty prolific. I can name you any number of other active (non-convert) defenders right now!
Phoenix is 2021's most high-profile convert to raiding so far; she's a nice person and she's doing a pretty good job in TBH, but she attempted to start her own raider region called The Incan Empire this spring which never really got off the ground. There are also many raiders, but they haven't really been as notable recently - see, for example, how almost nobody has posted on the TBH thread in recent months.
Part 2: Defending and Liberation Today
The most recent and infamous example I could possibly show you is The Grey Wardens' report on the Lib Dem Union liberation. You may have noticed that the occupation was supported by NPA, EPSA, TBH, LWU, Lily and Thaecia... the liberation was supported by all the big defender militaries - including JTF who are currently defending - plus TWPAF (independent) and Sonindia (who are defenders but not very famous ones).
TGW also thank "super cool mercenaries Westinor, Dax, and Galiantus and more!" Westinor used to be an NPA person (I think they were anyway); Dax was (like Dakota) a former CoH/TBH person; Galiantus's involvement in the Anti-Pacific Coalition that wanted to topple the NPO on New Years' Day 2019 led to the collapse of the APC entirely.
Now look at how close the final score was - I think the raiders would still be in charge of LDU right now if they still had the converts on their side, but getting more defenders to not defend probably isn't a sustainable answer to the question of "how can we actually make big piles actually competitive?"!
Chaylia had the usual suspects plus Europeia (whose Republican Navy is usually panned as too raider-y for an independent org), Founderless (a sillier, fashbashier FRA), and Alvarez (most famous for sending a tag:wa recruitment telegram a couple of months ago) - again, the same story.
Part 3: How Not to Skirt the Issue
TSP's report, issued by HumanSanity, cites Founderless and Alvarez as having taken part in the LDU liberation, too. It is apparent that, with largely (but not exactly) the same contingent of regions as in Chaylia, the liberation force in the LDU boasted almost twenty more troops - and the invading force, twenty-five more. (There could be many reasons for this increased motivation on either side; I do not claim to know what they are.)
HumanSanity's report contains many facts. Unfortunately - and unlike TGW's report - it also contains much speculation. It compares the infiltration operation in the LDU to three Black Hawks' attempt to swing an internal regional vote in favour of Commend Twobagger, which led to the proscription of all Black Hawks from TSP. Yet the Hawks in question were eligible to vote, and - unlike in LDU - posed no serious threat to any region's native government. It also points to Miravana's flip-flop in Nasunia, despite the fact that the raid in LDU did not similarly have its origins as a defence or liberation.
From this, HumanSanity concludes that the LDU occupation was "doomed to failure, as with their many previous attempts at deception, espionage, and subversion against sovereign regions." However, no occupation is ever guaranteed to fail (or succeed). At the end of the day, there were more defenders than raiders in LDU. The best way to prevent this from happening in future, and for more occupations to succeed, is for there to be more able, willing, timely - and legal - raiders.
The report later argues that the liberation was a win for "the forces of peace and democracy," and asserts that defenders "can rise to meet and exceed the challenge to continue the current era of peace and prosperity for founderless regions across NationStates." The best ways for founderless regions to be and remain successful is to recruit, to move to a foundered community, or - if proposed reforms are enacted - to declare themselves a Stronghold with a founder. Defenders have limited resources and cannot be expected to protect every major founderless region, no matter how many raiders there are to swoop upon them. (It is broadly true that many defender regions are democratic and many raider regions are not.)
HumanSanity follows up by claiming that "our enemies in raider regions are growing ever stronger." Raiders are no "stronger" than they were six months ago (although they should be) - the LDU occupation lasted about as long as the Chaylia occupation despite there being many more raiders there. Tag raiders were almost anonymous for most of this spring. Defenders, meanwhile, have been consistent and persistent in their detagging and liberation this year.
HumanSanity's claims are presented as if they were iron-clad laws of global governance. They are not, and it is disappointing to see that no raider organisation has challenged them at all up to now. If raiders are losing on the battlefield, then they are - unfortunately - barely even trying in the press office. (Many people older and wiser than myself probably have something to say about the decline of conflict in gameplay and its replacement with socialisation and such of the like.)
Part 4: Possible Solutions to Definite Problems
It appears that many regions appear to be attracted towards defending and few towards raiding. Osiris, the only non-specialist raider-only region I can think of, has neither been too active nor too high-profile. There are plenty of independents too, but as we've seen - and by definition - they raid and defend according to their regional interest.
That's our first problem: as I said in Part 3, defenders have numbers, and raiders - for the most part - don't. (Impeccable timing could also play a part in ensuring that raiders have little to no time to eject liberators, however.) Perhaps currently demilitarised regions could set up their own raider militaries and help out larger organisations where possible, for example. As we saw with Phoenix's attempt a few months ago, success is by no means guaranteed, but nor is failure if the right experience - which can easily be obtained from many currently-active raider organisations today - and organisation is in place.
Problem 2: defenders are VERY organised (and not in the sense of "having a rank system;" raiders have ranks, too). Libcord has its own Update Command and is by this point mandatory for almost any would-be defender. Raiders have no similar initiatives, although they do still have their own ops servers. The great interregional military alliances are long dead, and Libcord is the only thing resembling that on either side. At this point, Raider Unity - even within reason - is much closer to an ideal than it is to standard operating practice; I'm not saying there needs to be a Raidcord, but raiders and raider-aligned militaries do need to get their act together, start co-operating more deeply and more often.
Problem 3: defending is sexy... raiding isn't. This is a classic PR problem that most of you don't need to be reminded about. To use the two most famous examples from the defender sphere, TGW in particular is infamously happy-go-lucky (although I'm not saying "blame Tim for raiding not being very good in 2021!") and call raiders "darkspawn;" the Ten Thousand Islands Treaty Organisation is famous for its good old fashioned moralism, although it has loosened up in recent months. What's the difference between all of the raider and raider-aligned orgs bouncing around these days (apart from the odd no-griefing policy or two)? There needs to be at least something for everyone who wants to raid.
This is much of the reason why raiders are losing - not all of it, but quite a fair bit. However, there is no reason why anybody should treat the current status quo as being inevitable. If people start acting - not just thinking - like it isn't, then maybe we could actually get "proper" occupations that actually last for a few days soon. From then on, who knows?
Part 1: Raiding - What Now?
In 2020, Roavin complained that update bending made liberations impossible - yet there have been at least five this year (Japan, North Africa, Prima Victoria, Chaylia, and Liberal Democratic Union - which was retaken yesterday), as well as at least two pre-emptively thwarted raids in Australiasim and The United Caribbean Island Alliance. The only occupations I can remember that lasted more than a day or so were Genua (which gave us the largest update jump EVER), a couple of other fashbashes, Moomin Valley (LWU) and possibly Alnobia.
Raiding has entered a downwards spiral since Jakker was forced out of the Council of Hawks around the start of this year (although that particular scandal was by no means what started the collapse). There have been a few successes, but 2021 has on the whole been nowhere near as good as 2020 for raiders, and vice versa.
Compare and contrast: Dakota, a former CoH member, became a defender for the Rejected Realms Army a few weeks/months ago. Refuge Isle, also formerly of TBH, became a defender last year and has so far been pretty prolific. I can name you any number of other active (non-convert) defenders right now!
Phoenix is 2021's most high-profile convert to raiding so far; she's a nice person and she's doing a pretty good job in TBH, but she attempted to start her own raider region called The Incan Empire this spring which never really got off the ground. There are also many raiders, but they haven't really been as notable recently - see, for example, how almost nobody has posted on the TBH thread in recent months.
Part 2: Defending and Liberation Today
The most recent and infamous example I could possibly show you is The Grey Wardens' report on the Lib Dem Union liberation. You may have noticed that the occupation was supported by NPA, EPSA, TBH, LWU, Lily and Thaecia... the liberation was supported by all the big defender militaries - including JTF who are currently defending - plus TWPAF (independent) and Sonindia (who are defenders but not very famous ones).
TGW also thank "super cool mercenaries Westinor, Dax, and Galiantus and more!" Westinor used to be an NPA person (I think they were anyway); Dax was (like Dakota) a former CoH/TBH person; Galiantus's involvement in the Anti-Pacific Coalition that wanted to topple the NPO on New Years' Day 2019 led to the collapse of the APC entirely.
Now look at how close the final score was - I think the raiders would still be in charge of LDU right now if they still had the converts on their side, but getting more defenders to not defend probably isn't a sustainable answer to the question of "how can we actually make big piles actually competitive?"!
Chaylia had the usual suspects plus Europeia (whose Republican Navy is usually panned as too raider-y for an independent org), Founderless (a sillier, fashbashier FRA), and Alvarez (most famous for sending a tag:wa recruitment telegram a couple of months ago) - again, the same story.
Part 3: How Not to Skirt the Issue
TSP's report, issued by HumanSanity, cites Founderless and Alvarez as having taken part in the LDU liberation, too. It is apparent that, with largely (but not exactly) the same contingent of regions as in Chaylia, the liberation force in the LDU boasted almost twenty more troops - and the invading force, twenty-five more. (There could be many reasons for this increased motivation on either side; I do not claim to know what they are.)
HumanSanity's report contains many facts. Unfortunately - and unlike TGW's report - it also contains much speculation. It compares the infiltration operation in the LDU to three Black Hawks' attempt to swing an internal regional vote in favour of Commend Twobagger, which led to the proscription of all Black Hawks from TSP. Yet the Hawks in question were eligible to vote, and - unlike in LDU - posed no serious threat to any region's native government. It also points to Miravana's flip-flop in Nasunia, despite the fact that the raid in LDU did not similarly have its origins as a defence or liberation.
From this, HumanSanity concludes that the LDU occupation was "doomed to failure, as with their many previous attempts at deception, espionage, and subversion against sovereign regions." However, no occupation is ever guaranteed to fail (or succeed). At the end of the day, there were more defenders than raiders in LDU. The best way to prevent this from happening in future, and for more occupations to succeed, is for there to be more able, willing, timely - and legal - raiders.
The report later argues that the liberation was a win for "the forces of peace and democracy," and asserts that defenders "can rise to meet and exceed the challenge to continue the current era of peace and prosperity for founderless regions across NationStates." The best ways for founderless regions to be and remain successful is to recruit, to move to a foundered community, or - if proposed reforms are enacted - to declare themselves a Stronghold with a founder. Defenders have limited resources and cannot be expected to protect every major founderless region, no matter how many raiders there are to swoop upon them. (It is broadly true that many defender regions are democratic and many raider regions are not.)
HumanSanity follows up by claiming that "our enemies in raider regions are growing ever stronger." Raiders are no "stronger" than they were six months ago (although they should be) - the LDU occupation lasted about as long as the Chaylia occupation despite there being many more raiders there. Tag raiders were almost anonymous for most of this spring. Defenders, meanwhile, have been consistent and persistent in their detagging and liberation this year.
HumanSanity's claims are presented as if they were iron-clad laws of global governance. They are not, and it is disappointing to see that no raider organisation has challenged them at all up to now. If raiders are losing on the battlefield, then they are - unfortunately - barely even trying in the press office. (Many people older and wiser than myself probably have something to say about the decline of conflict in gameplay and its replacement with socialisation and such of the like.)
Part 4: Possible Solutions to Definite Problems
It appears that many regions appear to be attracted towards defending and few towards raiding. Osiris, the only non-specialist raider-only region I can think of, has neither been too active nor too high-profile. There are plenty of independents too, but as we've seen - and by definition - they raid and defend according to their regional interest.
That's our first problem: as I said in Part 3, defenders have numbers, and raiders - for the most part - don't. (Impeccable timing could also play a part in ensuring that raiders have little to no time to eject liberators, however.) Perhaps currently demilitarised regions could set up their own raider militaries and help out larger organisations where possible, for example. As we saw with Phoenix's attempt a few months ago, success is by no means guaranteed, but nor is failure if the right experience - which can easily be obtained from many currently-active raider organisations today - and organisation is in place.
Problem 2: defenders are VERY organised (and not in the sense of "having a rank system;" raiders have ranks, too). Libcord has its own Update Command and is by this point mandatory for almost any would-be defender. Raiders have no similar initiatives, although they do still have their own ops servers. The great interregional military alliances are long dead, and Libcord is the only thing resembling that on either side. At this point, Raider Unity - even within reason - is much closer to an ideal than it is to standard operating practice; I'm not saying there needs to be a Raidcord, but raiders and raider-aligned militaries do need to get their act together, start co-operating more deeply and more often.
Problem 3: defending is sexy... raiding isn't. This is a classic PR problem that most of you don't need to be reminded about. To use the two most famous examples from the defender sphere, TGW in particular is infamously happy-go-lucky (although I'm not saying "blame Tim for raiding not being very good in 2021!") and call raiders "darkspawn;" the Ten Thousand Islands Treaty Organisation is famous for its good old fashioned moralism, although it has loosened up in recent months. What's the difference between all of the raider and raider-aligned orgs bouncing around these days (apart from the odd no-griefing policy or two)? There needs to be at least something for everyone who wants to raid.
This is much of the reason why raiders are losing - not all of it, but quite a fair bit. However, there is no reason why anybody should treat the current status quo as being inevitable. If people start acting - not just thinking - like it isn't, then maybe we could actually get "proper" occupations that actually last for a few days soon. From then on, who knows?