Curious Observations | Diplomatic Isolation

[The Church of Satan]

I stand corrected.

[Twins of Hearts]

-snip-

I'd consider your words at all but you're even less trustworthy than EW.

Ah. You just smeared the Rahls, and yet you rely on their “evidence” to smear me still. So which side of the coin is it this hour, Satan?

[The Church of Satan]

Ah. You just smeared the Rahls, and yet you rely on their “evidence” to smear me still. So which side of the coin is it this hour, Satan?

Dude I have the same evidence they do. It's been on my phone for quite some time. Heck I got it from one of your victims. Don't make this about you. You are entirely irrelevant for good reason.

[Twins of Hearts]

Ah. You just smeared the Rahls, and yet you rely on their “evidence” to smear me still. So which side of the coin is it this hour, Satan?

Dude I have the same evidence they do. It's been on my phone for quite some time. Heck I got it from one of your victims. Don't make this about you. You are entirely irrelevant for good reason.

Ah, ad hominem attacks. Quite an evolved response. Is this where I say "No u?" For someone not making it about me, talking about an allegation (4 years old at this point, and 4 years resolved) that never was and holding pictures of it for 4 years, perhaps you are hoping to make this about me?

No, its about you, being consistently wrong and trying to shout down or become belligerent in EVERY topic area you engage in. Heck, at this point you are the wrong end of a compass needle for me (and I speculate also many others),pointing opposite the direction I should endeavor in!

Would it truly harm you to have a bit more control over your outbursts and aggressive insults?

The subject of EVil Wolf is so derailed at this point that Roavins original message is lost in all the fuss you have kicked up with various people. I think Evil Wolf enjoys this much, getting forgotten behind the feathers flying.

[The Church of Satan]

Ah, ad hominem attacks. Quite an evolved response. Is this where I say "No u?" For someone not making it about me, talking about an allegation (4 years old at this point, and 4 years resolved) that never was and holding pictures of it for 4 years, perhaps you are hoping to make this about me?

No, its about you, being consistently wrong and trying to shout down or become belligerent in EVERY topic area you engage in. Heck, at this point you are the wrong end of a compass needle for me (and I speculate also many others),pointing opposite the direction I should endeavor in!

Would it truly harm you to have a bit more control over your outbursts and aggressive insults?

The subject of EVil Wolf is so derailed at this point that Roavins original message is lost in all the fuss you have kicked up with various people. I think Evil Wolf enjoys this much, getting forgotten behind the feathers flying.

Riiiiight, I'm not gonna get into this with you of all people. I have self-respect.

[Curious Observations]

Diplomatic Isolation

Not too long ago, the New Pacific Order, the North Pacific, and the West Pacific released a joint "Statement On Continued Interregional Peace", signalling an intent to retaliate against anyone that attacks any one of them or their protectorates. While the statement itself didn't mention who it's about, it's obviously about the Brotherhood of Malice. To make an analogy, imagine Xoriet, Pallaith, and Giovanniland jumping around and pointing their middle-fingers at a big neon-lit sign (with three letters spelling "BoM") while holding one finger vertically across their mouths and winking - that's basically what that statement is. But at a deeper level, it truly is a powerful and strong statement, much more so than one would expect from particularly the North Pacific or the post-Aleisyr New Pacific Order.

So, let's talk about the Brotherhood of Malice, reincarnated. They are a raider organization, and quickly rose to be arguably the strongest by several metrics.Strong enough even to finally force The Black Hawks into playing second fiddle, to the immense pleasure of my defender heart (and surely many leaders of smaller raider organizations over the past half decade). What also sets BoM apart is that they don't pretend to be anything else than the villains, something that TBH and, to a much lesser extent, Lone Wolves United have tried to play off with certain spheres (particularly the Manifesto-Independent one). Of course, that leads to more regions being pissed off and seeking consequences, logically, and that's what this article is about.

Diplomatic isolation. It's a simple idea - as a consequence of something, a region is shut off from communication or relations, limiting their options. But with the exception of regions whose deeper persuasions are deemed to be unsavory across the mainstream, it's a tool that is rarely used. The reason here is simple: unlike in another (less virtual) universe that the participants of the NationStates universe are familiar with, here the consequences are often somewhat limited in terms of direct effect. Nations won't starve and CTE because of diplomatic isolation, for one, and most regions worth explicitly isolating are big enough to keep trudging on in some fashion.

This is part of why it didn't work against the New Pacific Order in late 2018 and throughout 2019. The Anti-Pacific Coalition, while .... intentioned, mostly lacked competence to do what it actually wanted to do, and when it did have the competence, it was in a very volatile and inconsistent form. To be fair, they were also facing off against the best Foreign Affairs individual around, but even without that the odds were stacked against them. The NPO was able to hunker down, keep its TEP alliance throughout, and began forming new diplomatic relations again not too long after. Neither friend nor foe can deny that NPO's approach to the Miniluv exposés in late 2018 worked incredibly well for them (even if I'm somewhat miffed because I was excited for the fireworks that never came).

APC could have done much better here, but they didn't because they completely overlooked a window of opportunity: diplomatic isolation in the first degree only goes so far. But where it gets interesting is when this isolation is applied to the second degree as well, i.e. not just the target region but any region associating with it. The East Pacific stuck with the New Pacific Order throughout the ordeal, in part because they didn't need to disassociate. Had the APC regions gone for second degree isolation, particularly in those first few months, that would have put enough of a squeeze on the East Pacific that they would have dropped their relationship with NPO as well. They would have had to make the hard choice between being only allied to NPO exclusively, or still have relations with everyone else. And if TEP stuck to NPO after all, then the APC regions would have very reasonably been able to claim that TEP values a region that attacked several APC regions more than it values any of the APC regions.

Now, some APC members did try to introduce second-degree isolation much later, but at that moment, the window of opportunity had already passed. The hype was gone. Because there is another tool, a multiplier for everything else, and something that should be a permanent fixture in the thoughts of any competent FA person: timing. Ironically, a wonderful example of good timing is the very thing that kickstarted the existence of the APC: the collection of Miniluv exposés I mentioned earlier. Any single one of them would have been awkward but manageable for Aleisyr and Pergamon, but what broke the proverbial camel's back was that all this information came out within just a few days of one another. And that was also the start of APC's missed window opportunity: within those first few months, when everybody was repealing their treaties with NPO, a formalized second-degree isolation (as part of the APC treaty that so many regions passed) could have been used to fantastic effect, and significantly hampered NPO's ability to bounce back into mainstream acceptance.

Putting this all together, here is a set of criteria to determine when using second-degree isolation should be considered:

1. An associate of an associate is an aggressor.
2. The associate has either not disavowed the aggression very strongly or at all.
3. The isolation would significantly impact the associate (for example by removing most of its diplomatic network).
4. The participants imposing diplomatic isolation can initiate it within a similar timeframe.

So, why am I talking about diplomatic isolation? Because BoM isn't NPO. BoM doesn't have portal technology into other universes, like the New Pacific Order does. And while BoM's intrinsic military strength is huge (larger than any other single org, one could reasonably argue), they do still work with other organizations for logistical support. Also, BoM has much more cross-membership with other places than the NPO did, including with those that could initiate diplomatic isolation or be affected by it through the second degree. While not as vulnerable as other raider organizations, BoM is still significantly more vulnerable to the effects of diplomatic isolation than the NPO ever was.

"But why", I hear you asking, "aren't regions doing this?" — Well ... it takes some proverbial balls, due to the network of extant relationships of those regions that would impose this sanction, because doing so in the second degree will likely mean that a region or two with good diplomatic relations has to be cut loose and isolated as well.

Let me show you what I mean. I made a graph of the extant diplomatic relationships between a deliberate selection of regions:



Do you see it?

(Before I go on, Quebecshire, keep your pants on: I'm not about to argue for "OFO delenda est" or anything of the sort.)

Let’s assume NPO, TWP, and TNP are considering diplomatic isolation for BoM. We can go through the tests I outlined above and see whether it’s reasonable.

First, BoM is allied with Osiris, which TWP and TNP are diplomatically bound to, so it applies. Second, I’m told Osiris has basically just stayed out of it, neither avowing nor disavowing BoM’s actions. Given that we’re talking about multiple region raids and a region taken, it’s reasonable to consider this not enough.

Third, the isolation would significantly impact Osiris’ diplomatic network, if Osiris were to stick with BoM. TNP and TWP would be directly gone, of course. TRR would be difficult due to crossmemberships and Laz would be difficult due to the Mandate 12’s historic connection to Osiris, but some changes could likely be achieved with solid diplomacy work (which NPO/TWP/TNP are capable of), or even the blatant move of third-degree isolation (though neither region, especially not TRR, would appreciate that). And Caer Sidi … well, sorry Aynia, but CS’ GP relevance isn’t what it used to be. The isolation would also affect the relationship between TWP and TCB, but given that TCB has doubled down with BoM at every turn (and just recently has also lost its relationships with TL, Europeia, Balder, Thaecia, and the New Pacific Order), I would wager that this wouldn’t be a big loss for TWP..

And finally, can the participants do this in a similar timeframe? Considering the three of them are already working together, yes.

So, in conclusion, we know that the New Pacific Order, the North Pacific, and the West Pacific are working on a new treaty to respond to the Brotherhood of Malice. Their statement of intent was uncharacteristically strong, so it stands to reason that they want the provisions in that treaty to be strong. I don’t know what they have planned, but my suggestion to them, or anybody else in similar circumstances, is to consider diplomatic isolation beyond the first degree. The worst case scenario is that they lose their relationships with Osiris, but only if Osiris explicitly chooses to prefer their brand new relationship with BoM over their much more established relationships — and in that case, are they really losing anything of value?

[Free Algerstonia]

babe wake up new curious observations post just dropped

[Ikania]

Curious.

[Lord Dominator]

As a point of interest, what level of diplomatic severing are you proposing that the trio ask of Osiris with regard to Malice - obviously they have a treaty, but are you proposing measures beyond that, such as bans on cooperation, diplomacy in general, or citizenship?

On a different tact, if the trio were to propose one of those items and Osiris did as such, would you agree it reasonable that Osiris ask for their support (to a similar level at minimum) to attacks on Osiris?

An internet analysis in any case, if deliberately based on a scenario that may very well come not to pass.

[Curious Observations]

Thank you for the engaging reply, LD!

As a point of interest, what level of diplomatic severing are you proposing that the trio ask of Osiris with regard to Malice - obviously they have a treaty, but are you proposing measures beyond that, such as bans on cooperation, diplomacy in general, or citizenship?

I'd say it depends on what the trio's specific goals are, which I don't know. Furthermore, while I do have some additional thoughts, they're not fully thought through, so that's why I didn't go into detail on these specifics; besides, they don't have too much bearing on the principal idea of diplomatic isolation.

On a different tact, if the trio were to propose one of those items and Osiris did as such, would you agree it reasonable that Osiris ask for their support (to a similar level at minimum) to attacks on Osiris?

Yes, I agree, that is reasonable.

An internet analysis in any case, if deliberately based on a scenario that may very well come not to pass.

Indeed. It's just a thought that has been floating in my head for a month or two, and I figured I'd take the time and write it out. I don't think I'm publishing anything necessarily groundbreaking here, or anything that a competent FA person wouldn't deduce on their own given the situation, and the trio may well have good reasons not to pursue this avenue.

It's just a mildly spicy idea, with a bit of data and history to justify it, no more or less.

[RiderSyl]

So, in lieu of TWP and Osiris taking a recent issue into private rather than making it the spectacle defenders were hoping for, we get an article on how TWP and their treaty allies should just be making the exact spectacle defenders are hoping for anyway.

This is either a helluva coincidence or y'all need to stop trying to force this to happen.

[Honeydewistania]

Well written and researched article (as always), and is definitely food for thought.

[Curious Observations]

So, in lieu of TWP and Osiris taking a recent issue into private rather than making it the spectacle defenders were hoping for, we get an article on how TWP and their treaty allies should just be making the exact spectacle defenders are hoping for anyway.

This is either a helluva coincidence or y'all need to stop trying to force this to happen.

If that was my goal, wouldn't I have mentioned the incident specifically in the article?

And I'm not entirely certain what incident specifically you're referring to (though I have an educated guess). As I said before (and have mentioned in DMs to others), I've had the basics of this article in my head for a month or two, presumably well before the incident you're referring to.

[Quebecshire]

So, in lieu of TWP and Osiris taking a recent issue into private rather than making it the spectacle defenders were hoping for, we get an article on how TWP and their treaty allies should just be making the exact spectacle defenders are hoping for anyway.

This is either a helluva coincidence or y'all need to stop trying to force this to happen.

Nobody is forcing anything to happen. I’m assuming you’re associating this to the obvious low effort stuff in the Osiris thread, but come on. There’s no reason to believe Roavin wrote this on a random whim yesterday (because he didn’t) or to complement low effort bait (which I’m not even sure he’s read) in the Osiris thread.

I’m more than confident that a feeder (one with a pretty stern backbone and a strong FA portfolio at that) can handle its own affairs and make its own decisions going forward.

Not everything is a coordinated grand defender conspiracy.

[Aynia Moreaux]

This is something that has crossed my mind, and considering I've had to move much more delicately diplomatically lately, it does potentially put CS in a pickle. It's a bit of a relief that CS is largely distant now from gameplay, as we can focus on other forms of relationships, but as far as gameplay is concerned, it's really just a few people and our reputation. CS is just largely a wholesome bunch that just want to interact and have fun. I've not put a lot of focus onto our military and TAC is not the same animal it once was. I've turned my focus to just friendly relations and a cultural aspect.

I think it's also something that I've kicked around and struggled with, how involved should a region like CS get into the gameplay aspect, and especially the r/d aspect, considering things like diplomatic isolation as you were talking about. I think you explained it well and made some good points. Diplomatic isolation can have far reaching implications, and implications for regions who just try to play friendly with everyone.

[Scottiesland]

So, in lieu of TWP and Osiris taking a recent issue into private rather than making it the spectacle defenders were hoping for, we get an article on how TWP and their treaty allies should just be making the exact spectacle defenders are hoping for anyway.

This is either a helluva coincidence or y'all need to stop trying to force this to happen.

Nobody is forcing anything to happen. I’m assuming you’re associating this to the obvious low effort stuff in the Osiris thread, but come on. There’s no reason to believe Roavin wrote this on a random whim yesterday (because he didn’t) or to complement low effort bait (which I’m not even sure he’s read) in the Osiris thread.

I’m more than confident that a feeder (one with a pretty stern backbone and a strong FA portfolio at that) can handle its own affairs and make its own decisions going forward.

Not everything is a coordinated grand defender conspiracy.

Sounds like something a grand defender conspirator would say! Aha! /s

[RiderSyl]

So, in lieu of TWP and Osiris taking a recent issue into private rather than making it the spectacle defenders were hoping for, we get an article on how TWP and their treaty allies should just be making the exact spectacle defenders are hoping for anyway.

This is either a helluva coincidence or y'all need to stop trying to force this to happen.

If that was my goal, wouldn't I have mentioned the incident specifically in the article?

And I'm not entirely certain what incident specifically you're referring to (though I have an educated guess). As I said before (and have mentioned in DMs to others), I've had the basics of this article in my head for a month or two, presumably well before the incident you're referring to.

Oh, okay. "A helluva coincidence" it is, then.

Not everything is a coordinated grand defender conspiracy.

Now, see, I was willing to admit that it's coincidence and leave it at that, but with the way you've made it seem like I was crazy to associate the two, I feel like I need to defend my reasoning.

Two days in a row of Osiris's relationship with Malice in the spotlight in different ways, both brought to the spotlight by defenders. You've jumped at similar (arguably less) correlation before.

[The Sygian]

Well written and researched article (as always), and is definitely food for thought.

No, not really.

[Sandaoguo]

Only somewhat related but still hot take, GP politics and R/D would be so much more interesting if regions just picked raider or defender. Flip flop if you want for the occasional drama, but middle of road stuff is so boring, stifles meaningful diplomacy, and muddies the sliver of purpose NSGP has. Raider infighting would weaken themselves, allowing defenders to possibly benefit from a lack of coordination and concentrated recruitment, and vice versa. Instead of this dumb “diplomacy” where some defenders are extending olive branches to anti-BoM regions like Europeia in the hopes that it will lock those regions into the path to defenderdom (or at the very least, temporarily boost updaters in Libcord).

GP diplomacy is stupidly zero-sum, all strategy is focused on flipping existing regions to the other alignment. But there’s vastly more nations outside of GP regions, there’s no strategic need to compromise and sacrifice ideological positions to win over an existing region.

[Honeydewistania]

Well written and researched article (as always), and is definitely food for thought.

No, not really.

Actually, yes really.

[RiderSyl]

Only somewhat related but still hot take, GP politics and R/D would be so much more interesting if regions just picked raider or defender. Flip flop if you want for the occasional drama, but middle of road stuff is so boring, stifles meaningful diplomacy, and muddies the sliver of purpose NSGP has. Raider infighting would weaken themselves, allowing defenders to possibly benefit from a lack of coordination and concentrated recruitment, and vice versa. Instead of this dumb “diplomacy” where some defenders are extending olive branches to anti-BoM regions like Europeia in the hopes that it will lock those regions into the path to defenderdom (or at the very least, temporarily boost updaters in Libcord).

GP diplomacy is stupidly zero-sum, all strategy is focused on flipping existing regions to the other alignment. But there’s vastly more nations outside of GP regions, there’s no strategic need to compromise and sacrifice ideological positions to win over an existing region.

See, the fact middle-of-the-road stuff is politically boring is exactly why I love it.

[The North Polish Union]

A blatant work of propagandic wishful thinking from a notably partisan author which ignores practical realities in favor of an ideologist's dream-world in order to advocate for a conclusion that is most favorable to the writer's faction.

At least Unibot was interesting at times.

[Goobergunchia]

Diplomatic isolation. It's a simple idea - as a consequence of something, a region is shut off from communication or relations, limiting their options. But with the exception of regions whose deeper persuasions are deemed to be unsavory across the mainstream, it's a tool that is rarely used. The reason here is simple: unlike in another (less virtual) universe that the participants of the NationStates universe are familiar with, here the consequences are often somewhat limited in terms of direct effect. Nations won't starve and CTE because of diplomatic isolation, for one, and most regions worth explicitly isolating are big enough to keep trudging on in some fashion.

A point worth underlining. The ADN and allied forces were initially highly able to keep Francos Spain's NPO diplomatically isolated (and its aims on the other feeders didn't help). But eventually it became apparent that the NPO wasn't going to be dislodged by force and regions (notably, the Meritocracy) began reach1ng out to them. Ultimately it's very difficult to get a major region permanently cut off, particularly from those who are politically sympathetic.

[Unibot III]

My impression is that today’s defenders, while excited about further divisions and the impact of BoM’s isolation, are overlooking the significance of TNP partnering with NPO.

NPO and TNP have rarely been friendly. TNP broke with independents to oppose NLO and rejected shared membership in SovCon.

Looks to me like NPO and TNP both see an advantage in striking a sort-of Neo-Independentist alliance that could challenge the defending world for political and cultural influence.